Core Insights - The article highlights the positive trends in China's fiscal operations from January to October, indicating a steady recovery in revenue and optimized expenditure structure, which supports high-quality economic development and modernization efforts [1][2]. Revenue Summary - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a notable monthly growth trend [1]. - Tax revenue was particularly strong, amounting to 15.336 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1% to 331.26 billion yuan [1]. - Key tax categories showed growth, with domestic value-added tax at 588.58 billion yuan (up 4%) and corporate income tax at 391.82 billion yuan (up 1.9%) [1]. - The securities transaction stamp duty surged to 162.9 billion yuan, marking an 88.1% increase year-on-year, contributing to an overall stamp duty growth of 29.5% [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure for the same period totaled 22.5825 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2]. - Expenditure allocation favored social welfare and strategic sectors, with social security and employment spending at 377.42 billion yuan (up 9.3%), education spending at 341.17 billion yuan (up 4.7%), and health spending at 168.77 billion yuan (up 2.4%) [2]. - The focus on key areas such as technology, environmental protection, and social welfare demonstrates the government's commitment to stabilizing employment and improving living standards [2]. Policy Direction - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to support the realization of socialist modernization [3]. - Key strategies include maintaining a strong expenditure intensity, optimizing fiscal resource allocation towards high-quality development sectors, and ensuring policy coherence across fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies [3].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货11月17日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 116.070 | 116.220 | 116.450 | 116.460 | 0.380 | 0.33 | 88270 | 103541 | -3316 | | TL2603 | 115.850 | 116.010 | 116 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady recovery of national public budget revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in October, indicating a positive economic trend [1] - In the first ten months, the total public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Tax revenue in October was 2.07 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% growth, which supports the notion of a resilient economy [1] Group 2 - The stamp duty revenue for the first ten months was 378.1 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1%, indicating an active capital market [2] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax revenue performance, with notable growth in sectors like computer communication equipment manufacturing (12.7%) and scientific research services (14.8%) [2] - Total public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, up by 2%, with significant increases in social security and employment (9.3%) and education (4.7%) expenditures [2] Group 3 - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4% to 8.09 trillion yuan, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The article emphasizes the need for continued active fiscal policies to support key expenditures and stimulate effective demand, contributing to economic recovery and sustainable fiscal health [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance fiscal support in line with major strategic goals, maintaining spending intensity and utilizing various fiscal tools to support economic and social development [3]

Core Insights - The national general public budget revenue showed a steady increase in October, with a total revenue of 2.26 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2] - Tax revenue in October reached 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, indicating strong economic support for tax sources [2] - The first ten months of the year saw a total general public budget revenue of 18.65 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [2] Revenue Breakdown - Major tax categories showed positive growth: domestic VAT increased by 4%, domestic consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and individual income tax by 11.5% [2] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty at 162.9 billion yuan, reflecting a vibrant capital market [3] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries reported strong tax revenue performance, with computer and communication equipment manufacturing up 12.7%, and scientific research and technical services up 14.8% [4] - Expenditure in key areas such as social security and employment grew by 9.3%, education by 4.7%, and health by 2.4%, indicating a focus on human investment and innovation support [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal operation in the first ten months showed improving revenue, strong expenditure support, and continuous structural optimization [5] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for maintaining an active fiscal policy to support economic recovery and sustainable development [5]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in national general public budget revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in October, reaching 2.26 trillion yuan [1] - Tax revenue showed a significant increase of 8.6% in October, indicating strong economic support for tax sources [1] - The overall fiscal performance for the first ten months reflects gradual improvement in revenue, strong expenditure support, and continuous structural optimization [3] Revenue Performance - In the first ten months, national general public budget revenue totaled 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax saw growth rates of 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively, with notable increases in personal income tax [1][2] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 88.1%, reflecting an active capital market [2] Expenditure Trends - Total national general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, a 2% increase, with significant growth in social security and employment (9.3%), education (4.7%), and environmental protection (7%) [2] - The government is focusing on enhancing fiscal policy and increasing expenditure intensity to support key areas such as education, science and technology, and social security [2][3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The expenditure of 4.54 trillion yuan from various bond sources is aimed at stabilizing investment and growth [3] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain an active fiscal policy, ensuring strong support for key expenditures and expanding effective demand [3] - The recent Party Congress emphasized the importance of fiscal policy in achieving economic and social development goals [3]

