近期，QDII基金的溢价风险频繁暴露。 据21世纪经济报道记者粗略统计，春节假期后两个交易日内，超过30只QDII基金公告提示了溢价风 险，涉及纳指ETF、标普500ETF、标普油气ETF、日经225ETF、原油LOF等产品。 批量提示溢价风险 2月25日午间收盘时段，纳斯达克ETF、标普500ETF、标普油气ETF、日经225ETF、巴西ETF等8只QDII 基金分别公告称，截至当日午间收盘，其二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额参考净值，出现较大幅度 溢价。 例如，个别产品二级市场价格较基金份额参考净值溢价幅度达到6%。 不仅如此，同一天，另有10只QDII基金通过公告，提示投资者关注其二级市场交易价格溢价风险。 若追溯至2月24日，春节假期后的2个交易日内，超过30只QDII基金发布了溢价风险公告。 其中，个别产品除了提示溢价风险，还同步采取了停牌措施。 2月25日凌晨，易方达基金公告称，为保护投资者的利益，原油LOF易方达于2026年2月25日开市起至当 日10:30停牌，自2026年2月25日10:30复牌。若该基金在公告日当日二级市场交易价格溢价幅度未有效 回落，基金可根据实际情况通过向深圳证券交易所 ...

（1）跨境ETF的概念 跨境ETF是指以跟踪境外资本市场证券作为成份券的指数并在国内证券交易所上市的ETF。简单地说， 跨境ETF就是"跟踪境外指数，境内上市交易"的ETF。跨境ETF是境内投资者投资境外市场的最有效的 途径之一，已受到投资者普遍欢迎。投资者常见的纳指ETF、标普500ETF等品种都是跨境ETF。 （2）跨境ETF的特点 近几年，跨境ETF产品越来越丰富，涵盖了全球主要经济体和市场。国内投资者只要开立证券交易账 户，即可以便捷地通过投资跨境ETF，实现全球资产配置。跨境ETF具有以下特点： ①海外投资便捷。投资者不需要开通海外账户及换汇，即可通过跨境ETF投资海外证券资产，实现全球 资产配置。 （4）跨境ETF如何受汇率影响 跨境ETF投资可以使用人民币进行申购、赎回和交易，资金由基金管理人换汇后投资于境外资本市场， 不占用个人的外汇使用额度。跨境ETF以人民币计价，外币升值有益于基金净值，反之亦然，人民币升 值则对基金净值不利。 选自深圳证券交易所基金管理部编著的《深交所ETF投资问答》（中国财政经济出版社2024年版） ②交易效率高。不同于国内A股ETF，跨境ETF可实现日内T+0回转交易 ...

Core Insights - A significant number of QDII active funds have outperformed the Nasdaq 100 ETF and S&P 500 ETF over the past two years, contrary to the common belief that active funds struggle to beat indices [1]. Fund Performance - The top-performing fund, "E Fund Global Growth Select A" managed by Zheng Xi, achieved a return of 170.48% over the past two years, surpassing the Nasdaq 100 ETF by over 130 percentage points [1]. - Other notable funds include "Jia Shi Global Industry Upgrade A" with a return of 109.37% and "Hua Xia New Era RMB" at 107.72% [1]. - The performance of these funds is attributed to significant adjustments in their holdings, particularly in overseas computing power and semiconductor stocks [4][6]. Stock Holdings - Zheng Xi's fund made substantial adjustments in Q2 2025, heavily investing in stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Microsoft, which contributed to a 43.28% increase in Q2 and a 20.4% rise in Q3 [4]. - The fund's net value continued to rise, with a 132.32% increase since April 8, 2025, and a maximum drawdown of only 8.75% [6]. Comparison with Other Funds - Other funds such as "Jia Shi Global Value Opportunity RMB" and "Hua Bao Nasdaq Select A" also performed well, but did not match the impressive returns of "E Fund Global Growth Select A" [11][13]. - Funds focused on AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and cryptocurrency concepts, like "Wan Jia Global Growth One-Year Holding A," showed more balanced holdings but did not achieve the same level of performance [9]. Market Trends - The overall market trend indicates that while the Nasdaq index has been relatively flat since November, the semiconductor stocks held by these funds have continued to rise, mitigating currency losses and widening the performance gap with the Nasdaq ETF [16]. - The strong earnings growth of major U.S. companies supports the ongoing rise in the stock market, with the median earnings growth of the Russell 3000 reaching a four-year high [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments through cross-border ETFs, particularly focusing on mature markets and core broad-based indices to mitigate risks rather than solely pursuing high returns [4][5]. Group 1: Cross-Border Indices and Characteristics - The number of cross-border indices listed in A-shares has increased, including new directions like FTSE Arabia and Brazil BOVESPA, enriching investment choices [7]. - Many investors have entered these cross-border indices without fully understanding their characteristics, leading to high premium rates for several products [7][8]. - It is advised that ordinary investors should observe new indices for a period to understand their valuation ranges and mechanisms before investing [8]. Group 2: Cross-Border ETFs Overview - Currently, there are 41 cross-border ETFs listed in