Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with prices rising to $4027 before retreating back to around $4000, indicating ongoing competition between bulls and bears [1][3]. Market Analysis - The recent trading session saw gold prices surge by $50, reaching $4027, followed by a quick decline back to the $4000 level, suggesting a lack of sustained bullish momentum [1][3]. - The market is expected to continue its oscillation, with resistance levels at $4020 and $4050, while potential support levels are identified at $3965 and $3928 [4][6][7]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has created panic, with ongoing budget bill rejections and increasing partisan conflict, leading to significant impacts on the stock market and benefiting gold prices [7][8]. - The absence of key non-farm payroll data due to the government shutdown has distorted labor market perceptions, which may further influence Federal Reserve expectations and contribute to gold's price adjustments [8]. Upcoming Indicators - The upcoming release of the U.S. October CPI and retail sales data is anticipated to create market volatility, especially given the current government shutdown [9]. - The ability to accurately assess market direction and entry/exit points is crucial for investors in the gold market, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [9].

黄金市场震荡回升：多空分歧下的价格图景与投资参考 对于下周金价走势，散户与机构出现明显预期分歧。散户群体态度更为乐观，55%的投资者认为金价将 继续上涨，仅28%认为会下跌，17%预期维持横盘；而机构则相对谨慎，仅32%的分析师看涨，9%看 跌，高达59%的分析师认为将持续横盘整理。 市场普遍认为，若金价能突破4030美元阻力位，或将开启进一步上涨通道；若失守3950美元支撑位，则 可能引发新一轮回调。 二、国内市场价格 国内黄金消费市场价格保持稳定，各大品牌金饰价格鲜有变动。周大福、金至尊、潮宏基等品牌金饰克 价均报1268元，六福珠宝1266元、周生生1267元，菜百首饰与中国黄金分别以1238元、1248元略低于行 业平均水平。 银行金条价格则呈现实时波动状态，农行金条价格最高为945.20元/克，中行最低为928.73元/克，工 行、建行分别为933.96元/克、932.70元/克。此外，黄金回收价格报898元/克，为持有黄金的民众提供了 清晰的变现参考。 2025年11月以来，黄金市场结束连续两周的大幅回调，呈现温和上涨态势。本周（11月3日-9日）黄金 价格周涨幅达0.32%，整体在3930美元至 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold jewelry prices is primarily due to a new tax policy implemented on November 1, which has restructured the gold market dynamics [1][3][23] Tax Policy Changes - The new policy differentiates between gold for investment and gold for non-investment purposes, effectively changing how gold is taxed and sold [3][7] - Previously, gold jewelry retailers received a special invoice allowing them to deduct 13% VAT, but this has now been replaced with a regular invoice that only allows a 6% deduction, increasing their tax burden by 7% [5][9] Impact on Retail Prices - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have raised retail prices to pass on the increased costs to consumers, leading to a significant price hike in gold jewelry [5][9] - For example, a typical wedding set of gold jewelry now costs approximately 2000 yuan more due to the new tax implications [9] Resale Market Challenges - Individuals selling gold jewelry face difficulties as they cannot provide a VAT special invoice, leading to lower buyback prices from recycling companies [11][13] - The disparity between market selling prices and buyback prices has widened, with individuals potentially receiving only 700 yuan for a gram of gold that sells for 1000 yuan in the market [13] Investment vs. Consumption - The new policy has effectively separated the investment and consumption aspects of gold, making gold jewelry less of a store of value and more of a luxury item [17][19] - Consumers are now encouraged to focus on the design and brand value of gold jewelry rather than its investment potential [19][21] Recommendations for Consumers - Consumers should prioritize purchasing from reputable sources that ensure the legitimacy of gold products, especially for wedding jewelry [19][21] - For those looking to invest, financial products like gold ETFs and bank-stored gold are recommended over physical gold bars due to lower transaction costs and better liquidity [17][21]