Policy Developments - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, allowing private enterprises to enter monopolistic sectors like energy and railways, and supporting participation in low-altitude economy infrastructure[10] - The government aims to reserve over 40% of procurement budgets for small and medium enterprises in projects exceeding 4 million yuan[10] Economic Strategy - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of integrating "two重" construction into the "十四五" plan, focusing on strategic and forward-looking requirements[3] - Fiscal policy during the "十四五" period will maintain an active orientation, adjusting deficit rates and debt levels based on economic conditions[3] Industry Focus - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans for the "十四五" development of smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries[12] - By 2030, a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, with new electricity demand primarily met by renewable sources[12] Risk Considerations - There is a risk of delayed policy updates, which could impact the effectiveness of the measures introduced[3]

Economic News - The State Council meeting emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential and promote economic circulation, focusing on consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese consulates in Japan warned Chinese citizens about the deteriorating safety environment in Japan, advising against travel [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% from January to October [4] Key Company Information - Ningde Times' shareholder Huang Shilin plans to transfer 1% of shares [4] - Huaxia Happiness has had its pre-restructuring accepted by the Langfang Intermediate Court [4] - Kaiser Travel Industry formed a consortium with Guangzhou Haina to participate in the restructuring investment of Zhangjiajie Tourism Group, acquiring 800,000 shares [4] - Huakang Clean won a project worth 100 million yuan [4] - Chuangye Huikang is planning a change of control and will resume trading on November 17 [4] Antimony Industry Insights - China holds 30% of global antimony resources, with reserves increasing from 480,000 tons in 2020 to 670,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.7% [6] - In 2024, China is projected to produce 60,000 tons of antimony, accounting for 57.7% of global production, which has been declining over the past decade [7] - The demand for antimony in flame retardants remains the highest, while the fastest growth is seen in photovoltaic glass, with a projected 10.8% increase in global antimony consumption in 2024 [8] - The strong growth in photovoltaic installations is expected to drive sustained demand for antimony, with projections indicating a significant increase in demand from 2024 to 2027 [9] - The global antimony supply-demand gap is expected to widen, with a projected shortfall of 9.5 million tons by 2027, representing 42.8% of demand [10] - The tightening of antimony supply due to export controls and environmental policies in China is likely to push prices higher, with potential increases of up to 56% in domestic prices [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic situation shows a weak recovery, with 10 - month economic data indicating mixed trends in various sectors. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery, and the stock market has different trends in insurance capital investment and institutional research preferences. For 2026, the economy is expected to have positive growth, and different investment strategies are recommended [32][33]. - The commodity market is affected by factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation, resulting in price fluctuations and changes in market structure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, lower than the previous and the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from the previous month. The social financing scale in October was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month [1]. - In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, a narrower decline than before. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - to - date, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.28% year - to - date [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 462.91 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025 [2]. - On November 14, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", excluding some agricultural products [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - London's basic metals all declined due to the Fed's policy uncertainty and weak economic data. The demand for lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to reach 155 tons, with an oversupply of about 20 tons. In 2026, the demand is expected to increase by 30%, and the price may rise [4][5]. - The expansion project of Northern Zhongxin Antai Rare Earth Metals was put into production, increasing the production capacity and product variety. On November 13, zinc inventory reached a new high in over a month, while lead inventory decreased [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early November, the prices of coking coal and coke increased. The production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The shipping volume of iron ore to China increased, but port inventory reached an eight - month high [7][8][9]. - The Indonesian government set the benchmark prices for different grades of coal in the second half of November. The steel industry should seize development opportunities, improve product quality, and enhance the self - sufficiency rate of iron ore [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The first gas storage group in Northwest China started winter gas supply, with a maximum daily supply of over 5 million cubic meters. The Russian port of Novorossiysk stopped oil exports due to a drone attack and then resumed operations on November 16 [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Over 80% of winter wheat has been sown in China. The US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. India is considering resuming wheat product exports, and the US and Switzerland adjusted agricultural product tariffs [12]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% [13]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 17, the central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, 112.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature. On November 14, the central bank conducted 21.28 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.11 billion yuan [15][16]. 