Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in performance for the first half of 2025, with a 35% year-on-year growth in net profit, driven by rising product prices and sales volumes, alongside a decrease in raw material costs [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.36 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [3]. - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached approximately 2.906 million tons, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, while the sales volume of alumina products was 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic aluminum price as of August 25, 2025, was 20,820 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.7% increase since the beginning of the year. The overall aluminum consumption in China is expected to reach 54.35 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% [5]. - Key growth drivers for aluminum consumption include new energy vehicles, transmission lines, and air conditioning, while net exports and construction are expected to be drag factors [5]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a share buyback plan with a total amount not less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, reflecting confidence in its future prospects [6]. - The company declared a dividend of 1.02 Hong Kong cents per share on June 13, 2025, with a cumulative dividend of 1.61 Hong Kong cents per share for the 2024 fiscal year, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The aluminum smelting industry is moving towards inclusion in the national carbon market, which may lead to increased costs for companies using thermal power for aluminum production, thereby encouraging energy-saving measures and a potential price premium for hydropower aluminum [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 81.04 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both sales volume and prices of aluminum products, alongside a decline in raw material costs [1]. - The domestic aluminum price showed resilience, increasing by 4.7% since the beginning of the year, with expectations for continued growth in aluminum consumption driven by sectors like new energy vehicles and construction [2]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan of at least 3 billion HKD, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 81.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan, marking increases of 10.1% and 35% year-on-year respectively [1]. - The sales volume for aluminum alloy products was approximately 2.906 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year, while alumina sales volume reached 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% [1]. Market Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is expected to reach 54.35 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% [2]. - Key growth areas include new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning, which are anticipated to support aluminum consumption [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10.53%, 7.57%, and 7.91% [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5, reflecting the company's strong position in the aluminum industry [3][4].

Core Insights - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green transition in the economy and society [1] - The recent document from the Central Committee and State Council emphasizes China's commitment to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, which together form a comprehensive carbon market system [2] - As of July 2025, the national carbon emissions trading market has seen a cumulative transaction volume of 681 million tons and a transaction value of 46.784 billion yuan, indicating a growing market influence [2] - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has registered 9.48 million tons of certified voluntary reduction, with a transaction value of 208 million yuan as of July 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Functionality and Goals - The document outlines a roadmap for the medium- and long-term development of the national carbon market, with specific targets set for 2027 and 2030 [4] - The focus will be on expanding the coverage of industries and greenhouse gases, establishing a transparent quota management system, and transitioning from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [4][5] - The aim is to create a low-carbon development awareness across society, emphasizing that carbon emissions have costs while carbon reductions yield benefits [3] Group 3: Systematic Approach and Governance - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system that requires a balance between market and government roles, long-term and short-term goals, and domestic and international considerations [6][7] - The government is tasked with creating a regulatory framework and risk prevention system, while the market focuses on resource allocation efficiency [7] - Local pilot carbon markets will continue to play a role in testing policies and mechanisms that can be scaled to the national level [7] Group 4: International Cooperation and Standards - The carbon market should also serve as a platform for international cooperation in green and low-carbon development, adhering to international standards and facilitating cross-border collaboration [8]

Market Overview - The national carbon market opened at a price of 71.03 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 70.92 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.08% from the previous day [1][2]. Trading Volume and Revenue - Today's trading volume for the carbon emission allowances was 250,528 tons, resulting in a total transaction value of approximately 17,819,758.10 yuan [2]. - From January 1 to August 19, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 57,727,603 tons, with a total transaction value of 4,268,774,002.33 yuan [3]. Cumulative Data - As of August 19, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national market was 687,996,267 tons, with a total transaction value of 47,301,501,105.84 yuan [4].

