Market Performance - A-shares showed poor performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,473 points, up 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.21%[15] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly declined by 0.12% and 0.01% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25%[11] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 422 points or 0.94%, closing at 44,406 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.79% and 0.92% respectively[9] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods, and a 30% tariff on South African products, contributing to market uncertainty and declines in U.S. stocks[9] - The deadline for new tariffs has been extended to August 1, which has led to cautious trading in European markets, with the DAX rising by 1.20% and the FTSE 100 declining by 0.13%[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1% following Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in major crude oil prices, with NYMEX crude up 1.39% to $67.93 per barrel[25] - The gold price initially fell but stabilized later, while industrial metals in London faced declines due to tariff risks[25] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. long-term treasury bonds led the decline, with the yield curve steepening; the 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.38% and the 30-year yield to 4.92%[29] - Asian bond markets experienced mixed trading, with a slight bias towards selling, and spreads widening by 1-2 basis points[29] Key Corporate News - Tesla's stock fell by 6.8% after CEO Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party, raising investor concerns about potential impacts on the company's brand image[9] - Goldin Financial Holdings reported a significant increase in revenue, with a 20.57% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by expansion in overseas markets[18]

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China reached partial agreement on export controls, with the US lifting restrictions on EDA software and certain aerospace products, while China eased some rare earth controls[2] - The core issues in the negotiations include a 20% tariff on fentanyl and a 24% deferred tariff, with expectations that the 20% tariff may be reduced, but the 24% tariff will require longer negotiations[3] - The deadline for observing the outcome of the fentanyl tariff discussions is July 9, with significant implications for future negotiations[3] Group 2: US Trade Agreements with Other Countries - The US has reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia, but negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Canada have not made significant progress[4] - The agreement with Vietnam includes a 40% tariff on transshipment trade, which may set a precedent for future agreements that include unfavorable terms for China[4] - The US is expected to adopt a strategy of "increasing some tariffs while delaying others" to exert pressure on trade partners[4] Group 3: Potential Risks and Future Developments - There is a risk that the US will impose high tariffs on specific countries and industries, particularly if the trade negotiations do not progress favorably[6] - The US is conducting a 232 investigation into ten strategic products, with tariffs already in place for steel (50%) and aluminum (25%), which could lead to a baseline tariff structure of 10% plus additional tariffs for key industries[5] - Future developments to watch include the progress of US-China trade agreements, the outcome of negotiations with other major economies, and potential new conflicts in the Middle East[5]

日本政府内部越来越多观点认为，由于8月启动新关税，"谈判期限实际上已延长"。不过，日本7月3~20 日处于参议院选举期间，即使磋商推迟，能否达成协议也要看选举结果…… 日美关税谈判出现停滞迹象。美国总统特朗普于美东时间7日中午（北京时间8日凌晨）开 始，向贸易伙伴国通报将从8月1日起实施的新关税税率。首先已通告日本和韩国将征收25% 的关税，并警告如果采取报复措施，将进一步提高税率。日美未能就汽车关税缩小分歧，仍 未达成协议。参议院选举期间日本难以让步，谈判的进展将取决于选举结果。 日本政府内部越来越多观点认为，由于8月启动新关税，"谈判期限实际上已延长"（经济部门 高官）。 日美之间围绕汽车关税问题分歧很大。负责谈判的日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正4~6月7次访 美，持续进行部长级磋商。但双方的对话未能达成一致，一度引发了9日之前会再次访美的猜 测。 在日本，从7月3日公示到20日投计票，处于参议院选举期间。特朗普表示，可能将对日本进 口商品征收的关税税率提高至"30%或35%"。日本首相石破茂6日在日本放送协会（NHK） 节目中就日美关税谈判强调称，"不会轻易妥协，需要时间。" 美国方面，贝森特指出，"日本将 ...

韩国贸易部长：延长三周关税暂停时间不足以完成谈判，必须加快谈判进程。 ...

印尼官员：印尼将最大限度争取与美国就关税问题进行谈判。 ...

印尼官员：仍有空间进行关税谈判，主要谈判代表将在华盛顿会见美国贸易代表。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant uncertainty for the ruling coalition, with potential implications for market volatility and stock performance as various polls indicate a risk of losing majority seats [1][2][4]. Group 1: Election Impact on Market - Historical data suggests that when the ruling party loses majority seats in the Senate, the stock market typically declines [2]. - The scale of the ruling coalition's loss will directly influence market reactions, with different scenarios outlined based on the election outcome [9]. - If the ruling coalition maintains its majority, Prime Minister Kishida will continue to govern, but the stability of the House of Representatives remains in question [9]. Group 2: Political Stability Concerns - There is a notable concern regarding the potential resignation of Prime Minister Kishida if the ruling coalition loses its majority, which could lead to a more fluid political situation [4][5]. - The probability of Kishida stepping down by 2025 is perceived as significant, reflecting deep market concerns about political stability [5]. Group 3: Corporate Governance Challenges - The election outcome may challenge corporate governance reforms, as left-wing parties oppose current reforms and right-wing parties call for stricter regulations [10]. - Key issues include proposals for increased taxes on large corporations and high-net-worth individuals, as well as a reevaluation of shareholder-focused governance models [10]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Economic Policy - The Senate election results will also impact the ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with the ruling coalition likely to avoid making concessions during the election period [11][12]. - If the ruling coalition remains in power, clarity on tariff negotiations may emerge post-election; however, significant changes in government could delay agreements further [13].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff delay until August 1, alleviating tensions in global financial markets [1] - Following the announcement, Asian stock markets showed a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1%, and the South Korean KOSPI rising over 1.5% before settling around 0.8% [1] - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose by 0.5% but later experienced a slight pullback, while major indices in Thailand and Vietnam also saw gains [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, the euro and pound rebounded, leading to a weaker dollar, although the yen fell to a two-week low against the dollar [1][6] - The euro appreciated by 0.3% to 1.1742, and the pound rose by 0.24% to 1.3631, while the dollar index declined by approximately 0.2% [6] - The Japanese yen and South Korean won both experienced fluctuations, with the yen continuing to face pressure, dropping to 146.44 against the dollar [9] Group 3 - Trump's announcement included a warning of potential tariffs on imports from Kazakhstan, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [15] - The market interpreted Trump's actions as a negotiation strategy rather than a definitive stance on tariffs, with analysts suggesting that investors are overlooking the latest tariff announcements [15] - The August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations is confirmed but not absolute, as Trump indicated openness to alternative proposals from other countries [15]

石破茂同时也指出谈判在某些方面已有所进展，并表示美总统特朗普信中所提税率并非此前提出的30% 或35%，实际上是维持现状的措施，相当于延长了谈判期限。（央视新闻） 日本首相石破茂8日上午在首相官邸召开了应对美国关税措施的政府综合对策本部会议。在谈及关税谈 判时，石破茂表示，日美双方仍存在分歧，尚未达成协议。 ...

日本内阁官房长官林芳正：日美双方正在进行关税谈判，但尚未达成协议。 ...