Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global trade and investment are under increasing pressure due to financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, with global economic growth expected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] - The report highlights that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, making trade closely linked to global financial and monetary conditions [1] - Developing economies are projected to grow at 4.3% in 2025, significantly higher than developed economies, but they face higher financing costs and increased vulnerability to sudden capital flow changes [1] Group 2 - The UNCTAD has proposed a series of practical reform suggestions aimed at reducing financial vulnerability and enhancing predictability, including improving multilateral trade dispute resolution mechanisms and updating trade rules [2] - Recommendations also include filling gaps in trade and investment statistics, reforming the international monetary system, and strengthening regional and domestic capital markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty are increasing pressures on global trade and investment, with a projected slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] - The report highlights that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, emphasizing the critical role of dollar liquidity and cross-border payment systems in international trade activities [1] - Developing economies are expected to grow at a rate of 4.3% in 2025, significantly higher than developed economies, but they face higher financing costs and are more susceptible to sudden changes in capital flows [1] Group 2 - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) proposed a series of practical reform suggestions aimed at reducing financial vulnerability, enhancing predictability, and strengthening the synergy between trade, finance, and development [2] - Suggested reforms include improving multilateral trade dispute resolution mechanisms, updating trade rules to fit current economic conditions, addressing gaps in trade and investment statistics, reforming the international monetary system, and strengthening regional and domestic capital markets [2]

报告指出，全球贸易逾90%依赖银行融资。美元流动性与跨境支付系统对国际贸易活动同样至关重 要。这种对金融渠道的深度依赖使贸易和全球金融货币环境紧密相连。主要金融中心利率变动或投资者 情绪波动，都可能影响全球贸易量。报告还强调了大宗商品市场，尤其是粮食市场上日益增强的金融因 素，其定价越来越反映金融策略而非供求关系。 联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)12月2日发布的《2025年贸易和发展报告》预计，2025年全球经 济增长将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的2.9%。报告重点关注了金融对贸易的影响，指出金融市场波动对 全球贸易的影响力几乎与实体经济活动相当，并影响全球的发展前景。 报告认为，由于发展中经济体在全球金融市场中的作用依然有限，所以他们也面临日益上升的压 力，包括更高的融资成本、更易受资本流动突变影响，以及日益加剧的气候相关金融风险。这些因素限 制了维持发展中经济体增长所需的财政和投资空间。报告指出，地缘政治格局与政策转向正重塑全球化 进程，而金融体系必须调整以更好地服务实体经济需要。 联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，研究结果表明金融环境正日益主导全球贸易走向，"贸易不 仅是一条供应链，更是信贷额度、 ...

黄金股、能源板块走低。美国能源跌超5%，金田、黄金资源跌超3%，泛美白银、科尔黛伦矿业跌超2%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙跌超1%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.65%。小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺跌超3%，蔚来、哔哩哔哩跌超2%，阿里巴巴跌近2%。 昨夜，美股科技股集体上涨，中概股表现相对弱势。黄金、白银则继续飙涨。 当地时间周二（12月2日），美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.39%，标普500指数涨0.25%，纳指涨0.59%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 47474.46c | 0.39% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23413.67c | 0.59% | | 标普500 | 6829.37c | 0.25% | 热门科技股多数上涨。苹果涨超1%，为连续第七个交易日上涨，续创历史新高；英特尔涨超8%，英伟达涨近1%。 | 分时 多日 日 周 月 季 半年 年 E ▼ F9 前复权 超级疆加 画线 | 工具 (2) | | 苹果(APPLE) | | AAPL | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)12月2日发布的《2025年贸易和发展报告》预计，2025年全球经济增 长将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的2.9%。报告重点关注了金融对贸易的影响，指出金融市场波动对全球 贸易的影响力几乎与实体经济活动相当，并影响全球的发展前景。 联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，研究结果表明金融环境正日益主导全球贸易走向，"贸易不仅是 一条供应链，更是信贷额度、支付系统、货币市场和资本流动的连接。" 报告认为，由于发展中经济体在全球金融市场中的作用依然有限，所以他们也面临日益上升的压力，包 括更高的融资成本、更易受资本流动突变影响，以及日益加剧的气候相关金融风险。这些因素限制了维 持发展中经济体增长所需的财政和投资空间。报告指出，地缘政治格局与政策转向正重塑全球化进程， 而金融体系必须调整以更好地服务实体经济需要。 报告指出，全球贸易逾90%依赖银行融资。美元流动性与跨境支付系统对国际贸易活动同样至关重要。 这种对金融渠道的深度依赖使贸易和全球金融货币环境紧密相连。主要金融中心利率变动或投资者情绪 波动，都可能影响全球贸易量。报告还强调了大宗商品市场，尤其是粮食市场上日益增强的金融因素， ...

