Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is linked to the continuous improvement of China's economy, a weakening USD index, and seasonal corporate foreign exchange settlements [1] - The current RMB to USD exchange rate is at a median level compared to recent years, and China has no intention to devalue its currency to gain trade competitiveness [1] Group 2 - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions this year [3] - The Ministry of Commerce states that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's consumer market size will rank first in the world when adjusted for purchasing power parity [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The market sentiment is bullish, with the futures price leading the increase and the spot price following. The overall supply - demand is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Traders are advised to set dynamic stop - profits and use put options for protection [1]. - Soybean Meal: The futures follow the external market, while the spot market is weak due to ample supply. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions, and the development of the Middle East situation should be monitored [1]. - Oils: Affected by the rising crude oil price, the domestic oil market is strong, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions, with attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, the demand has returned to normal, and the price has corrected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Pigs: The fundamental situation remains weak, and the futures price is running weakly. However, the downward space is narrowing, and the data of the production capacity and market sentiment should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: On Thursday, the position of the 2605 contract increased, and the futures price rebounded. The Northeast spot price is strong, and deep - processing plants are still raising purchase prices. The North China price is also strong, with most enterprises raising prices by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, but the enthusiasm of grass - roots grain depots to follow the price increase is low. The sales area price is stable, and the overall supply - demand is tight [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, following the increase in crude oil. The US soybean weekly export sales decreased by 6% compared with the previous week. In Argentina, the rainfall improved the growth of soybeans, and the expected output is 48.5 million tons. The domestic futures follow the external market, while the spot is weak [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose to a one - month high. The Canadian rapeseed planting area is expected to increase by 1% year - on - year but lower than expected. The domestic oils are strong, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil and rapeseed oil [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the futures fluctuated and adjusted, and the spot price decreased. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has returned to normal after the price rebound. The fundamental situation is bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the futures fluctuated at a low level, and the spot price was generally stable with partial increases. The northern market has resistance to price decline, while the southern market is still actively selling. The fundamental situation is weak, but the downward space is narrowing [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Policy: The Politburo emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. From March 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, additional tariffs on Canadian products will be waived [3]. - International Events: On March 1, local time, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. Trump said the Iran conflict is expected to last about four weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard issued a warning about oil and gas facilities [3][4]. - Shipping: Maersk plans to divert ships due to the Middle East situation and will suspend the passage of ships through the Suez Canal [4]. - Commodity Supply and Demand: India plans to cut power coal imports by at least 30%. The inventory of imported cotton in ports increased by 0.75% week - on - week. OPEC+ decided to resume production increase [4]. - Industry Data: The national alumina operating rate decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 77.17%. Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in April [5][6]. - Crude Oil Price: The US and Brent crude oil futures prices rose, and the market factored in an 8 - 10 US dollars war risk premium [6]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [8][10][11][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [17][20][22][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent statements made by Pan Gongsheng, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, regarding monetary policy, market liquidity, and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - In the past two months, approximately 2 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term funds have been net injected into the open market, indicating a generally loose financing condition in the economy [2] - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample market liquidity [4] - The central bank aims to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, ensuring that the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises remain low [3] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is no necessity or intention for China to devalue its currency to gain trade competitiveness, as the yuan has appreciated against the US dollar this year due to various factors [5] - The current exchange rate of the yuan against the US dollar is within the median range observed in recent years, reflecting a stable economic outlook [5] Group 3: Policy Communication and Transparency - The central bank is focused on improving the transparency of monetary policy and enhancing the communication mechanisms to ensure effective transmission of policy rates to market rates [6] - Future monetary policy will gradually shift away from quantity-based intermediary targets, allowing for a more effective role of interest rate adjustments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth and manage financing costs [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC will guide and regulate interest rates based on changes in the economic and financial landscape, aiming to keep the overall financing costs low [2] - There will be a focus on enhancing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, particularly addressing unreasonable market behaviors that may hinder the transmission of monetary policy [2] - Banks are required to clearly present the annual comprehensive financing costs of loans to enterprises, standardizing financing intermediary fees [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Approach - Currently, China's monetary policy employs both quantity-based and price-based controls, with a gradual shift towards diminishing the emphasis on quantity-based targets [2] - Financial aggregates will be used more as observational, reference, and expectation indicators to better facilitate interest rate regulation [2] Group 3: Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB has appreciated against the USD this year, attributed to the continuous improvement of China's economy, a weakening USD index, and seasonal corporate foreign exchange settlements [2] - The current RMB/USD exchange rate is within the median range observed in recent years, and China does not intend to devalue its currency to gain trade competitiveness [2]

