Core Insights - The Chinese consumption market experienced a strong start in 2026, with significant growth in domestic travel and spending during the New Year holiday, indicating robust economic vitality and consumer enthusiasm [8][11] Transportation - The total cross-regional movement of people reached 595 million during the holiday, with an average daily increase of 19.62% compared to the same period in 2025 [9] - Railway passenger volume was 48.1 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 52.66% [9] - Road movement accounted for 539 million people, with a daily average increase of 15.7% [9] - Waterway passenger volume was 2.25 million, with a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [9] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 5.88 million, with a daily average increase of 10.4% [9] Consumption Trends - Domestic travel reached 142 million trips, with total spending of 84.79 billion yuan, reflecting strong consumer enthusiasm [8][11] - Restaurant consumption grew by 2.8%, while key pedestrian streets and business districts saw daily foot traffic and sales increase by 5.9% and 4.9% respectively compared to 2025 [9] - Sales of smart health devices increased by 20%, and smart wearable devices saw a growth of over 15% [9] - Energy-efficient home appliance sales grew by over 10%, indicating a shift towards higher quality and more sustainable consumer products [9] Regional Highlights - In Beijing, key monitored enterprises reported a cumulative sales of 4.04 billion yuan, with a daily growth of 16.3% [10] - Shanghai welcomed over 6.82 million tourists, achieving a total tourism consumption of 12.27 billion yuan [10] - Guangdong province's tourism revenue increased by 39.8% year-on-year, with a total of 99.8 billion yuan [10] - Hainan's duty-free shopping surged by 93.8% on January 1, indicating a strong demand for luxury goods [10]

Group 1 - The core event is the launch of the Bank of China UnionPay Great Wall Joy PLUS credit card, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and providing better financial services [1][2] - The credit card features unlimited benefits such as unlimited airport lounge access, unlimited roadside assistance, and unlimited cash back on cross-border transactions, emphasizing a customer-centric service approach [1] - The collaboration between China UnionPay and Bank of China marks a new phase in integrating financial resources and linking consumer demand, contributing to the construction of a new development pattern [2] Group 2 - The launch event took place on January 8, 2026, in Shanghai, highlighting the long-standing partnership between China UnionPay and Bank of China [1] - The credit card aims to stimulate market vitality by offering various promotional activities and rewards to cardholders, thus enhancing the overall consumer experience [1] - The product is available through both online and offline channels of Bank of China, making it accessible for consumers to apply and learn more about the offerings [1]

Core Insights - The influx of Russian tourists to Sanya has surpassed visitors from other countries, prompting local hotels to adapt by training staff in Russian language skills to enhance customer service [1][3] - The demand for Russian-speaking tour guides has surged, with daily wages reaching 500 yuan, reflecting a significant shift in the tourism landscape [3] - Sanya's hotel prices have increased due to the high demand from individual travelers booking through overseas platforms, despite a decrease in group bookings [3][9] Group 1: Sanya's Tourism Dynamics - Russian tourists are increasingly favoring Sanya as a vacation destination due to the challenges in obtaining Schengen visas, leading to a 200% increase in travel agency orders for Hainan [9][11] - The local economy is benefiting from the high spending power of Russian visitors, who are engaging in various activities such as dining and wellness treatments, significantly boosting hotel and restaurant revenues [3][11] - The introduction of direct flights from multiple Russian cities to Sanya has facilitated this tourism boom, with 25 weekly flights currently operating [11][12] Group 2: Harbin's Tourism Growth - Harbin is experiencing a surge in Southeast Asian tourists, with a 57% increase in bookings for winter tourism products, driven by the newly established direct flight routes [6][15] - The appeal of Harbin lies in its unique winter experiences, which are now more accessible due to reduced travel complexities, attracting tourists who previously found it difficult to visit [14][15] - Local businesses in Harbin are enhancing their services to cater to Southeast Asian visitors, including providing warm amenities and language support, which has improved the overall tourist experience [27] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Russian tourists are shifting from traditional beach relaxation to a deeper cultural engagement, seeking experiences that include local traditions and wellness practices [25][27] - The long-term stay of Russian families in Sanya is reshaping the local accommodation market, with increased demand for serviced apartments and long-term rentals [25] - In Harbin, the focus on customer service and comfort for Southeast Asian tourists is becoming a competitive advantage, with businesses adapting to meet the specific needs of these visitors [27]

