Monetary Statistics - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.28 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase [1] Loan and Deposit Data - By the end of July, the total loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 272.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [1] - The total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies were 327.83 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9% [2] - In the first seven months, the increase in RMB loans was 12.87 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 18.44 trillion yuan [1][2] Sector-Specific Loan Breakdown - Household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 383 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 1.06 trillion yuan [1] - Corporate loans rose by 11.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans increasing by 3.75 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 6.91 trillion yuan [1] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with a total balance of 555.8 billion USD [1] Cross-Border Transactions - In July, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.57 trillion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 1.15 trillion yuan [3] - Direct investment cross-border RMB settlement reached 0.64 trillion yuan, with outbound direct investment at 0.22 trillion yuan and foreign direct investment at 0.42 trillion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - July's social financing data indicates that while M1 and M2 growth exceeded market expectations, new loans and social financing fell short, reflecting changes in financing structure, seasonal factors, and shifts in household investment behavior [1][2][3] Monetary Supply - In July, M2 expanded by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 grew by 5.6%, both surpassing Bloomberg's consensus expectations of 8.3% and 5.2% respectively [1][7] - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 increased from 4.6% in June to 5.6% in July, partly due to low interest rates and the reactivation of deposits by residents and enterprises [7] - M2's year-on-year growth rate rose from 8.3% in May to 8.8% in July, significantly higher than the expected 8.3% [8] Social Financing - July's new social financing amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.63 trillion yuan, but showed a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan [6][10] - Government bond net issuance in July was 1.24 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 4.1 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing [2][6] - The net issuance of government bonds in the first seven months of the year reached 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy [3][4] Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans in July decreased by 500 billion yuan, contrasting with the expected increase of 300 billion yuan, reflecting weak demand from the private sector, particularly in the real estate market [2][4][5] - The total amount of short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents fell by 287.1 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weakened demand in the real estate sector [2][4] - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreased by 5.5 billion and 2.6 billion yuan respectively, indicating a decline in financing demand amid rising uncertainties [5][6] Fiscal Policy Impact - The acceleration of social financing growth in July was supported by the front-loaded issuance of government bonds, which is expected to continue influencing the broad credit cycle positively [3][4] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth in the first half of the year was 8.9%, significantly higher than the -2.8% recorded in the same period last year [4] - The sustainability of fiscal stimulus in the latter half of the year may face uncertainties, particularly in light of potential reductions in government bond issuance compared to the previous year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The growth rate of RMB loans in July remains significantly higher than GDP growth, indicating strong financial support for the real economy and a gradual recovery in effective demand [1] Group 1: Loan Growth Analysis - The impact of local government bond swaps on loan data is substantial, and after adjusting for this effect, the loan growth rate in July is still notably high [1] - July is traditionally a low month for credit, yet the first seven months of RMB loans have shown steady growth [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The steady growth in loans reflects robust support from the financial sector for the real economy [1] - The data suggests a positive trend in the recovery of the real economy and a gradual restoration of effective demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's data indicates that as of the end of July, social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans grew by 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% year-on-year, respectively, continuing to outpace economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Growth Analysis - In July, credit growth slowed due to multiple factors including seasonal effects, local government debt swaps, and financial institutions reducing excessive competition, leading to a decrease in the loan growth rate to 6.9%, down from 8.7% the previous year [2][3]. - July is traditionally a low month for credit, as June often sees higher lending due to banks' performance assessments and businesses' cash flow needs [2][3]. - The impact of local government debt swaps on loan data remains significant, with estimates suggesting that these swaps have influenced loan growth by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financing Environment - The high growth rates of social financing scale and M2 reflect a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a suitable financial environment for the real economy [4][5]. - As of the end of July, the social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, indicating a robust increase in financing activities [4]. - Government bond issuance has been a major driver of social financing growth, with a more proactive fiscal policy supporting economic demand [4][5]. Group 3: Loan Structure and Interest Rates - The structure of loans is optimizing to meet the demands of economic transformation, with inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing showing growth rates of 11.8% and 8.5%, respectively [7]. - Loan interest rates remain low, with new corporate loans averaging around 3.2% and personal housing loans at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a favorable credit supply environment [7]. - The reduction in financing costs has positively impacted effective demand, with some businesses reporting interest rates halved compared to previous levels [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and stability in the second half of the year, supporting employment, businesses, and market expectations, which will facilitate smoother domestic economic circulation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first seven months of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In July, the new social financing maintained a year-on-year increase, supported by government bond financing, despite fluctuations in new credit data due to credit overdraft and hidden debt replacement [1][2] - The increase in loans is subject to seasonal characteristics, with July typically being a "small credit month," and historical data shows that manufacturing and construction PMI averages are lower in July compared to June [2] - The growth of social financing in July was primarily driven by government special bonds and corporate bond financing, with new government bonds amounting to 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - The difference in growth rates between narrow money supply (M1) and broad money supply (M2) narrowed to 3.2%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [3] - It is expected that after short-term disturbances subside, new credit in August will return to positive values, and social financing will remain at a high level, with M2 continuing to grow rapidly and M1's growth rate accelerating [3] - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a supportive stance in the second half of the year, focusing on reducing financing costs and increasing credit availability to stimulate domestic demand [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first seven months of this year, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 660 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The