特朗普的关税给美联储带来了两个相互矛盾的挑战。首先，它们提高了价格，削弱了降息的理由。其 次，关税削弱了信心和需求，从而加强了降息的理由。 迄今为止，美联储一直专注于第一种风险，自去年12月以来一直将利率目标维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 美联储可能很快就要转向第二种风险。 越来越多的证据表明，尽管征收了关税，但通胀比人们担心的要温和，而劳动力市场可能正在恶化。 美联储下周开会时不必采取行动。与去年9月相比，现在的紧迫性有所减弱，当时的利率整整提高了一 个百分点，失业率上升带来了衰退的气息。未来几个月，关税效应可能会更加明显。 但美联储官员在展望和言论中需要承认风险正在发生变化。他们也可以拍拍自己的胸脯，因为经济的发 展实际上与他们九个月前开始宽松政策时的预期基本一致。 问题在于关税是否会推动趋势走高。好消息是，在过去几个月里，这一趋势有所缓解。 通胀率迟迟未能回到美联储2%的目标，一个关键原因是服务价格的顽固不化，而这在很大程度上要归 咎于住房成本的降温速度比经济学家和美联储根据私人房租数据所预期的要慢。 但现在不一样了。专门研究通胀数据的独立预测师谢里夫（Omair Sharif）说："我们在住房方面的 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧元区经济迄今表现出相当的韧性，得益于强劲的劳动力市场。 ...

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the U.S. immigration landscape are distorting the employment market, making it harder for investors and policymakers to accurately assess the actual slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - A reduction in immigration supply could lead to a tighter labor market, potentially suppressing the rise in unemployment rates, despite being a temporary and artificial effect [1] - Recent data shows a decrease of 696,000 jobs in May, the largest single-month drop since the historic decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, with some economists attributing this decline to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Growth Metrics - The "breakeven" employment growth value, which indicates the net new jobs needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population and maintain stable unemployment rates, is declining [4] - Morgan Stanley economists noted that the average monthly "breakeven" employment growth was 210,000 last year, dropping to 170,000 this year, and projected to fall to 90,000 by the end of the year and 80,000 next year [8] - Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics predicts that due to weak labor supply growth, the "breakeven" employment growth is rapidly approaching 50,000 per month [8] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The low unemployment rate may persist but could be due to misleading reasons, as indicated by Sweet [9] - If predictions hold true, monthly job growth in the U.S. may continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate, creating a confusing signal for investors and policymakers [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the labor market's stability and low unemployment, but acknowledged the need to examine a broader set of labor market indicators for a more accurate assessment [10] Group 4: Immigration Projections - The Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration to be 2 million this year and 1.5 million next year, down from 3.3 million in 2023, but these estimates may be overly optimistic given the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration [11] - Morgan Stanley economists have significantly revised their net immigration forecasts down to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, suggesting a potential "false" tight labor market with monthly non-farm job growth far below 100,000 [11]

Group 1 - The UK labor market has shown signs of accelerated weakness since April, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in nearly four years at 4.6% for the period of February to April 2025, which is higher than both the previous year and the prior quarter [1][2] - Employee income growth is slowing down, with wages excluding bonuses increasing by 5.2% and including bonuses by 5.3% for the same period, which is below market expectations [1][2] - The number of job vacancies in the UK labor market has been declining, with 736,000 vacancies reported for March to May, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous quarter, marking the 35th consecutive quarter of decline [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the labor market is attributed to rising employer costs, including an increase in national insurance tax by approximately £25 billion and a minimum wage increase of about 6.7%, which have led to reduced hiring intentions among businesses [3] - The retail sector has been particularly affected, with a reported decrease of 93,000 employees year-on-year, indicating a significant impact on employment levels [2][3] - The rising costs of hiring, with full-time recruitment costs in retail up by 10% and part-time costs up by 13%, are contributing to the overall strain on the labor market [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of labor market weakness has prompted expectations that the Bank of England may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, leading to a depreciation of the British pound against the US dollar [4] - Industry leaders are calling for government intervention to support businesses through effective industrial strategies and to expedite the training of skilled workers as a crucial measure to improve the labor market situation [4]

英国国家统计局：劳动力市场持续走弱，领取薪资的就业人数显著减少。劳动力空缺调查显示，企业推 迟招聘新员工或者取代旧的员工。 ...

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

金十数据6月6日讯，斯巴达资本首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，本次非农数据虽略超共识预期及 我个人预测，但除时薪指标外，整体报告并未传递出美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号。事实上，0.4% 的时薪涨幅虽谈不上显著，但已足够引人注目——这直接锁定了美联储的观望立场。尽管就业市场确现 降温迹象（显然归因于贸易战引发的不确定性抑制企业招聘），但归根结底，这份报告料难引发市场大 幅波动，我只能将其归类为平庸之作。 经济学家：非农报告整体未传递美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号 ...

金十数据6月6日讯，机构分析师就美国非农报告表示，失业率保持稳定，工资增长超出预期，工资时薪 小幅上涨，这将平息人们对劳动力市场开始大幅放缓的担忧。5月就业人数增幅超过预期中值，但前两 个月的累计下修为95,000人，远远抵消了5月超出预期的影响。分析师指出，制造业就业人数减少8000 人并不是特朗普政府希望看到的。毫无疑问，我们将听到白宫经济团队发出预测，即随着包括苹果在内 的许多公司承诺在美国的投资开始，这种情况将会好转。 分析师：美国失业率保持稳定 劳动市场大幅放缓的担忧将平息 ...