Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. With Trump's official announcement of the US - Japan trade agreement this morning, the overall financial market sentiment warmed up, and oil prices recovered to some extent. The decline in API crude oil inventory was small, while the refined oil inventory in the downstream increased significantly, which put some pressure on the optimistic demand during the subsequent summer peak season. Short - term oil prices will continue to oscillate. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. - The short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up the market, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other factors are all neutral. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, under which Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff. The details of the agreement, especially regarding whether Japanese automobiles and parts will be exempted from the 25% tariff, have not been fully disclosed. Japan's government officials said that Japan and the US have agreed to reduce the automobile tariff to 15% [5]. - The Canadian Prime Minister tried to lower the outside world's expectations of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days, saying that the negotiation was difficult due to the US government's changing goals. Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if an agreement is not reached by August 1st [5]. - API data showed that for the week ending July 18th, US crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increased by 3.48 million barrels [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to Rise**: The short - term geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the summer demand begins to increase [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and Iran and Israel have ceased fire [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Compared with the previous value, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased, with declines of - 0.90%, - 0.97%, - 1.69%, and - 0.39% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of British Brent, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased compared with the previous value, with declines of - 0.79%, - 2.81%, - 0.17%, - 0.58%, and - 0.38% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show the changes in US crude oil inventory over time. As of July 18th, API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels; as of July 11th, EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels [10][12]. 5. Position Data - As of July 15th, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3]. - The data on the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds show their changes over time [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in oil prices, with SC crude oil futures dropping nearly 15% from their June highs, as geopolitical risk premiums have been rapidly eliminated [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in oil prices is attributed to global trade tensions and increased production by OPEC+, resulting in a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with seasonal demand already priced in [1][2]. - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, driven by low global oil inventories, which have remained relatively low since 2020 [1][2]. - The ongoing restructuring of global trade routes and regional disparities in oil inventories have contributed to lower stock levels in key delivery hubs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as geopolitical tensions ease, the market will refocus on fundamental factors, with OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kazakhstan accelerating production [3][4]. - In the absence of significant demand growth, the increased supply from OPEC+ is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, with potential for Brent and WTI crude futures to break above $80 per barrel, while SC crude may exceed 580 yuan per barrel [3][4]. - The market is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation in the third and fourth quarters, with a prevailing narrative of "weak demand + oversupply" shaping oil pricing for the latter half of the year [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the possible resumption of Israeli attacks on Iran, oil prices rose again. EIA data showed that as of the week ending on the 27th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories both increased more than expected, while diesel inventories continued to decline. In the supply side, most of the 8 OPEC member countries achieved the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production. In the demand side, the expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited because of the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana. The market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental-driven, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.18% to close at $67.45 per barrel, with a trading volume of 24.54 million lots; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.04% to close at $69.15 per barrel, with a trading volume of 38.45 million lots; SC crude oil futures rose 1.56% to close at 506.3 yuan per barrel, with a trading volume of 17.94 million lots [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: OPEC member countries basically completed the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Trump's concerns about high oil prices may lead to a further increase in OPEC+ production. The expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the market will still maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year because of the expected supply growth in other countries [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia plans to increase its daily crude oil production to 1 million barrels. - Last week, US imports of crude oil from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019. - In June, the production of 12 OPEC member countries increased by 360,000 barrels per day to an average of 28 million barrels per day, with about two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, and spot prices, with data sources including CFTC, Wind, and Bloomberg [10][11][18]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Report type: Crude Oil Daily [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market performance**: WTI's opening price was $64.96, closing at $65.53, with a high of $65.98, a low of $64.67, a daily increase of 0.65%, and trading volume of 17.29 million lots; Brent's opening price was $66.58, closing at $67.28, with a high of $67.50, a low of $66.34, a daily increase of 0.81%, and trading volume of 27 million lots; SC's opening price was 503.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 498.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 503.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 495.6 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.24%, and trading volume of 13.75 million lots [6] - **Supply - demand analysis**: In the supply side, in the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned increase. There's a possibility of OPEC+ further increasing production. In the demand side, due to the suspension of China - US tariff disputes, crude oil demand expectations improved, but considering the supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [7] - **Operational suggestion**: Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental - driven, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Group 3: Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not have a significant reaction as market expectations have shifted towards this outcome [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June increased by 450,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.33 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level in over a year [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 1.88 million barrels per day, hitting a historical high. Its first - half production increased by 13% year - on - year to 1.79 million barrels per day [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts [10][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially announcing a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in August at the July 6 meeting, but the improvement in demand prospects from trade agreements partially offsets this impact. Saudi Arabia is exporting crude at the fastest pace in over a year, and the potential for continued production increases is pressuring oil prices upward. Geopolitical concerns from the Houthi attacks on Israel provide some premium. Currently, the crude oil market lacks directional events, and it is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, with prices moving between 495 - 503. Long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, which is neutral; as of June 24, the WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long, with WTI long positions increasing and Brent long positions decreasing, which is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to range between 495 - 503, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said the US may reach a trade agreement with India and is skeptical about a deal with Japan. US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up the export of rare earth minerals and magnets. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed will "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates, ignoring Trump's call for an immediate and significant rate cut. He did not rule out a rate cut at the July 29 - 30 meeting. Trump said he has two or three candidates to replace Powell. - Trump said Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza, and the plan will be submitted to Hamas. Qatar and Egypt will be responsible for presenting the final proposal [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has ongoing tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude increased by 0.37 to 67.11 (0.55% increase), WTI crude increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), SC crude increased by 0.90 to 497.0 (0.18% increase), and Oman crude decreased by 0.39 to 68.22 (- 0.57% decrease) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude have changed. UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.33 to 68.78 (0.48% increase), WTI increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), Oman crude decreased by 0.86 to 68.45 (- 1.24% decrease), Shengli crude decreased by 1.22 to 65.38 (- 1.83% decrease), and Dubai crude decreased by 0.55 to 68.32 (- 0.80% decrease) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of June 28 increased by 680,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.257 million barrels. US EIA inventory as of June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 797,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory as of June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels. As of July 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.911 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of June 24, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 232,969, an increase of 1,921. The net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 192,598, a decrease of 80,577 [15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to largely give back all war premiums and return to the fundamentals. The substantial drawdown in US API crude oil inventories indicates an optimistic performance during the summer consumption peak season. The market will focus on the supply side, as Kazakhstan has stated that it has no plan to cut production, which will test the implementation of OPEC+. In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate at a low level, with a short - term trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral as the US air strike only delayed Iran's nuclear capacity by a few months, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has taken effect, Kazakhstan has no plan to cut production, and the Fed may consider interest rate cuts due to potential inflation from tariff hikes. The basis is neutral with spot at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish, with significant draws in US API and EIA inventories. The market trend is bullish as the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions show an increase in long positions. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. 2. Recent News - On Tuesday, June 24, after a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, Israel stopped further military strikes on Iran, and Iran is ready to talk. The US air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities only set back the nuclear program by a few months. Fed Chairman Powell said that tariff hikes this summer may push up inflation, which is a key period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts, but he is not in a hurry to cut rates. The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures against the US before the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, and Germany will support tougher measures against the US [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and the medium - to - long - term market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined, with decreases of - 6.17%, - 6.04%, - 2.86%, and - 9.22% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased, with decreases of - 11.02%, - 6.04%, - 9.42%, - 8.81%, and - 8.95% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventories decreased by 427.7 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and EIA inventories decreased by 1147.3 million barrels in the week ending June 13. Cushing region inventories decreased by 99.5 million barrels in the week ending June 13. As of June 24, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of June 17, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increasing by 39,107 to 231,048, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increasing by 76,253 to 273,175 [3][17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The Sino-US trade negotiation is still progressing, and the market risk preference is positive. The new non-farm payrolls in the US in May were slightly better than expected, but the data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward, reducing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, Trump is still pressuring the Fed. In the short term, there is a slight support from the macro level. The unexpected significant decline of 19 units in the US weekly rig data has led to the expectation of a possible decline in US production, pushing up oil prices to some extent, with the possibility of breaking through the upper resistance level. Investors should pay attention to position control. The short-term price range is 470 - 480, and long-term investors can hold long positions with a light position [3]. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as the upcoming Sino-US high - level talks, US employment data, and US sanctions against Iran - related entities. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories decreased more than expected, but Cushing area inventory increased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, overall being bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, which is neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long and increasing, which is bullish [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil prices are affected by tariff negotiation news, trade uncertainty, and data on the impact of US taxation on the global economy. The fuel market is relatively strong, and the supply - surplus situation has not been reflected in inventory data. The futures market is in a state of backwardation in the near future and will turn to contango from May 2026. The potential risks of increased US sanctions on Venezuela and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure increase the upside risk of oil prices, while weakening oil demand and OPEC+ and non - OPEC production increases will add downward pressure on oil prices in the future. Saudi Arabia has lowered the crude oil price for Asia in July, and the market is expected to balance in Q2 and Q3 and have a larger surplus in Q4 2025. