Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is suppressed by the good weather for US soybean planting recently and the high - yield of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the high - yield expectations of South American and domestic soybeans [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in July, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to a volatile pattern due to the critical period of US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still exists, and the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous high - yield expectation of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean futures, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 125, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 1043100 tons, a 4.48% increase from last week and a 22.5% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 191, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 6455900 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week and a 5.08% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4080至4180区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆窄幅 震荡，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差178，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存645.59万吨，上周642.24万吨，环比增加0.52%， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕大幅 回落，农业部推动饲料配方中减少蛋白含量不利需求和获利盘回吐，七月进口大豆到港 维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-195，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate between 3000 and 3060. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, and the A2509 contract of soybean is expected to move between 4160 and 4260 [8][10]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybean meal, and on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybeans [13][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4160 - 4260. The soybean meal market is neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory situation, a positive trend on the disk, a positive situation in the main position, and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, with a neutral overall situation [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have rebounded from low levels. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [30]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: presents the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) [32][33][37][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: shows the harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [40]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded week - on - week but declined year - on - year [41]. - The arrival of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills have continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the futures profit of imported soybeans have both fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows have increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remains weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has increased slightly [56]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 2980 - 3040. The US soybean market is influenced by good US soybean crushing data, but the high import of soybeans in June and weak spot prices in China suppress the market. The US soybean growing - season weather has uncertainties, and South American soybean harvest is abundant, which may limit the upward movement of the soybean meal price. [8] - **For Soybeans (A2509)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4140 - 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production may suppress the price. [10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - No content related to daily hints is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to be strong above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories rebounded from low levels. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets were affected by the decline of US soybeans and showed a downward trend. - The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war still existed. The soybean meal market is expected to remain in oscillation, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war. [12] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continued. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [13] 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2810, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. [8] - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. [10] 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price**: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 7th to July 16th are provided, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [15] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from July 8th to July 16th are provided. [17] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from July 4th to July 16th are provided, along with the changes compared to the previous day. [19] - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. [30][31] - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season are provided. [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. [40] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [41] - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, with an overall increase. The monthly arrival volume from 2020 to 2025 is provided. [43] - **Oil - Mill Inventory and Production**: The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year. [44][46][48] - **Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the profit of imported soybean futures fluctuated slightly. [50] - **Pig Farming**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level. [52][54][56][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, including the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans and soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the growth of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10][11][13]. - The soybean meal market is also in a volatile pattern. The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the low inventory of oil mills and the uncertainty of US soybean weather support the price. The market is mainly focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the price. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall of US soybeans [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. The soybean meal market is in a weak - volatile pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainty in US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The US soybean harvest area, yield, and output have changed slightly. The期末库存 of old - crop soybeans has decreased, and the export and crushing volumes have remained relatively stable. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also shown certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The planting, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing different progress [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 are also presented, showing different rates compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and good weather, showing a weak - volatile trend. The weather in US soybean - growing regions and the progress of Sino - US tariff wars are the main factors affecting the market [33]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has increased due to the global tariff war initiated by the US. The US soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [33]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans has reached a high in June, with the peak postponed and the overall volume increasing [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, and the demand for forward stocking has increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased year - on - year [37][39][41]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement of domestic soybean meal has slightly decreased, and the pick - up volume has declined from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [46][48][52]. 3.7 Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, affected by the relatively stable trends of US soybeans and domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a stage of shock adjustment, and the soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for new guidance [65]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal market has rebounded this week, affected by US soybeans and increased domestic supply. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a technical rebound stage, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the supply - demand pattern of US soybeans and soybean meal [67]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff wars, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [69]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement [70]. - The less important factors are macro - economic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine conflict [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The price of US soybeans is affected by the weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the weak spot price limit the upward space of the soybean meal price. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound state. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans, but is suppressed by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4020 and 4120 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bearish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by the decline of US soybeans and are in a short - term downward trend. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the supply is tight, and the soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas. Bearish factors include the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 147, indicating a discount to the futures. The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 121, indicating a premium to the futures [8][10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic pig farming profit has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. The supply of soybean meal is tight, and the market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [10].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, lacking new guidance in the short - term. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean market is narrowly fluctuating, affected by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. The domestic soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. - The domestic soybean meal market is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by the US soybean market and technical oscillations. The increase in imported soybean arrivals in June and the weak spot price suppress the upward space of the futures price. In the short - term, it returns to the range - bound pattern [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term China - US tariff negotiations are favorable for US soybeans, but the relatively good planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean futures price. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean and soybean meal markets have declined in the short - term due to the decline in the US soybean market [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures price, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppress the soybean price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 24 to July 3, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 25 to July 3, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was at a discount to the futures price [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From June 23 to July 3, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased significantly on June 27 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in the soybean meal market increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. - The main short positions in the soybean market decreased, and the funds flowed out [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, affected by the rebound of oils and fats and technical consolidation. In the short - term, they are oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal rose and then fell, influenced by US soybeans and technical consolidation. The increase in imported soybeans arriving in June and the weak spot price suppressed the rebound height of the disk. In the short - term, it returned to the range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding. Domestic soybeans oscillated and declined, affected by the trend of US soybeans. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supported the bottom of the disk, but the peak arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressed the rebound height of the disk. The A2509 contract oscillated between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: The fundamentals are neutral. The basis is at a discount, which is bearish. The inventory increased by 35.9% week - on - week and decreased by 34.32% year - on - year, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main force increased and the funds flowed out, which is bullish [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamentals are neutral. The basis is at a premium, which is bullish. The inventory increased by 4.37% week - on - week and 17.68% year - on - year, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main force decreased and the funds flowed out, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term China - US tariff negotiations are bullish for US soybeans, but the relatively good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory recovered from a low level, and the oil mill bean meal inventory also recovered from a low level in June. The beans oscillated and declined in the short - term due to the decline of US soybeans. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectations. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, bean meal has entered a weak oscillating pattern in the short - term. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal supports short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Bean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather. Bearish factors include the high arrival of imported soybeans in June and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean disk and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors include the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, and the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US and Brazil in the 2024 and 2024/25 seasons are presented [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Reports**: The monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months are provided, including data on harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing of soybeans [41]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Other Data - **Transaction Data**: The transaction data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from June 20 to July 1, including transaction average price and trading volume, are provided [15]. - **Price Data**: The futures and spot price data of soybeans and bean meal from June 23 to July 1 are provided [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The warehouse receipt data of soybeans and bean meal from June 18 to July 1 are provided [19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views For Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The US soybean production area weather has uncertainties, supporting the bottom of the soybean meal market, but factors like South American soybean harvest and more imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upside. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2920 and 2980 [8]. For Soybeans - The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound situation. Cost support and domestic demand support the bottom, while South American soybean harvest and domestic production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The report provides detailed views and strategies for soybean meal and soybeans, including fundamental analysis, basis, inventory, and expected price ranges [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have short - term positive effects on US soybeans, but good weather in the US soybean planting area has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. The domestic imported soybean arrival volume reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. Bearish factors are high imported soybean arrival volume in June and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors are cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report presents data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans, including harvest area, yield, inventory, and consumption over the years [31][32]. - It also shows the planting and growth progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, including planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, etc. [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data analysis is provided in the summary part, but it mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out [8].