News Focus - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will pre-allocate carbon emission quotas for key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries by April 10, 2026, and for the power generation industry by June 30, 2026 [2] Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation has unconditionally approved several operator concentration cases in the energy sector, including acquisitions by Guizhou Water Investment Group and Xinjiang Tianchi Energy [3] - A series of important national standards related to ecological and environmental protection have been released, including standards for natural protected area signs and greenhouse gas emission accounting [3] - China has achieved kilogram-level uranium product extraction from seawater, marking a significant step towards engineering applications of seawater uranium extraction technology [4] - Zhejiang Province aims to enhance the influence of existing price indices and trading varieties, with a target of achieving an annual online spot trading volume of 250 billion yuan [4] - The installation of the steel safety shell top cap for the nuclear island of the Liaoning Xudabao Nuclear Power Unit 1 has been successfully completed, transitioning the project to the installation phase [4] Corporate News - China Logistics Group Equipment Logistics Co., Ltd. has been established to focus on energy equipment logistics and special oversized cargo logistics, aiming to ensure supply chain security [8] - The State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company has successfully conducted ultra-high voltage live working at an altitude of 5,211.5 meters, setting a world record for such operations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "range - bound". [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The coking coal market shows a supply - demand double - weak fundamental situation approaching the Spring Festival. Private coal mines are gradually shutting down for holidays, and downstream demand is weakly stable. Although the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal has declined, the inventory pressure remains high, putting pressure on the coking coal futures. It is expected that both coking coal and coke will maintain a weakly stable operation before the festival. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - The main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,147.0 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.75% compared to the daytime session opening. The main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 0.26% compared to the daytime session opening. In the night session, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,126.5 yuan/ton, down 1.79% compared to the daytime session closing, and the coke main contract closed at 1,685.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% compared to the daytime session closing. [1] Important Information - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced on February 9 that provincial ecological environment departments should pre - allocate the 2025 annual carbon emission allowances to key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries before April 10, 2026. - On February 9, the coking coal prices in Linfen Yaodu District, Linfen Anze, and Jinzhong markets remained stable. The high - sulfur strong fat coal in Linfen Yaodu District was priced at 1,150 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive tax at the factory; the low - sulfur main coking clean coal in Linfen Anze was 1,570 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive tax at the factory; and the medium - sulfur main coking clean coal in Jinzhong was 1,280 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive tax at the factory. [1] Market Logic - Approaching the Spring Festival, the overall supply - demand situation of coking coal is weak. Private coal mines are shutting down, and downstream demand is weakly stable. The high inventory of Mongolian coal at the port still exerts pressure on the coking coal futures. [1] Trading Strategy - The market is expected to be range - bound before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the Spring Festival holiday. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Slovak government aims to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant, which was once one of Europe's largest primary aluminum producers, to reduce dependence on non-European imports and address high electricity prices affecting competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Slovalco Plant Details - The Slovalco plant has a maximum capacity of approximately 200,000 tons per year and was closed in August 2022 due to high electricity prices that made production uncompetitive [1]. - The plant's carbon footprint is significantly lower than that of some current aluminum suppliers to Europe, being about one-fifth of theirs [1]. - Local management indicated that production could resume as early as summer if all necessary conditions are met [3]. Group 2: European Aluminum Market Context - Europe's primary aluminum capacity has shrunk to about 1.2 million tons annually after the closure of approximately 1.5 million tons of capacity, with 70%-80% of the annual demand of 6-7 million tons relying on imports, mainly from China and Africa [1]. - Recent supply challenges have arisen from production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique, which are significant aluminum import sources for the EU [4]. Group 3: Government Initiatives and Support - The Slovak government plans to sign a memorandum of understanding with Slovalco to ensure at least 10 years of continued aluminum production, which is the minimum timeframe needed for resuming operations [2]. - The government is advocating for EU-level solutions to address high electricity prices, including potential long-term exemptions from carbon emissions quota payments [2]. Group 4: Market Trends and Pricing - Aluminum prices increased by 11.8% from October to December, with the three-month aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange reaching $3,185 per ton as of January 12, reflecting a rise of $170 since the beginning of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in CEA prices in November is a result of both policy guidance and changes in market supply and demand [4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - CEA prices have been declining throughout the year, but November saw a rebound with a maximum price of 70.14 yuan/ton and a minimum of 51.54 yuan/ton, closing up 14.80% from the last trading day of the previous month [4]. - The new quota transfer regulations, which increased the basic transfer amount for key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum industries from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons, have contributed to the price rebound [6]. - The end of the surplus quota sell-off and the government's intention to stabilize prices have also played a role in the price recovery [6][7]. Group 2: Policy Signals and Market Stability - Recent announcements, including a new round of national contributions and policies to promote green and low-carbon transitions, have strengthened expectations for the carbon market [7]. - The upcoming compliance deadline at the end of the year has increased the willingness of some companies to purchase quotas [7]. - The fluctuation of carbon prices is considered a normal market phenomenon, influenced by supply-demand relationships, market expectations, and