其观点上，目前只是受到风险偏好改善，贸易情绪和政府停摆的乐观预期，以及技术压力等造成的综合 性获利了结和抛售。但这些虽然幅度较大，但周期上，都是较短暂的。 等待风险偏好落地或降息预期升温，以及进入下个月时，再去又一次的长线看涨入场。 日内无重点关注数据，将继续留意贸易情况和美国政府停摆，以及降息预期地缘局势等等，在当下无变 化的情况下，走势偏向回落调整为主，一旦政府停摆落地，将开始寻找支撑做多入场。 展望今日周三，黄金开盘继续走低回落，延续昨日空头动力，一方面受到技术的进一步抛压，另一方面 市场对于中美贸易谈判以及美国政府停摆将结束的乐观预期利空压力，那么在停摆结束落地之前，金价 都将维持偏弱回落的走势为主。 回顾历史，贸易乐观的情绪乐观都只是一时的打压，中美及国际贸易之间都是长期性的博弈，再者，美 国政府停摆结束后，利空压力出尽，随之带来的是10月份经济数据的恶化，和对于年底及明年的降息预 期的提升。依然将再度提升降息前景和经济前景担忧，而助力金价再度走强。所以，关注这波遇阻调整 后再度入场的机会。 日图；金价昨日巨幅跳水坠落，收跌至5-10日均线下方，空头力量加强，但今日走势，在进一步走低触 及布林带中轨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]

美国旅游协会日前发布报告称，美国旅游经济每周损失约10亿美元。而白宫经济顾问委员会备忘录 指出，政府"停摆"会导致美国国内生产总值每周损失约150亿美元。 央广网北京10月22日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，美国联邦政 府"停摆"已满三周，两党仍然没有显现妥协迹象。 美国历史上持续最长的政府"关门"发生在特朗普第一个总统任期内，当时"停摆"了35天。如今，党 争僵局难解，不少分析指出，本轮"停摆"可能将刷新纪录。 据美国媒体报道，部分工厂的核武器组装设施将受到影响，相关设施将因人手短缺进入安全关停模 式。报道还称，美国医疗服务中断情况也在日益加剧。 有舆论分析指出，目前政府停摆带来的损失尚属初期阶段，但若停摆持续，包括美国家庭及小企业 信心受挫、消费投资受抑制，航空交通、国家安全风险加大、经济市场秩序混乱等累计效应将会大幅增 加。 ...

Yeah, that tells you pretty much everything you need to know. There's not going to be any resolution this week. I wouldn't even expect one next week.The White House is not engaged. It's clear to me from my conversations with Republicans on the House and Senate side that they're waiting for the White House to decide what they want to do here, whether there's anything that they want to offer to Democrats to make anything shake loose. They'll have their 11th vote.It will fail again. And we'll just keep repeati ...