A-shares, with a total tracking scale exceeding 186 billion, primarily focused on broad-based indices from the US market [13]. - The tracking scale of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 exceeds 140 billion, indicating a preference for mature market core indices among investors [13]. Group 3: Valuation Levels of Cross-Border Indices - The overall valuation levels of major global markets are considered high, particularly for the four major US indices, which are in a high range [10]. - The NASDAQ technology and South Korea semiconductor indices are also in a high valuation state due to narratives around AI and semiconductor sectors [10]. - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a significant increase of 34.75% over the past year, while the South Korea semiconductor index achieved an impressive 121.51% return [10]. Group 4: Premium Issues in Cross-Border ETFs - Premium rates are a critical issue in cross-border ETF investments, often influenced by domestic QDII product foreign exchange limits, leading to unexpected premium rates for smaller ETFs [21][22]. - It is recommended that ordinary investors avoid high premium products to prevent significant losses, especially when premiums exceed 3% [22][23]. - Some products, like the Brazil ETF and NASDAQ technology ETF, have premium rates close to 15%, indicating visible risks that should be monitored [23]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to avoid making decisions based on short-term emotions and subjective judgments, focusing instead on their risk tolerance and safety margins [24]. - Setting intervention rules and position limits in advance is suggested to better navigate market opportunities when they arise [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the psychological aspect of investing, likening the role of investment advisors to that of doctors providing comfort rather than concrete solutions, emphasizing the importance of psychological reassurance in times of market volatility [2][24]. Group 1: Psychological Effects in Investing - Investors often seek reassurance during market downturns, expressing a desire for confirmation that the market will recover, which reflects a need for psychological comfort rather than actionable advice [2][12]. - The concept of the "placebo effect" is introduced, highlighting how psychological factors can influence investor behavior and decision-making, similar to how placebos can alleviate pain through belief [3][10]. - The "nocebo effect" is also mentioned, where negative expectations can lead to adverse outcomes, illustrating how fear and anxiety can exacerbate market reactions [18][20]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Behavior - The article suggests that many retail investors fall into a cycle of poor decision-making due to market volatility, often leading to premature selling during downturns [13][15]. - It highlights the long-term performance of index funds, such as the S&P 500, which historically yields annualized returns of around 10-12% over extended periods, emphasizing the benefits of a buy-and-hold strategy [11][12]. - The discussion includes the importance of dollar-cost averaging as a strategy that can provide psychological comfort by reducing the impact of market fluctuations on investment costs [22]. Group 3: Role of Investment Advisors - Investment advisors are compared to medical professionals, with the notion that their role extends beyond providing financial advice to offering psychological support during turbulent times [2][24]. - The article argues that while psychological reassurance is valuable, effective investment strategies should also focus on educating investors about long-term market trends and rational decision-making [23][24]. - It concludes that the combination of psychological support and sound investment principles can help investors navigate market volatility more effectively [24].

