△联合国日内瓦办事处（资料图） 联合国贸易和发展会议（贸发会议）12月2日发布的《2025年贸易和发展报告》预计，2025年全球经济 增长将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的2.9%。报告重点关注了金融对贸易的影响，指出金融市场波动对全 球贸易的影响力几乎与实体经济活动相当，并影响全球的发展前景。 联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，研究结果表明金融环境正日益主导全球贸易走向，"贸易不仅是 一条供应链，更是信贷额度、支付系统、货币市场和资本流动的连接。" 报告指出，全球贸易逾90%依赖银行融资。美元流动性与跨境支付系统对国际贸易活动同样至关重要。 这种对金融渠道的深度依赖使贸易和全球金融货币环境紧密相连。主要金融中心利率变动或投资者情绪 波动，都可能影响全球贸易量。报告还强调了大宗商品市场，尤其是粮食市场上日益增强的金融因素， 其定价越来越反映金融策略而非供求关系。 报告认为，由于发展中经济体在全球金融市场中的作用依然有限，所以他们也面临日益上升的压力，包 括更高的融资成本、更易受资本流动突变影响，以及日益加剧的气候相关金融风险。这些因素限制了维 持发展中经济体增长所需的财政和投资空间。报告指出，地缘政治格局与政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024, highlighting the significant impact of financial markets on global trade [1] - The report emphasizes that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, indicating a deep dependence on financial channels that tightly connect trade and the global financial environment [1] - Changes in interest rates in major financial centers or fluctuations in investor sentiment can significantly affect global trade volumes, underscoring the interconnectedness of finance and trade [1] Group 2 - Developing economies face increasing pressures due to limited roles in global financial markets, leading to higher financing costs and vulnerability to capital flow volatility [2] - The report points out that geopolitical dynamics and policy shifts are reshaping globalization, necessitating adjustments in the financial system to better serve the needs of the real economy [2] - Climate-related financial risks are becoming more pronounced, further constraining the fiscal and investment space required for sustaining growth in developing economies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo's Zhenhai District export enterprises demonstrate strong resilience amid global trade uncertainties, with a total export value of 30.27 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] Group 1: Export Performance - The total export value of Zhenhai District reached 30.27 billion yuan from January to October, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - Duya Electromechanical Technology Co., Ltd. has seen a decline in U.S. orders due to escalating trade tensions, prompting a shift towards the European market [1][2] - The company’s exports to the EU increased by nearly 9 million yuan in the first three quarters compared to the previous year, with an expected annual EU export share of nearly 60% [3] Group 2: Tax Compliance and Support - Zhenhai District's tax authorities provided timely support to enterprises, helping them navigate complex tax regulations and compliance issues when entering new markets [3][4] - Companies like Ningbo Jialian Technology Co., Ltd. have established dedicated tax compliance roles and conducted extensive research on tax regulations in both China and Thailand to ensure compliance [4] - The tax department has facilitated a "one-stop" support platform, collaborating with customs, commerce, and insurance departments to bolster enterprises' confidence in international expansion [5][6] Group 3: Risk Management - Enterprises have identified over 40 tax-related issues and developed a comprehensive understanding of tax laws and practices in their target markets [4] - A cross-border payment risk control mechanism has been established to manage and document transactions, ensuring compliance with tax regulations [4] - The tax department has been proactive in providing risk prevention guidelines and monitoring potential tax compliance issues [3][5]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's total import and export value reached 3.74 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, maintaining its position as the leading city in mainland China [1] - Exports amounted to 2.27 trillion yuan, while imports were 1.47 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1] Export Summary - The export of electromechanical products continued to dominate, totaling 1.72 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4%, accounting for 75.7% of total exports [1] - In the traditional electronics sector, exports of computers and their components reached 263.96 billion yuan and 75.59 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% and 6.5% respectively [1] - Emerging industries saw significant export growth, with lithium batteries, 3D printers, and medical devices exporting 70.06 billion yuan, 6.75 billion yuan, and 25.12 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 35.6%, 19.8%, and 5.5% respectively [1] Import Summary - Imports exhibited strong production demand and an upgrade in demand for food and aquatic products, with a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in electromechanical product imports, growing by 8.5% [2] - Integrated circuits accounted for 661.53 billion yuan in imports, with an 18.4% increase, while computer components, primarily graphics cards and servers, reached 242.7 billion yuan, growing by 12.3% [2] - Agricultural product imports totaled 82.26 billion yuan, increasing by 10%, with food grains and aquatic products seeing remarkable growth rates of 107.7% and 36.2% respectively [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated revenue of $1.8 billion, a decrease of 36% year-over-year, primarily due to lower freight rates and volume [4][13] - Net income for Q3 was $123 million, down from $1.1 billion in the same quarter last year [20] - Adjusted EBITDA was $593 million with a margin of 33%, and adjusted EBIT was $260 million with a margin of 15%, compared to 55% and 45% respectively in Q3 2024 [19][20] - Total liquidity remained at $3 billion as of September 30, 2025 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average freight rate per TEU in Q3 was $1,602, down from $2,480 in Q3 2024 [14] - Carried volume in Q3 was 926,000 TEUs, a 4.5% decline year-over-year, but a 3.5% increase sequentially [20] - Revenues from non-containerized cargo totaled $78 million, down from $145 million in Q3 2024, attributed to lower volume and rates [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Trans-Pacific volume decreased by 1.5% year-over-year but increased by 17% sequentially [21] - Latin America trade volumes grew by 2.4% year-over-year [21] - The company noted ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions affecting the shipping industry [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on diversifying its network, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, to capture new trade opportunities as global trade patterns evolve [7][8] - A significant charter agreement for 10 LNG dual-fuel vessels is expected to enhance operational flexibility and sustainability [9][10] - The company aims to maintain a modern fleet, with approximately 60% of its capacity being new builds and 40% LNG-powered [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the fourth quarter, expecting weaker performance than initially projected [5][6] - The reopening of the Suez Canal is anticipated to improve fleet efficiency but may also increase supply pressure on freight rates [12][25] - The company remains confident in its strategy and competitive position despite ongoing market volatility [10][11] Other Important Information - The board declared a dividend of $0.31 per share, totaling approximately $37 million, representing 30% of Q3 net income [5] - Total dividends distributed since the IPO amount to approximately $5.7 billion, reflecting a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders [5][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Management buyout discussions - Management stated that there are no comments on the potential management buyout, and the board will decide on any related matters [28][30] Question: Return to the Red Sea - Management confirmed plans to return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal as soon as insurance approvals are obtained [32][44] Question: Dividend policy during negative net income - Management reiterated the dividend policy of distributing 30% of net profit quarterly, with the possibility of special dividends at the board's discretion [39][42] Question: Cost expectations for 2026 - Management indicated that costs would likely remain under pressure due to the current market dynamics and the need to redeliver older vessels [34][35] Question: Route profitability and capacity adjustments - Management noted that profitability varies by route and emphasized the importance of reliability in service as they expand into new markets [66][68]