十四届全国人大四次会议3月6日下午3时举行经济主题记者会。央行行长潘功胜在记者会上表示，今年将灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具。 过去两个月在公开市场净投放中长期资金约2万亿元 潘功胜表示，过去两个月时间，在公开市场各项工具净投放中长期资金约2万亿元，总体看，社会融资条件处于宽松状态，金融总量合理增长。 加强规范消减货币政策传导效果的市场行为 潘功胜表示，将根据经济金融形势的变化和宏观经济的运行情况，引导和调控好利率水平，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，强化利率政策执行和 监督，对于一些不合理的、容易消减货币政策传导效果的市场行为加强规范，要求银行向企业明确展示贷款的年化综合融资成本，规范融资中间 费。 综合运用短、中、长期政策工具 保证市场的流动性充裕 潘功胜表示，2026年人民银行将实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效地运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，发挥增量和存量、货币政策和财政政策 的集成协同效应。在数量上，将综合运用短、中、长期的政策工具，保证市场的流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长，同经济增长、价 格水平的预期目标相匹配。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, similar to 2025. Developed countries will keep stable economic growth, and developing countries will also maintain a relatively stable growth rate. Global geopolitics may ease [3][57]. - China's economic growth rate in 2026 may slow slightly compared to 2025, with the full - year growth rate likely ranging from 4.5% - 5.0%. The marginal effect of the "two - new" policies will diminish, real estate investment may continue to decline, and export growth may fall slightly compared to 2025 [3][57]. - China's monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain generally loose. There is a possibility of a small - scale interest rate cut, and the probability of raising policy interest rates is low. The short - end of the Treasury yield curve may continue to decline, while the long - end and ultra - long - end may remain horizontally volatile, making band trading suitable for Treasury futures [3][70][90]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Treasury Futures Contracts and Delivery System - China Financial Futures Exchange has four listed Treasury futures varieties: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year. Each has specific contract elements such as contract value, minimum price change, daily price limit, minimum margin, and deliverable bond maturity [13][14]. - Treasury futures contracts have common elements including trading hours, last trading day, last delivery day, delivery method, contract months, and quotation methods. The delivery process includes rolling delivery and centralized delivery. The price of Treasury futures is mainly affected by spot prices, which are influenced by factors such as money supply, macro - economic policies, and supply - and - demand [16][17][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Treasury Yield and Futures Market Review in 2025 - Over the past 10 years, the 10 - year Treasury yield has shown different trends due to factors such as nominal economic growth, inflation, and the COVID - 19 pandemic. In 2024 - 2025, due to low inflation and loose monetary policies, the yield continued to decline [23][26]. - In 2025, Treasury futures prices fluctuated due to factors such as central bank policies, A - share market performance, and international trade relations. The market first rose, then fell, and rebounded later [3][27]. - In 2025, the cumulative trading volume of 30 - year Treasury futures was 30.46 million lots, 10 - year was 21.85 million lots, 5 - year was 16.80 million lots, and 2 - year was 9.66 million lots. The total annual trading volume was 97 trillion yuan, a 44% year - on - year increase. By the end of December, the 10 - year Treasury futures had the largest open interest, followed by the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year. The total open - interest amount was about 726 billion yuan [35]. 3.3 Third Part: Macroeconomic Review and Outlook - China's GDP grew by 5.0% in 2025, achieving the target set by the Two Sessions [3][38]. - In 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. General infrastructure investment decreased by 1.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%. In 2026, manufacturing investment may maintain low - single - digit growth, and real estate investment is likely to continue to decline [40][43]. - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 50.1202 trillion yuan, a 3.7% year - on - year increase. In 2026, fiscal policies may continue to promote consumption, and the total retail sales growth rate is expected to be about 4.5% [46][48]. - In 2025, China's total export value was $3.77 trillion, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, and the import value was $2.58 trillion, remaining flat. In 2026, export growth may decline slightly [51][57]. - In 2025, the CPI remained flat compared to the previous year, and the PPI decreased by 2.6%. In 2026, CPI may have a moderate increase of about 0.5%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI is expected to narrow significantly [54]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Analysis of Treasury Supply and Demand - China's fiscal deficit rate has generally increased since 2012. In 2025, the target deficit rate was raised to 4%. In 2026, more active fiscal policies will be continued, including boosting consumption, expanding investment, supporting innovation, and strengthening social security [58][60][62]. - In 2025, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points. The open - market Treasury trading operation was restarted in October. In 2026, the central bank will maintain liquidity and guide market interest rates [66][67][69]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Outlook for Treasury Futures Trends - In 2026, China's monetary policy will remain loose. The short - end of the Treasury yield curve may decline, and the long - end and ultra - long - end may remain horizontally volatile. The probability of a slightly bull - steep yield curve is high [70][72]. - The 10 - year Treasury yield in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% - 2.0% [73]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Analysis and Outlook for Treasury Futures Arbitrage Opportunities - Curve strategy: When