Core Insights - The article reflects on the investment journey of the year, highlighting a strategic focus on convertible bonds and commodity futures, which yielded significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The initial investment strategy was conservative, focusing on high-priced low-premium convertible bonds and commodity futures, leading to over 50% returns early in the year [1]. - The strategy evolved to include a shift to low-priced convertible bonds as the market premium rates increased, ensuring steady gains without losses [1]. - The article emphasizes a flexible approach to trading, adjusting positions based on market movements, particularly in response to significant index fluctuations [1][4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The overall annual return was reported at 43%, with a more aggressive small account yielding 81.87% [2]. - The profit distribution across different investment categories was as follows: convertible bonds 51.55%, index options 26.69%, stocks 4.24%, commodity futures 15.12%, and QFII 1.68% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 anticipates a slow bull market with potential for short-term volatility, suggesting a balanced portfolio of 50% index futures, 50% convertible bonds, and 30% commodity futures [3][4]. - The article stresses the importance of adapting strategies based on market conditions, including decisive actions on stop-loss triggers and opportunities for additional investments [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the phenomenon of certain funds, particularly small-cap Hong Kong funds, being sold at high premiums intermittently, suggesting a potential trading strategy to buy during low premium periods and sell during high premium periods [5][6][10] - Specific funds that have shown high premiums include "Hong Kong Small Cap LOF" with a premium of 9.69% and "Guotou China Value LOF" with a premium of 8.63% as of September 24 [7][6] - The underlying reason for these high premiums is attributed to the small scale of the funds, making them susceptible to speculative trading [6][10] Group 2 - QDII commodity funds, particularly those related to gold, frequently experience high premiums due to factors such as purchase limits and rising underlying asset prices [10][12] - The "Gold Theme LOF" is highlighted as a fund that often sees significant premiums, with a recent premium of 18.43% [12] - The article also notes that the "National Investment Silver LOF" had a high premium but historically has not maintained such levels consistently [10][12] Group 3 - QDII stock funds, especially those linked to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, are also mentioned as having premiums due to quota restrictions and the strong performance of U.S. stocks [17][18] - The Nasdaq Technology ETF has been noted for maintaining a long-term premium of around 20% [17] - The article suggests that if premiums disappear, investors holding related funds might consider converting their holdings from off-market to on-market [17]

Core Insights - The 2025 Xueqiu Carnival held in Shanghai focused on macroeconomic outlook, industry investment opportunities, and asset allocation strategies, emphasizing "long-termism" and "asset allocation" as key themes for investors preparing for 2026 [2][4][11] Macroeconomic Trends - China's economic positioning and potential were highlighted, with ICBC International's chief economist Cheng Shi noting that China's economic advantages are systemic and comprehensive, acting as a "fast variable" and "stabilizer" in the global economy. He emphasized that Chinese assets are entering a value reassessment phase [4][6] - Cheng summarized two core viewpoints: the ongoing "East rises, West declines" trend in global asset allocation and the importance of integrating investments in both material and human capital to grasp future investment opportunities [4][6] Investment Strategies - Liu Gang from CICC pointed out that the Chinese market's excess liquidity continues to chase "scarce return assets." He noted that 2025 will exhibit many counterintuitive market characteristics, including diverse asset performance and significant asset rotation, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [6][11] - Liu suggested that credit expansion is a key explanatory factor for current market phenomena and provided guidance for 2026 investment directions, recommending alignment with credit expansion trends [6][11] Thematic Investments - The rise of quantitative strategies and index funds, especially ETFs, was emphasized as crucial for investors to build portfolios and achieve returns. The ETF market in China is expected to enter a golden development period over the next decade [11][33] - The focus on AI and dividend sectors for 2026 was recommended as a complementary strategy [7][11] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors were highlighted as key areas of interest, with AI driving significant changes. The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see innovations, particularly in drug development processes [22][23][24] - The semiconductor industry remains a focal point, with ongoing demand driven by AI applications and the need for advanced chips. The investment logic in this sector is expected to continue evolving [28][30] Market Dynamics - The discussion around AI's impact on various sectors, including the potential for human-like robots to enter a critical industrialization phase by 2026, was prevalent. The anticipated growth in robot production and application scenarios was noted as a significant investment opportunity [30][31] - The importance of understanding market cycles and constructing risk-aware portfolios was emphasized, with strategies focusing on both undervalued assets and sectors with high certainty of returns [38][39]

Core Insights - The 2025 Xueqiu Carnival highlighted "long-termism" and "asset allocation" as key themes, emphasizing the need for diverse and forward-looking strategies for investors in 2026 [1] - AI emerged as a central topic across discussions, indicating its pervasive influence on various sectors and investment strategies [1][17] Macroeconomic Trends - China's economic positioning is seen as a "fast variable" and "stabilizer" in the global economy, with a systematic comparative advantage that suggests a value reassessment of Chinese assets [3] - The ongoing "East rises, West declines" trend is expected to continue, with a focus on the integration of investment in both material and human capital as a core strategy for understanding Chinese modernization and future investment opportunities [3] Market Structure and Investment Strategies - The Chinese market is characterized by excess liquidity chasing "scarce return assets," with a notable divergence in asset performance despite a bullish market [5] - Credit expansion is identified as a key explanatory factor for market behaviors, influencing the relative performance of tech stocks and global asset flows, providing guidance for 2026 investment directions [5] - A recommendation for 2026 includes pairing AI investments with dividend-paying sectors to optimize returns [6] Diversified Investment Strategies - The rise of passive investment strategies, particularly ETFs, is emphasized as a crucial tool for investors, with China becoming the largest ETF market in Asia [9] - For aggressive investors, equity assets are expected to show significant advantages driven by corporate profit improvements and global liquidity, suggesting a "tech-first, then cyclical" market approach [9] - Conservative investors are advised to adopt a multi-asset, multi-strategy approach to smooth out volatility in their portfolios [9] AI and Technology Investments - AI is anticipated to drive significant changes across various industries, with a focus on long-term investment in companies that can define the future and possess strong competitive advantages [20] - The AI sector is viewed as being in the early to mid-stage of technological explosion, with high certainty for the next few quarters, although caution is advised regarding potential interest rate hikes impacting high-valuation sectors [21] Semiconductor and Robotics - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue benefiting from AI-driven demand, with investment logic not solely based on valuation but also on technological advancements and market dynamics [24] - The robotics sector is predicted to enter a critical industrialization phase, with significant investment opportunities arising from mass production and application scenarios [27] Thematic Investment Opportunities - Gold is highlighted as a long-term structural investment, influenced by monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a recommendation for a balanced approach between safety and growth [30] - The consumer sector is undergoing industrialization, with opportunities emerging from new demand and international expansion strategies [30] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is seen as a key area for investment, with a focus on companies that can leverage technological breakthroughs for growth [31]

外资买入中国资产，国内投资者也在全球不同市场投资。 A股投资海外市场、港股、中概股等T+0 ETF大合集来了！ 近几年以来，关于"全球投资"的话题越来越火热。 | 类型 | 44693 | 名称 | 规模(亿元) | 年初至今涨幅 | 溢折率 | 管理公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 605661 | 纳指科技ETF | 126.85 | 45.71% | 20.48% | 盖顺长城景等 | | | 159941 | 纳指ETF | 304.19 | 16.25% | 5.02% | 广发基金 | | | 513100 | 纳指ETF | 171.81 | 17.93% | 5.83% | 国泰基金 | | | 513300 | 纳斯达克ETF | 115.4 | 12.94% | 4.49% | 花直雷等 | | | 159501 | 纳指ETF嘉实 | 102.02 | 18.56% | 5.46% | 嘉实基金 | | | 159632 | 纳斯达克ETF | 99.87 | 12.08% | 4.06% | 华安基金 | | | ...