王爷说财经讯：破局美元霸权！中俄结算几乎全用本币！全球货币格局要变天了？ 2025年12月24日，一则重磅消息炸响金融圈：俄罗斯驻华大使——莫尔古洛夫正式表态，俄中已建立可靠的双边结算体系，几乎完全使用卢布和人民币进 行贸易结算。 这意味着中俄贸易中，美元彻底沦为"旁观者"，99.1%的交易都绕开了它！ 咱们普通人可能没感觉，但这事儿对全球金融圈来说，不亚于一场"地震"。为啥中俄要在这个节点彻底抛弃美元结算？这背后藏着怎样的考量？对咱们的 钱袋子、对全球货币格局又会有啥影响？ 01、俄中几乎完全用卢布人民币结算！ 先把事件来龙去脉说清楚。 首先得明确，这不是一时兴起的决定，而是中俄贸易合作深化的必然结果。 数据显示，中国已连续15年稳居俄罗斯最大贸易伙伴国地位，2024年两国贸易额就达到2448.19亿美元，俄罗斯也是中国第五大贸易伙伴国。 而在2020年，中俄贸易中本币结算比例还只有20%，短短几年就飙升到99.1%，这个增速足以说明双方合作的迫切性和坚定性。 更关键的是，两国已经搭建起独立于西方的结算通道，俄罗斯多家银行接入人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS），中方银行也加入了俄央行的SPFS系统，不用 再依赖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is accelerating, with significant growth in cross-border payments and recognition in global financial systems, marking a pivotal shift in its role in international trade and finance [1][2][4]. Group 1: RMB's Role in Global Trade - The RMB has become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally, with a 14.0% year-on-year increase in cross-border payments in the first half of the year [1]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has officially included the RMB in its clearing system, indicating a growing functional recognition of the currency in international financial infrastructure [1][4]. Group 2: RMB as an Operational Currency - The RMB is transitioning from a mere payment tool to an operational currency for multinational corporations, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors, as companies establish local supply chains and financing mechanisms [2]. - Major European companies, such as Volkswagen and BMW, are increasingly using the RMB for local procurement, production, and sales, creating a stable demand for the currency [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Liquidity - Multinational corporations are adopting the RMB not only to save on exchange costs but also for risk management and optimizing global liquidity structures, effectively using it as a functional currency [3]. - This shift is seen as part of the RMB's third upward cycle, supported by China's economic fundamentals and its transition from a capital-importing to a capital-exporting country [3]. Group 4: Institutional and Market Developments - The RMB's internationalization is supported by institutional frameworks and market innovations, with significant progress in offshore RMB market cooperation being recognized in bilateral policy agendas [4]. - The China Bank Frankfurt branch has become the first RMB clearing bank in the Eurozone, facilitating substantial RMB clearing volumes and enhancing cross-border economic flows [4]. Group 5: Diversification of the Global Currency System - The diversification of the global currency system, driven by geopolitical factors, presents a "window of opportunity" for the RMB, with a significant percentage of sovereign institutions planning to increase their holdings in Chinese assets [5][6]. - The RMB is viewed as a strategic asset for central banks, offering low correlation with Western assets, thus providing a hedge in investment portfolios [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's economy is expected to demonstrate strong resilience and vitality, with major economic indicators aligning with expectations, and the total economic output projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan by 2025 [1]. Group 1: Economic Advantages - China possesses three major economic advantages: the potential for catching up, the new technology revolution focused on digital and green technologies, and the advantage of a super-large market economy [4][5]. - The "catching up potential" indicates that China has a growth potential of at least 20,000 USD per capita GDP to reach the level of developed countries, primarily driven by the upgrading of consumption structure and the transformation of traditional industries [5][6]. - The super-large market economy advantage includes a significant consumer base, with 400 million middle-income individuals and the potential for 800-900 million individuals transitioning to middle-income status, which can significantly expand the consumer market [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Growth Drivers - The current economic growth in China is shifting from being driven by investment and exports to being driven by innovation and consumption [8][9]. - The focus on becoming a manufacturing powerhouse, a consumer powerhouse, and a financial powerhouse is essential for sustaining economic growth and enhancing the quality of development [9][10]. - A strong capital market and robust currency are crucial for bridging the gap between manufacturing and consumption, facilitating the necessary financial support for these sectors [10][11]. Group 3: Financial Market Development - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in selecting projects that are marketable, profitable, and have controllable risks, thereby improving resource allocation efficiency [10][11]. - The transition to a modern capital market system is necessary as China enters a phase of innovation-driven economic growth, with more funds expected to flow into capital markets rather than traditional banking [10][12]. - A strong currency is identified as a key indicator of a financial powerhouse, with the potential for the renminbi to become more internationally recognized as China's manufacturing and trade capabilities grow [12][13].

