Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. for August remained stable at 3.1%, while the overall CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% due to a lower base effect[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI rose from 0.32% in July to 0.35% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rebounded from 0.20% in July to 0.38% in August, exceeding market expectations[1] Labor Market Trends - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, down from 79,000 in July and significantly below the market expectation of 75,000[1] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August[1] - The average hourly wage growth showed a slight decline both month-on-month and year-on-year[1] Core Components Analysis - Housing CPI showed a significant increase, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 0.44% in August, primarily due to seasonal factors affecting lodging prices[2] - Super core service prices decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 0.22%, with transportation services being the only strong segment driven by rising airfare prices[2] - Core goods prices increased slightly by 0.07 percentage points to 0.28%, with clothing prices rising significantly due to seasonal changes[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, supported by the recent economic data[4] - The labor market's continued weakness and stable inflation data provide a basis for the anticipated rate cut[4] - Risks remain regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the potential for further rate cuts if labor market conditions deteriorate[4]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 967.94 tons of gold as of August 28, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.44 tons from the previous trading day, amid rising gold prices that surpassed $3400 per ounce [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 28, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 967.94 tons, marking a 5.44-ton increase from the prior day [5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings has occurred for four consecutive trading days [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On August 28, spot gold prices rose to a peak of $3423.2 per ounce, closing at $3416.78 per ounce, an increase of $19.3 or 0.57% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - Recent economic data indicates resilience in the U.S. economy, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to an annualized rate of 3.3% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and continuing claims fell to 1.954 million, both below expectations [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence have led to increased buying interest in gold [6]. - The technical outlook for gold remains optimistic, with prices trading above all moving averages and a relative strength index (RSI) above 50 [6]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3440 and $3500, while support levels are at $3360, $3350, and $3330 [6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the news revolves around the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which is expected to significantly influence the dollar's performance [1] - The U.S. dollar index is currently strong, hovering near a two-week high, with key resistance levels at 99.320 and 99.838, while support levels are at 98.317 and potentially 97.80 [1] - Market expectations are mixed regarding Powell's stance on interest rate cuts, with most institutions anticipating a neutral position without clear signals, despite concerns about a dovish tone [1] Group 2 - The August PMI data from S&P Global indicates strong momentum in both U.S. manufacturing and services, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above expectations, while the services PMI remains robust at 55.4 [2] - However, initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 235,000, surpassing expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, with continuing claims rising to 1.972 million [2] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, reaching an 11-day high, supported by favorable economic data and a cooling expectation for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - Technical indicators for the dollar index show strong upward momentum, with the RSI indicating that bullish forces remain strong despite a slight pullback [3] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum has weakened, indicating a shift towards bullish dominance [3] - Key support and resistance levels for the dollar index are identified, with short-term support at 98.317 and potential resistance levels at 98.950, 99.177, and 99.838 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have retreated due to strong U.S. employment data, but are expected to record a slight increase for the week overall [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - Strong U.S. labor market data has diminished expectations for interest rate cuts in the short term, putting pressure on gold [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has decreased for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak of decline since 2022 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Optimism regarding trade prospects is shifting investor sentiment towards risk assets, which is suppressing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Despite existing uncertainties, the overall investor mood is gradually moving away from gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant gains, with major indices reaching new historical highs, driven by strong corporate performances and investor optimism regarding potential monetary policy changes [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On July 10, the Dow Jones increased by 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,280.46 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.09% to 20,630.66 points, marking consecutive days of record highs [4]. - Nvidia's stock price rose by 0.75%, achieving a market capitalization of over $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone, surpassing the total market value of the UK stock market [4]. - Tesla's stock increased by 4.73%, following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of plans to expand its Robotaxi service in California [4]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts from major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are optimistic about the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600 points [5]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts potential inflows of $500 billion into the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year, which could lead to a 5% to 10% increase in the S&P 500 by year-end [5]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, lower than the expected 235,000, indicating a tightening labor market [8]. - However, continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest level since late 2021, suggesting challenges for those seeking employment [8]. - Overall, the labor market data is stronger than expected, which may reduce the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. labor market data as it may influence the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could impact gold prices significantly [1] Group 1 - The focus is on the U.S. labor market data and its potential implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for market participants [1] - The article suggests that gold may find support around the level of 3320, indicating a potential price point to watch [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising gold prices driven by a weakening dollar and increasing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade agreements, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Gold price reached $3339.29 per ounce, marking a 1.11% increase, the highest in three trading days, reflecting the unique appeal of gold in the current market environment [1] - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, which has intensified bullish sentiment towards gold [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming labor market data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, which will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have been in a bullish trend, with potential upward movement towards $3400 if certain support levels hold [3] - The possibility of a bearish trend exists if gold prices fall below key support levels, which could lead to a decline towards $2500 or lower, although this scenario is currently deemed unlikely due to expected interest rate cuts [3]

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