经历一轮超额不佳和规模回撤的考验后，量化私募行业正在稳步复苏。 据券商中国记者了解，近期九坤等多家头部量化逐步开放募资，并备案发行新产品，宽德、量派等私募则 迎来一轮规模的快速扩张，各大渠道均在力推量化策略，今年以来量化产品销售再度升温。 多家机构人士告诉券商中国记者，当前量化行业已从粗放扩张转向结构优化阶段，在管理规模尚未恢复历 史峰值的背景下，头部机构正通过产品线重塑、募资节奏把控等策略构建发展新范式。 九坤在渠道的沟通中称，今年很多三年期产品都要到期，会有一些获利赎回，整体规模会有些下降，所以 在这过程中我们将适当补充一些，目前九坤的管理规模在600亿元，今年将在A500适当募资，打造大票策 略线。 据QIML最新一期管理人规模图谱显示，量化四巨头分别是幻方量化、九坤投资、明汯投资、衍复投资， 管理规模为600亿～700亿元。量化四巨头中，今年明汯、衍复等保持稳定的发行节奏，今年以来分别备 案了16只、17只产品，九坤在3月底备案了3只产品，幻方则仍然没有开放募资，上一次新备案产品还要 追溯至2023年。 规模扩张最快的当属宽德投资，今年以来宽德已经备案发行了76只产品，成为行业当之无愧的"产品发行 一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent downturn in micro-cap stocks, which had previously led the market rally, is attributed to multiple factors including regulatory changes, earnings concerns, and market dynamics [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Wind micro-cap stock index saw a year-to-date increase of over 20% until March 20, 2023, but faced significant pullbacks afterward, impacting related funds [3]. - Funds heavily invested in micro-cap stocks experienced an average gain of 12.72% from the beginning of the year to March 20, followed by an average decline of nearly 3% in the subsequent week [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Micro-Cap Stocks - The new delisting regulations are causing concerns about the stability of smaller companies, leading to fears of potential delistings or ST (special treatment) designations [4]. - There are worries regarding annual report performance, as the effects of economic stabilization policies may take time to reflect in company earnings, prompting early sell-offs by investors [4]. - The significant prior gains in micro-cap stocks have led to a decline in valuations as investor risk appetite decreases [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent adjustments in micro-cap stocks are partly attributed to a calendar effect, with April being a peak month for annual report releases and potential delistings [4]. - The volatility in micro-cap stocks is seen as a normal part of market fluctuations, although the current environment and technological advancements have made this period different from early 2024 [5]. - Concerns about high-frequency trading and quantitative strategies exacerbating market declines are noted, but some experts argue that these strategies can also provide liquidity and stabilize the market [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Fund managers are innovating strategies to manage volatility, such as maintaining a constant stock-bond ratio and employing barbell strategies to balance portfolios [11]. - There is recognition of the long-term investment value in micro-cap stocks, as many are overlooked and may contain significant growth potential [12][13]. - The current economic transition and technological advancements present opportunities for micro-cap stocks in sectors like AI, semiconductor equipment, and automation [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the A-share market, which has shown some support after a pullback from high levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3370, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2][3] - The article discusses the strong performance of heavyweight stocks and related industries, which have provided significant support to the index during this volatile period, while the semiconductor and technology sectors have seen a decrease in momentum [3][4] - Concerns about the U.S. economy's stagnation have increased following the release of economic data such as the PCE, leading to a significant pullback in U.S. stocks, with the market remaining sensitive to negative news and risk factors [2][4] Group 2 - The article outlines a quantitative strategy allocation perspective, favoring the Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy over overseas equity strategies and enhanced equity fund strategies, indicating a preference for defensive investment approaches in the current market environment [3][5] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy has recorded a positive return of 0.087% despite the overall market decline, demonstrating its defensive attributes and stability in performance [5][20] - The Cash Management Fund Strategy has achieved a return of 0.033%, outperforming the benchmark, and has accumulated excess returns since its inception [6][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a tool-based fund combination to meet the diverse needs of investors in different market environments, utilizing quantitative methods to select funds with low volatility characteristics [9][11] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy is highlighted as a crucial tool for global asset allocation, focusing on selecting QDII funds based on long-term momentum and short-term reversal factors [10][14] - The performance tracking of various fund combinations indicates that the Evergreen Low Volatility Fund has maintained its low volatility characteristics while achieving significant excess returns since its strategy launch [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of three categories of all-market stock selection combinations and two categories of industry stock selection combinations, focusing on expected marginal improvement, expected risks, and high-quality operations as key investment logic [1][2]. Group 1: All-Market Stock Selection - The three categories of all-market stock selection combinations are designed to identify investment opportunities through multi-dimensional analysis of analyst expectations [2]. - The approach to expected risks involves effectively selecting "high-low wave" assets to respond to a "barbell-type" market [2]. - High-quality operations are emphasized, focusing on industries with upward business cycles and companies with high operational efficiency [2]. Group 2: Industry Stock Selection - In the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, the core logic for stock selection is based on an upward growth cycle supported by valuation fundamentals [3]. - For the new energy industry chain, companies with fundamental support and market recognition are selected [3]. Group 3: Multi-Strategy Index Enhancement - The multi-strategy enhancement of the CSI 1000 index is based on historical holdings from the three all-market and two industry stock selection combinations, with monthly rebalancing [4]. - The strategy allocates 80% of the index components according to their weight in the index and 20% based on an internal equal-weight configuration [4]. - Historical performance from October 31, 2014, to February 28, 2025, shows an annualized excess return of 14.6% relative to the CSI 1000 index, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.5 and a maximum drawdown of only 8.3% [4].

