新华财经北京11月13日电（崔凯）在美国联邦政府部分停摆导致关键经济数据发布中断的背景下，美联 储官员近期密集发声，围绕是否在12月继续降息展开激烈辩论。多位具有投票权与非投票权的地区联储 主席及理事在公开讲话中释放出截然不同的政策信号，反映出决策层在通胀顽固与劳动力市场走弱之间 的艰难权衡。 尽管如此，威廉姆斯认为将量化紧缩持续至11月底"完全合理"，并反对市场要求提前终止缩表的呼声。 他还重申常备回购便利（SRF）工具的有效性，鼓励银行积极使用，称其"无需担心污名化或其他障 碍"。 关于利率政策，威廉姆斯未对12月是否降息作出明确表态，仅强调"通胀高企且目前未见回落迹象，同 时经济展现出一定韧性"。他同时反驳了达拉斯联储主席洛根关于转向以回购利率为政策基准的建议， 坚持联邦基金利率仍是合适的政策锚点。 降息节奏争议升级官员立场两极分化 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）持续呼吁加快宽松步伐。他周三再次表示，当前货币政策"过 于紧缩"，应进一步降低利率以缓解经济下行风险。米兰主张单次降息50个基点，最低限度也应为25个 基点，并强调货币政策具有12至18个月的滞后效应，"若仅依据当前数据制 ...

波士顿联储主席柯林斯周三表示，虽然她在上月支持降息，短期内进一步宽松的门槛"相对较高"，主要 原因是通胀依然高企，而劳动力市场尚未出现明显恶化。 柯林斯在波士顿银行家会议上发表的书面讲话中指出："除非出现明显的就业市场疲软迹象，否则我将 对进一步放松货币政策持谨慎态度，尤其是在政府停摆导致我们缺乏足够通胀数据的情况下。"她补充 称："在当前高度不确定的环境下，保持利率在现有水平一段时间，可能更有助于平衡通胀与就业的风 险。" 柯林斯的言论凸显出美联储内部对未来政策路径的分歧正在加深。美联储主席鲍威尔两周前曾警告称， 尽管上月的降息决定获得"多数支持"，但12月是否再次降息"远未成定局"。 在10月会议上，美联储将基准利率区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，但出现两名异议者，堪萨斯城联 储主席施密德希望维持利率不变，而理事米兰则主张降息50个基点，认为通胀下降速度被市场低估。 此外，非投票委员中也存在分歧。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克倾向于"暂缓降息"，而旧金山联储主席戴 利则呼吁保持"开放心态"。 柯林斯指出，当前短期利率水平对经济来说仍属"温和紧缩"，但整体金融条件对增长构成一定支撑。她 承认劳动力市场 ...

今年FOMC票委，波士顿联储主席柯林斯周三表示，她认为短期内进一步降息的门槛"相对较高"，原因 是对通胀仍处高位的担忧。柯林斯上月投票支持降息。"除非出现劳动力市场明显恶化的迹象，否则我 会对进一步放松政策保持谨慎，尤其是在政府关门导致我们获得的通胀数据有限的情况下……在当前高 度不确定的环境下，为了平衡通胀与就业风险，维持政策利率在当前水平一段时间可能是合适的做 法。"她的讲话凸显出美联储内部存在的深层分歧。自上次降息以后，包括柯林斯在内的几位拥有投票 权和部分无投票权的美联储官员都释放出对降息日益谨慎的信号。柯林斯认为短期借贷成本目前处 于"轻度紧缩"区间，而金融环境总体上仍对经济增长构成顺风。劳动力市场的确出现放缓，但自夏季以 来下行风险并未加剧。（格隆汇） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant decline in employment within the U.S. private sector, with an average weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs over the four weeks ending October 25, leading to a total loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [1][5] - Multiple companies have announced layoffs, with Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reporting the highest number of layoffs for this time of year in over two decades, raising concerns about the health of the labor market [3][5] - Goldman Sachs has developed a new tool to monitor discussions about layoffs in earnings calls, revealing an increase in such discussions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence, although evidence linking AI directly to layoffs remains inconclusive [4][8] Group 2 - The ADP has started releasing more frequent labor market data, which shows a concerning trend of increasing layoffs amid low hiring rates and high difficulty for unemployed individuals to find jobs [4] - A composite layoff tracking indicator created by Goldman Sachs, which includes various metrics such as WARN notices and initial unemployment claims, has risen in October and is currently above pre-pandemic levels, indicating an increased risk of labor market deterioration [8] - The small business confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to a six-month low in October, reflecting a decline in optimism due to worsening profit conditions and declining economic sentiment [8][10]

