聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：需求淡季，估值偏低，短期不追空 PX 供应继续收缩，PX单边反弹。上周的周报中，由于对中东地缘冲突结束的迅速程度才出现误判，单边价格PX跟随原油价格大幅回落，同时月差 同步走弱。多PX空SC。就供需层面而言，PX7月份继续维持紧平衡的去库格局，其中下周浙石化、福海创、天津石化均有检修可能，海外韩国 装置这存在提负荷计划，总体亚洲开工率降进一步下降。需求方面，PTA装置下周供应稳中有升，东营威联计划检修、恒力大连重启，逸盛新 材料计划提负荷，整体负荷回升1-2%。PX整体格局偏紧。另外原油价格回落速度较为可观，但成品油消费旺季叠加低库存，近端下探空间有 限，因此单边价格PX预计偏强，月差仍以正套为主。 PTA 成本有支撑，但是月差有压力，单边震荡略偏强。多PTA空MEG止盈。 7月份聚酯短纤长丝工厂预计 ...

聚烯烃：短期偏高，趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 PP：趋势偏弱 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 首先、当前中东情况趋向暂停，此前多头核心驱动消失。在供应端，目前检修量不足以改变供需格局， 新增产能大大抵消了供应端的努力。需要看到中国化债压力、欧美衰退压力等宏观因素配合国内产能扩 张的趋势，趋势压力仍在； ◆ 第二、站在中期角度看，供应端新增产能压力主要集中在上半年，虽然当下市场对贸易战好转的乐观因 素预期抢出口，但这并不改变总量供应过剩、下游低利润导致无力正反馈，因此高位仍然需要保持谨慎； ◆ 第三、从宏观角 ...

供应端：压力逐渐增加 2025年是近几年PE产能扩张压力最大的一年，也是此轮产能扩张周期的最后一年。上半年PE产能扩张 压力较小，除了一季度多套新装置集中投产之外，二季度几无新装置投产。不过，下半年PE仍将面临 吉林石化、裕龙石化、湛江巴斯夫等多套新装置投产压力，预计届时总产能将突破4000万吨/年。 成本端：利润存在压缩空间 今年PE利润情况较去年明显改善，其中煤制PE利润丰厚，一度达到2000元/吨，虽然近期有所回落，但 是依然在1500元/吨附近。油制PE一改近几年长期亏损的状态，基本扭亏为盈。综合来看，目前PE处于 近五年利润最好的状态，但考虑到PE曾经长期处于亏损状态，并且今年产能扩张压力较大，后期随着 供应压力陆续兑现，利润也存在压缩空间。 进出口：结构或逐渐改变 目前PE进出口格局变化不大，依然是净进口状态。其中，每月进口量在120万吨左右，每月出口量在5 万～10万吨。随着PE新装置陆续投产，国内供应将逐渐转向过剩，届时PE进出口格局或逐渐改变。作 为对比，PP曾经每月净进口30万吨左右，但是随着产能扩张逐渐兑现，进口大幅减少，出口明显增 加。目前PP进口和出口基本抵消，后期PE也有望像PP一 ...