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined for six consecutive weeks [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the approaching breakdown of US - Iran negotiations and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months and the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies. The short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.73%, 1.91%, 0.69%, and 0.42% respectively. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also generally increased, with Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Victory, and Dubai crude oil increasing by 1.61%, 1.91%, 0.78%, 0.13%, and 0.50% respectively. API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending May 30, with API inventories decreasing by 3300000 barrels and EIA inventories decreasing by 4304000 barrels [7][9][10][15]. 5. Position Data - As of June 3, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased. The net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 2263 to 167957, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 8813 to 167763 [18][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil first rose and then fell. EIA crude oil inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, providing support for the market. However, inventory build - up in downstream gasoline and refined oil products limited the upside potential of crude oil. Saudi Aramco's price cut for its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July indicated that oil - producing countries were starting to compete for market share. With the supply side continuing to increase production, crude oil faced significant upward pressure. Geopolitical conditions deteriorated, but Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran still considered continuing negotiations, resulting in insufficient short - term bullish stimuli. Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, lowered prices for Asian crude buyers to near four - year lows, aiming to regain market share. The US May ISM services PMI was 49.9, far below the expected 52, with the new orders index dropping 5.9 points to 46.4. US - EU trade negotiations progressed rapidly, and new US metal tariffs added urgency to the talks [3]. - **Basis**: On June 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.66 per barrel. The basis was 16.78 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending May 30, exceeding the expected 0.9 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels, also exceeding the expected 1.035 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels. As of June 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of May 27, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitics**: Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's "peace conditions" were "ultimatums," but he was still willing to meet with Russian President Putin. Putin was skeptical about the possibility of a summit [5]. - **Inventory**: The US EIA reported that last week's commercial crude inventory decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 228.3 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 4.2 million barrels to 107.6 million barrels. Refinery crude processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rate rose by 3.2% to 93.4%. US crude net imports increased by 389,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels [5]. - **Price**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July to a premium of $1.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, down from $1.40 in June [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US - Iran negotiation was close to breakdown, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ increased production for three consecutive months, and the US had continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts provided upward momentum, while medium - to long - term demand was expected to pick up during the summer peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $64.86, $62.85, 467.6 yuan, and $64.74 respectively, with changes of - 0.77 (- 1.17%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 2.60 (0.56%), and 0.22 (0.34%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $66.61, $62.85, $64.98, $63.43, and $64.65 respectively, with changes of - 1.49 (- 2.19%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 0.48 (0.74%), 0.78 (1.25%), and 0.17 (0.26%) compared to the previous day [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 461.098 million barrels in the week ending May 30. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels in the same week [10][15]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of May 27, the net long position was 165,694, a decrease of 20,726 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of May 27, the net long position was 158,950, a decrease of 4,379 [21].

Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight crude oil continued to fluctuate. OPEC+ may continue to increase crude oil production in July, which will suppress the market. However, Trump's threat to Russia provides geopolitical support for oil prices. The easing of relations with the EU also restores confidence in the financial market. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate in the 450 - 460 range in the short term and hold long - term long positions lightly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot premium over the futures is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk is bearish; the main positions are bullish. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with a recommended short - term operating range of 450 - 460 and long - term long positions held lightly [6]. 2. Recent News - The UAE Energy Minister said OPEC+ is working to balance the oil market but needs to be vigilant about demand growth challenges. The alliance will hold meetings to decide on the July production increase policy. The Iran nuclear negotiation has made breakthrough progress, and the market expects Iranian crude oil production to impact the market after sanctions are lifted. - Trump criticized Putin for refusing a cease - fire negotiation, and his frustration with Russia increased. - Trump said his threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU was successful, and the EU - US trade situation has eased [7]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to Rise**: The US threatens sanctions on Iran; Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks; there are signs of easing in the trade war. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; OPEC+ continues to increase production. - **Market Drivers**: The resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid supply increases. - **Risk Points**: The breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity; the escalation of war risks [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude decreased by 0.55 to 63.57 (a decrease of 0.86%); WTI crude decreased by 0.59 to 60.89 (a decrease of 0.96%); SC crude increased by 1.00 to 457.4 (an increase of 0.22%); Oman crude increased by 0.55 to 63.81 (an increase of 0.87%) [9]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc. have changed, with different increases and decreases [10]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory increased by 249.9 million barrels in the week ending May 16, contrary to the expected decrease. EIA inventory increased by 132.8 million barrels in the same period, also contrary to the expected decrease. Cushing area inventory decreased by 45.7 million barrels in the week ending May 16. As of May 27, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [6]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net Long Positions**: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [18]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net Long Positions**: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [21].