UNforex 1 月 9 日讯 在特朗普政府推进关税政策进入关键窗口期之际，美国最新公布的外贸数据出现超 出市场预期的变化。数据显示，10 月美国贸易逆差显著收窄，降至 2009 年以来的低位区间，这一结果 明显偏离此前市场的主流判断，也为本就复杂的宏观环境增添新的不确定因素。与此同时，围绕货币政 策走向以及美联储人事安排的讨论持续升温，政策信号与市场预期之间的博弈同步加剧。 此次贸易逆差改善并非全面性修复，而更多集中在少数品类。10 月美国黄金及其他金属出口金额明显 增加，对出口总额形成重要支撑；与此同时，医药产品进口规模显著下降，也在一定程度上压低了整体 逆差水平。此前高关税相关政策信号，促使部分企业提前调整采购与出货节奏，使短期数据波动被放 大。市场普遍认为，这类变化更多反映阶段性行为，其长期趋势仍有待观察。 尽管最新贸易数据在一定程度上缓解了对关税"反噬效应"的担忧，但政策层面的不确定性并未消退。美 国最高法院即将就政府是否可依据《国际紧急经济权力法》继续加征关税作出裁决，被视为影响后续贸 易政策的重要节点。即便部分关税措施面临限制，白宫仍可能借助其他法律授权重新施压贸易环节，使 贸易环境的不确定性 ...

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Key Takeaways Gold surged to fresh all-time highs above $4,300/oz after the Fed delivered its final 2025 rate cut, extending the metal’s powerful uptrend. The FOMC’s 25-basis-point cut and renewed Treasury purchases were ...

Group 1 - International gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on October 8, reaching a high of $4,081, but have since fluctuated around this level, indicating a loss of confidence in dollar assets as multiple central banks sell dollars and buy gold [4][6][18] - The U.S. is highly sensitive to gold prices, with a strong stance against allowing prices to rise to $5,000, reflecting a strategy to maintain the dollar's position [6][17] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, including the fifth cut on October 29, have been reactive rather than proactive, influenced by economic data and external pressures, highlighting the current economic dilemma faced by the U.S. [3][12][14] Group 2 - The trade war has seen a noticeable slowdown since August 12, with both sides pausing certain tariff measures and seeking negotiation space, which is closely tied to monetary policy adjustments [9][11][18] - The recent easing of trade tensions has contributed to a decline in inflation, with September's CPI dropping from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month, and year-on-year inflation at 3%, below the expected 3.1% [11][21] - The interplay between interest rate cuts, trade war dynamics, and gold price movements reflects a delicate balancing act for the U.S. economy, as each adjustment impacts overall economic stability and the international standing of the dollar [17][19][21]

Group 1 - Over 90,000 individuals experienced liquidations in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours, indicating significant volatility [1] - In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount reached approximately $123 million, with notable figures including $66.41 million in 12-hour liquidations and $29.37 million in 4-hour liquidations [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its 32nd day, impacting over 4.2 million Americans and causing delays in multiple economic data releases [2][3] Group 2 - Following a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, both gold and Bitcoin experienced a collective pullback, attributed to profit-taking and concerns over future uncertainties [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that further rate cuts cannot be guaranteed due to the government shutdown affecting economic report availability [3] - The U.S. Senate is scheduled for a crucial vote on November 3, which may determine whether a compromise can be reached between the two parties regarding the government shutdown [3]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading above 10,185, opening at 9,971 CNY/kg, and are reported at 10,247 CNY/kg, reflecting a 3.11% increase, with a high of 10,277 CNY/kg and a low of 9,964 CNY/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market has reached new highs, closing around 10,250 CNY/kg, with trading focused on buying on dips, while support levels are noted at 10,000 and 9,800 CNY/kg, suggesting potential adjustments around the National Day holiday [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - New Fed Governor Milan emphasizes his independence in analyzing economic data and will articulate his interest rate views, alleviating market concerns about the Fed's autonomy [3] - Milan supports a 50 basis point rate cut, arguing that current rates are significantly above neutral levels and that there are no evident inflation risks, particularly due to immigration policies affecting housing demand [3][4] - He predicts that rates need to be lowered by over one percentage point by year-end, warning that maintaining high rates could pose significant risks to employment targets [4]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the geopolitical and economic strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the importance of technology and leverage in their future growth [1][2][3] - The US is expected to rely heavily on technology and leverage after 2025, moving away from previous population growth strategies [2][3] - Both the US and China share similar goals regarding technological advancement, but their approaches and levels of commitment differ due to various factors [5][6] Group 2 - The competition between the US and China is characterized by a shared strategic framework, which is a notable aspect of the current geopolitical landscape [4][7] - The EU's foreign policy is complicated by its relationship with NATO, leading to mixed signals and a lack of a unified stance on security matters [9][10] - Eastern European countries tend to favor US involvement over European solutions due to historical experiences, which complicates the EU's diplomatic efforts [11][12] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the differing perspectives within the EU regarding security and foreign policy, leading to hesitations and inconsistencies [17][18] - The EU's future is uncertain, as it faces challenges in population growth, technological advancement, and maintaining fiscal discipline in a competitive global environment [18][20] - The historical context of US-Soviet relations influences current US strategies, while China's unique development path presents its own set of challenges [19][20]

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first time the U.S. has lost its AAA rating from all three major rating agencies [1][2] - The downgrade is attributed to the surging debt burden and unsustainable fiscal deficit, with predictions that the U.S. fiscal deficit could reach 9% of GDP by 2035 [1][2] - The timing of Moody's downgrade coincides with ongoing political challenges in the U.S., particularly regarding tax reform efforts that have stalled due to internal disagreements within the Republican Party [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is modifying its monetary policy framework, shifting focus from an average inflation target to a current inflation target, indicating a potential for more flexible monetary policy in the future [3][4] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping to 50.8, reflecting concerns over inflation and economic outlook [3][4] - The market's response to the downgrade and economic indicators suggests limited short-term impact, but long-term implications could be detrimental if fiscal deficits remain unaddressed [2][4] Group 3 - Trump's trade policies, particularly the tariff strategy, have been characterized as chaotic and lacking a coherent strategy, leading to market volatility and uncertainty [5][6] - The approach taken by Trump is described as "transactional," prioritizing outcomes over processes, which could undermine the U.S.'s long-term credibility and global trade order [6][7] - The upcoming economic data releases, including the European Central Bank's meeting minutes and China's retail figures, are anticipated to provide further insights into global economic conditions [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise of Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures to a near two-week high, driven by the dual benefits of the People's Bank of China lowering interest rates and reserve requirements, alongside trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The article raises the question of whether iron ore prices can enter a new round of increases due to these favorable conditions [1]