? 中证鹏元给予公司稳定的信用评级展望。我们认为公司生产基地区位较好，近年业务规模持续扩大，尼龙 6 切片市 场占有率仍处于行业前列，保持一定竞争力，随着在建产能陆续投产，可为未来业务规模扩大形成基础，经营风险 和财务风险相对稳定。 本次评级适用评级方法和模型 评级方法/模型名称 版本号 化工企业信用评级方法和模型 cspy_ffmx_2023V1.0 外部特殊支持评价方法和模型 cspy_ffmx_2022V1.0 注：上述评级方法和模型已披露于中证鹏元官方网站 本次评级模型打分表及结果 评分要素 指标 评分等级 评分要素 指标 评分等级 宏观环境 4/5 初步财务状况 6/9 行业&经营风险状况 5/7 杠杆状况 8/9 业务状况 财务状况 行业风险状况 4/5 盈利状况 弱 经营状况 5/7 流动性状况 5/7 业务状况评估结果 5/7 财务状况评估结果 6/9 ESG 因素 0 调整因素 重大特殊事项 0 补充调整 0 个体信用状况 aa- 外部特殊支持 0 主体信用等级 AA- 注：各指标得分越高，表示表现越好。 本次跟踪债券概况 债券简称 发行规模（亿元） 债券余额（亿元） 上次评级日期 债券到期 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 4.6% to $346.6 million, primarily driven by $22 million of inorganic sales from the acquisition of UW Solutions [12] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 9.9%, primarily due to a less favorable mix and higher aluminum costs [13] - Adjusted diluted EPS declined to $0.56, driven by lower adjusted EBITDA, higher interest expense, and a higher adjusted effective tax rate [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metals segment net sales declined by 3.4%, with adjusted EBITDA margin decreasing to 7.3% due to a less favorable mix and higher aluminum costs [13] - Services segment achieved a 7.6% increase in net sales, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of growth, although adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 5.7% due to higher tariff expenses [14] - Glass segment net sales declined, with adjusted EBITDA margin moderating from elevated levels due to reduced volume from lower end market demand [14] - Performance Surfaces segment saw increased net sales driven by inorganic contributions from UW Solutions, with adjusted EBITDA margin declining to 18.8% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revenue pipeline for Glass is improving, positioning the segment for growth beginning in Q3 and into Q4 [8] - Metals showed solid sequential improvement from Q4, with expectations for continued improvement in Q2 [8][41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational improvements and tariff mitigation efforts, with aggressive actions under Project Fortify expected to drive annualized savings of $13 million to $15 million [7][10] - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities to diversify its business mix and enhance growth prospects [11][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management raised the fiscal year outlook for net sales and adjusted diluted EPS, expecting a strong second half driven by Performance Surfaces and improved glass results [11][19] - Management acknowledged ongoing market challenges but emphasized a focus on controllable factors to improve outlook [10] Other Important Information - The company expects net sales for the fiscal year to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.44 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS between $3.8 and $4.2 [16] - The unfavorable EPS impact from tariffs is estimated to be $0.35 to $0.45, primarily affecting the first half of the fiscal year [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the glass business and the revenue pipeline? - Management noted good visibility six months out and mentioned a pivot to smaller jobs to fill gaps in market softness, with increasing confidence in quote activity and award rates [24][25] Question: What are the segment margin targets for different business groups? - Management indicated that metals and services face headwinds from tariffs, and while they may struggle to reach the bottom of their target ranges, they expect improvement in the second half [30][31] Question: What is driving the sequential improvement in the metals segment? - Management highlighted operational improvements and regaining customer confidence as key factors driving month-to-month sequential improvement [41][43] Question: What is the status of Project Fortify Phase two? - Management confirmed minimal savings in Q1, with more significant savings expected to materialize in Q2 [48] Question: Can you quantify the EPS impact from tariffs in Q1? - Management stated that the impact was initially estimated at $0.45 to $0.55, but has been revised to $0.35 to $0.45 for the full year, with favorable trends noted in Q1 [49][50]

中矿资源（002738）公告，公司下属全资公司中矿锂业拟对年产2.5万吨锂盐生产线进行综合技术升级 改造，投资建设年产3万吨高纯锂盐技改项目。项目总投资额为1.21亿元，资金来源为中矿锂业自有资 金或自筹资金，停产检修及技改时间约为6个月。项目生产工艺技术水平、能耗及原料消耗等各项指标 均达到国内同类装置先进水平，污染物排放达到国家相关标准。项目建成投产后，公司将合计拥有年产 7.1万吨电池级锂盐产能，公司锂盐业务的综合竞争力进一步增强。 ...

中国最大的钛材生产商正在加速扩张产能版图，而一家亏损企业成为其战略棋盘上的最新落子。 6月24日，行业龙头宝钛股份公告称，以2.87亿元增资控股本地企业万豪钛金，取得后者51%股权。 成立于2020年的万豪钛金，从表面看并非优质资产，财务数据显示，2024年该公司营业收入9329万元， 净利润亏损1133万元。而宝钛股份看中的是其背后价值11亿元的工业园和2.5万吨年产能。 宝钛股份2024年钛产品产量已达3.36万吨，但这一数字距离公司"十五五"末设定的9万吨年产能目标仍 有巨大差距。控股万豪钛金或可视作公司补足产能短板的关键落子，亦是钛材高景气度周期下，公司产 能扩张的战略野心。 本次交易设计颇为精妙。宝钛股份以增资扩股方式取得51%股权，而非直接收购现有股权。交易对价确 定为2.87亿元，其中仅5204万元计入注册资本，其余2.35亿元计入资本公积。 来源：宝钛股份公告 2.87亿增资亏损企业 宝钛股份于2025年6月24日发布公告，拟以增资扩股方式取得陕西万豪钛金特材科技有限公司（简称"万 豪钛金"）51%股权，增资价款2.87亿元。 这种设计既保障了原股东的权益，又为标的公司注入了运营资金。 万豪钛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest approximately 424 million yuan in a project to expand the production capacity of sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets by 5,000 tons annually, which aligns with national industrial policies and trends [1] Group 1 - The subsidiary Zhejiang Dongyang Dongci Rare Earth Co., Ltd. will undertake the investment for the new production project [1] - The total investment for the project is estimated at around 424 million yuan [1] - The project is expected to take 18 months to complete and will be funded through self-owned or raised funds [1] Group 2 - Upon completion, the project will add an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons of sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets [1] - The expansion is anticipated to enhance the company's scale in the neodymium-iron-boron magnetic material business [1] - The project is in line with relevant national industrial policies and industry development trends [1]

