欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

土耳其统计局：土耳其5月消费者信心指数为84.8点，4月为83.9点。 ...

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调⽑棕榈油出⼝专项税 66% 20250519 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调毛棕榈油出口专项税 阿 根廷大豆收割率达66%领先于去年同期 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 | | | | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3825.00 | -0.96 | 1 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 65. 33 | 1.10 | 0.57 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61.93 | 1.14 | 0. 58 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1051.00 | -0. 21 | -0. 02 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 291. 80 | -1.52 | -0. 17 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48.92 | -0. 81 | -0. 39 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 96 | 0. ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Impact - The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, with an initial value of 50.8, marking the second lowest in history [1][9] - Consumer perceptions of their current financial situation have reached the lowest level since 2009 [9] Group 2: Price Increases by Retailers - Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon stated that due to the current scale of tariffs and thin profit margins, the company cannot absorb all cost increases, making price hikes unavoidable [1][3] - Price increases are not limited to non-essential goods; essential items like bananas have seen price rises from $0.50 to $0.54 per pound [3] - A survey by cross-border e-commerce platform Joor found that 85% of fashion brands plan to raise prices due to tariff costs, with 96% of U.S. retailers and 82% of non-U.S. retailers also planning price hikes [3] Group 3: Specific Company Actions - Companies like Stanley Black & Decker and various fashion brands have already implemented price increases, with Stanley announcing price hikes for tools and outdoor products [3][5] - Ford Motor Company plans to raise prices on three models produced in Mexico by up to $2,000, effective at the end of June [5][6] - Luxury brands such as Hermès and Ferrari have also announced price increases in response to rising tariffs [6] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. retail sales growth slowed in April, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1%, significantly down from a revised 1.7% in March [9] - The ongoing tariff policies have led to public confrontations between President Trump and major retailers, including Walmart and Amazon, regarding price increases and tariff impacts [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The latest consumer confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 50.8, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and indicating a growing pessimism about the economy and personal financial situations among consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index has decreased for five consecutive months, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment [1][4]. - The index has fallen approximately 30% since January 2025, attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies [4][11]. - The current economic conditions index stands at 57.6, down 3.7% month-over-month and 17.2% year-over-year, while the expectations index is at 46.5, down 1.7% month-over-month and 32.4% year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is facing rising inflation and unemployment, with Federal Reserve officials warning of potential economic stagnation [6][12]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a GDP contraction of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth in three years, which, combined with low consumer confidence, suggests a challenging economic environment [16]. - Retail giants like Walmart are planning to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs, indicating that consumers may soon experience higher prices [15]. Group 3: Implications of Economic Trends - The combination of high unemployment, rising inflation, and slowing economic growth aligns with the definition of stagflation, a scenario that the U.S. may be approaching [14]. - The Federal Reserve's warnings about inflation volatility and the potential for prolonged supply shocks present significant challenges for the economy and monetary policy [10][12]. - Consumers are advised to increase savings and manage high-interest debt in anticipation of potential economic difficulties, which could further diminish consumer spending and accelerate the decline of the "consumer myth" [18][19].

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.8 in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022, and has declined for five consecutive months [1] - The index decreased by 2.7% month-over-month and 26.5% year-over-year, falling 30% since January [1] - The current conditions confidence index fell by 3.7% month-over-month and 17.2% year-over-year, while the future conditions confidence index decreased by 1.7% month-over-month and 32.4% year-over-year [1] Group 2 - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April, while the five-year inflation expectation increased to 4.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [1] - Nearly three-quarters of consumers surveyed mentioned the impact of tariffs on the economy, indicating that uncertainty in trade policies complicates future planning [1] Group 3 - Several publicly traded companies, including Walmart, Ford, and United Airlines, have announced the cancellation or postponement of their earnings forecasts for the remainder of the year due to frequent changes in U.S. government tariff policies [2]