the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields is around 0.15% or lower, consider going long on the spread. Also, when the yield curve is likely to steepen, consider going long on 2*TS - T [76][77][79]. - Spot - futures strategy: When the implied repo rate (IRR) of the Treasury futures main contract exceeds the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit yield, there is an opportunity for positive arbitrage. When IRR is significantly lower than the funding rate minus the bond - borrowing cost, the value of reverse arbitrage is prominent. Also, consider trading based on the relationship between the Treasury futures price and the basis [81][83]. - Inter - delivery - month strategy: There may be arbitrage opportunities in the inter - delivery - month spread near the delivery month. For example, in 2025, there were opportunities to short TL00 - TL01 when it exceeded 0.30 yuan [86]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Treasury Futures Hedging Case - In October 2025, an insurance company expected new premiums in January 2026. To avoid the risk of rising Treasury prices, it bought Treasury futures with the same amount expiring in three months. After the funds arrived, it could choose to buy Treasury bonds in the spot market and close the long - position in the futures market or take delivery at maturity [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In the first half of 2026, the Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates, and China's monetary policy may also cut interest rates. The inflation level in 2026 is expected to rise compared to 2025. Band trading is suitable for Treasury futures [90].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current social financing growth rate has at least ended the stage of unilateral decline. In some statistical calibers, there is a trend of rising from the bottom [3][45] - The decline space of the current social financing growth rate is very limited, and the actual financing demand of enterprises is expected to rise from the bottom. The original unilateral decline guidance needs to be re - thought [5] - The social financing growth rate and M2 supply should match the economic development and expected price level in 2026, and it may not be what the policy wants to see if it is significantly lower than the sum of the two [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Has the social financing growth rate bottomed out? 1.1 Different calculation methods of social financing growth rate - Due to the changes in the social financing caliber and the impact of debt resolution in the past two years, the guiding effect of social financing on the bond market has weakened. The report conducts multi - caliber analysis of social financing and restores the impact of debt resolution to analyze its details and future trends [12] - Since 2018, the social financing statistical caliber has been adjusted many times. In 2025, government bonds accounted for more than 20% of the social financing stock. Excluding government bonds, the social financing growth rate has oscillated around 6% in the past two years, and its guiding significance for interest rates has become stronger [14] - After excluding government bonds, further excluding corporate bill financing and undiscounted bank acceptances, the social financing growth rate has increased slightly in the past two years, and its guiding significance for interest rates has also become stronger [17][18] - Credit cannot fully reflect the real - entity financing demand. In 2025, A - share new financing marginally rebounded, and H - share new financing continued to climb. There is a substitution effect between corporate loans and industrial bonds, and the loan - bond spread is the core driving factor [20][24][28] - The decline of the balance growth rate of enterprise core credit financing has slowed down and has been relatively stable in the past six months. Considering non - financial industrial bonds, the core social financing growth rate of enterprises has increased significantly since the fourth quarter of 2025 [33][35] 1.2 What are the impacts of debt resolution? - Since the debt - resolution policy in 2023, especially after the local government bond swap for implicit debt policy in 2024, it has impacted the social financing growth rate and credit growth rate [39] - After restoring the impact of debt resolution, the credit growth rate, the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds, and the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds and bills in 2025 all experienced a process of rising first and then falling. Using enterprise core social financing (including industrial bonds) for restoration, the growth rate can be observed to oscillate and rebound at the bottom [41] 2. What are the policy requirements for the social financing growth rate? - The government work report in 2026 stated that the social financing scale and money supply growth should match the economic growth and price level expected target. In the past few years, the social financing growth rate was basically higher than the sum of the two, but the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds was lower than that. In 2025, the social financing growth rate excluding government bonds was only 5.94%. In 2026, the decline space of the social financing growth rate is limited, and the actual financing demand of enterprises is expected to rise from the bottom [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth target and fiscal support in the government work report are in line with market expectations, with limited upward pressure on interest rates from the actual growth rate [5][23]. - The inflation target is set at around 2%, and although the recent Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased inflation expectations, its impact on interest rates needs further observation and is not a major short - term concern [5][23]. - In the short term, the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut is higher than an interest rate cut. The central bank has been injecting long - term liquidity, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can maintain liquidity [5][23]. - In the short term, the bond market is expected to be range - bound and relatively strong. Credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit that have declined significantly are likely to remain range - bound at low levels, while 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds may have phased allocation opportunities [5][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, aiming to balance stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention, and leaving room for reform and high - quality development [7]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - The deficit rate is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from 