这个狭窄、脆弱的水域，不仅是全球能源供应的关键，还是中东地区政治博弈的核心，就在全球油气运 输的动脉上，发生了一起令国际社会震惊的事件：伊朗革命卫队扣押了一艘国际油轮，并将其引至伊朗 水域。 前言 最近，世界最重要的航运通道——霍尔木兹海峡，再度成为全球关注的焦点。 这一事件不仅让伊朗与美国的紧张局势进一步升温，也让全球市场为之一震，美国立刻做出强烈回应， 表示将不惜一切代价保护在该地区的航运安全。 这场危机究竟意味着什么？它将如何影响全球经济和中东地区的安全格局？接下来，我们就来一探究 竟。 伊朗扣押油轮：一场引发全球震动的行动 伊朗革命卫队最近在霍尔木兹海峡实施了军事行动，扣押了悬挂马绍尔群岛旗帜的油轮MV Talara，事 情的经过简直像是一场电影般的上演：一架伊朗军用直升机出现在这艘商船上。 武装人员迅速登船，控制了船只，并强行将油轮引到伊朗港口，这一举动迅速引发了美国的强烈反应， 华盛顿认为这是对国际法的公然挑战，直接威胁到全球航运安全。 为什么这件事如此严重？首先，霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源供应的一个关键节点，每天，有约20%的全球 石油和液化天然气经过这里，任何在这个地区发生的冲突，都会直接影响全球 ...

