由于当月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着MLF净投放量达3000亿元，为连续第六个月加量续做。 "这显示出政策的连续性。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，货币政策延续支持性立场，持续向市场 注入中期流动性，有利于稳定市场预期，保持市场流动性充裕。（完） 新华社北京8月22日电（记者任军、吴雨）中国人民银行22日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充 裕，8月25日中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 ...

在5月降准之后，央行持续开展中期借贷便利和买断式逆回购操作，中期流动性处于净投放状态。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，在5月降准释放长期流动性10000亿之后，近三个月中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，且8月净投放规模显著扩 大，主要有三个原因，一是现阶段处于政府债券持续发行高峰期，同时监管层也在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。央行持续注入中期流动 性，体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的协调配合，有助于推动宽信用进程，更好满足企业和居民的融资需求。二是受反内卷牵动市场预期，以及 股市走强等因素影响，近期中长端市场利率普遍上行，银行体系流动性有所收紧，央行通过MLF等政策工具加大资金投放，有助于稳定市场预 期，保持市场流动性充裕。三是央行持续实施中期流动性净投放，也在释放数量型货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号。这意味着尽管上半年宏观 经济运行稳中偏强，但货币政策仍在延续支持性立场。 《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》在谈及下一阶段货币政策思路时指出，强化逆周期调节， 根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情 况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏。密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化， 持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lisa Cook, the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve Board, is facing allegations of mortgage fraud, which have drawn significant media attention and political pressure, particularly from the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Allegations and Political Pressure - Cook has been accused of mortgage fraud by a Trump administration official, who plans to submit a criminal investigation request to the Department of Justice [1]. - President Trump has publicly called for Cook's resignation, although she has stated she will cooperate with the investigation but has no plans to resign from the Federal Reserve Board, where her term lasts until 2038 [1][4]. - The allegations come at a critical time as the Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates [1][4]. Group 2: Cook's Background and Influence - Cook is recognized as a rigorous academic researcher and has been influential in discussions about monetary policy, particularly regarding the impact of artificial intelligence [2]. - She has a strong academic background, having graduated from Spelman College and earned a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley [3]. - Cook's notable research has highlighted the decline in patents among Black innovators during periods of racial violence, which garnered attention from prominent economists [3]. Group 3: Legal Context and Implications - The specific allegations involve Cook declaring properties as her primary residence to secure lower mortgage rates, which is under scrutiny for potential fraud [5][6]. - Legal experts note that cases of mortgage fraud based solely on misrepresentation of primary residence status are rare, with only 2-3% of mortgages showing fraudulent self-reported claims from 2005 to 2017 [6]. - The political context suggests that the allegations may be part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to install allies within the Federal Reserve [4][7]. Group 4: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The situation is occurring during a sensitive period of power restructuring within the Federal Reserve, with recent resignations and new appointments potentially shifting the balance of power [7]. - If Cook were to resign, it could allow Trump-appointed members to dominate the board, fundamentally altering interest rate decision-making [7]. - Concerns are rising about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence due to political pressures, which could undermine its role as an economic stabilizer [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, the procedures and rules of the Chairmanship change, and the potential impacts if the Fed's independence is weakened. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent are considering new candidates, which has raised concerns about the "independence" of monetary policy [1][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Candidates and Their Backgrounds - **Three main contenders**: Waller, Hassett, and Warsh are the leading candidates. As of August 21, according to Polymarket, Waller has a 32.0% probability of being nominated, followed by Warsh (10.7%) and Hassett (10.0%). According to Kalshi, Waller has a 29% chance, Hassett 19%, and Warsh 18% [2][10]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor and a dove. He is familiar with the Fed's operations, was appointed by Trump, and his policy views align with the White House. His election may raise questions about the central bank's independence [16]. - **Kevin Hassett**: The current director of the White House National Economic Council. He has rich government experience but relatively less monetary policy experience and is considered too close to the government [17][18]. - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, regarded as a dove, and supports Trump's call for rate cuts. He has extensive experience in various fields but lacks direct access to Trump [21][22]. - **Other candidates and potential "dark horse"**: Other candidates include current Fed officials, financial institution professionals, former Fed officials, and former government economists. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Milan, recently nominated as a Fed governor, may be a "dark horse." He advocates for reciprocal tariffs, has a dovish stance on interest rates, and wants to weaken the Fed's independence, which has raised concerns about his impact on the central bank's credibility [24][27]. 3.2 Procedures and Rules for the Fed Chairmanship Change The President usually announces the nominee 3 - 6 months in advance, with an average of 4.08 months from nomination to inauguration. Trump is expected to announce the nominee between December this year and January next year. If announced earlier, it may raise concerns about setting up a "shadow Fed." After Powell steps down as Chair, he is likely to resign as a governor. Trump can influence the Fed's policy by nominating new governors, but most current governors' terms extend beyond 2028, making it difficult for him to interfere [29][31]. 3.3 Potential Impacts of Weakened Fed Independence - **Increased stagflation risk**: Historical precedents show that when the Fed loses independence, stagflation can occur. If Trump appoints a closely - affiliated Fed Chair, the market may worry about repeating the 1973 - 1974 stagflation scenario [34]. - **Intensified fiscal concerns**: The Fed losing independence may turn it into a tool for the Treasury to issue debt, exacerbating concerns about the debt crisis given the high deficit and rising debt in the US [36]. - **Weakened US dollar status and capital flight**: The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency depends on the Fed's credibility. If the Fed is seen as politically controlled, investors may shift from dollar - denominated assets to alternatives like gold, leading to a vicious cycle [38]. - **US stock, bond, and currency sell - off**: A "black swan" event where the Fed is controlled by the White House could lead to a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, as demonstrated by the market reaction in July when there were rumors of firing Powell [38].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated, with slight declines. The 8 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank emphasized implementing a moderately loose monetary policy with a focus on structural easing, reducing the possibility of comprehensive easing. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising, and the stock market's profit - making effect has attracted funds, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for market rates to rise is limited, meaning treasury bond futures have strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [1] Group 2: Industry News - On August 22, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with a 7 - day term at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3] Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the TL2509 trend, T2509 trend, TF2509 trend, TS2509 trend, treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and central bank open - market operations [4][6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, with a focus on key areas such as exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on monitoring exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive and expansionary, aiming to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Preferences - In terms of asset allocation, insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [5]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [5]. - The bond market outlook is moderately optimistic, with a focus on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 55.81% of insurance companies expressing optimism [5]. - Expectations for A-share market trends indicate a belief in a fluctuating upward trajectory, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 59.30% of insurance companies anticipating this movement [5]. - Regarding A-share valuations, 69.44% of asset management institutions and 66.28% of insurance companies consider current valuations to be reasonable, while 25% and 25.58% respectively view them as low [6]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Insurance institutions are particularly interested in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [6]. - There is a focus on investment themes including artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor influencing the A-share market [6]. Group 5: Risk Considerations - The primary risks identified by insurance asset management institutions and insurance companies for the second half of 2025 include asset scarcity, yield pressure, interest rate declines, and asset-liability mismatches [10]. Group 6: Offshore Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of 2025, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [11].

