Core Viewpoint - The recent document outlines a plan to establish a national carbon emissions trading market by 2030, focusing on a quota system that combines free and paid allocations to drive market-based emissions reductions [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Quota System - Quotas are described as "environmental food stamps" issued by the government to companies, allowing them to sell excess allowances if they manage to reduce emissions effectively [1] - The plan includes a timeline for adjusting quota distribution methods, prioritizing total quota control for stable-emission industries by 2027 [1] Transition from Intensity Control to Total Control - The current method of carbon quota distribution is based on intensity control, which limits emissions per unit of output but does not cap total emissions [1] - This approach has limitations, including unclear reduction expectations and insufficient constraints on emissions, prompting a shift to total emissions control [1] Market Mechanism and Paid Allocation - The carbon market, which will include sectors like steel and cement by 2024, is expected to cover over 60% of national CO2 emissions, facilitating the breakdown of national reduction targets to the enterprise level [2] - The transition from free to paid quota distribution is necessary to enhance market liquidity and reduce volatility, as evidenced by the EU's experience with a 60% paid allocation rate [2] Implementation and Fairness - The document emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in quota distribution, ensuring it is neither too lenient nor too strict, to meet national reduction goals while being fair to advanced companies [3] - Strict regulations will be enforced to ensure accurate carbon emissions data and compliance in quota transactions, enhancing the traceability of each quota [3] Future Outlook - The implementation of these measures is expected to accelerate the transition to a market-driven carbon market, positioning it as a key driver for green transformation in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Germany has achieved its 2028 coal power reduction target ahead of schedule, eliminating the need for a second consecutive year of mandated coal plant closures [1] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Federal Network Agency of Germany announced that the mid-term target for coal power reduction by 2028 is set at 8,700 megawatts, and as of September 1, the country has exceeded this target by approximately 10% [1] - The country plans to completely phase out coal power by 2038, although some large lignite plants related to mining operations have been granted extended closure periods to address unemployment concerns [1] Group 2: Energy Market Dynamics - Currently, nearly two-thirds of Germany's electricity comes from renewable sources, leading to frequent instances of surplus solar power that drive electricity prices below zero, significantly reducing the profitability of coal power generation [1] - Coal plant operators are required to purchase carbon emission allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System, with prices fluctuating between €60 and €84 per ton this year, currently around €74 per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell gave a dovish signal [2][4]. - Silver: It is expected to reach its previous high [2][5]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2][12]. - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a narrow range [2][15]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price will fluctuate [2][19]. - Tin: It will oscillate within a range [2][22]. - Aluminum: Fluctuations will converge; Alumina will decline slightly; Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel: It will operate in a narrow - range oscillation; Stainless steel will experience short - term low - level fluctuations [2][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Comex Gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20; London Gold Spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex Silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390; London Silver Spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Comex Gold 2510 trading volume increased by 59,697 to 179,273, and open interest decreased by 2,083 to 323,440; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume increased by 10,840 to 31,554, and open interest remained unchanged at 90,075 [5]. - **Inventory**: Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 to 38,573,764; Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) remained unchanged at 508,499,193 [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple events including geopolitical issues, corporate lawsuits, and policy changes in different countries and regions [7][9][11]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 1; Silver trend intensity: 1 [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Copper main contract rose 1.32% to 79,690, and the night - session price was 79640, down 0.06%; LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.77% to 9,809 [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper main contract trading volume increased by 53,037 to 87,895, and open interest increased by 20,929 to 169,761; LME Copper 3M electronic disk trading volume increased by 6,274 to 16,941, and open interest increased by 3,555 to 268,000 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 401 to 23,747; LME Copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155,975, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.77% to 8.03% [12]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had under - expected housing sales and weak business activity index [12]. - Micro: China's refined copper imports in July 2025 decreased 0.32% month - on - month but increased 12.05% year - on - year; Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [12][14]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [14]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.54% to 22395; LME Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume increased by 42715 to 131380, and open interest decreased by 2533 to 105259; LME Zinc trading volume increased by 948 to 8247, and open interest increased by 1465 to 193310 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2403 to 35194; LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1300 to 68075 [15]. 3.3.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The government plans to implement carbon emission quota control for certain industries [16]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: 0 [18]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Lead main contract rose 0.39% to 16845; LME Lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume increased by 18257 to 41202, and open interest decreased by 13190 to 27975; LME Lead trading volume increased by 1725 to 5119, and open interest increased by 3430 to 160840 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory increased by 2 to 58948; LME Lead inventory decreased by 6550 to 273050 [19]. 