Group 1 - The price of gold continues to rise, leading to increased consumer interest in gold jewelry and investment, which has also attracted fraudulent schemes targeting unsuspecting individuals [1] - A case was reported where an individual lost over 40,000 yuan due to a scam involving a fake "gold rebate" advertisement that lured him into a fraudulent trading platform [1] - The scam involved deceptive tactics such as fake credentials, promises of high returns, and manipulation of perceived account growth to encourage further investments [1] Group 2 - Authorities warn that phrases like "small investment, high return" are common indicators of scams, advising the public to avoid transferring money to unknown accounts or investing in unregulated platforms [2] - In case of suspicious activities or if someone falls victim to a scam, individuals are encouraged to report to the police or contact anti-fraud hotlines for assistance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, particularly around the $4000 per ounce mark, have raised questions about its investment value, with a notable increase in inflows into gold ETFs despite recent price corrections [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - After reaching a new high of $4398 per ounce in late October, COMEX gold has since corrected and is currently stabilizing around $4000 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce on November 7 [1]. - The total net subscription for gold ETFs has reached approximately 273 million shares since the beginning of November, indicating strong investor interest [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Performance - Several gold ETFs have experienced a rebound, with some products seeing a cumulative increase of over 3% from November 5 to November 7, 2023 [4]. - The largest domestic gold ETF, Huaan Gold ETF, has seen a net subscription of 69.7 million shares, while another ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF, followed closely with 67 million shares [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Fund managers suggest that the recent adjustments in gold prices are primarily due to a temporary easing of risk aversion, but the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to support gold's long-term performance, with recommendations for investors to consider a systematic investment approach in gold ETFs, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5% to 15% [5][6].

换资前言： 各位投资朋友，周末愉快，一周交易结束了，今天你是轻轻松松在家享受着周末时光，还是焦灼不已到 处翻阅文章，为自己满手亏损的单子着急，天气越来越寒冷了，但是离冬季也越来越近不是吗，我们都 想在市场中分一杯羹，回家过个肥年，但是你却亏损越来越严重，资金不断缩水，如果你正处在这种状 态，金晟富建议你先停下来，停止这种错误的交易，找到一位良师，至少能帮你改变局面挽回亏损，操 作上谁都能经历过牛市熊市。有时候感觉难熬并不要觉得没有了盼头，在亏损的时候不断积累经验，吸 取教训，中间做一些总结，金晟富可以带你走出困境，一次选择，终生受益。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 现货黄金本周在4000美元附近维持窄幅震荡，缺乏明确方向。地缘政治风险暂时退居次位，而美国政府 关门导致关键经济数据推迟发布，使市场陷入"信息真空"。在此背景下，投资者正转向美联储官员讲 话、美元走势与美国股市波动，以寻找下一步线索。随着美国政府停摆创下历史纪录，经济学家们越来 越难以判断经济健康状况，而这种不确定性正逐渐传导至黄金市场。分析师表示，他们正在从股市和美 元走势等其他领域寻找方向。多数分析师认为，黄金的长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in gold tax policy in China have led to significant price discrepancies in the gold market, affecting both retail prices and recovery rates, with a notable increase in costs for consumers [1][7]. Market Phenomenon - The price of gold jewelry has surged to 1268 yuan per gram, while bank investment gold bars hover around 930 yuan per gram, indicating a clear distinction based on purchase intent: consumption versus investment [3]. - Consumers are exhibiting caution in their purchasing decisions, with some opting to delay purchases until after the release of CPI data, reflecting concerns over potential price corrections [3]. - The gold recovery market is active but characterized by significant price gaps, with recovery prices from major brands being substantially lower than retail prices, leading to potential losses for consumers [3]. Data Insights - As of November 8, 2025, international gold prices have stabilized above 4000 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.33% [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 917.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a minor increase, while the price fluctuations indicate a growing divergence between bullish and bearish market sentiments [5]. Policy Impact - The new tax regulations effective from November 1 have increased the tax burden on gold used for investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail prices in various markets [7]. - The policy has caused temporary confusion in market pricing, prompting industry associations to issue guidelines for compliance [7]. Institutional Movements - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with China's central bank holding a record 2304 tons of gold as of October, indicating a strategic shift towards gold accumulation [10]. - Emerging market central banks are becoming the primary drivers of gold demand, reflecting a broader trend towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [10]. International Factors - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing short-term gold price fluctuations, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut [12][13]. - Geopolitical risks have shown a cooling effect on gold prices, as recent developments have reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [13]. Investment Strategies - Current technical analysis suggests that gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key resistance and support levels identified [15]. - The growing popularity of gold ETFs among younger investors highlights a shift towards more flexible investment options that do not require physical storage [15]. - Significant price differences between various purchasing channels indicate that consumers need to be aware of the cost implications when investing in gold [15]. Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a tension between long-term support from central bank purchases and short-term pressures from changing monetary policies and geopolitical stability [17]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could test higher levels in the future, but caution that the market has not yet reached critical thresholds that typically signal a market downturn [17].

