Market Performance - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reaching new historical highs [1][2] - As of the close on July 10, the Dow Jones increased by 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,280.46 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.09% to 20,630.66 points [2] Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock price increased by 0.75%, marking its market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [2] - Tesla's stock rose by 4.73% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of plans to expand its Robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area [2] - Other major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple up 0.6%, Google up 0.59%, while Microsoft, Meta, and Netflix saw declines [2] Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600 points, indicating a positive outlook for the US stock market [3] - JPMorgan reported that potential capital inflows into the US stock market could reach $500 billion in the second half of the year, potentially driving a 5% to 10% increase in the S&P 500 by year-end [3] Federal Reserve Commentary - President Trump urged Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to take swift action to lower interest rates, criticizing the current rate policy as being too high [3][4] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a cut later in the year while others call for more data before making a decision [4] Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking the lowest level in two months [4] - The number of continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since the end of 2021, indicating challenges for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4] - Overall, the labor market data suggests stronger-than-expected conditions, which may reduce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]

美联储古尔斯比称，美联储大楼并非豪华建筑；这些建筑需要翻新，也需要高度的安全性。 ...

当地时间7月10日，美股三大指数集体上涨，纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数再创历史新高。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔迅速采取行动降息。而美联储内部对降息的日期也产生了一定分歧。 纳指、标普续创新高 截至当地时间周四收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.43%，报44650.64点；标普500指数涨0.27%，报6280.46点，创下新高；纳指涨0.09%，报20630.66点，连续两天刷新最 高纪录。 英伟达股价上涨0.75%，收盘市值首次突破4万亿美元，成为全球首家市值达到这一里程碑的上市公司，仅这一家公司的市值就超过了英国股票总市值。和今年4月 低点相比，英伟达股价已经上涨约90%。美国投行韦德布什分析师DanIves表示，预计英伟达的市值可能会在未来18个月内达到5万亿美元。 特斯拉股价上涨4.73%，消息面上，特斯拉CEO马斯克在其社交平台上宣布，公司计划将无人驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）服务扩展至美国加州旧金山湾区，并预期最 快可在"一两个月内"正式推出，具体时间取决于监管部门的批准进度。马斯克还表示，公司计划本周末扩大无人驾驶出租车在奥斯汀的服务范围。 其他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's mission is focused on employment and price stability, not on reducing government debt costs through interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve expressed confusion over the argument that the Fed should lower interest rates to reduce government debt costs [1] - The Federal Reserve's mandate is primarily concerned with employment and inflation control [1]

美联储古尔斯比：美联储大楼并非豪华建筑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing resilience despite ongoing tariff threats from Trump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion. Bitcoin also hit an all-time high [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that the market has become complacent regarding Trump's tariff threats, suggesting that investors believe he will back down as he has in the past [3]. - Dimon emphasizes the importance of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which could stabilize tariffs and provide a framework for future negotiations [3]. - The market is currently preparing for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate profits [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dimon indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is higher than market expectations, suggesting a 40% to 50% chance compared to the market's 20% [5]. - He attributes this higher probability to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and budget deficits, alongside global trade restructuring [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is critical, as market participants are divided on the likelihood of rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings Expectations - Analysts are skeptical about the earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies, with expectations for only a 2% growth in profits, the weakest in two years, primarily due to tariff uncertainties [8]. - Despite the low expectations, some analysts believe that growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, will still deliver strong results [8]. - There is a belief that the market's pessimism regarding the earnings season may be overstated, with potential positive surprises from improving corporate guidance and a weaker dollar [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in managing its balance sheet due to external factors, and it should continue to reduce the balance sheet size, but not as aggressively as some suggest [1] - Waller recommends reducing bank reserves from $3.26 trillion to approximately $2.7 trillion, which would bring the total balance sheet down to $5.8 trillion from the current $6.7 trillion [1] - The minimum "adequate" level of reserves is crucial for estimating how much the Fed can shrink its balance sheet without disrupting the overnight funding market [1] Group 2 - Critics argue that the Fed's balance sheet has grown too quickly in recent years and should be restored to pre-financial crisis levels, which were around $800 billion [2] - Waller believes that the larger issue for the Fed's balance sheet is the mismatch in the duration structure of assets, with too high a proportion of long-term assets [3] - Waller supports a "duration matching strategy," suggesting that about half of the Treasury investments should be in short-term bills [3] Group 3 - Waller reiterated that the current federal funds rate is too restrictive and may support a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, emphasizing that this view is a minority opinion within the Fed [3] - Waller has consistently advocated for lowering the policy rate since November 2023, provided inflation continues to decline [3] - Waller is recognized as a potential candidate for the next Fed chair, seen as a balanced choice who adheres strictly to data-driven monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 7.2% [1] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 65.4% and a 50 basis point cut at 4.9% [1] - The current interest rate is 4.25%-4.50%, with a 92.8% probability of being maintained in July, decreasing to 29.7% in September and 11.3% in October [4] Group 2 - The expected interest rate ranges for the upcoming meetings are as follows: 3.75%-4.00% has a 42.4% probability in October, while 4.00%-4.25% has a 43.3% probability [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% decreases significantly in the upcoming months, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - The core of the tariff policy under the Trump administration is an attempt to achieve economic goals through increased tariffs, but the consequences are more complex than anticipated [1] - Analysts on Wall Street identify the tariff policy as the biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, creating uncertainty for businesses and consumers [3] - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly impacted global trade dynamics, with various countries facing different tariff rates, such as 25% on Japan and South Korea, and up to 200% on key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [5] Group 2 - Despite the strong tariff measures, consumer inflation expectations have surprisingly decreased to 3.02%, the same level as before the tariff war began, although this optimism may be unfounded [6] - The progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations contrasts with the difficult negotiations with other countries, largely due to China's control over critical rare earth resources, which gives it leverage in discussions [8] - The overall effects of the tariff policies remain unpredictable, with potential inflation risks still present despite a temporary decline in consumer expectations [8]

美联储的翻新工程目前耗资高达25亿美元，比最初的成本高出约7亿美元。这些工程包括露 台屋顶花园、水景、VIP电梯和优质大理石。每平方英尺的成本为1923美元，是翻修一座历 史性普通联邦政府建筑成本的两倍。以今天的美元价值计算，凡尔赛宫的翻修成本为30亿美 元。 沃特讲话稍早，本周四美国总统特朗普再度催促鲍威尔降息。两天前，特朗普还拿美联储翻修问题说 事。他在白宫主持内阁会议时称，如果鲍威尔确实如批评者所指那样，在有关美联储总部翻修项目的问 题上误导了国会，那么他应立即辞职。 特朗普周二还再次批评鲍威尔，称其"糟糕透顶"，并表示，欺骗国会将是他迅速下台的正当理由。"那 他就应该立刻辞职。我们应该找一个愿意降息的人来接替他。" 上周，特朗普任命的 美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长Bill Pulte呼吁国会调查鲍威尔，因为他在参议 院关于美联储总部翻修计划的证词具有"欺骗性"。他说： 特朗普政府再度借美联储总部翻修的争议项目"攻击"美联储主席鲍威尔。 美东时间7月10日周四，白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特公布了他写给鲍威尔的一封信，信中 称，鲍威尔"严重管理不善"，暗示他在美联储总部耗巨资的"浮夸"翻修工 ...