△联合国日内瓦办事处（资料图） 联合国贸易和发展会议（贸发会议）12月2日发布的《2025年贸易和发展报告》预计，2025年全球经济 增长将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的2.9%。报告重点关注了金融对贸易的影响，指出金融市场波动对全 球贸易的影响力几乎与实体经济活动相当，并影响全球的发展前景。 联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，研究结果表明金融环境正日益主导全球贸易走向，"贸易不仅是 一条供应链，更是信贷额度、支付系统、货币市场和资本流动的连接。" 报告指出，全球贸易逾90%依赖银行融资。美元流动性与跨境支付系统对国际贸易活动同样至关重要。 这种对金融渠道的深度依赖使贸易和全球金融货币环境紧密相连。主要金融中心利率变动或投资者情绪 波动，都可能影响全球贸易量。报告还强调了大宗商品市场，尤其是粮食市场上日益增强的金融因素， 其定价越来越反映金融策略而非供求关系。 报告认为，由于发展中经济体在全球金融市场中的作用依然有限，所以他们也面临日益上升的压力，包 括更高的融资成本、更易受资本流动突变影响，以及日益加剧的气候相关金融风险。这些因素限制了维 持发展中经济体增长所需的财政和投资空间。报告指出，地缘政治格局与政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024, highlighting the significant impact of financial markets on global trade [1] - The report emphasizes that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, indicating a deep dependence on financial channels that tightly connect trade and the global financial environment [1] - Changes in interest rates in major financial centers or fluctuations in investor sentiment can significantly affect global trade volumes, underscoring the interconnectedness of finance and trade [1] Group 2 - Developing economies face increasing pressures due to limited roles in global financial markets, leading to higher financing costs and vulnerability to capital flow volatility [2] - The report points out that geopolitical dynamics and policy shifts are reshaping globalization, necessitating adjustments in the financial system to better serve the needs of the real economy [2] - Climate-related financial risks are becoming more pronounced, further constraining the fiscal and investment space required for sustaining growth in developing economies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. interest rates and the potential benefits and risks of interest rate cuts, particularly in the context of Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and its chairman Powell [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rates and Economic Impact - Trump has been vocal about the need for lower interest rates, arguing that current rates are too high and impose significant economic costs, estimating a $360 billion annual cost for each percentage point of high interest rates [5][7]. - High interest rates lead to reduced borrowing and spending, which can result in job losses and lower economic growth, as evidenced by the disappointing non-farm payroll data [8][10]. - Lowering interest rates could stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper, which is crucial for consumer spending and business expansion [7][11]. Group 2: Global Trade and Currency Dynamics - A reduction in interest rates could weaken the dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive while also mitigating the impact of tariffs on consumers [10][11]. - However, a weaker dollar could also lead to a stronger yuan, potentially harming China's export competitiveness and accelerating the shift of low-end manufacturing to Southeast Asia [21][23]. Group 3: Opportunities and Risks for Emerging Markets - Historically, U.S. rate cuts have led to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, which could benefit markets like China's A-shares [19]. - The influx of capital could also create asset bubbles and financial volatility, particularly in sectors like technology [21][24]. - To mitigate risks, China could enhance its import reserves and support high-tech industries while upgrading its manufacturing capabilities to counteract the effects of a weaker dollar [23][24].

Group 1 - Mizuho Securities warns that U.S. tariffs may have a significant impact on the global industrial ecosystem, affecting not only the taxed products but also related supply chains and industry networks, leading to a chain reaction [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists highlight the high volatility in the current financial landscape driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, with potential fiscal issues in the U.S. or U.K. being a source of volatility [1] - Apollo Global Management economists caution that stagflation risks will complicate Fed Chair Powell's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, with only one rate cut expected this year despite increased forecasts for unemployment and inflation [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley strategists note that the U.S. dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, which is a significant benefit for U.S. companies, especially large-cap stocks, due to their high overseas revenue exposure [3] - The trend towards a more fragmented global order is expected to lead to sustained inflation and rising interest rates, as central banks may adopt tightening monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures [2] - Temasek's Chief Investment Officer anticipates an economic recovery by the end of the year as uncertainties around tariffs diminish, alongside the implementation of Fed rate cuts and deregulation policies [3]