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关税最新解读:还有30%!未来这几个方向是谈判重点!特朗普新政策雷声大雨点小,创新药行情反转!
雪球· 2025-05-13 07:56
Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.13% [1] - The total market turnover was 13,260 billion, a decrease of 149 billion from the previous day [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The port shipping, photovoltaic equipment, banking, medical services, and precious metals sectors saw significant gains, while military, humanoid robots, intelligent transportation, and copper cable high-speed connection sectors experienced declines [2] Group 3: U.S. Market Reaction - U.S. stock markets surged after the China-U.S. tariff meeting, with the S&P 500 up 3.26%, Dow Jones up 2.81%, and Nasdaq up 4.35% [3] - Year-to-date declines for the Dow and S&P have narrowed to 0.32% and 0.64%, respectively, while the Nasdaq's cumulative decline is 3.12%, but it has rebounded over 20% from last month's low [4] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, with potential for further reductions depending on negotiations [8] - Future negotiations will focus on trade and market access, particularly the 24% tariffs and the 20% tariff on fentanyl [9] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Impact - Trump's recent executive order on drug pricing caused volatility in pharmaceutical stocks, with companies like BeiGene experiencing a drop of over 9% followed by a rebound of over 5% [11] - The executive order aims to link U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices in developed countries, potentially reducing prices by 30%-80% [15] Group 6: Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The photovoltaic sector showed strong performance, particularly in the silicon material segment, with companies like Euro Crystal Technology and GCL-Poly Energy reaching their daily price limits [17] - There are rumors of major silicon material manufacturers planning to acquire remaining production capacity and propose production cuts to stabilize prices [19] - Analysts remain optimistic about the growth of photovoltaic demand in the U.S. and globally, with expectations for supply-side reforms in the industry [20]
中美贸易关系大幅缓和,5月美股基金限购与溢价情况改善明显
雪球· 2025-05-13 07:56
以下文章来源于府库 ,作者府库 规划投资理财,温暖幸福生活 府库 . 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 府库 昨天下午3点A股刚一收盘,就眼看着港股一路直线拉升,伴随着的就是中美双方在贸易方面达成的协定,在 前一段时间互相加上的关税大幅下降,对市场也是实质性利好,恒生指数上涨2.98%,恒生科技上涨5.16%。 从今年开始时每个月会对美股的标普500ETF与纳斯达克100ETF的限购与折溢价情况进行跟踪,当下改善明 显,海外配置与多元类的投顾组合当下布局已经完全没有问题了。 01 场内折溢价跟踪 注意这个12%的溢价率也不是可以长期可以维持的,买的时候就买溢价正常的基金就可以。 来源:雪球 我们先来看折溢价情况,标普500ETF场内的基金不多,只有3只,除了国泰的标普500ETF 159612由于基金 限购问题,依旧保持着12%以上的溢价率,其他两只ETF的溢价率只有1%左右,溢价情况与成交量都完全满 足当下的配置诉求了。 | 基金代码 | 基金名称 | 2025年回报率(%) | 申购限额 | 基金规模(亿元) | 综合费率 | | --- | - ...
关税新进展!中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布!港股直线拉升!恒生科技涨超5%!股民:我还没上车...
雪球· 2025-05-12 07:19
中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布 据新华社, 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布,以下是声明全文: 中华人民共和国政府("中国")和美利坚合众国政府("美国"), 认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性; A股这边刚收盘,港股就直线拉升,截止发稿,恒生科技指数涨超5%,恒生指数、国企指数涨超 3%。 截至收盘, 今天A股也表现强势, 沪指涨0.82%,深成指涨1.72%,创业板指涨2.63%, 全市 场成交额13409亿元,较上日放量1185亿元。 一起来看今天的市场热点。 认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性; 鉴于双方近期的讨论,相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题; 本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神,继续推进相关工作; 双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取以下举措: 美国将(一)修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品(包括香港特别行政区和澳 门特别行政区商品)加征的从价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施,同时保留按 该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税;(二)取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令 和2025年4月 ...