Core Points - The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has begun mandatory furloughs for most employees due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, marking the first time in its history that such action has been taken [3] - Approximately 1,400 employees will receive unpaid furlough notices, with only 375 remaining on duty [3] - The shutdown has forced key facilities, including the Pantex Plant in Texas and the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee, to enter "safe shutdown mode" [3] - The U.S. currently possesses 5,177 nuclear warheads, with about 1,770 deployed, and the NNSA is responsible for the design, manufacture, maintenance, and security of these weapons [3] Government Shutdown Context - The federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1, 2023, due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over core issues such as healthcare-related spending [4] - The Senate failed to pass a new temporary funding bill before the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30, leading to the depletion of funds necessary for normal government operations [4] - Analysts believe that the ongoing political impasse may prolong the shutdown, exacerbating its negative impacts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the interplay between financial stability, international trade negotiations, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which are key factors influencing market sentiment and investment opportunities [2][3]. Group 2 - Recent financial reports from regional banks have alleviated concerns regarding credit quality, injecting confidence into the stability of the financial system [2]. - Upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Malaysia, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese Vice Premier, aim to reduce trade tensions, with both sides signaling a willingness to negotiate [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a critical point, being one of the longest in modern history, which poses significant challenges for fiscal policy and market stability [3]. Group 3 - In the gold futures market, the December contract has shown bullish momentum, with a recent price increase of $135, reaching $4348.3, although there are indications of a potential market top [1][4]. - Technical analysis suggests that the next resistance level for gold futures is at $4392.00, while a significant support level is identified at $4000.00 [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, with a vote of 50 in favor and 43 against, not reaching the required 60 votes [1] - The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has begun mandatory furloughs for most employees, marking the first time this has occurred since its establishment [1] - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance cooperation on rare earths and critical minerals, aiming to streamline approval processes for mining and processing facilities [1] Group 2 - Argentina's central bank announced a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the U.S. Treasury [2] - The Bank of Korea has not considered a currency swap with the U.S. Treasury, according to its governor [3] Group 3 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell by 0.24% to 97.08, while the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index decreased by 0.36% to 103.07 [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.12% to 46,706.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.07% to 6,735.13 points [5] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures increased by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 2.59% to $51.40 per ounce [6] - U.S. oil futures fell by 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel [7]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown is approaching three weeks, with significant implications for key agencies [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration has begun mandatory furloughs for most employees, marking the first occurrence of such a situation since its establishment [1] - The shutdown has forced critical facilities, including the Pantex Plant in Texas and the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee, to enter "safe shutdown mode" [1] - The inability of Congress to pass a temporary funding bill before the end of the fiscal year on September 30, due to major disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending, has led to the depletion of operational funds [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered its third week of a shutdown due to a budget impasse, affecting public institutions and federal employees, leading to increased public anger and dissatisfaction [1] - Major cities across the U.S., including New York, Los Angeles, Washington, and Chicago, witnessed large-scale protests against various policies of the Trump administration, with organizers claiming participation of millions [2] - In New York, over 100,000 people participated in the protests, including prominent political figures, with demonstrators holding signs and chanting slogans against immigration enforcement and other government policies [2] - In San Diego, California, approximately 25,000 protesters gathered to oppose government policies on immigration, healthcare, education, and trade, showcasing a wide range of grievances [2] - The Speaker of the House, Republican John Johnson, criticized the protests as gatherings of "hatred towards America," while President Trump responded with a satirical AI-generated video mocking the demonstrators [3] Summary by Sections Protests and Public Sentiment - The ongoing government shutdown has led to widespread public discontent, manifesting in large protests across the country [1] - Protests in major cities have drawn significant crowds, indicating a strong public reaction against current government policies [2] Specific Events and Participation - In New York, over 100,000 individuals participated in a demonstration, highlighting the scale of public opposition to immigration policies [2] - In San Diego, a gathering of around 25,000 protesters expressed discontent with various government policies, emphasizing the breadth of issues at stake [2] Political Reactions - The Speaker of the House labeled the protests as anti-American, reflecting the polarized political climate [3] - President Trump's response included a satirical video, indicating a dismissive stance towards the protests [3]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a "risk on" sentiment, with optimism surrounding a potential end to the government shutdown, leading to higher E-Mini S&P 500 futures [2][3] - All sectors in the S&P 500 are currently in the green, indicating broad market strength, although consumer staples have seen a slight pullback [3] Earnings and Key Companies - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies such as Netflix and Tesla are anticipated to be significant market movers, along with defense contractor Lockheed Martin and Coca-Cola, which may provide insights into consumer health [4] - Zion Bank Corp is set to report soon, with expectations for clarity on its balance sheet amid concerns regarding regional banks' exposure to credit market risks [5] Energy Market Insights - Crude oil prices are dipping, influenced by China's GDP growth of 4.8% in Q3, which, while decent, reflects a slowdown in economic momentum [7][8] - China has been reducing its strategic petroleum reserves, contributing to lower crude prices, while concerns about global economic growth persist [9][10] - Natural gas prices are spiking, up approximately 8.8%, driven by the EU's shift away from Russian energy and increased demand for liquefied natural gas [11][12] Commodity Market Trends - Gold futures saw significant trading volume, the highest since 2020, with GLD experiencing its largest volume spike since April 2013, indicating strong interest [14][15] - Despite a pullback in gold prices, positive inflows into GLD suggest continued investor interest, supported by central bank purchases and retail demand [16][17] - Silver and other precious metals like copper and platinum are also seeing upward movement in trade [17]