trading behaviors [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current carbon price reflects market expectations regarding quota supply and demand, impacting the decisions and interests of both buyers and sellers [9]. - The low carbon price may benefit companies with quota deficits but could hinder surplus companies from maximizing their reduction potential [9]. - The voluntary carbon market (CCER) prices are currently lower than CEA prices, leading some companies to prefer purchasing CCERs to offset their quotas [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to adopt a cautiously optimistic approach towards carbon prices, utilizing basic transfer quotas strategically before the end of the year [12]. - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 may indirectly influence China's carbon market rules and expansion speed, but its direct impact on prices is expected to be limited in the short term [12]. - The transition to a mixed allocation of free and paid carbon quotas is anticipated to enhance carbon price stability and market efficiency [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a carbon market weekly report dated November 07, 2025, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Carbon Market Weekly Summary - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 10,525,810 tons and 487,117,084.12 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, they were 30,936,720 tons and 1,496,842,246.87 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,475,000 yuan [7] - In the first week of November, the comprehensive price had a high of 58.51 yuan/ton, a low of 51.54 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57.79 yuan/ton, up 11.22% from the previous Friday. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 3,981,155 tons and 209,744,110.26 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, 5,154,502 tons and 248,501,748.01 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,894,850 yuan. The total trading volume and turnover were 9,235,657 tons and 463,140,708.27 yuan [7] - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining. The current price is around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the 2024 high. The new policy aims to solve the problem of enterprises' reluctance to sell. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule. The price may stabilize after the selling pressure eases in November [8] - According to the Fudan Carbon Index, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [8][9] Group 3: Market News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that in September, the全社会 electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, up 4.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year - on - year. The third - quarter electricity consumption was 2.9 trillion kWh, driven by high - temperature in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [10] - On October 24, it was announced that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, build a new energy system, and implement the dual - control system of carbon emission volume and intensity. It aims to reach about 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste utilization by 2030 and save over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries, reducing about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - Recently, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market to mainly cover industrial emission industries by 2027, implement quota control and paid distribution, gradually tighten quotas, strengthen the synergy between the carbon market and industrial policies, and accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [10] Group 4: Market Data - There are figures about the national carbon market price trend, pilot carbon market price, power generation year - on - year growth rate, and new power generation equipment year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [6][7][12]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China experienced a price increase, with the closing price at 54.86 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of 3.78% compared to the previous day [1] Trading Data Summary - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 1,399,363 tons, with a total transaction value of 73,447,292.03 yuan [1] - The breakdown of today's trading included 844,102 tons in listed agreement transactions valued at 44,910,195.57 yuan, and 555,261 tons in bulk agreement transactions valued at 28,537,096.46 yuan [1] - Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances has reached 145,569,252 tons, with a total transaction value of 9,076,269,010.81 yuan [1] - As of November 6, 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market stands at 775,837,916 tons, with a total transaction value of 52,108,996,114.32 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent document outlines a plan to establish a national carbon emissions trading market by 2030, focusing on a quota system that combines free and paid allocations to drive market-based emissions reductions [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Quota System - Quotas are described as "environmental food stamps" issued by the government to companies, allowing them to sell excess allowances if they manage to reduce emissions effectively [1] - The plan includes a timeline for adjusting quota distribution methods, prioritizing total quota control for stable-emission industries by 2027 [1] Transition from Intensity Control to Total Control - The current method of carbon quota distribution is based on intensity control, which limits emissions per unit of output but does not cap total emissions [1] - This approach has limitations, including unclear reduction expectations and insufficient constraints on emissions, prompting a shift to total emissions control [1] Market Mechanism and Paid Allocation - The carbon market, which will include sectors like steel and cement by 2024, is expected to cover over 60% of national CO2 emissions, facilitating the breakdown of national reduction targets to the enterprise level [2] - The transition from free to paid quota distribution is necessary to enhance market liquidity and reduce volatility, as evidenced by the EU's experience with a 60% paid allocation rate [2] Implementation and Fairness - The document emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in quota distribution, ensuring it is neither too lenient nor too strict, to meet national reduction goals while being fair to advanced companies [3] - Strict regulations will be enforced to ensure accurate carbon emissions data and compliance in quota transactions, enhancing the traceability of each quota [3] Future Outlook - The implementation of these measures is expected to accelerate the transition to a market-driven carbon market, positioning it as a key driver for green transformation in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Germany has achieved its 2028 coal power reduction target ahead of schedule, eliminating the need for a second consecutive year of mandated coal plant closures [1] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Federal Network Agency of Germany announced that the mid-term target for coal power reduction by 2028 is set at 8,700 megawatts, and as of September 1, the country has exceeded this target by approximately 10% [1] - The country plans to completely phase out coal power by 2038, although some large lignite plants related to mining operations have been granted extended closure periods