金十数据5月14日讯，欧佩克月报：将2025年全球经济增长预测下调至2.9%（之前为3.0%），维持2026 年预测为3.1%。 欧佩克下调今年全球经济增长预期 维持明年增长预期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the conclusion of the China-US tariff agreement, the market's downward revision expectations for global economic growth have been corrected, and expectations for oil demand have started to be revised upward. After April 2, mainstream institutions revised down oil demand by 200,000 - 500,000 barrels per day, and after the agreement, it is expected to be revised up by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day. The subsequent adjustment depends on the tariff issue game after 90 days, but it will basically not be worse than the post - April 2 expectations [2] - After the China-US trade agreement was reached, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded in the short term, and a short - position allocation was recommended in the medium term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.72, closing at $63.67 per barrel, a gain of 2.78%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.67, closing at $66.63 per barrel, a gain of 2.57%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.70%, at 491 yuan per barrel [1] - US inflation cooled, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. Core CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year, the slowest pace since the inflation outbreak in spring 2021. Housing costs remained the key to inflation, while airfares, used car prices, and food prices declined. However, the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged, and enterprises may be digesting inventories [1] - Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US, covering arms, technology, Boeing aircraft, infrastructure, and data centers. The White House said that the US and Saudi Arabia reached the largest - scale commercial agreement in the history of the two countries, including $80 billion in high - tech investments from companies such as Google, DataVolt, and Oracle, a $20 billion AI data center and energy infrastructure investment from DataVolt, a $4.8 billion Boeing aircraft purchase, and an arms sales agreement of nearly $142 billion. The Saudi Crown Prince said that Saudi Arabia will strive to increase its investment in the US to $1 trillion [1] - The US State Department imposed a new round of sanctions on the shipping network related to Iran, stating that Iran's illegal oil sales fund Iran's weapons and Houthi attacks and will continue to exert maximum pressure on Iran [1] - For the week ending May 9 in the US, API crude oil inventories were 4.287 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels; gasoline inventories were - 1.374 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.714 million barrels and a previous value of - 1.974 million barrels; refined oil inventories were - 3.675 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.372 million barrels and a previous value of 2.242 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories were - 0.85 million barrels, compared with a previous value of - 0.854 million barrels [1] - After the China - US tariff agreement was reached, foreign investment banks raised their economic growth expectations for China. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's recent quarterly GDP, expecting enterprises to accelerate exports to take advantage of lower tariffs. JPMorgan Chase raised China's GDP growth rate (quarter - on - quarter annualized growth rate) from the second to the fourth quarter to 3% [1] Investment Logic - Diesel is the most affected by tariffs (freight and logistics industry), followed by fuel oil and jet fuel (shipping and aviation), then naphtha (chemical industry), and gasoline is the least affected and benefits from the demand elasticity after the oil price decline [2] Strategy - After the China - US trade agreement was reached, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded in the short term, and a short - position allocation was recommended in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks include a significant increase in OPEC production and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include a tightening of supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]

智通财经4月23日电，瑞银集团全球研究部将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.5%，低于之前预测的 2.9%。 ...

IMF世界经济展望报告：将2026年全球经济增长预期从3.3%下调至3%。 ...

国际货币基金组织22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至 2.8%，较今年1月预测值低0.5个百分点。将美国2025年GDP增长预测从2.7%下调至1.8%。 ...

智通财经4月22日电，国际货币基金组织发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长 预期从年初的3.3%下调至2.8%，2026年预计为3%。而美国关税措施的冲击和政策的不确定性将在短期 内导致全球经济显著放缓。 IMF将2025年全球经济增长预期从年初的3.3%下调至2.8% ...