美联储内部的"鸽派"声音再次响起，理事斯蒂芬·米兰继续打破传统，主张更激进的降息路径。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）周一公开表态，为美联储12月的利率决策点起一把火。他重申，支持在12月降息50个基点，认为这是"合适"的选 择，同时强调"至少"也应降息25个基点。 这位今年以来一直在美联储内部呼吁更大幅度降息的理事，在9月和10月的议息会议上都对仅降息25个基点的决策投下了反对票。 01 打破常规 在美联储内部，似乎正逐渐形成一种默契——每次议息会议前，米兰都会站出来呼吁更大幅度的降息。 这次也不例外，他在接受CNBC采访时表示，"应当以比传统25个基点更快的节奏推进降息。" 在美国政府停摆期间缺乏官方经济数据的情况下，米兰认为现有数据已经显示通胀和劳动力市场都有所走弱。 他特别提到，"我们获得了新的通胀数据，结果好于预期，这意味着相比9月的FOMC会议，采取更为温和的政策立场是合理的。" 03 内部分歧深化 米兰始终如一的坚持着自己的立场，如同此前两次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议一样，他再次主张降息50个基点。 "当然没有什么是确定的。从现在到会议之间，我们可能会看到让我改变看 ...

Labor Market Insights - The ADP report indicates an average job loss of 11,250 per week over the four weeks leading up to October 25, suggesting a weak labor market and contradicting the idea of stabilization [1] - There are concerns that the recent government shutdown and layoffs of federal workers may be affecting the job figures, with potential for a rebound in the coming weeks [3] - Mixed data points are emerging, including a decline in small business confidence due to falling sales and demand, which is significant as small businesses are major employers [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading suggests that while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, it is not worsening, leaving the Fed with a wide range of options for their December meeting [5] - The decision on whether to cut rates will depend on the balance between wage inflation and job market conditions, with upcoming official data being crucial for understanding the current economic situation [5][6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Senate reached a compromise to advance a spending bill aimed at ending the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025[1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) year-end target balance is maintained at approximately $850 billion, despite previous fluctuations due to the shutdown and other factors[1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3, marking a three-and-a-half-year low, while inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%[10] Group 2: Market Performance - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported Q3 earnings, with 82% exceeding EPS expectations and overall earnings growing nearly 12% year-over-year[2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since April, with tech stocks losing approximately $800 billion in market value[9] - Retail investors continue to buy on dips, providing support for the U.S. stock market despite high valuations[2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is debating the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for caution due to high inflation and economic data delays caused by the government shutdown[9][21] - Market expectations indicate one more rate cut in December 2025 and two additional cuts in 2026[23] - Risks include stronger-than-expected economic data that could delay rate cuts and weaken support for risk assets[3][24]

