Core Viewpoint - The increase in non-farm employment in June is primarily supported by government jobs, while private sector employment shows significant weakness [1][2][15] Employment Data - In June, non-farm employment rose to 147,000, with government contributing half of the new jobs, mainly in state and local education, while private sector jobs fell sharply to 74,000 from 137,000 in May [1][2][4] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating more individuals are exiting the labor market [6][15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, marking a continued decline since November 2024 [8][11] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was seen in business services and finance at 5.3% and 4.3%, while manufacturing and retail experienced the largest declines in wage growth [11][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.76 million in May, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, indicating a balance between labor supply and demand [10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a decrease in private sector job creation and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce [15] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [15]

菲律宾央行：将通过确保货币政策有利于可持续经济增长和就业来维护物价稳定。 ...

123456789:;<2025-07-04 !"#$%&'()*+,-.$%/0 ——!"#$%&'(1 !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 7 月 3 日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国 6 月非农就业人口增加 14.7 万人，预期 11 万人，前值由 13.9 万人修正为 14.4 万人； 6 月失业率为 4.1%，低于预期的 4.3%和上个 月的 4.2%。 &'"( ■ 6 !"#$%&'7 !()*+,-(. 招聘和空缺：招聘需求趋缓，职位空缺回升。 1）截止 2025 年 6 月，招聘计划月均小 幅回落至 3191 万人，较 5 月均值回落近 5500 人，而在 2021 年时为 12.7 万人（2019 年 时为 10.4万人）。2）截止 2025年 6月，修正后的非政府部门职位空缺数升至 693.6万， 但相比较 2022 年 1000 万以上的高点持续放缓（其中制造业缺口降至 41.4 万人）。 非农就业：新增就业总量回落，失业率有所回落。 1 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced strong performance on July 3, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index increased by 51.94 points, or 0.83%, closing at 6279.36 points. The Nasdaq Composite index climbed 207.97 points, or 1.02%, ending at 20601.10 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 344.11 points, or 0.77%, closing at 44828.53 points. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new closing records, marking the S&P 500's seventh record close of the year and the Nasdaq's fourth record close of the year. Due to the public holiday, the US stock market closed early with relatively light trading volume [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector was the main driver of the market's rise, with several leading tech stocks recording significant gains. Nvidia's stock price rose by 1.3%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion. The company briefly surpassed the $3.9 trillion market cap threshold, coming close to Apple's record for the highest global market capitalization. Amazon's stock increased by 1.59%, Microsoft by 1.58%, and Meta Platforms by 0.76%. Apple saw a 0.52% increase, while Alphabet rose by 0.5%. Tesla was an exception in the tech sector, closing down by 0.1% [3]. - Nvidia's strong performance was supported by multiple factors. OpenAI recently announced it would not adopt Google's TPU chips on a large scale and would continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs and AMD's AI accelerators for its model training and inference work. OpenAI's reasoning was that these two chip manufacturers' products are "performance-validated" and have "existing supply agreements." This statement sent a positive signal to the market, indicating that Nvidia and AMD will remain core suppliers for OpenAI, potentially limiting Google's growth in the AI hardware market share [3]. Employment Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, providing significant support for the stock market. In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000 jobs, far surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, representing a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and increased by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating a moderate wage growth trend that helps alleviate inflationary pressures [4]. - Employment growth showed structural characteristics, with government sector employment increasing by 73,000 jobs, primarily driven by state and local education positions. Healthcare added 39,000 jobs, and social assistance increased by 19,000 jobs. The federal government saw a reduction of 7,000 jobs due to layoffs. Additionally, employment data for the previous two months was revised upward, with April's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, totaling an upward revision of 16,000 jobs [4]. - The strong employment data impacted expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Before the data release, traders estimated a 25% probability of a rate cut in July. Following the report, market expectations for a short-term rate cut quickly diminished. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the likelihood of a July rate cut fell to single digits, and the expectation for a 25 basis point cut in September decreased from 74% a week prior to 68% [4].

曾经在采访中对AI影响就业问题闪烁其词的美国企业CEO们，如今开始直言不讳地预测这项技术可能 将带来的大规模裁员。据《华尔街日报》7月2日报道，从汽车制造商到金融巨头，越来越多的企业领导 者公开表示AI将显著削减白领职位。 福特汽车CEO Jim Farley上周在阿斯彭创意节上表示，"人工智能将取代美国字面意思上一半的白领工作 者"。摩根大通消费者和社区银行业务CEO Marianne Lake也在5月向投资者透露，该公司运营部门人员 数量可能在未来几年因使用新AI工具而减少10%。 然而，并非所有科技高管都持悲观态度。 OpenAI首席运营官Brad Lightcap上周在"Hard Fork"播客中表示，他不认为对初级员工的影响会像一些人 预测的那样迅速和全面。但他承认岗位流失不可避免，并指出任何新技术都会导致劳动力市场变化。 人工智能公司Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei在5月接受Axios采访时预测，一到五年内，一半的入门级工 作可能消失，导致美国失业率达到10%至20%。他敦促企业高管和政府官员停止"粉饰"这一情况。 自由职业平台Fiverr的CEO Micha Kaufman今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].