战略聚焦核心资产
雪球· 2025-05-11 07:01
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 非完全进化体 来源:雪球 过去几年 , 我们部分持仓基于低市盈率 、 较高股息率筛选细分行业竞争格局稳固的中小市值龙 头公司进行投资 。 即便同样承受了经济景气回落的压力 , 但因买得足够便宜 , 整体还是获得 了一定相对收益 。 基本 " 躲开 " 了这一期间 , 消费 、 互联网 、 医药 、 新能源等领域核心 资产从估值高位持续回落的过程 。 去年下半年以来 , 内外部环境冲击及不确定性进一步加剧 。 缺少足够产业链地位的中小市值公 司 , 即便作为某一细分行业的龙头 , 盈利的稳定性也经常遭受各种考验 。 在行业竞争加剧与 外部利空冲击下 , 公司治理中的各种问题也更容易暴露出来 。 即便这些公司的管理层相比国内大多数企业已经属于最优秀的一批 。 但应知道 , 中国绝大多数 行业龙头公司的发展历程也才10-20年 。 有很多问题与考验尚未遭遇 , 最典型的诸如应对官僚 体系问题 、 股权架构制约问题 、 二代接班及职业经理人体系建立 、 全球化过程中应对各类政 策风险的能力 , 包括公平公开的对待各类投资者的 ...
全球资产比较之避险能力大争霸
雪球· 2025-05-11 07:01
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of global assets and identifies the best-performing safe-haven assets based on historical data analysis over the past 20 years, emphasizing the importance of risk-adjusted returns in investment strategies [4][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The recent market fluctuations have been more significant compared to previous years, with the A-share market performing relatively well, while the US stock market has experienced a notable decline of over 20% in the last two months [4][6]. - Long-term investors may view recent downturns as mere corrections, but those who entered the market in January may feel the impact of a 2.6%+ decline over a month [6]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Safe-Haven Assets - Important metrics for evaluating safe-haven assets include maximum drawdown, recovery time from drawdowns, and the probability of positive returns over various holding periods [11][12][13]. - The analysis includes various global stock markets, bond markets, commodities, and cash-like investments to determine their performance as safe-haven assets [14][15]. Group 3: Performance of Safe-Haven Assets - The analysis reveals that Chinese money market funds are the top-performing safe-haven asset, with only a 0.03% maximum drawdown and a 100% probability of positive returns over one year [19][21]. - In contrast, US short-term government bonds have a lower positive return probability of only 40% during low-interest periods, indicating their limited effectiveness as a safe haven [21]. Group 4: Comparison of Bonds and Gold - Chinese bonds exhibit a maximum drawdown of 14.52% with a high probability of positive returns over five years, while US bonds have a maximum drawdown of 51.76% and a less than 50% probability of positive returns annually [24]. - Gold has shown significant price increases recently but has also experienced substantial drawdowns in the past, highlighting the need for caution regarding its volatility [25]. Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The Indian stock market demonstrates the highest risk-return efficiency, with a 97.89% probability of positive returns over five years, outperforming US and Chinese markets [26][28]. - Emerging markets, such as Vietnam, show extreme volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 79.35%, indicating high risk for investors [29][30]. Group 6: Multi-Asset Strategy - A balanced risk parity strategy combining A-shares, Taiwanese stocks, US bonds, gold, and Chinese money market funds yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.134, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns compared to individual assets [34][35]. - This multi-asset approach provides stability and a high probability of positive returns over various holding periods, making it a viable long-term investment strategy [35].
石油天然气上游行业的思考
雪球· 2025-05-10 03:18
来源:雪球 世界大不同。因为很少出来买东西 , 我对物价的变化一直没有什么概念 。 今天趁着换轮胎的空当 , 顺便 去了一趟Cole ' s买鸡蛋 。 18个装的一盒鸡蛋 , 居然要13澳元 , 而且还限购每人两盒 。 单看鸡蛋 , 珀斯的生活成本已经翻了好几番 。 记得刚来澳洲时 , 一打鸡蛋不过3澳元左右 。 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: OilGas " 长安大 , 居不易 。 " 其实 , 这个世界本不复杂 , 复杂的 , 是人心 。 石油行业的复苏 , 在当前的地缘政治格局下 , 变得愈发扑朔迷离 。 连一些巨型石油公司 , 在过去十几 年中也表现出摇摆不定 。 一方面 , 欧洲的石油巨头为了迎合社会期待 , 拼命推动能源转型 , 结果却让壳牌和BP遍体鳞伤 。 最近 居然传出壳牌和BP要合并的消息 , 可我实在看不出这种合并有什么稳固的基础 。 壳牌这十几年的勘探业 务 , 难说毫无成绩 , 但也几乎找不到特别出色的亮点 。 至于BP , 其上游业务几乎已经千疮百孔 , 加 上过去五年激进的转型政策 , 导致公司流失了大量上游专业人才 ...
红利低波100为啥这么牛?