12月20日，KPResearch创始人、《培风客》作者陈大鹏、中信建投期货研究所联席负责人田亚雄、浙商期货首席策略师、投资咨询部总经理徐涛做客由华尔 街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办的「Alpha峰会」，对话帕黎斯资产管理集团董事长余志嘉，共同探讨了2026年大宗商品市场的走向。 KPResearch创始人、《培风客》作者陈大鹏表示，全球许多地缘不确定性并未消失，明年黄金逢低买入逻辑不变，按过去几年经验，逢低是从高点回撤 10%-15%。明年可能导致黄金回调的因素有两种：一是非常乐观的经济趋势，二是地缘局势缓和。但这种回调是买入机会，其结构性看多因素并未消失。 中信建投期货研究所联席负责人田亚雄认为，美联储影响力弱化，财政政策正成为主导。AI绑定太多以至于"大而不能倒"，但高投入并不一定能保证全要素 生产率往上跃迁，但AI投资或将持续，通胀或全面展开，美元信用将受损，美元指数或下破到80-70区间，商品可能提前反应，白银已在抢跑。 浙商期货首席策略师、投资咨询部总经理徐涛则提醒，明年美国市场某个阶段可能有较大波动。当美股波动时，不要说大宗商品，所有资产都会跌。所以明 年大宗商品最大风险点在美国市场，一旦出现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the establishment of a newly adjusted Chief Economist Committee by the China Securities Association, aimed at contributing professional insights for the "14th Five-Year Plan" of the capital market [1][2][11] - The committee consists of over 40 top experts from the securities and fund industry, indicating a significant integration of industry intellectual resources [1][2] - The committee's structure has been upgraded, with the addition of positions such as Secretary-General and Advisors, reflecting a shift towards a more professional and diverse team [1][5][8] Group 2 - The committee's first meeting focused on two main missions: providing recommendations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and enhancing the narrative around the Chinese stock market [2][12][13] - Key topics discussed included "RMB internationalization" and "increasing household consumption rates," which are crucial for the planning process [2][12] - The committee aims to serve as both a policy think tank and a voice for rational market expectations, contributing to the high-quality development of the capital market [2][12][13] Group 3 - The new committee features a diverse membership, including individuals holding significant administrative roles, which indicates a growing emphasis on the role of chief economists in leadership positions [9][10] - The committee's leadership includes prominent figures such as Guan Tao from Bank of China International as the Chairman and Dai Yan from Dongfang Caifu as the Vice Chairman [8][9] - The restructuring of the committee is seen as a response to the evolving complexities of the capital market, aiming to stabilize expectations and guide public discourse [13]

（文章来源：新华财经） 工行新加坡分行作为集团首家海外营业机构和新加坡人民币清算行，在中新建交35周年之际，将继续秉 持国际视野和专业匠心，在人民币国际化等方面不断开拓创新，为中新全方位高质量的前瞻性伙伴关系 贡献金融力量。 新华财经新加坡12月24日电（记者刘春涛）在中国人民银行数字货币研究所和新加坡金融管理局的共同 指导下，工行新加坡分行在总行支持下积极落实今年中新双边合作联合委员会（JCBC）宣布的数字人 民币合作成果，于近日成功开展数字人民币个人钱包境外充值的创新试点，为数字人民币消费再添新场 景，持续深化两国数字人民币合作。 此次试点是工行新加坡分行继实现数字人民币进出口贸易境内结算试点后，在数字人民币领域的又一重 要创新实践。新加坡游客仅需在数字人民币客户端注册钱包，便可通过工行新加坡分行个人手机银行， 使用在工行新加坡分行开立的账户完成数字人民币充值，在中国境内实现交通出行、旅游购物、餐饮住 宿等场景的便捷支付。 ...

出口信用保险以国家财政和国家信用为后盾，是支持我国产品、技术、服务、资本"走出去"的政策 性金融工具，也是我国《对外贸易法》规定的支持对外贸易发展的三大政策措施之一。中国出口信用保 险公司（以下简称"中国信保"）紧密围绕上海加快建设"五个中心"、强化"四大功能"等战略部署，持续 加大对高质量发展的金融服务。"十四五"期间，中国信保上海分公司累计支持上海市外贸出口及投资超 2650亿美元，向企业支付赔款22.19亿元，帮助企业减损近36亿元，出口信用保险在防风险、补损失、 促融资、拓市场，以及稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等方面充分发挥作用。 打好稳外贸攻坚战助力国际贸易中心提质升级 业务随之节节攀升。某欧洲买方项下，中国信保5次大幅追加信用限额，每次都为思格新能源带来更高 的成交量，为贸易双方不断深化合作打下坚实基础。在甄选优质买方的同时，中国信保帮助企业及 时"排雷"、精准"拆弹"，准确找出存在潜在风险的买方，帮助企业规避了近1.44亿元的损失。 提升跨境金融服务便利化强化国际金融中心影响力 近年来，出口信用保险因其逆周期的防风险、拓市场、助融资、增效益政策功效越来越受到重视， 已成为上海金融业支持申城外经 ...