新华财经北京8月22日电周四（8月21日）国际金价震荡小幅收跌。当天现货黄金开盘3349.26美元，最 高3352.12美元，最低3324.95美元，收盘报3338.40美元，全天波幅27.17美元，下跌9.70美元，跌幅 0.29%，日K线呈现有下影线的小阴线形态，再次确认了短期低点。 技术上看，自4月22日创下历史新高一来，近四个月金价维持在3250美元-3450美元的宽幅区间震荡。虽 然短期金价连续下探3300美元后回升，强化了短期在该关口附近止跌的概率，但中长期趋势仍然需等待 区间破位。 另外注意到，金价仍然没有突破3355美元一线的阻力区，暂时还不能确认是否能形成持续上升的行情。 且从日K线技术指标来看，当前金价依然受到布林带中轨及60日均线的压制。这预示着金价只有向上突 破3355美元阻力，方可再次冲击3400美元整数目标。 基于此，短期对金价暂时以3320美元-3355美元区间震荡看待，耐心等待晚间全球央行年会释放出的信 号。下方支撑可关注3300美元整数关口，其后是3280美元。若金价跌破后者，多头或需要暂时离场。 （作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） （文章来源：新华财经） 总结近期金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The processing fee has rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance, but with relatively stable power grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. So, the overall price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The future development of the Putin-Biden meeting needs attention. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put pressure on the LME copper price. Also, the relatively strong performance of the domestic equity market may siphon off commodity funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, a -0.13% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The night session opened at 78,580 yuan/ton and closed at 78,710 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase from the afternoon closing [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 100 - 220 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average of 160 yuan/ton, a 30 yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,710 - 78,890 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered. Due to the concentrated arrival of imported and domestic copper sources, holders actively sold, leading to a general decline in premiums. It is expected that domestic copper will continue to arrive at the warehouse, and low - priced imported sources will suppress premiums, but downstream procurement may provide support near the weekend, so the downward space for spot premiums is limited [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5; the Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant increase in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3]. - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000; the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3]. - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Harmaque said she would not support a rate cut at the September meeting if Fed officials were to make a policy decision tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25BP rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping it unchanged [3]. Mine End - Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing to support the early construction of its Nussir copper project in Norway. The project is expected to cost $330 million to build, with a mine life of 25 years, an average annual output of 25,000 tons of copper concentrate, and associated silver and gold. The cash cost is only $1.38 per pound of copper, ranking in the low - cost quartile of the industry, and it aims to start production in September 2027 [4]. - Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship mine El Teniente reduced production by 33,000 tons. The expected output of El Teniente this year is 316,000 tons, and the production decline will cause a loss of $340 million [4]. Smelting and Import - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated on the 19th. Hong Kong's participation in the LME's delivery network is an important step in building a commodity trading ecosystem. China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to copper concentrate and cold material supply shortages increased compared to July [5]. Consumption - In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range; the leading index was 79.7, up 0.1 points from June; the coincident index was 73.8, down 0.9 points from June. In July 2025, China's copper foil export volume was 4,483.51 tons, a 13.32% year - on - year increase and a 3.23% month - on - month increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,200.00 tons to 156,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 66 tons to 25,157 tons. On August 18, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 131,700 tons, a - 2,000 - ton change from the previous week [6].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 361.2 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on August 22, maintaining the previous rate [1] - The total net injection through reverse repos this week reached 1,365.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week, where operations exceeded 200 billion yuan on multiple days [1] - The increase in reverse repo operations is aimed at ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system to meet the demand for government bond issuance during the peak period in August and September [1] Group 2 - The central bank is expected to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to enhance liquidity management in the short to medium term [2] - Following the May reserve requirement ratio cut, the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 6.2%, with some rural small financial institutions facing a "hidden lower limit" of 5% [2] - There is an expectation for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and improvements in the reserve requirement system to enhance the policy adjustment function of reserve requirement tools [2]