1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - **China**: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - **US**: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - **Alumina**: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].

一、核心传导逻辑：PPI是CPI的"先行指标" PPI衡量工业企业产品出厂价格的变动趋势，反映生产端通胀压力；而CPI衡量消费端价格变化，是央行 货币政策的核心参考。两者的传导关系决定了PPI对汇率的基础影响： 正向传导(PPI→CPI→加息→本币升值) 若PPI持续走高，说明企业原材料、生产资料成本上升，这种压力会逐步向下游传导至消费品价格，推 高CPI。当CPI接近或超过央行通胀目标时，央行大概率加息以抑制通胀，高利率吸引国际资本流入， 进而推动本币升值。 典型场景：大宗商品价格暴涨推高PPI，随后消费端物价跟进上涨，央行启动加息周期，本币汇率进入 升值通道。 传导受阻(PPI走高但CPI平稳→汇率无明显反应) 若企业因市场竞争激烈、需求疲软等原因，无法将成本压力转移至消费端，会出现PPI与CPI"剪刀差"扩 大的情况。此时生产端通胀未转化为消费端通胀，央行无需急于加息，汇率缺乏明确的政策驱动信号， 大概率维持震荡。 反向传导(PPI通缩→经济下行→降息→本币贬值) 若PPI持续负增长(生产端通缩)，说明企业盈利空间收窄、投资意愿不足，可能引发经济下行压力。为 刺激经济，央行可能降息，低利率导致国际资本流 ...

（来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 当前，世界经济正在关键的十字路口徘徊。展望2026年，全球经济复苏步伐或将继续放缓，甚至呈现出动能 减弱、风险增多、挑战交织的复杂局面。综合研判，全球经济增长、宏观政策、通货膨胀、国际贸易与金融 稳定等多个维度将面临严峻考验，政策抉择的两难困境愈加凸显。中国经济继续平稳运行，将为世界经济复 苏注入宝贵的稳定力量。 增长动能减弱 2025年，全球经济增长在一定程度上得益于部分企业因预期关税壁垒提升而采取的"前端备货"行为，以及人 工智能（AI）产业硬件需求激增等暂时性因素的强力拉动。随着这些因素的效应在2026年逐步消退，全球经 济增长的内生动力将面临更大考验。因此，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2026年全球经济增速将较2025 年下降0.1个百分点至3.1％。同时，增长分化态势持续。发达经济体经济增速预计为1.6％，动能疲弱；新兴 市场和发展中经济体经济增速预计为4.0％，增长前景受到投资不振与债务高企的共同制约。 持续的地缘政治不确定性、日益加剧的单边主义及保护主义、部分地区潜在的劳动力供给冲击等，仍是抑制 经济活力的重要因素。部分国家财政状况脆弱、金融市场潜在的剧烈 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 债期超长端弱势不改 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2026-1-5 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 主要观点 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场小幅走弱。市场交易主线围绕跨年资金面博弈与基本面预期分化展开。一方面，12月制造业PMI站上荣枯线一度引发债市调整，但随后市场意 识到经济修复的持续性仍需观察，尤其是11月工业企业利润同比降幅扩大至13.1%的数据，强化了基本面弱复苏的预期。另一方面，跨年资金仍有波澜，年前几 个交易日，资金价格大幅波动走高，尤其是31日。政策层面，财政部与发改委联合下达首批625亿元消费品以旧换新补贴资金，但补贴范围收窄、比例下调，市 场解读为财政政策发力更侧重精准性，而非大规模刺激，对债市供给冲击的担忧有所缓解。此外，央行四季度货币政策委员 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector has been strengthening. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. Copper prices may fluctuate, zinc prices are expected to range - bound, and nickel and stainless steel prices may run strongly in the short term [1][9][85][193] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, and provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Positive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the Fed may cut interest rates [9] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Copper ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed slightly, while those using long - term contracts have increased profits [9] - **Demand End**: Negative. High copper prices have led to a decline in downstream demand and a drop in the operating rate of refined copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. Global copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the existence of the US - copper premium have pushed up the copper price. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed may cut interest rates, and China's manufacturing PMI has improved [85] - **Raw Material End**: Slightly positive. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the cost support for zinc prices is strong [85] - **Smelting End**: Negative. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase in January, and the domestic surplus pattern may gradually emerge [85] - **Demand End**: Negative. The operating rate of galvanizing has declined, and environmental protection warnings may affect the operating rate [85] - **Inventory**: Negative. Although the social inventory has decreased, the inventory transfer trend is expected to reverse [85] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to range - bound. The cost center of zinc smelting is stable, and the domestic surplus expectation may gradually appear, but the short - term macro - sentiment is still positive [85] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for unilateral trading; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [85] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and China has implemented relevant policies. However, geopolitical risks have resurfaced [193] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production, and domestic port inventories are decreasing [193] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel has declined slightly, and the production of nickel - iron and stainless steel has also been affected [193] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the demand for new energy has weakened [193] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, although the accumulation speed has slowed down [193] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price may run strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of correction in the long term. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [193] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for short - term trading for nickel; for stainless steel, go long on dips for short - term trading, and enterprises can wait for opportunities to sell short for hedging [193]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is balancing the need to control inflation while maintaining low interest rates to support a weak job market, facing pressure from President Trump for more aggressive rate cuts [2] - On December 10, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75%, with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [2] - The minutes from the December meeting indicate a growing divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson expects inflation to gradually ease, with economic growth projected around 2% this year, suggesting that a moderate adjustment to the federal funds rate may be appropriate later in the year [3] - Paulson expressed a cautious optimism regarding inflation and emphasized the need to understand the factors driving economic growth and employment decline [3] - Despite pressures, the labor market is under strain but has not collapsed, with a broad slowdown attributed to both supply and demand factors [3] Group 3: Liquidity Operations - On December 31, the Federal Reserve provided $74.6 billion in short-term loans through the Standing Repo Facility, setting a new record for daily usage of this tool [4] - This liquidity operation is seen as a response to year-end cash tightness among banks, similar to individuals needing cash for monthly expenses [4] - Despite the liquidity injection, the performance of the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, remained largely unaffected, with Bitcoin prices hovering around $90,000 [4] Group 4: Government Cryptocurrency Holdings - The U.S. government currently holds approximately $30.73 billion in cryptocurrency, including 328,372 BTC valued at about $29.58 billion [5] - The government’s holdings of Bitcoin are primarily from law enforcement seizures rather than for investment purposes, focusing on legal compliance rather than market appreciation [6] - High Bitcoin prices could complicate the government's ability to dispose of these assets, as public scrutiny and potential accusations of market manipulation may arise [6]

Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant decline of 4.4% after reaching a historical high, influenced by profit-taking and a stronger dollar[3] - Silver prices saw increased volatility, with fluctuations exceeding 5% in the first three trading days of the week, leading to an 8.4% drop due to margin increases by the CME[3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.7% amid expectations of oversupply in the global market[3] Geopolitical Events - Notable geopolitical "black swan" events occurred, including an attack on Putin's residence, escalating protests in Iran due to high inflation, and a U.S. airstrike in Venezuela resulting in the arrest of President Maduro[3] - The impact of these geopolitical uncertainties on commodity prices remains to be observed, with ongoing monitoring of global geopolitical developments[3] U.S. Economic Indicators - The December FOMC meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements on future monetary policy, with some officials advocating for rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected[4] - U.S. existing home sales in November fell by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating continued weakness in the real estate market[4] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index dropped to -10.9, reflecting a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[4] Eurozone Economic Performance - Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December was revised down to 48.8, indicating accelerated contraction and falling below market expectations[5] - The euro depreciated by 0.4% against the dollar, influenced by weak manufacturing data[5] - Major stock indices in Europe saw modest gains, with the Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC indices rising by 1.8%, 0.8%, and 1.1% respectively[5]

贵金属日报 2026-01-05 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 内盘截至节前最后一个交易日，沪金跌 0.85 %，报 977.56 元/克，沪银跌 4.27 %，报 17074.00 元/千克；外盘截至 1 月 2 日，COMEX 金报 4341.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 72.27 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.19%，美元指数报 98.41 ； 贵金属，尤其是白银价格在加速上涨阶段已经充分体现了哈塞特或沃什就任的货币政策预期。 而在明年一季度，仍在鲍威尔领导下的美联储，其宽松步伐将会显著放缓。12 月份联储议息 会议宣布进行降息和扩表的"双宽操作"，但点阵图所显示的 2026 年降息预期仅为一次，当 前联储已在过去三次议息会议中进行连续的降息操作，在一月份进一步宽松的可能性较小。我 们预计，一季度整体的联储货币政策表态将会边际转紧。而这对于贵金属价格形成宏观层面的 利空因素。而在现货数据方面，截至 1 月 4 日，白银一月期隐含 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-05 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.10 | 49.20 | 50.10 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.20 | 49.50 | 52.20 | | 20251215 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24888.00 8178.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | ...

2025年黄金市场表现强劲，全年涨幅超60%，创下逾50次历史新高。其主要驱动因素包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱与美债利率下行、全球央 行持续购金以及投资者为分散风险增加配置。短期金价表现归因模型显示，2025年推动金价上涨的因素分布较为均衡，地缘政治风险与机会成本降低贡献显 著。 世界黄金协会基于不同宏观经济走向，对2026年黄金市场提出四种可能情景。在宏观共识情景下，经济增长稳定、通胀温和、美联储小幅降息，金价预计在 区间内波动，无显著趋势；温和衰退情景中，美国经济放缓，美联储降息幅度加大，美元走弱，金价可能上涨5%–15%；恶性循环情景假设地缘政治与经济 风险加剧，引发全球同步衰退，美联储大幅降息，美元承压，金价可能大幅上涨15%–30%；再通胀回归情景下，若特朗普政府政策见效，经济强劲复苏， 通胀回升，美联储维持利率或加息，美元走强，金价可能回调5%–20%。此外，央行购金需求、回收金供应、投资需求等也是影响2026年黄金市场的重要因 素。 央行购金需求方面，新兴市场黄金储备占比仍低，若地缘政治紧张，央行购金可能继续支撑金价；回收金供应上，若金价上涨与经济疲软导致回收金供应减 少，可能进一步 ...