Core Insights - The third quarter of 2025 witnessed a "volume-price divergence" in the Chinese gold market, with retail gold demand tonnage hitting a 16-year low while the monetary value surged to a historical high, indicating a shift in consumer and investor attitudes towards gold [1][9]. Retail Gold Demand - Retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 38%, marking the weakest performance since 2009 [1][11]. - Despite the decline in tonnage, the total monetary value of gold demand soared to 1,204 billion RMB (approximately 169 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 29%, setting a record for Q3 [1][11]. - Gold jewelry demand was 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year but up 21% quarter-on-quarter, representing the weakest Q3 since 2007 [2][11]. - The total value of gold jewelry consumption was 665 billion RMB (approximately 93 billion USD), reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase and a 25% quarter-on-quarter increase, making it the second-highest Q3 value on record [2][11]. Investment Demand - Gold bar and coin sales reached 74 tons, a 19% year-on-year increase, although there was a 36% quarter-on-quarter decline [4][11]. - The total sales for the first three quarters amounted to 313 tons, a 24% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level since 2013 [4][26]. - The demand for gold bars and coins showed a "weak-strong" pattern throughout Q3, with a resurgence in September as gold prices rose and stock market momentum weakened [4][26]. Gold ETF Performance - In Q3, gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately 5.4 billion USD), ending a three-quarter inflow streak, with total holdings decreasing by 5.8 tons to 194 tons [6][30]. - Despite the outflow, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs increased by 11% to 1,688 billion RMB (approximately 237 billion USD), reaching a new monthly high [6][30]. - The cumulative inflow for gold ETFs in the first three quarters was 593 billion RMB (approximately 82 billion USD), the highest for the same period historically [6][30]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continued to increase its gold reserves, adding 5 tons in Q3, bringing the total to 2,304 tons, which constitutes 7.7% of its foreign exchange reserves [7][13]. - The ongoing gold purchases by the central bank have bolstered investor confidence in the gold market [7][13]. Outlook for Q4 - The demand for gold jewelry may see seasonal improvement, but high gold prices and the later-than-usual Chinese New Year could limit growth [8][16]. - Investment demand is expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and ongoing central bank purchases, with potential interest rate cuts further attracting investors [8][16].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new tax regulations on gold has not significantly impacted the market, with stable prices and sufficient supply of investment gold observed in major banks in Shanghai [1][5][7]. Pricing Stability - The new regulations do not affect the sales prices of investment gold bars for end customers, as banks continue to price them according to market rates [5][6]. - The regulations classify gold into investment and non-investment categories, with personal purchases of investment gold bars having minimal impact [5][6]. - Banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) maintain their pricing mechanisms unaffected by the new rules [5][6]. Supply Adequacy - Both CCB and ICBC report that the supply of investment gold bars is stable and sufficient to meet customer demand [7][8]. - Inventory checks confirm that various specifications of gold bars are available, and any temporary shortages can be addressed through inter-branch transfers [7][8]. Customer Engagement - There has been a slight increase in customer inquiries and purchases of gold products since the new regulations were implemented, but the overall market remains stable [8]. - The demand for gold investments has been rising since last year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of higher gold prices [8][10]. Business Operations - Both CCB and ICBC briefly suspended certain gold accumulation services to adjust their systems to the new regulations but resumed operations shortly after [9][10]. - The gold accumulation products allow customers to invest in gold flexibly, with easy processes for withdrawing physical gold [9][10].

Group 1 - The World Gold Council (WGC) reports a significant increase in global gold investment demand, particularly in the fall of 2025, driven by central bank purchases and strong inflows into gold ETFs [1][2] - In September, global central banks net purchased 39 tons of gold, a 79% increase month-over-month, marking the highest monthly net purchase since 2025 [1] - For the first nine months of the year, central banks globally net bought 200 tons of gold, with the National Bank of Poland being the largest buyer at 67 tons [1] Group 2 - In October, global gold ETFs saw total inflows of $8.2 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of net inflows [2] - North America was the largest region for gold ETF inflows, contributing $6.5 billion, followed by Asia with $6.1 billion, while Europe experienced a net outflow of $4.5 billion [2] - Chinese investors showed significant interest, with net inflows into gold ETFs reaching $4.5 billion in October [2]