Group 1: National Subsidy Policy - The new "National Subsidy" policy, with an initial funding of 62.5 billion yuan, aims to boost consumption upgrades and improve livelihoods by focusing on large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs for consumer goods [2][4] - The 2026 subsidy rules have been optimized compared to 2025, with specific adjustments for automobiles and home appliances, including a 15% subsidy for energy-efficient products and a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [2][7] - The inclusion of smart glasses in the subsidy program reflects the government's support for the smart wearable industry and aligns with the trend of consumption upgrades [3][4] Group 2: Smart Glasses Market - Smart glasses are transitioning from niche products to practical tools for various scenarios, including education, workplace efficiency, and fitness monitoring, which is attracting attention from major tech companies [5][6] - The domestic retail market for smart glasses is expected to recover significantly this year, with companies like VITURE expanding their presence in key urban areas [3][6] - The smart glasses segment is projected to experience substantial growth, with the global AI glasses market expected to reach 6.653 billion yuan in 2025 and 18.209 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Group 3: Home Appliances and Environmental Focus - The 2026 subsidy policy emphasizes energy-efficient home appliances, with a focus on products meeting level 1 energy or water efficiency standards, which is expected to enhance the market share of green products [7][8] - The policy changes are anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacities and drive companies to invest more in R&D for high-end, eco-friendly products [7][8] - The shift towards level 1 energy-efficient products is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions, reinforcing the social value of green consumption [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The adjustment in subsidy policies is likely to lead to a decline in sales for lower-efficiency products while promoting higher-efficiency alternatives, thus influencing consumer purchasing behavior [9][10] - The smart consumer electronics sector is experiencing high growth, with online retail sales of smart wearables increasing by 23.1% from January to October 2025, indicating a strong demand for intelligent and experiential products [10]

Core Insights - The influx of Russian tourists to Sanya has significantly increased, surpassing visitors from other countries, leading to a shift in local hospitality practices and language training for staff [1][2] - Sanya has become a preferred destination for Russian travelers due to its favorable climate and cultural familiarity, while Harbin attracts Southeast Asian tourists seeking unique winter experiences [4][10] - The changing demographics of tourists are prompting local businesses to adapt their services and offerings to meet new consumer preferences [25][26] Group 1: Russian Tourists in Sanya - Russian tourists now dominate the visitor demographic in Sanya, with hotel staff learning Russian to cater to this market [1] - The demand for Russian-speaking tour guides has surged, with wages reaching 500 yuan per day, comparable to Japanese guides [1] - The number of Russian tourists booking trips to China has increased by 3.5 times since the introduction of visa-free entry, with Sanya accounting for 88% of bookings [2][3] Group 2: Changes in Tourist Behavior - Russian visitors are not just looking for leisure; they are interested in cultural experiences, leading to a rise in demand for local cultural activities and wellness services [20][21] - The average stay for Russian tourists has lengthened, with many opting for longer-term accommodations that allow for a more local lifestyle [19] - Approximately 35% to 40% of Russian families are traveling with children, increasing the demand for family-friendly activities in Sanya [20] Group 3: Southeast Asian Tourists in Harbin - Southeast Asian tourists are increasingly visiting Harbin, with a 57% year-on-year increase in bookings for winter tourism products [3] - Direct flights from Southeast Asia to Harbin have made travel more accessible, allowing tourists to experience winter activities without lengthy layovers [12] - Harbin is enhancing its service offerings to cater to the needs of Southeast Asian visitors, including providing warm amenities and language support [23][24] Group 4: Economic and Service Adaptations - The growth in Russian and Southeast Asian tourism is prompting local businesses to adjust their service protocols to better meet the needs of these new demographics [25][27] - The integration of local payment systems and services has improved the overall experience for Russian tourists, with 80% of transactions now conducted in local currency [9] - The hospitality industry is witnessing a shift from traditional Western markets to neighboring countries, highlighting the importance of regional tourism dynamics [16][26]