Core Viewpoint - The potential end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history may lead to the release of delayed economic data, but Federal Reserve officials are increasingly skeptical that this data will show the necessary weakness for another rate cut this year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials believe the labor market remains resilient, financial conditions are still accommodative, and inflation is trending in an unfavorable direction [1] - The likelihood of a third rate cut this year is rapidly diminishing unless the upcoming data shows significant surprises [1] - The futures market still prices in about a two-thirds chance of a rate cut in December, which may be overly optimistic [1] Group 2: FOMC Dynamics - Two moderate members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appear inclined to pause rate cuts until at least January [2] - Upcoming personnel changes in the FOMC may not lean entirely dovish, as hawkish members will join the committee [2] - Evidence suggests that moderate members who previously supported rate cuts may shift to support a pause if there is no clear evidence of labor market deterioration [2] Group 3: Labor Market Analysis - Four key reasons support the case for pausing rate cuts in December: high inflation, the need for slightly restrictive policy, resilient labor market conditions, and the time gained from previous rate cuts [3] - There is a consensus among Fed analysts regarding the current inflation and financial conditions, but the labor market remains the biggest uncertainty [3] Group 4: Employment Data Insights - Despite a surge in layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, private sector job growth remains strong, indicating a stable labor market [6] - Weekly unemployment claims data shows only a slight increase, suggesting stability in the labor market despite recent layoffs and the government shutdown [7] - High-frequency employment data from Homebase indicates that net job creation is hovering near zero, reflecting a potential slowdown in employment growth [9][10]

Core Insights - UBS expresses concerns about the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly the labor market, indicating significant underlying weakness that could pose serious risks to overall economic recovery [1][2] Labor Market Analysis - UBS's chief economist Jonathan Pinger highlights that the employment data reveals notable weakness, which may threaten the economic recovery [1] - The report notes a cautious approach from employers regarding hiring and layoffs, with a trend of "low hiring, low firing" observed throughout the year [1] - UBS warns that increasing business pressures could disrupt this balance, leading to potential job cuts and a stagnant hiring environment [1][2] Consumer Confidence - The report indicates that consumer confidence is being undermined, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropping to 50.3 in November, reflecting growing concerns about job prospects [1] - Rising unemployment risks are diminishing households' expectations for the future, while small business owners' confidence continues to decline due to inflation and labor market instability [1] Economic Outlook - UBS emphasizes that if hiring conditions do not improve, the U.S. economy may face significant downside risks, with a bleak labor market outlook suggesting severe challenges for overall economic recovery [2] - The report warns that a wave of layoffs combined with stagnant hiring could negatively impact consumer spending and household confidence [1][2]

Economic Overview - The economy has shown resilience with growth around 1.8% for the year despite uncertainties [2] - The labor market is near full employment but has shown signs of cooling, with demand and supply also cooling [2][5] - Inflation is currently closer to 3% rather than the target of 2% [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumption remains resilient, particularly among higher-income households benefiting from stock market wealth effects, while lower-income households are increasing their debt levels [6][7] - Real consumption growth is estimated to be similar for both high and low-income households, but the latter is relying more on credit card debt [7] Corporate Insights - Companies report that uncertainty has plateaued, allowing them to adapt to a higher level of uncertainty [11] - Many companies are facing higher costs related to tariffs and other non-interest costs, which they are attempting to pass on to consumers [11][21] - There is a concern among companies about the potential need to raise prices or cut jobs due to compressing margins [10] Labor Market Dynamics - Layoff announcements have been noted, but the overall labor market remains stable, with weekly claims indicating no significant deterioration [14][15] - Consumer balance sheets are generally healthy, although there are concerns about subprime loan defaults and credit card defaults stabilizing [8][9] Monetary Policy Considerations - The real federal funds rate has declined by 250 basis points over the past year, with a focus on supporting the labor market and addressing inflation [19][26] - Companies are more concerned about rising non-interest costs than interest costs impacting their pricing strategies [20][21] - The current monetary policy stance is viewed as modestly restrictive to neutral, with a need to balance inflation control and labor market support [26] Financial Stability Concerns - Asset prices are considered elevated relative to historical standards, with notable valuations in both housing and stock markets [29][30] - Financial conditions are described as accommodative, which may contribute to elevated asset valuations [30]