Economic Overview - The global economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with total demand slightly rebounding and total supply remaining stable. However, the growth outlook for Q4 is mixed, with increasing uncertainties and structural characteristics becoming more pronounced [1][10][11] - Major economies exhibited divergent performances: the US economy improved, Europe showed weak recovery, Japan faced growth pressures, and India exceeded expectations [10][11][12] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is decreasing, but the pace of decline is slowing and becoming more differentiated. In August, the US CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the Eurozone HICP increased by 2.1% [1][22][23] - Trade policies have seen a reduction in their disruptive impact, with the WTO raising its 2025 goods trade growth forecast to 0.9% [1][26][27] Financial Market Adjustments - The financial markets have undergone significant adjustments, with the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance and cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September. This led to a net inflow of $82.98 billion into emerging market securities in July and August [2][3][10] - The dollar index has been fluctuating at low levels, and global stock markets have generally trended upward, with the MSCI global index rising over 10% [2][3][10] Capital Flows and Investment Trends - International capital is returning to emerging markets, with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia and Mexico expected to continue growing. Emerging market securities are increasingly favored by investors seeking resilient economies [2][11][12] - The report highlights potential areas for deepening cooperation between China and Europe in trade, green transformation, investment agreements, and multilateral governance under the backdrop of Trump's second term [2][11] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal stance, but fiscal pressures are becoming more pronounced. The US fiscal deficit for FY 2025 is projected to grow by 7.7% year-on-year [2][33][36] - The Eurozone's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 78.1%, indicating increasing fiscal challenges [2][33][36]

对于众多外贸企业而言，新兴市场的巨大潜力带来了无限商机，但收款环节的顺畅与否直接影响业务拓 展。PingPong外贸收款凭借其专业、高效、安全的服务，成为企业开拓新兴市场的得力伙伴。PingPong 支持全球多个国家和地区的收款，覆盖众多新兴市场，能够满足企业多样化的业务需求。其交易处理速 度快，可大幅缩短资金回笼周期，提高企业资金周转效率。同时，PingPong严格遵循国际金融安全标 准，采用多重加密技术和安全防护体系，保障企业资金安全无忧。 在全球贸易格局深刻变革的当下，PingPong外贸收款将持续助力企业把握新兴市场机遇，实现业务的稳 健增长。 这种增长是"各取所需"的互利合作。"中国制造"借助中欧班列等通道，将机电产品、绿色装备等送往共 建国家，满足当地生产消费需求；共建国家的特色农产品、能源资源则进入中国市场，丰富消费者选 择，为当地创造就业与收入。新兴市场的崛起，让中国外贸摆脱对单一市场的依赖，推动全球贸易格局 向更均衡、更包容方向发展。 新兴市场正成为全球贸易的"增长引擎"，激活贸易发展新动能。中国与新兴市场的深度绑定，为外贸增 长注入强劲动力。2024年，我国对东盟、拉美、非洲、中亚等新兴市 ...

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's 2025 World Trade Report indicates that with the right supportive policies, artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of cross-border goods and services flow by nearly 40% by 2040 [1][2] - Global trade is projected to grow between 34% and 37%, while global GDP may increase by 12% to 13% by 2040, driven by AI advancements [1] - The report estimates that the total trade value of AI-enabled products will reach $2.3 trillion in 2023, highlighting the significant economic impact of AI on trade [1] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for open and predictable trade policies, as the number of restrictions on AI-related products has surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024 [2] - Investment in education and training, along with appropriate labor market policies, is essential to prevent widening inequalities within economies [2] - Increased commitments from member countries, such as broader participation in the WTO's Information Technology Agreement and updates to the General Agreement on Trade in Services, can enhance the inclusivity and affordability of AI [2]

Core Insights - Standard Chartered Group's latest report highlights that mainland China remains a preferred market for global companies to restructure their supply chains amid geopolitical changes [1] - The report indicates a shift in China's industry from labor-intensive manufacturing to higher value-added segments [1] - The survey covered 1,200 executives and decision-makers across 17 global markets, projecting trends in global trade and corporate strategic priorities over the next three to five years [1] Industry Trends - There is a growing demand from clients to reshape global trade and supply chain ecosystems, with an increased adoption of smart manufacturing and artificial intelligence to enhance efficiency and offset rising costs [1] - Despite short-term trade fragmentation potentially hindering global growth, the prosperity of emerging economies and advancements in new technologies present complex yet promising opportunities for global trade [1] Company Role - Chinese enterprises are increasingly acting as innovators and enablers in the deep restructuring of global supply chains [1] - There is a notable change in corporate financial needs, with a focus on flexible allocation of cross-border funds, localized settlement capabilities, multi-currency fund management efficiency, and global visibility and compliance requirements [1] - Standard Chartered aims to play the role of a "super connector" by closely monitoring client needs and providing innovative cross-border financial solutions to build localized, regionalized, and digital supply chain systems [1]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report predicts that with appropriate policy support, AI applications could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% and increase global GDP by 12% to 13% by 2040, highlighting the significant potential of AI technology [1][4] Group 1: Impact on Global Trade - AI is expected to significantly reduce trade costs by improving efficiency in traditional international trade processes such as information search, contract signing, cross-border payments, and logistics, with smart customs systems potentially shortening clearance times by 70% and AI-driven supply chain management