Core Insights - Hema's CEO announced that the company expects a revenue growth rate exceeding 40% by 2025, with its annual GMV projected to surpass 100 billion yuan [1] - The growth is driven by Hema's expansion into 40 emerging cities, achieving high initial sales performance in these locations [1] - Other brands like Starbucks and Lululemon are also accelerating their presence in non-first-tier cities, indicating a broader market shift [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant shift in China's urban development, with a reversal of the traditional trend of population influx into first-tier cities, leading to increased consumer activity in emerging cities [3] - The 2024 migration index for second-tier cities and above shows a decline, with more individuals choosing to stay in their hometowns for work [3] - Over 130 cities are projected to experience net population growth by the end of 2025, with 17 of the top 30 cities being second-tier or below [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The influx of new residents, including internet professionals and entrepreneurs, is driving higher income levels and consumer willingness in emerging cities [5] - The fast-moving consumer goods market is stabilizing, with three to five-tier cities contributing 80% of the market's growth [5] - A significant majority of non-first-tier cities reported positive retail sales growth, with many third-tier cities exceeding the national average [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Mismatch - Despite rising consumer demand, the supply chain in emerging cities has not kept pace, leading to a mismatch [7] - Consumers face challenges in accessing high-quality products, as local supermarkets primarily offer traditional goods [7] - The lack of modern retail experiences in emerging cities limits consumer engagement and frequency of purchases [7][9] Group 4: Brand Strategies - Major brands are capitalizing on the supply-demand gap by expanding into emerging cities, offering established product lines and service models [10] - Hema's strategy includes leveraging a national supply chain to provide high-quality products directly to consumers in these cities [12] - Other brands, such as Haidilao and Luckin Coffee, are also expanding their presence in lower-tier cities, indicating a trend towards market saturation in these areas [12][14] Group 5: Future Outlook - Emerging cities are becoming essential markets for brands, transitioning from experimental zones to critical battlegrounds for growth [14] - There is significant potential for continued consumer growth in these areas, necessitating brands to tailor their offerings to local demands [14] - The development of local policies and infrastructure will be crucial in unlocking the full consumer potential in emerging cities [14]

Group 1 - The Jinan Sam's Club has established a temporary membership processing office at 1288 Huayuan East Road, which will officially start operations on January 16, along with online and offline membership channels [1] - The Jinan Sam's Club is located at the intersection of Phoenix North Road and Phoenix Road, covering a total area of approximately 80,500 square meters, with a total investment of 830 million yuan, and is a key project for urban renewal in Jinan High-tech Zone [3] - The expected annual revenue after opening is projected to reach 3 billion yuan, and Walmart plans to establish multiple cloud warehouses in Jinan to further boost online consumption [3] Group 2 - The construction of the Jinan Sam's Club is nearing completion, with decoration and outdoor projects progressing rapidly, and the store has fully entered the opening preparation phase [5] - Once operational, the project will effectively enrich the consumption landscape in Jinan, promote quality upgrades in consumption, and collaborate with surrounding commercial entities to create a "commercial uplift zone" along Jinan Industrial South Road [6] - This development aims to better meet the demand for high-quality and diverse consumption from residents of the泉城 and surrounding urban groups, injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of Jinan's trade industry [6]