total social financing scale increased to 23.99 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, marking the first negative growth since August 2005 [1] - New social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing a trend of year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months [1] Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - Analysts attribute the weak credit performance in July to factors such as overdraft effects, local government hidden debt replacement, and adjustments in the real estate market [1] - The loan balance at the end of July showed a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate, indicating stable support from credit to the real economy [1] - The average new loan amount for June and July combined was approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, which is consistent with the previous year's average of 1.2 trillion yuan, suggesting stable credit performance when smoothing out short-term effects [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The increase in social financing in July was primarily supported by government bond financing, indicating a significant scale of hidden debt replacement [2] - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring broader financial indicators such as social financing scale and M2, which provide a more comprehensive view of financial support for the real economy [2] - As of the end of July, M1 grew by 5.6% year-on-year, and M2 grew by 8.8%, both showing an acceleration in growth rates compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Measures - Analysts expect that after the short-term disturbances from overdraft effects diminish, new credit in August will return to positive values, with social financing remaining at a high level [2][3] - The introduction of new personal consumption loan subsidies is anticipated to lower borrowing costs for residents, potentially stimulating credit demand [3] - The central bank's recent actions to lower interest rates on new corporate loans to approximately 3.2% and personal housing loans to about 3.1% reflect a commitment to maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [3][4]

Core Points - In July, China's new social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a decrease of 500 billion yuan in new RMB loans and an increase of 500 billion yuan in new RMB deposits, while household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan [1][4] - The cumulative social financing scale from January to July reached 23.99 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3][8] - The total social financing stock as of the end of July was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [11] Financing Structure - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 264.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while foreign currency loans decreased by 23.2% [11][12] - The balance of entrusted loans was 11.16 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, while trust loans increased by 5.9% [11][12] - Government bonds accounted for 20.9% of the total financing stock, which is an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [12] Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [13] - The cash in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase [13] Loan and Deposit Trends - From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 6.807 trillion yuan [14][15] - The total RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with household deposits contributing 9.66 trillion yuan [15] Market Activity - In July, the average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending was 1.45%, which is lower than the previous month and the same period last year [16] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount for current accounts in July was 1.57 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from goods trade and services [17]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.87 trillion yuan in RMB loans for the first seven months of the year [1] - Household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 383 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 1.06 trillion yuan [1] - Corporate loans rose by 11.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans increasing by 3.75 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 6.91 trillion yuan, along with an increase of 824.7 billion yuan in bill financing [1] Group 2 - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.28 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] Group 3 - The net cash injection for the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan [1] - Preliminary statistics indicated that by the end of July 2025, the total social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [1] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of July, the social financing scale and M2 growth rate remained high, indicating a suitable monetary environment for the real economy and reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy stance [1][2] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Economic Support - In the first half of the year, the People's Bank implemented a series of monetary policies that effectively supported the recovery of the real economy, with expectations that the effects of these policies will continue to manifest [1][2] Loan and Financing Data - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with the total RMB loan balance reaching 268.51 trillion yuan by the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2][3] - The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [2][7] - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] Loan Growth Influences - Loan growth is influenced by the macroeconomic background of structural transformation and lighter funding needs, as well as the development of direct financing and diversified financing channels [3][6] - Factors such as local government debt replacement and the reform of small and medium-sized banks have significantly impacted loan growth, with estimates suggesting these factors have contributed over 1 percentage point to the current loan growth rate [3][6] Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Loan interest rates have been at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates around 3.1%, both down approximately 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4][5] - The reduction in financing costs has positively impacted corporate profitability and demand expansion, with many companies now able to invest in new projects due to lower interest rates [5] Financing Structure and Trends - The growth rate of bond financing has outpaced that of credit financing, indicating an ongoing optimization of the financing structure in China [7][8] - By the end of July, M2 stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [7][8] Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment has shown steady improvement, with macroeconomic indicators performing better than expected, supporting the reasonable growth of monetary totals [8] - The continuity and stability of macro policies are expected to support employment, businesses, and market confidence, ensuring a smoother domestic economic cycle [8]

Core Insights - The total social financing increment for the first seven months of 2025 reached 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The balance of social financing stock at the end of July 2025 was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [2] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4][5] Financing Structure - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 61.4% of the total social financing stock, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 1.43 trillion yuan, a decrease of 184.9 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Government bond net financing reached 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] Loan and Deposit Trends - RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with household loans rising by 680.7 billion yuan [6] - The balance of foreign currency loans was 5,558 billion USD, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% [6] - RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan [7] Market Activity - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.45% in July, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [8] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 222.44 trillion yuan in July, with a daily average transaction of 9.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [8] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount for current account transactions was 1.57 trillion yuan in July [8]