Core Insights - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a significant platform for global products to enter the Chinese market, showcasing unique items from various countries and facilitating connections between international businesses and Chinese consumers [2][6][25] Group 1: Product Highlights - Malaysian company Jiasin Foods introduced natural dried fruits at CIIE, emphasizing the importance of ingredient transparency to Chinese consumers, particularly younger generations [5] - German company WEDO showcased high-tech titanium alloy tools, highlighting their applications in medical and aerospace fields, with prices significantly higher than standard tools due to advanced manufacturing processes [7][8] - Argentine beef producers leveraged CIIE to connect with Chinese consumers, adapting their products to meet local preferences, such as offering smaller packaging and collagen-rich cuts [13][16] Group 2: Market Opportunities - CIIE provides a unique opportunity for lesser-known global brands to reach Chinese consumers, transforming from exhibitors to potential investors [6][8] - Medtronic, a long-time participant, has evolved from a product exhibitor to an investor in local startups, reflecting the changing dynamics of the medical device industry in China [10][11] - Rwandan coffee producers are seeking long-term partnerships in China, indicating a growing interest in African products within the Chinese market [18][19] Group 3: Economic Impact - The CIIE has significantly influenced the sales and market strategies of international companies, with New Zealand's Zespri reporting a doubling of sales in China over eight years, reaching over 4.3 billion yuan in revenue [23][24] - The event is fostering deeper agricultural cooperation between China and Africa, moving from simple trade to building modern agricultural value chains [20][22]

Core Insights - The resilience of the Chinese economy is alleviating concerns for shipping companies amid the significant impact of President Trump's tariff policies on global trade [1] - Maersk Group's CEO, Vincent Clerc, emphasized that China is a "engine of stability and demand," capable of boosting global trade [1] - Maersk has raised its annual profit forecast due to strong consumer demand, despite the ongoing restructuring of supply chains [1] Company Performance - Maersk's Q3 financial results exceeded analyst expectations, with EBITDA declining 44% year-over-year to $2.69 billion, surpassing the forecast of $2.58 billion [2] - Revenue for Maersk fell 10% year-over-year to $14.2 billion, also above the expected $13.8 billion [2] - The company now anticipates EBITDA for the year to be between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, raising the lower end of its previous forecast [2] Market Outlook - Maersk expects global container shipping volume to grow by 4% this year, up from a prior estimate of 2% to 4% [1] - Despite the potential decline in shipping rates due to increased competition, demand for containers remains strong, particularly from China [2] - The Oxford Economics report predicts that China's exports to the U.S. may decrease by 18% by 2026, but global container trade is expected to grow by over 2% annually as production shifts across Asia [4]

Core Points - The "Shared Big Market · Export to China" initiative has been officially launched, representing a concrete measure to actively expand autonomous openness in China [1] - This initiative has received widespread praise from international organization leaders, foreign trade promotion agencies, and representatives from participating companies at the China International Import Expo [1] - China's role as a global trade stabilizer and cooperation platform is increasingly recognized, showcasing its commitment to open trade through tangible actions rather than mere rhetoric [1][2] Group 1 - The initiative is seen as a strong signal to the global business community that China is not only a vast consumer market but also a platform for win-win cooperation through institutional innovation [1] - The initiative aims to promote inclusive global economic development, with the Ministry of Commerce emphasizing the importance of maintaining free trade and multilateral trade systems [2] - The initiative is expected to create opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from developing countries, allowing them to participate actively in global trade [2] Group 2 - China's experience in rapid deployment of renewable energy infrastructure serves as a reference model for international markets, aiding other countries in achieving net-zero goals [3] - There are significant mutually beneficial cooperation opportunities from both import and export perspectives, facilitating a process of experience sharing and mutual learning [3]

Core Viewpoint - The eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum focuses on the role of free trade zones in promoting industrial innovation and global trade [1] Group 1 - The forum is held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai on November 5 [1]