雪球· 2025-05-10 03:18
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 2.1 什么是红利低波100指数 ? 红利低波100指数 ( 代码 : 930955 ) 是中证红利低波动100指数的简称 , 由中证指数有限公司于 2017年5月26日发布 , 是一只以 " 高股息和低波动 " 为核心逻辑的指数 。 作者: 王博雅投资 来源:雪球 1 引言 红利低波100指数是仅有的2个五星级红利指数之一 。 它可以看做中证红利的升级版 , 在保持优秀分散性 的情况下实现了更高的收益和更低的波动 , 因此在市场上备受关注 。 图1 沪深300 、 中证红利与红利低波指数全收益对比 在之前 , 我已经对追踪中证红利的基金进行了分析。 今天我将对红利低波100指数进行简介 , 然后从 费用 、 规模 、 流动性 、 收益与分红频率 等几个关键角 度 , 对红利低波100ETF进行横评 , 看看谁最好 ! 2 红利低波100指数简介 红利低波100指数构成逻辑如下 : 1 中证全指中过去一年日均成交金额前 80%的公司 。 这是为了避免流动性过差 。 2 过去三年连续现金分红 。 这是为了确保公司具有良好的分红 ...
3个月100倍,超级妖股出现!股民:这也太离谱了!特朗普最新发声!对华关税势必要下调...
雪球· 2025-05-10 03:18
当地时间5月9日,美股三大指数集体高开并短线走高,盘中集体跳水转为弱势震荡。万得美国科技七巨头指数收盘小幅上涨,成分股涨跌互现,特 斯拉上涨4.72%。中概股涨跌不一,脑再生科技大涨72%。 特朗普最新发声!对华关税势必要下调。 01 特斯拉大涨4.7% 脑再生科技3个月100倍 中概股涨跌不一 ,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘下跌0.45%。部分中概股表现亮眼,截至收盘,脑再生涨逾72%,亿咖通科技涨超14%,极氪涨超 7%,名创优品涨逾6%,小马智行涨逾5%。 | 脑再生科技 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RGC 已收盘05-09 16:00:00 美东 | | | | | | 366.01 +154.01+72.65% | | | 1846人加自选 上一篇 > | | | US = LO | | | | | | 总市值 47.63亿 | 高 380.00 开 241.51 | 量 12.23万股 | | | | 额 3670.31万 | 低 232.94 换 0.94% | | 市盈TTM 亏损 | | | 盘后 351.01 -15.00 -4.10 ...
听巴菲特问答有感
雪球· 2025-05-09 04:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in investment while also highlighting the necessity for quick decision-making when the right opportunities arise. It argues that maintaining patience is essential for enabling rapid actions in investment scenarios [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The discussion at the Berkshire shareholder meeting reflected a shift towards more significant topics such as tariffs, national fortune, and government efficiency, contrasting with the usual light-heartedness [2]. - Warren Buffett and Abel's responses underscored the importance of quick action in investment, suggesting that patience and rapid decision-making are not mutually exclusive but rather complementary [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Skills - The article draws parallels between sports and investment, stating that the ability to make split-second decisions in sports is a result of extensive training, similar to how investment decisions require years of preparation and skill development [3]. - Key investment skills include business model analysis, competitive advantage assessment, financial analysis, demand analysis, and research strategies, all of which are essential for making informed investment decisions [3]. Group 3: Value Investing - Successful value investors often exhibit consistent patience, which is reflected more in the decisions they choose not to make rather than just the successful ones they execute [3]. - The article suggests that unlike sports, investment does not have a time constraint, allowing investors to take their time to observe and analyze before making decisions [3].
连续9年正收益的基金来了!
雪球· 2025-05-09 04:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment in funds that have consistently generated positive returns over the years, highlighting specific funds that have achieved this feat [35]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The "Guangfa Global Healthcare Index" fund has shown a consistent positive return for nine consecutive years, with a cumulative return of +150.64% and an annualized return of +6.23% over the past five years [2][5][9]. - The fund's latest net value is 2.2780, with a maximum drawdown of 24.05% and a fund size of 1.107 billion [2][5]. - Another fund, "Shenji," has also achieved nine consecutive years of positive returns, outperforming the "Guangfa Global Healthcare" fund in certain metrics [10][16]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that only funds with a long-term upward trend are suitable for long-term holding, as short-term fluctuations may not yield significant profits [7]. - It highlights that despite some funds showing poor performance in recent years, their long-term positive returns are commendable and indicate strong resilience [9][35]. - The "Xueqiu Three-Point Method" is introduced as a strategy for long-term investment and asset allocation, focusing on diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve stable returns [36].