reducing logistics costs by 20% to 30% [1] - AI-driven smart manufacturing systems are reshaping global value chain dynamics, allowing developing countries to integrate more easily into global trade by responding flexibly to market demand changes and creating new trade categories through innovation [1] Group 2: Inclusion of SMEs - AI-driven trade platforms are lowering barriers for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate in global trade, providing tools for global market access, multilingual customer service, and smart marketing, thus enhancing the inclusivity and accessibility of global trade [2] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The development of global trade through AI faces challenges such as the digital divide, with developed countries having advanced infrastructure and resources while many developing nations struggle with weak digital foundations and talent shortages. Effective international cooperation is needed to address these issues [2] - Strengthening international cooperation on digital infrastructure is crucial to help developing countries improve network coverage and reduce digital access costs, while also sharing technology and knowledge to bridge the digital divide [2] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Countries should establish an open, inclusive, and non-discriminatory AI trade policy environment, avoiding unnecessary trade restrictions and fostering dialogue through multilateral platforms like the WTO to create a predictable policy environment for AI-enabled trade [3] - Developed countries should support the capacity building of developing nations in AI through technology transfer and training, while international organizations can facilitate knowledge sharing and promote successful AI applications in trade [3] Group 5: China's Role - China plays a significant role in promoting global trade through AI, possessing a complete AI industry ecosystem and leading capabilities in e-commerce, smart logistics, and digital payments. China is encouraged to participate in global governance of AI and share its successful experiences to contribute to a balanced and inclusive global trade framework [3]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report predicts that with appropriate policy support, AI applications could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% and increase global GDP by 12% to 13% by 2040, highlighting the significant potential of AI technology [1][4] Group 1: Impact on Trade Costs and Efficiency - AI can significantly reduce trade costs by improving efficiency in traditional international trade processes such as information search, contract signing, cross-border payments, and logistics. For instance, intelligent customs systems can shorten clearance times by 70%, while AI-driven supply chain management can lower logistics costs by 20% to 30% [1] Group 2: Reshaping Global Value Chains - AI-driven smart manufacturing systems enhance production flexibility, allowing for quicker responses to market demand changes, thus facilitating the integration of developing countries into global value chains. Additionally, AI is creating new trade categories through product design and innovation, such as smart home devices and autonomous vehicles [1] Group 3: Inclusion of SMEs in Global Trade - AI-driven trade platforms are lowering barriers for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate in global trade by providing global market access, multilingual customer service, and smart marketing tools, thereby enhancing the inclusivity and accessibility of global trade [2] Group 4: Challenges and International Cooperation - The advancement of AI in global trade faces challenges such as the digital divide, with developed countries having superior infrastructure and talent compared to many developing nations. To maximize AI's potential in trade, international cooperation is essential to improve digital infrastructure and reduce the digital gap [2] Group 5: Policy Environment and Capacity Building - Establishing an open, inclusive, and non-discriminatory AI trade policy environment is crucial. Countries should avoid unnecessary trade restrictions and work through multilateral platforms to create standards and reduce trade barriers. Additionally, developed nations should support capacity building in developing countries through technology transfer and training [3] Group 6: China's Role in AI and Global Trade - China possesses a comprehensive AI industry ecosystem and is a global leader in AI applications related to e-commerce, smart logistics, and digital payments. The country is encouraged to actively participate in global AI governance and share successful experiences to support the capacity building of developing nations [3]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report highlights the significant impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for multilateral cooperation to ensure inclusive growth rather than exacerbating disparities [1][5] Group 1: Opportunities and Potential of AI in Trade - AI technologies can enhance efficiency in various sectors such as consulting and R&D, potentially increasing global total factor productivity by an additional 0.68% annually [1] - By 2040, global trade is projected to increase by 34% to 37%, with global GDP rising by 12% to 13%, and trade in digitally deliverable services, including AI services, expected to grow by 42% [1] - AI can optimize supply chains, improve customs and compliance efficiency, reduce cross-border communication costs, and assist small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in entering international markets [1][2] Group 2: AI's Role in Market Participation - 90% of companies utilizing AI report trade benefits, with 56% indicating improved risk management capabilities [2] - AI can facilitate broader market participation, particularly benefiting SMEs and developing countries by overcoming barriers such as high compliance costs and insufficient market information [2] - The technology can provide new export opportunities for low-income countries through remote services