金十数据7月4日讯，中信证券研报表示，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。 不过，本份非农报告实则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。我们依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限，就业 市场继续走弱失业率或将加快上行。然而，6月4.1%的失业率给了鲍威尔更多"理由"观察夏季关税对通 胀的影响，我们延续此前观点，预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息。 中信证券：预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing attitudes of university students towards graduation and social relationships, highlighting a sense of disconnection and anxiety among the 2025 graduating class, as evidenced by their reluctance to participate in traditional activities like graduation photos [3][4][5]. Group 1: Graduation Attitudes - Many students from the 2025 cohort express disinterest in taking graduation photos, citing reasons such as lack of meaning and a sense of obligation rather than joy [3][4][8]. - The reluctance to capture memories reflects a broader sentiment of anxiety and pressure to validate their existence within the academic environment [8][41]. Group 2: Social Relationships - The article illustrates a shift in social dynamics among students, where relationships are characterized by distance and self-preservation rather than closeness and camaraderie [5][11][36]. - Students maintain a "smooth yet indifferent" relationship with roommates and classmates, often avoiding conflict and emotional investment [11][36]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced students' social interactions, leading to a preference for maintaining distance, which some students find liberating as it alleviates the pressures of intimate relationships [5][6]. - The pandemic has also contributed to a lack of social imagination, with students feeling less inclined to engage in meaningful connections [6][20]. Group 4: Academic and Career Pressures - The article highlights the intense pressure students feel regarding their academic and career paths, with many feeling compelled to conform to societal expectations of success [20][25]. - Students often prioritize activities that enhance their employability over personal interests, leading to a sense of disillusionment with their educational experience [20][25]. Group 5: Identity and Recognition - The quest for self-identity among students is complicated by societal pressures, where external validation becomes a primary measure of self-worth [20][30]. - Students engage in selective social interactions based on shared interests, often leading to a superficial understanding of one another [30][33].

Core Insights - The establishment of "Le Ye Xiao Zhan" employment service stations in Zhengzhou aims to address the structural contradiction between the high demand for labor from enterprises and the employment difficulties faced by residents [1][2][3] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to create a "15-minute employment service circle," enhancing accessibility to job opportunities and services for local residents [2][3] Group 1: Employment Service Stations - "Le Ye Xiao Zhan" serves as a community-based platform providing various employment services, including policy promotion, job guidance, and vocational training, facilitating local employment [1] - The service model is tailored to meet the specific needs of industries, such as the high turnover in the restaurant sector, by actively engaging with businesses to address their labor requirements [1][2] Group 2: Regional Employment Initiatives - The initiative has expanded across Zhengzhou and is being piloted in various regions throughout the province, establishing a comprehensive "1+19+N" labor market service system [2][3] - By the end of May, the province had constructed 336 new employment service stations and transformed 1,135 locations into labor markets or service stations, achieving near-complete coverage at the county level [3] Group 3: Community Impact - The employment service stations not only provide physical spaces for job seekers but also represent a significant transformation of the traditional employment service system, enhancing service delivery to underserved areas [3] - The initiative aims to create a comprehensive public employment service system that is efficient, accessible, and responsive to the needs of diverse populations, including those in rural and remote areas [3]

欧元区通胀数据显示出微妙变化。6月年化通胀率从1.9%反弹至2%，恰好触及欧洲央行设定的物价目 标。这一数据与市场预期保持一致，但背后的结构性特征值得关注。服务价格同比上升3.3%，食品和 烟酒价格上升3.1%，而能源价格则下降2.7%。核心通胀率维持在2.3%的水平，表明价格压力仍然存 在。 美国6月ADP就业数据的疲软表现为美联储政策预期带来新的变数。专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教 育领域的就业岗位下降，成为服务业就业减少的主要原因。ADP首席经济学家理查德森指出，企业在招 聘上的犹豫态度以及不愿意补充离职员工，导致了就业岗位的减少。 这一数据引发了对即将公布的6月非农就业报告的高度关注。瑞银预计6月非农就业人数或仅增加10万 人，失业率或创2021年新高。花旗的预测更为悲观，认为非农就业仅增加8.5万人。如果6月就业数据表 现异常疲软，美联储最早可能在7月份采取降息行动。 美国就业市场的疲软表现与欧元区相对稳定的通胀环境形成对比。这种差异可能为欧元兑美元汇率提供 支撑因素。当前欧元兑美元汇率在1.17-1.18区间波动，市场正在权衡两大央行政策分化的影响。 美股市场的表现也反映出投资者对经济前景的复杂情 ...