Group 1: National Subsidy Policy Overview - The new round of "National Subsidy" policy has been implemented with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term government bonds to stimulate consumption and improve livelihoods [1] - The policy focuses on large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods, covering key areas such as automobiles, home appliances, and digital smart products, while also addressing public concerns like installing elevators in old residential areas and equipping elderly care facilities [1][6] - Compared to 2025, the subsidy rules for 2026 have been optimized, with specific subsidies for automobiles based on price and a 15% subsidy for energy-efficient home appliances, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [1][6] Group 2: Digital and Smart Products - The 2026 subsidy policy has expanded to include smart glasses, reflecting government support for the smart wearable industry and aligning with trends in consumption upgrades [2] - Smart glasses are transitioning from niche products to practical tools for various applications, including real-time translation for students and efficiency enhancement for professionals [3] - The inclusion of smart glasses in the subsidy program is expected to accelerate market growth and meet consumer demand for high-tech products [2][3] Group 3: Impact on Home Appliances - The 2026 subsidy policy emphasizes energy efficiency, with support limited to first-level energy-efficient or water-efficient products, thereby promoting green consumption [6][8] - The policy aims to increase the market share of energy-efficient products, with over 90% of home appliances updated to first-level efficiency during the previous years [7] - The adjustment in subsidy categories is expected to drive companies to enhance their R&D efforts towards high-end and green production [6][8] Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The smart wearable market, particularly AI glasses and smartwatches, has shown significant growth, with online retail sales increasing by 23.1% from January to October 2025 [8] - The subsidy adjustments are designed to align with current consumer preferences for high-quality and intelligent products, effectively stimulating new consumption potential [8] - The changes in subsidy policy are anticipated to create a positive cycle of hardware proliferation, ecosystem prosperity, and user growth in the digital consumption market [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company "爷爷的农场" is expanding its product line from baby food to family food in response to declining birth rates and slowing growth in the baby food sector, while facing challenges related to product quality management due to reliance on OEM production [1][4][7]. Group 1: Business Performance - "爷爷的农场" ranked second in the domestic baby food market with a market share of approximately 3.3% and first in the organic segment with a market share of about 23.2% in 2024 [3]. - Revenue for "爷爷的农场" was 6.22 billion yuan in 2023 and is projected to reach 8.75 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 23.2% to 7.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The gross margin for the baby food business is close to 60%, while the family food business has a gross margin of over 44%, contributing to an overall gross margin exceeding 57% [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The baby food market in China has been experiencing a decline in growth rates, with the growth rate dropping from over 15% in 2018 to less than 7% in 2022, directly linked to changes in birth rates [3][4]. - The family food market is seen as a more sustainable growth opportunity, with "爷爷的农场" expanding its offerings to include products like buffalo milk and organic condiments, aiming to capture a larger share of this market [6][8]. Group 3: Product Strategy - "爷爷的农场" plans to increase its SKU count from 158 at the end of 2023 to 269 by the end of the third quarter of 2025, with a significant focus on family food products [6]. - The company relies heavily on OEM production for nearly all its products, raising concerns about quality control and management of manufacturing partners [7]. Group 4: Consumer Insights - There is a growing demand among new parents for "natural, healthy, and functional" food products, with over 70% of millennial parents willing to pay a premium for high-quality items [10]. - The children's food market is projected to grow significantly, with the baby food market expected to reach 559.1 billion yuan in 2024 and the children's food market around 2.14 trillion yuan, potentially exceeding 3 trillion yuan by 2027 [9].

西南证券主要观点如下： 回顾2025年 2025年初截至12月31日，申万家电指数指数上涨9.1%，在申万行业中涨幅排名第24。 西南证券发布研报称，整体而言，2026年在高基数及需求提前消化的大背景下，家电行业仍将处于恢复 期，但也迎来了"国补"和"关税"两大事件影响下的新常态。该行认为中国家电行业作为毫无争议的世界 第一，其中，优秀的公司及蕴含的新赛道都仍存长期投资价值。建议关注主线一：逆境方显龙头本色， 关注龙头公司高性价比，高分红。主线二：关注出海赛道。主线三：消费升级仍是长久趋势，体验提升 +创新品类值得关注 整体而言，2026年在高基数及需求提前消化的大背景下，家电行业仍将处于恢复期，但也迎来了"国 补"和"关税"两大事件影响下的新常态。该行认为中国家电行业作为毫无争议的世界第一，其中，优秀 的公司及蕴含的新赛道都仍存长期投资价值。 主线一：逆境方显龙头本色，关注龙头公司高性价比，高分红 基本面来看，从2025年下半年来看，国补收紧，边际效果递减已经定局。国内需求的提前透支，以及地 产及消费习惯变化导致的需求减少，该行认为内销目前需要一个较长的恢复期，因此，一方面外销占比 更高的个股受到的边际影响 ...