3.4.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had concerns about its economic health [20]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [20]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930; LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract trading volume decreased by 2,103 to 34,606, and open interest decreased by 671 to 18,073; LME Tin 3M electronic disk trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [23]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 205 to 7,053; LME Tin inventory increased by 45 to 1,785, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 0.38% to 6.57% [23]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple geopolitical and policy - related events [24][25]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 1 [26]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20770; LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2622. The LME注销仓单 ratio was 2.77% [27]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3184 [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [27]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - The outcome of the US - South Korea leaders' meeting [28]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [28]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,310; 1 imported nickel was priced at 120,350 [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,880 [29]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [34].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a one-day rebound, with major indices retreating and the Dow Jones leaving record highs. Pharmaceutical stocks, particularly Merck, fell over 2% following Trump's remarks on drug price reductions [1][28] - Technology giants showed mixed results: Microsoft and Apple declined, while Nvidia rose by 1% and Tesla by nearly 2% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a four-day rise, with Pinduoduo's stock increasing nearly 5% after its earnings report, ultimately closing up by nearly 0.9% [1] Company News - Orsted, a Danish wind energy giant, saw its stock drop over 16% after the US government halted a wind power project [2][31] - Puma's stock surged by 16% amid reports that its major shareholder, the Pino family, is considering selling shares [2][21] - Nvidia announced its new Jetson Thor AI, which boasts a 6.5 times increase in computing power compared to its predecessor, aimed at real-time AI processing [19] - Google detailed its next-generation Ironwood TPU architecture, achieving a 16-fold performance increase, with a single chip reaching 4614 TFLOPs [19] - Pinduoduo reported a 7% slowdown in revenue growth for Q2, with net profit decline narrowing to 4%, better than expected [11][26] Industry Insights - The AI sector is witnessing a shift towards application layers, with GPU demand surging by 20 times due to the transition to new computing paradigms [29] - The wind energy sector is expected to see growth in gearbox components due to increasing market share and demand [32] - The steel industry is showing strong performance, with some leading companies achieving high growth despite high baseline performance [32]

Group 1 - The core event of the "National Low Carbon Day" was held in Beijing, focusing on the linkage between the carbon market and green electricity trading, with key carbon emission units becoming the main consumers of green electricity [1] - Beijing's carbon market has been operational for 11 compliance cycles, with the average online transaction price of carbon emission allowances rising from approximately 50 yuan per ton at the start to 111 yuan per ton by 2024 [1] - Approximately 900 key carbon emission units are managed under Beijing's carbon market, covering industries such as electricity, cement manufacturing, petrochemicals, thermal supply, public transportation, and other industrial and service sectors, with a total carbon emission volume of about 45 million tons [1] Group 2 - Companies consuming green electricity can receive around 0.06 yuan compensation per kilowatt-hour, resulting in a net benefit of approximately 0.04 yuan after offsetting about 0.02 yuan of the incremental cost of green electricity [2] - The local carbon market primarily distributes carbon emission allowances for free, supplemented by paid allocations to promote healthy market operation and signal the cost of carbon emissions [2] - Since 2022, the introduction of paid competitive bidding for carbon emission allowances has increased market liquidity and activity, contributing to the healthy functioning of the carbon market [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The Guangdong carbon market has achieved a near balance between carbon emission allowances issued and actual emissions, although it remains slightly loose. The total carbon emissions from key industries such as steel, cement, paper, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and electricity are approximately 355-396 million tons, with average allowances issued around 425-451 million tons [1][2] - By 2025, significant changes are expected in the industries under the Guangdong carbon market, with steel and cement likely exiting the market to comply with national regulations, while the textile industry is anticipated to be included with a control scale of approximately 1.5-4 million tons [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Background and Mechanism of Guangdong Carbon Market - The Guangdong carbon market was established to address climate change, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions by 40%-45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. The market began operations in 2013, covering key industries [11][12] - The total carbon emission allowances represent 75%-90% of Guangdong's total emissions (excluding Shenzhen), with the power generation sector being the largest contributor [12][13] Section 2: Key Issues in the Guangdong Carbon Market - The report analyzes the carbon emissions and theoretical allowances for each regulated industry, noting that the overall emissions are directly related to production capacity and utilization rates [38] - The carbon market has seen a gradual expansion in the number of regulated industries, with the threshold for inclusion being lowered over time [17][18] - The distribution of allowances combines free and paid methods, with a significant portion of allowances being issued for free to encourage compliance and reduce costs for industries [19][22]