and online applications [2] Group 3: Risks and Challenges Posed by AI - AI may exacerbate the digital divide, with high-income economies having advanced capabilities compared to low-income countries, potentially leading to a 14% income growth in high-income countries versus only 8% in low-income countries by 2040 [3] - The disparity in AI adoption rates, with over 60% in large enterprises compared to 41% in small enterprises, highlights the challenges faced by lower-income economies [3] - AI's impact on labor markets could threaten jobs in sectors like translation and customer support, which are crucial for low-income countries' export opportunities [3] Group 4: Policy Recommendations for Inclusive Growth - Countries are urged to prepare policies, infrastructure, and capacity building to support AI development, including maintaining low tariffs and open markets [4] - Investment in education and training programs for AI, as well as improvements in data governance and infrastructure, are essential to bridge the skills gap [4] - Support for SMEs in AI adoption and a balanced approach to intellectual property and competition policies are necessary to prevent market concentration [4] Group 5: Importance of International Cooperation - The report stresses the need for enhanced international cooperation in AI governance, particularly in trade-related aspects, to avoid regulatory fragmentation [5] - Inclusive collaboration should involve both high-income and low-income countries in the global AI governance framework [5] - Strategic actions today will determine AI's future impact, with proactive measures potentially transforming AI into a driver of global trade and inclusive growth [5]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that with appropriate policy support, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% by 2040 [1] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global trade and GDP growth, with trade volumes projected to increase by 34% to 37% and global GDP by 12% to 13% by 2040, depending on policy and technological advancements [1] - The WTO emphasizes the potential of AI to reduce trade costs and improve productivity, but highlights the uneven ability of different economies to access AI technology and participate in digital trade [1] Trade and AI Development - Trade can facilitate access to AI and the necessary investments for its development, promoting innovation and opening new pathways for growth [1] - To harness the potential of AI in trade, stakeholders must take deliberate actions to bridge the digital divide and promote regulatory consistency [1] Policy Recommendations - The report notes a significant increase in restrictions on AI-related goods, from 130 measures in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, urging the need for open and predictable trade policies [1] - Strengthening international cooperation, particularly in the intersection of AI and trade, is essential for broader participation in AI development across economies [1] - The WTO is positioned to play a central role in ensuring that AI supports inclusive trade-led growth [1]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that with appropriate policy support, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% by 2040 [1] - The report indicates that global trade volume is expected to increase by 34% to 37% and global GDP by 12% to 13% by 2040, depending on policy and technological advancements [1] - The WTO emphasizes the significant potential of AI in reducing trade costs and enhancing productivity, but highlights the uneven access to AI technology and digital trade participation among economies [1] Trade and AI Development - Trade can facilitate access to AI and the necessary investments for its development, promoting innovation dissemination and opening new development pathways [1] - To realize the potential of AI in trade, stakeholders must consciously take actions to bridge the digital divide and promote regulatory consistency [1] Policy Recommendations - The report notes a dramatic increase in restrictions on AI-related goods, from 130 measures in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, urging the need for open and predictable trade policies [1] - Strengthening international cooperation, particularly in the intersection of AI and trade, is essential for broader participation in AI development across economies [1] - The WTO can play a central role in ensuring that AI supports inclusive trade-led growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's exports have declined for the fourth consecutive month, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs under President Trump's trade policies, particularly affecting trade with the U.S. [1][3] Export Performance - In August, Japan's export value decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with automobiles and steel being the main contributors to this decline [1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 13.8%, with automobile exports falling by 28.4% and export volume down by 9.5% [3][4] - Exports to China decreased by 0.5%, while exports to Europe increased by 5.5% [3] Trade Balance - Japan's trade balance recorded a deficit of 242.5 billion yen (approximately 1.7 billion USD) [3] - The import value fell by 5.2%, which was worse than the consensus expectation of a 4.1% decline [3] Economic Implications - The ongoing decline in exports poses risks to Japan's fragile economic growth, potentially disrupting the desired cycle of inflation, wage growth, and overall economic expansion [3] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, may lead to cost-cutting measures that could suppress profit margins and wage growth [3][4] U.S. Trade Relations - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. was 324 billion yen, indicating ongoing pressure from the U.S. to reduce this gap [5] - The recent trade agreement, which includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese automobiles, may provide some relief, but its effectiveness will depend on Japan's commitment to invest 5.5 trillion yen as part of the agreement [4]