to address unemployment concerns [1] Group 2: Energy Market Dynamics - Currently, nearly two-thirds of Germany's electricity comes from renewable sources, leading to frequent instances of surplus solar power that drive electricity prices below zero, significantly reducing the profitability of coal power generation [1] - Coal plant operators are required to purchase carbon emission allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System, with prices fluctuating between €60 and €84 per ton this year, currently around €74 per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell gave a dovish signal [2][4]. - Silver: It is expected to reach its previous high [2][5]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2][12]. - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a narrow range [2][15]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price will fluctuate [2][19]. - Tin: It will oscillate within a range [2][22]. - Aluminum: Fluctuations will converge; Alumina will decline slightly; Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel: It will operate in a narrow - range oscillation; Stainless steel will experience short - term low - level fluctuations [2][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Comex Gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20; London Gold Spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex Silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390; London Silver Spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Comex Gold 2510 trading volume increased by 59,697 to 179,273, and open interest decreased by 2,083 to 323,440; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume increased by 10,840 to 31,554, and open interest remained unchanged at 90,075 [5]. - **Inventory**: Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 to 38,573,764; Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) remained unchanged at 508,499,193 [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple events including geopolitical issues, corporate lawsuits, and policy changes in different countries and regions [7][9][11]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 1; Silver trend intensity: 1 [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Copper main contract rose 1.32% to 79,690, and the night - session price was 79640, down 0.06%; LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.77% to 9,809 [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper main contract trading volume increased by 53,037 to 87,895, and open interest increased by 20,929 to 169,761; LME Copper 3M electronic disk trading volume increased by 6,274 to 16,941, and open interest increased by 3,555 to 268,000 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 401 to 23,747; LME Copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155,975, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.77% to 8.03% [12]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had under - expected housing sales and weak business activity index [12]. - Micro: China's refined copper imports in July 2025 decreased 0.32% month - on - month but increased 12.05% year - on - year; Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [12][14]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [14]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.54% to 22395; LME Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume increased by 42715 to 131380, and open interest decreased by 2533 to 105259; LME Zinc trading volume increased by 948 to 8247, and open interest increased by 1465 to 193310 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2403 to 35194; LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1300 to 68075 [15]. 3.3.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The government plans to implement carbon emission quota control for certain industries [16]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: 0 [18]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Lead main contract rose 0.39% to 16845; LME Lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume increased by 18257 to 41202, and open interest decreased by 13190 to 27975; LME Lead trading volume increased by 1725 to 5119, and open interest increased by 3430 to 160840 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory increased by 2 to 58948; LME Lead inventory decreased by 6550 to 273050 [19]. 3.4.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had concerns about its economic health [20]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [20]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930; LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract trading volume decreased by 2,103 to 34,606, and open interest decreased by 671 to 18,073; LME Tin 3M electronic disk trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [23]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 205 to 7,053; LME Tin inventory increased by 45 to 1,785, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 0.38% to 6.57% [23]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple geopolitical and policy - related events [24][25]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 1 [26]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20770; LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2622. The LME注销仓单 ratio was 2.77% [27]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3184 [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [27]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - The outcome of the US - South Korea leaders' meeting [28]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [28]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,310; 1 imported nickel was priced at 120,350 [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,880 [29]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [34].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a one-day rebound, with major indices retreating and the Dow Jones leaving record highs. Pharmaceutical stocks, particularly Merck, fell over 2% following Trump's remarks on drug price reductions [1][28] - Technology giants showed mixed results: Microsoft and Apple declined, while Nvidia rose by 1% and Tesla by nearly 2% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a four-day rise, with Pinduoduo's stock increasing nearly 5% after its earnings report, ultimately closing up by nearly 0.9% [1] Company News - Orsted, a Danish wind energy giant, saw its stock drop over 16% after the US government halted a wind power project [2][31] - Puma's stock surged by 16% amid reports that its major shareholder, the Pino family, is considering selling shares [2][21] - Nvidia announced its new Jetson Thor AI, which boasts a 6.5 times increase in computing power compared to its predecessor, aimed at real-time AI processing [19] - Google detailed its next-generation Ironwood TPU architecture, achieving a 16-fold performance increase, with a single chip reaching 4614 TFLOPs [19] - Pinduoduo reported a 7% slowdown in revenue growth for Q2, with net profit decline narrowing to 4%, better than expected [11][26] Industry Insights - The AI sector is witnessing a shift towards application layers, with GPU demand surging by 20 times due to the transition to new computing paradigms [29] - The wind energy sector is expected to see growth in gearbox components due to increasing market share and demand [32] - The steel industry is showing strong performance, with some leading companies achieving high growth despite high baseline performance [32]