2025.06. 09 本文字数：2444，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 王方然 创新药板块再度走强。6月9日，常山药业（300255.SZ）、舒泰神（300204.SZ）、睿智医药 （300149.SZ）、众生药业（002317.SZ）等多只A股涨停。港股的金斯瑞生物科技 （01548.HK）、四环医药（00460.HK）、诺诚健华（09969.HK）等大涨超10%。 记者注意到，这轮"吃药"行情与过往不同，涨幅龙头集中于创新药企业，且港股表现尤为强劲。 爆发并非偶然，而是政策、业绩与资金面多重因素共振的结果。不过，也有机构认为火热行情下暗藏 波动风险，提醒港股短期或面临获利回吐压力。 截至当日收盘，恒生创新药ETF（159316）、港股通医药ETF（513200）分别上涨4.08%、 4.25%。多只个股涨幅较大。当日盘中，三生制药（01530.HK）股价一度涨超10%，最高触及 22.5港元，距离7年前22.631港元的历史高点仅一步之遥。自今年2月以来，三生制药股价从6港元 的位置一路暴涨，涨幅超过260%。金斯瑞生物科技、四环医药、诺诚健华等涨超10%，信达生物 （01801.HK）、康 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for innovative drugs in 2025 is expected to be clear and profitable, particularly for those with overseas market potential, but selecting stocks will be challenging due to market sentiment and rapid shifts in hot sectors [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over 50 stocks have increased by more than 30% this year, with around 30 of these related to innovative drugs, indicating a strong correlation between stock performance and the innovative drug sector [3]. - Innovative drug assets, with clear labeling, have an average increase of 50%, with a median increase of 35% [4]. Group 2: High-Elasticity Stocks and Their Logic - Stocks like Shuyatong and Yipanghong have seen significant price increases due to their innovative drug targets and clinical progress, with Shuyatong's stock rising fourfold in two months [5][6]. - Sanofi's PD-1/VEGF dual antibody has doubled its market value due to a lucrative deal, showcasing the impact of strategic partnerships on stock performance [6]. - Yifang Bio's stock surged by 150% following positive clinical data, highlighting the importance of clinical trial results in driving stock prices [7]. - Stocks like Hot Scene Bio and Rongchang Bio have experienced substantial increases due to market sentiment and clinical data releases, with increases of 300% and 130% respectively [7][8]. Group 3: Characteristics of Innovative Drug Market - Stocks that have significantly outperformed typically have either strong clinical data or are widely recognized drugs, such as Yipanghong's gout medication and Taienkang's vitiligo treatment [10]. - The current market phase is characterized by a focus on pipeline exploration, with investors looking for promising clinical-stage products [13]. Group 4: Future Market Trends - Key events to watch for in the innovative drug sector include business development (BD) transactions, important data releases from clinical trials, and the potential for overvaluation leading to market corrections [15].

相反，今年以来随着南下资金的涌入带动的估值抬升，投向港股的QDII产品表现更为亮眼，尤其是医药主题 基金更是一骑绝尘，业绩排名前30的QDII几乎均重仓了港股创新药板块。 年内，"吃药"行情久别重逢，但与上一轮医药牛市不同，本轮涨幅亮眼的个股集中在创新药板块，且港股 市场表现尤佳，因此使得重仓港股医药板块的QDII基金业绩亮眼，内地医药主题基金也多凭借重仓港股才 能脱颖而出。 多位基金经理预计，从今年半年报开始市场将看到创新药企业收入的集体改善，这将吸引更广泛的资金关注； 此外，相较于A股，港股创新药行业在估值层面更具性价比优势，结合更好的基本面相对优势，也意味着潜在 的估值弹性或更大。 港股创新药包揽QDII涨幅榜 据Wind数据统计，截至6月2日，全市场310只QDII基金中，有256只产品年内净值增长，占比82.6%。其中有37 只产品年内净值增长率超过30%，42只基金收益率超过两成。 从历史来看，QDII基金业绩排名与投资主题高度相关，尤其是近几年，领跑的产品多为美股科技基金、黄金 主题以及原油等大宗商品主题基金，但风水轮流转，年内跌幅居前的原油天然气、标普生物以及纳斯达克主题 基金则多数告负。 以 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares has experienced a prolonged bear market lasting over three years, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index declining by 54% during this period [1] - Approximately two-thirds of the existing 600 pharmaceutical funds have a net value below 1 as of May 28, 2023, with the lowest at 0.35 [1] - However, more than half of the pharmaceutical funds achieved positive returns in 2025, with top performers yielding between 47% and 56% [1][2] Group 2 - The core factors driving the recovery of pharmaceutical funds include marginal improvements in the pharmaceutical sector's performance, despite ongoing revenue and profit declines [2][5] - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue is projected to decrease by 0.5% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 11% [2] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 3.4% and a net profit decrease of 4% [2][5] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation has reached historical lows, making it attractive for investors, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 29x at the beginning of the year [5] - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index has increased by 3.76% from the beginning of the year to May 28, 2023, with notable fluctuations in its performance [6][8] - The recovery in the pharmaceutical sector is driven by investor expectations of stabilization, supported by the release of quarterly reports [8] Group 4 - Innovative drugs are currently the main source of alpha in the pharmaceutical sector, with top-performing funds achieving returns exceeding 40% through active stock selection [9][12] - The top holdings of the Zhongyin Great Health A fund include several leading innovative pharmaceutical companies, all of which saw significant price increases in Q1 2025 [10][12] - The long-term investment strategy of the Zhongyin Great Health A fund focuses on domestic innovative drugs, despite the sector's previous downturn [12] Group 5 - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies supporting innovation, with the domestic innovative drug market entering a harvest phase [18] - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector has outperformed due to the market entry of innovative drugs and favorable policy expectations [14][17] - The performance of various pharmaceutical sub-sectors has shown significant differentiation, with innovative drugs presenting clearer investment opportunities [17][19]

Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector in China is showing strong performance, with significant transactions such as the $1.25 billion deal enhancing market confidence in the quality and market value of Chinese innovative drugs [1] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are increasingly making their mark in global licensing transactions and showcasing their clinical pipeline potential at major conferences like ASCO [2] - The outlook for the pharmaceutical sector is optimistic, with expectations of a reversal in market trends by 2025, driven by innovative drugs and the recovery of left-side sectors [1][2] Biopharmaceuticals - GSK announced FDA approval for mepolizumab as an additional maintenance treatment for poorly controlled chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, with projected global sales of €1.784 billion in 2024 [3] - There is a growing interest in IL-5 targeted drugs, with several domestic companies already engaged in this area [3] Medical Services & Consumer Healthcare - Alcon reported Q1 2025 surgical business net sales of $1.338 billion, a 1% year-on-year decline, but a 2% increase at constant exchange rates [4] - Vision care business net sales reached $1.106 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth, driven by innovations in contact lenses [4] Medical Devices - Johnson & Johnson Medical launched the SOUNDSTAR CRYSTAL ultrasound catheter in the U.S. for cardiac ablation procedures, indicating a rich pipeline of innovative products [5] - There is a strong long-term demand trend for innovative medical devices, with a focus on leading companies that are expected to rapidly scale new products [5] Pharmacies - A recent initiative by multiple government departments aims to enhance the health promotion functions of retail pharmacies, indicating a supportive policy environment for non-drug product expansion [6] - Continuous optimization of industry regulations and the implementation of drug traceability measures are expected to create a more favorable environment for pharmacies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical market, particularly innovative drug companies, is experiencing significant growth, with substantial support from policies, leading to the emergence of high-performing stocks similar to Changchun Gaoxin. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug index has increased from 859 points at the beginning of the year to 1284 points, representing a 50% rise [1] - The mainland innovative drug index has risen from a low of 948 to a high of 1156, showing a 22% increase, indicating a significant lag compared to Hong Kong [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Several stocks in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector have seen substantial gains, such as: - Kintor Pharmaceutical rising from 2.48 to 19.78 HKD - Akeso increasing from 1.2 to 4.3 HKD - CanSino Biologics moving from 2 to 8.73 HKD - CStone Pharmaceuticals growing from 0.8 to 3.89 HKD - Innovent Biologics increasing from 26.45 to 105.5 HKD [4] - The current bullish trend in Hong Kong's innovative drug sector is viewed as just the beginning, with expectations of a long-term market cycle lasting 50 years [4] Group 3: Historical Comparisons - Historical data from 2005 to 2007 shows that Hong Kong real estate stocks typically initiated their upward trends over six months before A-share stocks, with A-share stocks generally experiencing greater increases [5] - Examples include: - China Overseas Land rising from 2.29 to 21.95 HKD - Vanke increasing from 6.76 to 33.82 HKD - Deep Zhenye rising from 19.90 to 271.8 HKD [5] - The patterns observed in the real estate sector may provide insights into the potential trajectory of mainland innovative drug stocks, suggesting a possible follow-up to the Hong Kong market's performance [5]

Group 1 - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index (931250) has seen a strong increase of 1.53% as of May 13, 2025, with notable gains from companies such as Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (09995) up 6.01%, BeiGene (06160) up 5.01%, and others [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) opened higher by nearly 3% and is currently up 1.63%, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 20.57% and a transaction volume of 102 million yuan [1] - Over the past three months, the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 385 million yuan, making it the top fund in its category [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities states that the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to the entire A-share market is currently at a normal level, with a relative premium rate of 79.18% as of May 9, 2025 [2] - The ongoing listing of leading pharmaceutical company Heng Rui Medicine in the Hong Kong market is expected to enhance domestic and foreign investors' attention towards the domestic pharmaceutical industry, potentially catalyzing the innovative drug market [2] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) closely tracks the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, selecting 50 companies involved in innovative drug research and development, reflecting the overall performance of innovative drug companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2]