分析师：李亭函 登记编号：S0890519080001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 投资要点 本周A股市场延续上周小幅回落后，企稳反弹，盘中接近2月底高点位置，随后进一步突破高点动力有限，未能 持续打开上升空间，权重整体呈现较强表现态势，上证综指全周收涨1.56%。海外市场方面，美股对于经济衰 退的担忧持续发酵，机构对于美国一季度经济预期的下调等多方面因素压制，美股市场进一步下挫。 量化策略配置观点： 常青低波策略 > 海外权益策略 > 股基增强策略 A股方面，对中短期保持中性偏谨慎态度，本周虽有所反弹，但是动力显著减弱，上证综指突破前期高点阻力 较大。前期多方面利好给芯片、半导体、港股等板块持续上涨的动力，强势突破10月份的高点。在当前市场充 分交易相关利好后，需要关注科技成长板块潜在过热情绪所隐藏的风险。反之，红利相关防御板块在春节后的 交易中关注度较低，相关行业表现较弱，但是银行等红利板块中长期维度的投资逻辑没有发生改变，回调下跌 后相比充分交易的热门板块依旧具有较高性价比，当前依旧推荐低波策略为更佳配置工具。 海外方面，美股在经历去年12月份以来的多轮下跌反弹博弈后，较长时间 ...

Strategy - The recent significant pullback in the Hong Kong stock market was anticipated due to short-term sentiment exhaustion and upcoming important domestic meetings, alongside external disturbances [2] - The market's rebound was primarily driven by trading funds rather than long-term investments, with a notable increase in southbound capital inflows last week [2] - The suggested strategy is to buy actively when prices are low and take profits during euphoric periods, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and industry trends [2] Government Work Report - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, balancing short-term growth stabilization needs with long-term development goals [5] - The CPI inflation target is set at approximately 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach in a context of weak inflation [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces, such as AI, while also addressing financial risks and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [5] US Economic Insights - Recent pressures on the US stock market are attributed to visible risks, including tariff concerns and challenges to the US's AI advantage, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields [8] - The market's concerns about the US economy may be overstated, as past fears have often proved to be excessive [8] - The analysis aims to clarify the underlying truths behind the recent downturn in US macro growth to better assess market directions [8] DeepSeek-R1 Quantitative Strategy - The rapid evolution of large language models like DeepSeek-R1 has garnered significant investor interest, particularly in their application to quantitative strategies [10] - Testing results indicate that DeepSeek-R1 outperformed in industry rotation tasks, achieving an excess return of 22.3% relative to an equal-weighted industry benchmark since 2024 [12] - Despite its advantages, DeepSeek-R1 faces limitations such as hallucinations, content randomness, and context memory length restrictions, which require careful consideration in quantitative strategy development [12] Market Comparison to 2013 - The current market structure shows similarities to 2013, with signs of economic improvement and supportive policies for technology enterprises [14] - The report suggests that the overall market performance in 2025 is expected to surpass that of 2013, with a continued structural trend in technology growth [15] - The analysis indicates that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, with less divergence expected compared to 2013 [15]

Investment Insights - The equity market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with A-shares showing significant pullback starting Friday, indicating a potential pause in the previously heated "spring offensive" [1] - The overall equity market fell by 2.53% for the week, while the Zhongzheng Active Equity Fund Index dropped by 2.70%. In contrast, the Evergreen Low Volatility strategy showed resilience with only a slight decline of 1.13% [1] - The U.S. stock market continued to exhibit risk-averse sentiment, experiencing a notable pullback, although a rebound occurred on Friday. Concerns regarding risk factors remain unresolved [1] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The recommended strategy hierarchy is Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Enhanced Equity Strategy [2] - A cautious stance is maintained for the A-share market in the short to medium term, with the Evergreen Low Volatility strategy showing effectiveness early in the week. Attention is drawn to potential overheating risks in the technology growth sector [2] - Defensive sectors, such as banks, remain attractive for long-term investment despite recent underperformance, especially as the market approaches key political events [2] Overseas Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market has been in a prolonged range-bound phase since December, with recent risk factors leading to heightened risk-averse sentiment and a continued pullback [3] - Despite short-term uncertainties, some quality companies have reached attractive valuation levels, presenting potential investment opportunities [3] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund strategy recorded a weekly decline of 1.127%, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 1.572% [3] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund has demonstrated strong stability since its inception, maintaining low volatility and drawdown levels while achieving decent returns [4] - The Enhanced Equity Fund strategy has shown a close performance to the benchmark, with potential for stronger returns as market conditions improve [4] - The Cash Growth Fund strategy achieved a return of 0.032%, outperforming the benchmark, with cumulative excess returns since inception [4] Global Investment Strategy - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund strategy recorded a decline of 2.217%, influenced by various market disturbances, but still holds potential for future growth as the U.S. economy remains stable [5] - The strategy aims to provide diversified global investment opportunities, particularly in the context of ongoing technological advancements and economic conditions [5] Fund Performance Tracking - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund strategy has maintained a return of 7.158% since its inception, significantly outperforming the Zhongzheng Active Equity Fund Index [15] - The Enhanced Equity Fund strategy has shown a return of 8.016% since inception, indicating strong potential for future performance [15] - The Cash Growth Fund strategy has accumulated an excess return of over 0.29% since its launch, providing effective cash management solutions [19]