Trade Surplus Trends - China's trade surplus remains high, primarily due to the shift from processing trade to general trade, which has reduced import dependency [1][7][8] - From 2013 to 2015, despite a decline in export growth from 7.8% to -2.9%, the trade surplus increased by $192.94 billion [1][7] - The proportion of general trade surplus rose from 24.5% to 73.1% over the past decade, while processing trade fell from 60.4% to 10.4% [1][8] Industry Structure - Trade surpluses are concentrated in consumer goods and capital goods, with significant surpluses in textiles, electrical machinery, and automobiles [1][13][14] - The average surplus for textiles and clothing since 2017 has been $339 billion, showing stability [1][13] - Capital goods such as transportation equipment and electrical devices have seen surpluses increase by 6.7, 2.9, and 3.0 times since the first trade war [1][14] Country Structure - The largest trade surplus is with "Belt and Road" countries, followed by the United States, with the former primarily involving general trade and the latter processing trade [2][24] - As of June 2023, the surplus with "Belt and Road" countries surpassed that with the U.S. for the first time, accounting for 39.0% and 38.5% of total surplus, respectively [2][24] Formation of High Trade Surplus - Consumer goods maintain high surpluses due to self-sufficiency and price advantages, particularly in textiles where China produces 26% of global cotton [3][43] - The automotive sector benefits from technological advancements and cost advantages, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 355.5% since 2018 [3][54] - In capital goods, the high surplus is driven by reduced processing trade imports and enhanced export competitiveness, with a notable decline in imports of electromechanical products [3][65] Future Surplus Prospects - Industries expected to maintain high surpluses include consumer goods like automobiles and mobile phones, as well as capital goods such as electrical equipment [5][93] - The transition from processing trade to general trade is a key factor in the expanding trade surplus, supported by industrial upgrades and price advantages [5][87] - The automotive sector's import dependency has significantly decreased, with a notable increase in export growth, indicating a strong competitive position [5][93]

Trade Data Summary - In January-February 2025, China's total goods trade value was 6.54 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%[8] - Exports amounted to 3.88 trillion RMB, growing by 3.4%, while imports fell to 2.66 trillion RMB, down by 7.3%[8] - The trade surplus reached 1,226.06 billion RMB (170.52 billion USD), maintaining a high level despite the decline in trade volume[19] Export and Import Trends - Exports to the EU and the US saw significant declines, while exports to Japan increased slightly[9] - Major export products, except for mobile phones, experienced a downturn, particularly labor-intensive goods and automotive exports[14] - Import growth was weaker overall, with declines in most major imported goods except for soybeans and crude oil[18] Policy and Economic Outlook - The external trade environment is impacted by rising uncertainties, including increased tariffs from the US[4] - Domestic policies are expected to focus on boosting consumption and investment to expand domestic demand and support economic recovery[24] - The report highlights the importance of China's manufacturing position in the global economy, which contributes to the sustained trade surplus[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[25]

中国1～2月的整体出口为5399亿美元，同比增长2.3%。自2024年4月以来保持正增长。进口为3694亿美 元，同比减少8.4%。出口减去进口后的贸易顺差为1705亿美元。 中国对美出口增长放缓（2月，天津港，REUTERS） 中国的对美出口自2024年5月以来保持正增长。2024年12月增长16%。2025年1～2月放缓…… 中国海关总署3月7日发布的1～2月贸易统计（以美元计价）数据显示，对美国出口为755亿美元，同比 增长2.3%。与2024年12月相比增长放缓。美国2月4日对从中国进口的商品加征10%关税引起的紧急出口 被认为已告一段落。 由于美国总统特朗普在上任前提到提高对华关税，出现了抢先出口的紧急需求。 对美出口自2024年5月以来保持正增长。2024年10月以后，实现8%以上的高增长，2024年12月同比增长 16%。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京报道 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com ...

图1：1-2月进、出口同比增速大幅下行 资料来源：Macrobond、招商银行研究院 一、出口：增速下行，仍有韧性 2025年1-2月，我国进出口金额同比增速双双下行，出口保持韧性，进口大幅回落，贸易顺差同比保持高 速增长。按美元计价，进出口总金额9,093.7亿美元，累计同比下降2.4%。其中，出口5,399.4亿美元，同 比2.3%；进口3,694.3亿美元，同比-8.4%；贸易顺差1,705.2亿美元，同比扩张460.1亿美元（+36.9%）。 1-2月出口金额累计同比增速较去年12月大幅下行8.4pct至2.3%，基数效应和工作日天数减少是主因。 从 出口商品和地区情况看，美国关税政策的影响尚不明显。一方面，1-2月我国出口数据仅涉及2月4日美对 华进口商品加征10%全面关税的影响，该关税政策生效时间较短，且正值春节，对部分企业的出口冲击或 尚未完全体现；另一方面，近年我国对美出口依赖度下降，叠加产业链转移重构，可部分缓解关税冲击。 此外，海外制造业景气度稳定恢复及"抢出口"行为或形成支撑。 分商品看，部分原材料以及多数下游消费品增速下行，机电产品、以及高新技术产品增速保持较快增长。 钢材、铝材、成品 ...