Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China reached partial agreement on export controls, with the US lifting restrictions on EDA software and certain aerospace products, while China eased some rare earth controls[2] - The core issues in the negotiations include a 20% tariff on fentanyl and a 24% deferred tariff, with expectations that the 20% tariff may be reduced, but the 24% tariff will require longer negotiations[3] - The deadline for observing the outcome of the fentanyl tariff discussions is July 9, with significant implications for future negotiations[3] Group 2: US Trade Agreements with Other Countries - The US has reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia, but negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Canada have not made significant progress[4] - The agreement with Vietnam includes a 40% tariff on transshipment trade, which may set a precedent for future agreements that include unfavorable terms for China[4] - The US is expected to adopt a strategy of "increasing some tariffs while delaying others" to exert pressure on trade partners[4] Group 3: Potential Risks and Future Developments - There is a risk that the US will impose high tariffs on specific countries and industries, particularly if the trade negotiations do not progress favorably[6] - The US is conducting a 232 investigation into ten strategic products, with tariffs already in place for steel (50%) and aluminum (25%), which could lead to a baseline tariff structure of 10% plus additional tariffs for key industries[5] - Future developments to watch include the progress of US-China trade agreements, the outcome of negotiations with other major economies, and potential new conflicts in the Middle East[5]

从当下来看，特朗普的关税策略，达到了他想要的目的。 6月5日，美国商务部表示，美国4月贸易逆差锐减55.5%至616亿美元。其中，美国进口额较3月份下降16%，至4月份的3510亿美元，而出口额上升3%，至 2894亿美元。 这使得美国贸易逆差为616亿美元，这是2023年9月以来美国的最小贸易逆差。 分数据来看，美国4月份消费品进口额下降了330亿美元，其中药品进口额大幅下降，汽车进口也减少了64亿美元。 这些数据证实了一点：即特朗普在4月初大幅提高关税带来了显著的初期效应，美国贸易逆差大幅下降。 第三就是美国自身付出的经济代价。今年4月份美国就业市场已显疲软（首申失业救济升至24.7万），制造业PMI连续收缩，同时关税可能推高通胀。 但这一趋势能否延续，仍然是一个疑问。 先看核心数据，4月美国贸易逆差环比暴降55.5%至616亿美元，创1992年以来最大跌幅纪录。直接原因是美国进口额史无前例地暴跌了16.3%（约684亿美 元），尤其是消费品和药品进口锐减。爱尔兰对美出口剧减199亿美元就是典型案例。 换句话说，美国消费品和药品进口锐减，是其中的关键原因。 但问题在于，美国人离得开消费品和药品吗？答案显然 ...