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一文讲清楚,特朗普强势降息意味什么,为什么是中国难得的机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 05:47
特朗普上台以后,经常在社交媒体上「炮轰」美联储和鲍威尔,咄咄逼人的态势有时候甚至比对中国都强横。 为啥呢?为什么特朗普一直在刀口向内呢?核心就一个词:降息。 那今天我们不拽什么术语,就一篇文章给你讲清楚,美国利率到底意味着什么,降息对咱们国家是好是坏。 大家应该都知道,美国没有央行的概念,美联储理论上说是个私人机构。 所以美国总统有时候没办法直接干预美国利率,但特朗普有自己的办法。 骂鲍威尔是太迟先生(Mr. Too Late),称其决策"混乱且危险",甚至威胁"越早走人越好",这一切行为都是想通过把鲍威尔钉在历史罪人的耻辱柱上,来 逼迫美联储降息。 为啥呢? 7月特朗普发了一个文,说美国利率至少偏高2个百分点,每个百分点每年造成3600亿美元成本。 这话到底有没有科学依据不重要,重要的是,特朗普点出了一个关键点,就是美国利率意味着经济成本。 道理很简单,利率高大家就喜欢存钱,不论是老百姓还是各种机构,都喜欢囤起来,安安稳稳的赚利息就好。 那市面上的钱就少了,对应的,融资成本也就高了(借钱的利率也就贵了嘛)。 举个例子,美国政府也借钱,也就是咱们常说的美国赤字。 那政府借钱,也是要还利息的。 2024年美国国 ...
每日机构分析:7月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 11:51
Group 1 - Mizuho Securities warns that U.S. tariffs may have a significant impact on the global industrial ecosystem, affecting not only the taxed products but also related supply chains and industry networks, leading to a chain reaction [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists highlight the high volatility in the current financial landscape driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, with potential fiscal issues in the U.S. or U.K. being a source of volatility [1] - Apollo Global Management economists caution that stagflation risks will complicate Fed Chair Powell's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, with only one rate cut expected this year despite increased forecasts for unemployment and inflation [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley strategists note that the U.S. dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, which is a significant benefit for U.S. companies, especially large-cap stocks, due to their high overseas revenue exposure [3] - The trend towards a more fragmented global order is expected to lead to sustained inflation and rising interest rates, as central banks may adopt tightening monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures [2] - Temasek's Chief Investment Officer anticipates an economic recovery by the end of the year as uncertainties around tariffs diminish, alongside the implementation of Fed rate cuts and deregulation policies [3]