3.3.2 Key News - An important article by Xi Jinping emphasizes the development of new - quality productivity. Han Wenxiu mentions cultivating emerging and future industries. China's economic data in October shows a stable operation, and the government promotes consumption and implements fiscal and monetary policies [17][18][19]. - The real estate market shows price declines, and the government promotes "two - major" construction. The financial market needs improvement, and the central bank and financial regulatory authorities take measures. The bond market has rating changes and redemption events [19][20][24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market fluctuated narrowly, with mixed changes in bond yields and futures. The money market funds were balanced, and the overnight repurchase rate increased. The exchange - traded bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the convertible bond index declined [26][27]. - The yields of European and US bonds increased, and the money market interest rates showed different trends. The central bank's bond issuance had specific winning bid yields and multiples [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1007, down 48 basis points. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will maintain a volatile recovery, and the 10 - year treasury bond rate may decline. Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market's allocation power is neutral [32][33]. - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the GDP in 2026 will grow by about 5%, and recommends investment in three main lines. CITIC Securities believes that the wealth management industry is in a transformation period [33]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut is low, and the interest rate cut window may open. CICC Fixed Income believes that the bond market may have a configuration opportunity [34]. 3.4 Stock Market - At the end of Q3 2025, the insurance funds' stock investment balance increased significantly, with bank stocks being the main investment target. In November, nearly 770 companies were surveyed by institutions, with a focus on the electronics and machinery sectors [37]. - South - bound funds have been flowing in for 26 consecutive weeks, and Xiaomi Group - W received the highest net purchase in the past week [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability, marking a shift from the previous plan's focus on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [1] Group 1: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The plan suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the central government's fiscal expenditure ratio while enhancing local fiscal autonomy, especially as reliance on land finance decreases [2][3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a commitment to increasing local fiscal capacity [2] - The central fiscal expenditure ratio is currently below 15%, which is lower than that of major countries, highlighting the need for reform to better align responsibilities and resources between central and local governments [3] Group 2: Debt Management - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management is crucial, with a focus on addressing existing hidden debts and preventing new ones [4] - Transparency in local government debt information is essential, and debt management should consider sustainability and market conditions to minimize financing costs [4] - The government aims to optimize debt structure and scale, ensuring that debt management aligns with high-quality development goals [4] Group 3: Tax System Reform - The plan calls for deepening tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations align with the capacity of microeconomic entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [6][7] - The macro tax burden has been decreasing since 2017, with projections indicating that tax revenue will account for less than 13% of GDP by 2024, which may not be sustainable given the fiscal pressures [6] - Tax incentives should be rationalized to avoid market distortions and ensure fair competition, while direct tax systems need to be improved to promote social equity [7] Group 4: Zero-Based Budgeting Reform - The introduction of zero-based budgeting is seen as a critical reform to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [8][9] - Challenges in zero-based budgeting include reconciling legal spending requirements with the need for more efficient budget allocations [8][9] - Successful implementation of zero-based budgeting has been observed in various regions, enhancing fiscal management and resource allocation [9] Group 5: Proactive Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand effective demand, support technological self-reliance, and promote rural modernization and high-quality employment [11] - The policy will also address demographic changes and focus on risk prevention in key areas to create a conducive environment for fiscal policy implementation [11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a foundational period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, necessitating strategic actions to overcome challenges and leverage opportunities [10][11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market may rebound after further corrections, with expectations of a choppy upward pattern in the short term as new catalysts are awaited [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index showed resilience, supported by the dividend and consumption sectors, while technology indices continued to face corrections [1][8] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a decline in the probability of a rate cut in December, impacting market liquidity and causing declines in Bitcoin and gold [2][9] Group 2 - China's economy showed signs of accelerated weakening in October, with consumption and fixed-asset investment declining, while credit growth also slowed [2][10] - Recent policy signals from the Chinese government remain supportive, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment [2][10] - Capital inflows into Chinese equities continued, with A-share equity ETFs recording a net inflow of RMB 8 billion, indicating ongoing investor interest [3][11] Group 3 - The technology sector has faced pressures due to external factors, including disappointing earnings from major companies and concerns over an "AI bubble" [4][12] - Despite short-term overvaluation in the tech sector, the report suggests that a significant downturn is unlikely without disruptive new technologies [4][12] - The report anticipates that if the tech sector stabilizes, it could lead to a broader market rebound, particularly benefiting underperforming sectors like brokerage firms [5][13]