Market Overview - The national carbon market opened at a price of 71.45 yuan per ton, with a highest price of 71.45 yuan per ton, a lowest price of 71.30 yuan per ton, and a closing price of 71.41 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% compared to the previous day [1][3]. Trading Volume and Revenue - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 259,928 tons, with a total transaction value of 18,986,830 yuan [4]. - The agreement trading volume was 159,928 tons, generating a transaction value of 11,586,830 yuan, while the bulk agreement trading volume was 100,000 tons, with a transaction value of 7,400,000 yuan [3][4]. Cumulative Data - From January 1 to August 13, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market reached 55,614,850 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 4,116,779,167.13 yuan [5]. - As of August 13, 2025, the total cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market was 685,883,514 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 47,149,506,270.64 yuan [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, upward momentum may be released and prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **CEA**: The main target is weakly volatile. There are 26.9 tons for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The daily average trading volume in the week exceeds 600,000 tons, and the CEA price has been falling. For different years' CEA, the closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 72.93 yuan/ton, and 73.20 yuan/ton respectively; the price changes are 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.27%, and 0.07% respectively; the total trading volumes are 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 2.00 tons, 6.00 tons, and 28.91 tons respectively [4][8]. - **CCER**: The listing agreement trading volume is 70,000 tons, the average trading price is 78.00 yuan/ton (-5.33%), the trading amount is 5.46 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4771 million tons [4][10]. Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances is the realistic support for carbon price reversal. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to compliance pressure [6].

今日挂牌协议交易成交量93,022吨，成交额6,803,797.10元；大宗协议交易成交量100,000吨，成交额 5,500,000.00元；今日无单向竞价。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量193,022吨，总成交额12,303,797.10元。 | 名 称 | 价 格 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 开 盘 | 72. 18 | 元/吨 | | 最 高 | 72. 28 | 元/吨 | | 最 低 | 72. 07 | 元/吨 | | 收 盘 | 72. 12 | 元/吨 | | 涨幅 | -0. 10% | | | 全国碳市场各年度碳排放配额成交情况(20250807) | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 各年度 碳烯放配额 | 开盘价 >> | 童商价 (元/吨) (元/吨) (元/吨)(元/吨》 | 最低价 收盘价 | | | (吨) | 日成交顺 (元) | 累计成交量 (吨) | 累计成交额 (元) | 交易方式 | | | ...

Market Overview - The national carbon market opened at 72.55 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 72.60 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 72.27 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 72.43 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.07% from the previous day [1][2]. Trading Volume and Revenue - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 522,725 tons, with a total transaction value of 39,091,812.60 yuan [3]. - The agreement trading volume was 110,104 tons, generating a transaction value of 8,086,005.52 yuan, while the bulk agreement trading volume was 412,621 tons, with a transaction value of 31,005,807.08 yuan [2]. Cumulative Data - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market reached 681,080,473 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 46,823,083,004.40 yuan [5]. - From January 1 to August 1, 2025, the trading volume was 50,811,809 tons, with a transaction value of 3,790,355,900.89 yuan [4].

新华财经北京7月30日电据微信公众号"全国碳交易"，今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为： 开盘价73.67元 ／吨，最高价73.67元／吨，最低价73.44元／吨，收盘价73.48元／吨，收盘价较前一日上涨0.22%。 | 名 称 | 价 格 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 开 盘 | 73. 67 | 元/吨 | | 最高 | 73. 67 | 元/吨 | | 最 低 | 73. 44 | 元/吨 | | 收 盘 | 73. 48 | 元/吨 | | 涨幅 | 0. 22% | - | 今日挂牌协议交易成交量233,300吨，成交额17,244,810.00元；大宗协议交易成交量100,000吨，成交额 7,292,000.00元；今日无单向竞价。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量333,300吨，总成交额24,536,810.00元。 截至2025年7月30日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量679,890,717吨，累计成交额46,735,972,784.00 元。 2025年1月1日至7月30日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量49,622,053吨，成交额3,703,245,680.49元。 ...

Market Overview - The national carbon market's comprehensive price today opened at 74.48 yuan/ton, reached a high of 74.78 yuan/ton, and a low of 74.37 yuan/ton, closing at 74.78 yuan/ton, which represents an increase of 0.94% compared to the previous day [1] Trading Volume and Revenue - Today's listed agreement trading volume was 41,000 tons, with a total transaction value of 3,121,900.00 yuan; there were no large-scale agreement transactions today [1] - The total trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market from January 1 to July 7, 2025, was 40,690,419 tons, with a total transaction value of 3,048,727,469.11 yuan [1] - As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market reached 670,959,083 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 46,081,454,572.62 yuan [1]