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贝森特为特朗普辩护:没人比他更懂谈判
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-28 04:41
4月初,特朗普宣布对数十个国家征收一系列高额关税,这一举动在全球引起了轩然大波,其中许多国 家几十年来一直是美国可靠的贸易伙伴。 然而,在他宣布这一消息仅仅几天后,特朗普将最高关税暂停了90天,但仍对大多数国家保留了10%的 基础税率。 特朗普宣布一系列征税措施的动机是为了应对贸易逆差,并重新调整他长期以来一直认为的那些使美国 ——尤其是美国制造业——在全球市场上处于重大劣势的关税政策。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特(Scott Bessent)表示,特朗普在与世界各国领导人的贸易谈判中正在运 用"战略不确定性"。 上周日,贝森特接受了美国广播公司(ABC)新闻频道"本周"节目联合主持人玛莎·拉德茨(Martha Raddatz)的采访,尽管选民对特朗普在经济方面的处理方式的支持率有所下降,他仍坚定地为特朗普 的关税政策进行了辩护。 贝森特在谈到特朗普反复无常的关税策略时表示:"在博弈论中,这被称为'战略不确定性'。所以你不 会告诉谈判另一方你最终的立场。没有人比特朗普总统更擅长创造这种谈判优势了。" 他接着说:"他已经亮出了这些高额关税——这就是大棒。而胡萝卜则是'到我们这里来,取消你们的关 税,取消你们的非 ...
经济学视角下的军事史
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-04-03 14:03
Core Argument - The article discusses the application of economic principles, particularly opportunity cost and information asymmetry, in military history, illustrating how these concepts can provide insights into historical military decisions and strategies [2][14]. Group 1: Economic Principles in Military History - The concept of "economic imperialism" has extended beyond traditional economic issues into various fields, including military strategy, where game theory has become integral to nuclear strategy [1]. - The book "Castles, Battles, and Bombs: Seven Economic Lessons About War" aims to reinterpret military history through basic economic principles, demonstrating how economic analysis can yield new insights [2][4]. Group 2: Opportunity Cost and Castles - Castles served as significant military structures in the Middle Ages, providing defensive advantages but at a high construction cost, leading to a dilemma for monarchs between building castles and maintaining large armies [5][6]. - The high costs associated with castles often made them less favorable compared to the flexibility and mobility offered by armies, highlighting the opportunity cost of military investments [6][7]. Group 3: Mercenaries and Information Asymmetry - The use of mercenaries has a long history, with city-states often relying on them due to the high costs of conscripting local populations and the need for skilled fighters [9][10]. - Contracts with mercenaries were complex and aimed at mitigating information asymmetry and ensuring accountability, reflecting the economic principles of agency theory [10][11][12]. Group 4: Economic Rationality in Military Decisions - The article argues that historical military leaders, despite their lack of formal economic training, often made decisions that aligned with economic rationality, such as weighing costs and benefits in military engagements [15]. - The persistence of economic principles in military decision-making suggests that further investment in economic analysis within military history research could yield valuable insights [15].