【CNMO科技消息】2025年6月26日，小米汽车宣布旗下新款纯电动SUV——小米YU7，在上市短短3分 钟内便收获了超过20万份大定订单。这一成绩无疑证明了市场对小米YU7的高度认可与期待。然而，对 于小米汽车而言，这也意味着产能方面的巨大挑战。 根据最新的卫星影像显示，小米汽车一期工厂内部已停放了数百辆不同颜色的小米汽车。与此同时，二 期工厂建设已进入最后冲刺阶段。尽管外部道路仍在施工，但生产车间及办公楼等主要建筑已经基本完 工，整体布局与一期工厂保持一致。此外，从卫星图中还可以看到二期工厂东侧已经开始动工建设的三 期工厂，预示着小米汽车正在积极扩大生产规模。 回顾过去的发展历程，小米汽车北京亦庄工厂于2022年11月破土动工，仅用时16个月便完成了建设工 作，并在2024年3月实现了投产。一期工厂占地面积达72万平方米，包括冲压、焊装、涂装和总装四大 车间，年产能为15万辆。而二期项目的总建筑面积约为40万平方米，其中地上面积接近39.15万平方 米，地下空间则有8503.33平方米。 二期工厂的建成将极大缓解小米汽车面临的产能压力，有助于更快地响应市场需求。不过，考虑到新工 厂从建设完成到全面投产还需 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 日辰股份 Company Overview - **Company**: 日辰股份 - **Industry**: Food Processing and Seasoning Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q1 Revenue Growth**: Approximately 10.5% increase in revenue year-on-year, with net profit rising by 36% [2][4] - **Q2 Performance**: Decline in chain restaurant clients; however, the newly acquired 嘉兴艾贝邦 is expected to contribute approximately 50 million yuan in revenue for the year, positively impacting overall performance [2][7] - **Half-Year Outlook**: Anticipated to maintain double-digit growth in the first half, with potential improvement in the second half due to new product launches [2][5] Market Dynamics - **Chain Restaurant Sector**: The decline in the second quarter is attributed to a market downturn rather than loss of market share; demand from small and medium clients is weak, while large clients remain stable [6][8] - **Customer Base**: Focus on large clients such as 百胜, 沙普, and 三木 for revenue growth in the second half, particularly through new product launches in the autumn [9] Product and Capacity Insights - **Product Performance**: Shrimp cracker products have shown significant growth, although their low profit margin limits net profit contribution [10] - **Membership Store System**: The brand customization segment has performed exceptionally well, with revenue expected to exceed 80 million yuan by year-end [11] - **Production Capacity**: 青岛工厂 is nearing full capacity, while 嘉兴工厂 is expected to commence production between October and December, enhancing efficiency and order management [14] Strategic Initiatives - **Stock Incentive Plan**: A new stock incentive plan targets mid-to-senior management, with performance metrics set for a compound annual growth rate of 20% [3] - **C-end Strategy**: The company is adopting a contraction strategy in the C-end market, avoiding large-scale investments in distributors or offline supermarkets due to poor returns [24] - **Expansion Plans**: Plans to expand the 爱必诺 production line to reduce dependency on 百胜, which currently accounts for over 80% of its revenue [22] Challenges and Risks - **Market Environment**: The overall market remains cautious, with pressure from customer price negotiations impacting profit margins, which are expected to stabilize between 38% and 39% [18] - **Future Growth**: If the restaurant sector does not recover in the next three years, the company aims to achieve growth through new client acquisition and enhancing existing client contributions [29] Additional Insights - **Traditional Supermarket Channels**: Limited engagement in traditional supermarkets, with lower profit margins compared to overall business [12] - **Product Development**: Ongoing product development efforts with a focus on market feedback to align with consumer preferences [26][27] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, market dynamics, strategic initiatives, and potential challenges.