2025, and the deficit increment is borne by the central government [5][8][9]. - The ultra - long - term special treasury bond is set at 1.3 trillion yuan, with the scale for supporting consumer goods trade - in decreasing from 30 billion yuan to 25 billion yuan [5][9]. - 30 billion yuan of special treasury bonds are to be issued to support the capital replenishment of state - owned large - scale commercial banks, with a focus on ICBC and ABC that did not receive capital injection in 2025 [5][9]. - Local government special bonds remain at 4.4 trillion yuan, mainly supporting major project construction, implicit debt replacement, and settlement of government arrears [5][9]. - Other fiscal and quasi - fiscal funds have expanded significantly, including a 20 - billion - yuan increase in central budgetary investment to 755 billion yuan, a 30 - billion - yuan increase in new policy - based financial instruments to 800 billion yuan, and the establishment of a 10 - billion - yuan special fund for fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand [5][9]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with an emphasis on optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools, increasing their scale, and improving implementation methods [5][11]. - In January 2026, the central bank announced a series of initial monetary and financial policies, increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan and the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan [11]. 3.4 Promoting Consumption - A 10 - billion - yuan special fund for fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand is established, using loan interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk compensation to support domestic demand expansion [12][14]. - The scope of loan interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service - industry business entities is expanded, with an increase in the subsidy ceiling and an extension of the implementation period. A one - time credit repair policy is implemented [14]. 3.5 Expanding Investment - 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds are allocated for "two major" construction, with the pre - allocated scale increasing from 100 billion yuan in 2025 to 220 billion yuan in 2026, highlighting the policy orientation of early action and priority for physical work volume [14][15]. - The government work report emphasizes increasing the quota of local government special bonds for project construction and tilting towards areas with well - prepared investment projects and efficient use of funds [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The government bond futures prices generally declined in the previous trading day, and the IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each government bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates fluctuated, and the yields of key - term government bonds at home and abroad also changed. Looking ahead, the economic growth target in the government work report has been slightly lowered, the central bank still has room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, the escalation of the Middle East situation boosts market risk - aversion sentiment, and the short - term will support the prices of government bond futures. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and relevant policies introduced during the Two Sessions [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of government bond futures generally declined. For example, the T2606 contract fell 0.01%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed. The open interest of T2606 increased by 2605. The cross - period spreads of some contracts also changed, such as the cross - period spread of TF2606 - TF2609 increasing from 0.165 to 0.175 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each government bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term domestic government bonds fluctuated. The 10Y - term government bond yield rose 0.32bp to 1.78%, and the long - short (10 - 2) government bond yield spread was 36.48bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term overseas government bonds generally rose. The 10Y US Treasury yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German Treasury yield rose 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury yield rose 4.1bp [2] 3.3 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 5, the central bank conducted 230 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2975 billion yuan. On March 6, it planned to conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations [3] - **Government Work Report**: The government set the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% this year, with a deficit ratio of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and planned to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds, and 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds [3] - **International Situation**: The Middle East conflict situation continued to escalate, with各方 taking tough stances, which led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment [3] 3.4 Industry Information - **Interest Rates**: Most money market interest rates rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds also increased across the board [3] - **Market Analysis**: The 10 - year government bond active bond yield remained at 1.79%. The central bank's net withdrawal of reverse repurchase funds, the Shibor short - end varieties showed differentiation, and the capital market remained relatively stable. The tense Middle East situation pushed up inflation expectations and increased the volatility of the equity market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.66%. The trading volume of the three major markets slightly increased by 24.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Different futures varieties have different market trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes showed a downward trend [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 5, A - share three major indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4108.57, up 0.64%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14088.84, up 1.23%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3216.94, up 1.66%. The trading volume of the three major markets reached 2412.8 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4647.69 on March 5, up 45.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 5, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1686.4, down 0.9; the coking coal weighted index was sorted out narrowly, closing at 1126.9 yuan, down 4.1 [2][3]. - The main reason for the weakening of coal - coke prices is that the high import volume of Mongolian coal weakens the effect of the slow resumption of domestic coal production, and downstream steel mills and coking plants are still consuming existing furnace material inventories, delaying restocking [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as rising energy prices, the upward trend of US sugar subsided on Wednesday, and it fluctuated lower. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher on Thursday due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and increased spot quotes. At night, it continued to rise under the influence of funds [4]. - As of February 28, Yunnan Province had cumulatively crushed 12.0182 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 9.41%; produced 1.4934 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 6.65%; sold 697,500 tons of new sugar, with a sales rate of 46.71%, lower than 51.60% in the same period of the previous season [4]. Rubber - Due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices caused by the US - Iran dispute and the uncertainty of the global economy, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia fluctuated lower. Affected by this, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on Thursday and slightly declined at night after a large short - term decline [4]. - After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level within the week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 5, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1166.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.45%. The Middle East conflict led to a rise in international crude oil, providing some potential support for the agricultural product market. The US soybean export sales net increase was 383,500 tons in the week ending February 26, in line with market expectations [5]. - Domestically, on March 5, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2843 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.49%. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 710,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 150,500 tons. The decrease in inventory exceeded expectations, enhancing the anti - decline ability of soybean meal prices [5]. Live Pigs - On March 5, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11140 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.09%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March is in a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The market pressure - barring risk has increased, and the breeding end's willingness to reduce production capacity has increased [5]. - The demand for pork is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, the downstream white - strip pork sales are not smooth, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is low, and the demand side has weak support for pig prices. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 5, affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil, the palm oil futures at home and abroad showed high - volatility patterns. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 9070 yuan, an increase of 0.76% compared to the previous trading day [5]. - The spot market is still slowly shipping, and the spot quotes in various markets are the same as the previous day. The mainstream price of 24 - degree palm oil in Zhangjiagang Port is 9000 yuan per ton [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 101,640, reached a high of 102,290, a low of 100,330, and closed at 101,080, with a settlement price of 101,330. The trading volume was 138,700 lots, and the open interest was 201,000 lots, showing a wide - range fluctuation within the day [5]. - The core driving factors are that the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has cooled, and the strong US dollar suppresses non - ferrous metals. In February, the domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 7.96% year - on - year, and downstream enterprises resumed work slowly, were resistant to high prices, and mainly purchased on demand with weak restocking willingness [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15215 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 11 lots compared to the previous trading day. After the Spring Festival, polyester staple fiber rose sharply [6]. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 803 on Thursday, with a low of 798.5, a high of 805, and closed at 800.5, with an increase of 424 lots in positions [6]. - On March 5, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Iron Ore - On March 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.27% and a closing price of 759 yuan. The iron ore shipment continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron production maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, and the short - term iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend [6]. Asphalt - On March 5, the asphalt 2604 main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.11% and a closing price of 3659 yuan. As refineries gradually resume production, the asphalt capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the refinery shipment volume has also increased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Steel - On March 5, rb2605 closed at 3075 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3209 yuan per ton. The government work report proposed a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the general public budget expenditure increased by about 1.27 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - The steel industry is still in the stage of resuming work and production, the market demand has not recovered, and the steel price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On March 5, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan per ton. The new production capacity in Guangxi was put into production less than expected, resulting in a tight supply in the southwest region. After the Spring Festival, the spot circulation in the north tightened, which supported the price to a certain extent. However, the overall supply - surplus pattern of alumina has not changed, and the upward pressure is still significant [6]. - The domestic alumina production started stably this week. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream resumption rate increased, and the spot price stabilized and rebounded slightly, providing marginal benefits [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 5, al2604 closed at 24815 yuan per ton. Domestically, the market is concerned about the guidance of important meetings. The supply side operates stably, the aluminum - water ratio remains at a low level within the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory pressure continues to rise [6]. - The demand side is under increasing pressure, the major downstream consumption areas are cautious in receiving goods, and the high aluminum price suppresses the demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious [6].