12月2日，俄罗斯财政部正式启动首支以人民币计价的主权债券认购，这是俄罗斯首次发行以人民币计 价的主权债券。该债券分为两期：3.2年期目标票面利率为6.25%至6.5%，7.5年期利率上限设为7.5%。 在西方制裁长期化、美元和欧元融资受限、对华贸易顺差的背景下，俄罗斯首次发行人民币主权债具有 重要战略意义。一方面，本次发行拓宽了俄罗斯融资渠道，助推了其去美元化进程；另一方面，为投资 者提供了人民币投资工具，使其手中积累的人民币资金得到有效配置。此次发行还可为相关企业发行人 民币债券提供基准定价参考，提升市场定价效率。同时，中俄金融合作不断深化，人民币在俄罗斯主权 财富基金中的占比已从2022年初的31%升至2025年11月的57%，在跨境结算中的使用比例也持续提高， 显示人民币在实际融资和投资中的应用场景不断扩大，对人民币国际化进程具有积极推动作用。 责任编辑：赵思远 责任编辑：赵思远 12月2日，俄罗斯财政部正式启动首支以人民币计价的主权债券认购，这是俄罗斯首次发行以人民币计 价的主权债券。该债券分为两期：3.2年期目标票面利率为6.25%至6.5%，7.5年期利率上限设为7.5%。 远东点评： 远东点评 ...

这一天，恰与1978年12月18日党的十一届三中全会召开形成历史呼应。47年后的同一天，海南自贸港封关运作，向世界传递出中国坚定深化对外开放的明 确信号。 这不是一次普通的政策调整，而是东方主导全球化的里程碑，更是对国际地缘战略的主动变革。未来，我们将见证海南自贸港的蓬勃发展，以及围绕它展 开的精彩国际博弈！ 从1978到2025，中国开放升级深化 "封关"不是"封岛"，而是将海南全岛建成海关监管特殊区域，实施"一线放开，二线管住，岛内自由"的特殊政策。 "一线"指的是一线口岸，是从境外进入海南省的口岸。一线放开，指的是实施进口"零关税"、放宽贸易管理等自由化便利化措施。"二线"指的是二线口 岸，是从海南进入内地其他省份的口岸。二线管住，就是要对货物和税收实施精准管控。岛内自由，指在海南岛内，人员、货物、资金等各类生产要素的 流转会更加自由便利。 这是1978年以来，中国深化对外开放的重大举措。 封关运作后，海南自贸港的"零关税"商品范围从封关前的1900多个大幅扩展至约6600个，占全部商品税目的74%；企业所得税和个人所得税均执行15%的 优惠税率，打造全球极具吸引力的政策洼地。 2025年12月18日， ...

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced its closure operations on December 18, which has sparked significant public interest and discussion regarding its implications for economic development and consumer behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The closure operation is expected to further expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption, which has already begun to take shape [3]. - China is transitioning to a new economic phase that necessitates an increase in imports to meet domestic consumption upgrades, moving away from an export-driven model [3]. Group 2: Institutional Opening - Hainan Free Trade Port represents a model of institutional opening characterized by rules, management, and standards, differing from the more product-focused opening seen in Shenzhen during the 1980s [3][4]. - The core of Hainan's opening strategy focuses on high-standard service industry development, which relies on human interaction and subjective quality standards rather than rigid production metrics [4]. Group 3: Financial Connectivity - Hainan serves as a crucial link between offshore and onshore RMB markets, enhancing its role in the internationalization of the RMB [10]. - The establishment of financial tools like the Free Trade Account (FT Account) has enabled Hainan to issue RMB bonds in Hong Kong, facilitating capital flow back to the mainland [10]. Group 4: Regional Development - The policy benefits of Hainan's Free Trade Port are expected to extend beyond the Greater Bay Area, potentially making regions like Zhanjiang in western Guangdong new economic growth poles [11]. - Hainan is positioned to attract high-end service resources globally, which could lead to collaborative opportunities with the Greater Bay Area and beyond [11]. Group 5: Strategic Collaboration - Hainan is encouraged to lead in creating new service platforms that facilitate cooperation between the Greater Bay Area and ASEAN countries, thereby enhancing industrial upgrades through high-level services [12].