外汇经纪商Monex美国公司交易业务负责人胡安•佩雷兹（Juan Perez）表示，尽管有很多数据，但消息 面在占主导地位。由于贸易领域情况变化很快，未来也没有指引，数据并没有真正反映出人们的焦虑。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1152美元，低于前一交易日的1.1178美元；1英镑兑换1.3278美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3299美元。 1美元兑换145.90日元，高于前一交易日的145.68日元；1美元兑换0.8390瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8362瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3985加元，高于前一交易日的1.3966加元；1美元兑换9.7871瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.7397瑞典克朗。 编辑：王春霞 新华财经纽约5月16日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国消费者通胀预期继续走高，16日美元兑一揽子货币全 面走高，美元指数在隔夜市场下跌，当日早间弱势盘整，随后由跌转涨，午后窄幅盘整，尾盘时美元指 数上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.21%，在汇市尾市收于101.092。 密歇根大学当日发布的初步调查数据显示，美国消费者5月份信心指数为50.8，低于市场预期的53和4月 份的52.2 ...

自中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识后，美股市场接连反弹走高。 当地时间5月16日，美股三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨0.78%，标普500指数涨0.7%，纳斯达克指数涨0.52%。本周以来，道琼斯工 业指数涨3.41%，标普500指数涨5.27%，纳斯达克指数涨7.15%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42654.74 | 331.99 | 0.78% | 0.26% | | 2 | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19211.10 | 98.78 | 0.52% | -0.52% | | 3 | SPX | 标普500 | 5958.38 | 41.45 | 0.70% | 1.30% | 欧洲股市方面，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.3%，法国CAC40指数涨0.42%，英国富时100指数涨0.59%。本周以来，德 国DAX指数涨1.14%，法国CAC40指数涨1.85%，英国富时100指数涨1.52%。 | ...

自中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识后，美股市场接连反弹走高。 当地时间5月16日，美股三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨0.78%，标普500指数涨0.7%，纳斯达克指数涨0.52%。本周以来，道琼斯工业指数涨 3.41%，标普500指数涨5.27%，纳斯达克指数涨7.15%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42654.74 | 331.99 | 0.78% | 0.26% | | 2 | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19211.10 | 98.78 | 0.52% | -0.52% | | 3 | SPX | 标普500 | 5958.38 | 41.45 | 0.70% | 1.30% | 欧洲股市方面，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.3%，法国CAC40指数涨0.42%，英国富时100指数涨0.59%。本周以来，德国DAX指 数涨1.14%，法国CAC40指数涨1.85%，英国富时100指数涨1.52%。 | ...

在通胀预期方面，消费者预期未来一年价格将以7.3%的年增速上涨，为1981年以来最高水平；而对未 来5至10年的年均通胀预期也上升至4.6%，创1991年以来新高。 此次调查是在4月22日至5月13日期间进行的，恰逢中美达成临时协议，同意在贸易谈判期间暂时互相减 少部分关税。然而，即便如此，密歇根大学消费者调查主管Joanne Hsu指出："临时的暂停并不足以让 消费者相信贸易政策已趋于稳定，从而放心地进行长期消费或投资规划。" 数据显示，接近四分之三的受访者自发提及关税问题，显示贸易政策持续成为消费者经济预期的关键影 响因素。这一担忧跨越党派界线，甚至有大量共和党支持者也表达了类似的忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，美国密歇根大学公布的最新数据显示，美国5月消费者信心指数意外下滑至50.8， 不仅低于4月的52.2，也创下历史第二低水平，仅高于2022年6月创下的最低纪录。这一结果低于外媒对 经济学家调查中几乎所有的预期值，凸显出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪。 尽管消费者对物价上涨的忧虑加剧，近期通胀数据却呈现出放缓迹象。美国政府公布的数据显示，4月 份扣除食品和能源后的核心消费者价格指数连续第三个月涨幅低于预期，表 ...