Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 92, 2025) [1] Report Release Date - June 3, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Fluctuation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EUA is more correlated with TTF as it returns to the energy fundamentals [2] Market Conditions Auction - On June 2, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.58 euros/ton (0.06%), the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.5, and the auction revenue was 229.07 million euros [2][4] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price was 70.91 euros/ton (0.71%), with a trading volume of 26,300 lots (0.66) [2] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Expected to fluctuate within the range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - Weaker renewable energy generation and rising electricity demand in Western Europe are expected to push up the residual load [2] Bearish Factors - The US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, pressuring the European market; The June option expiration date is approaching, with the largest open interest of put options at €65 and call options concentrated at €80 [2] Other Factors - The US draft requires Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities, and Iran rejected the US proposal on its nuclear program; Russia proposed a short and limited ceasefire and agreed to exchange prisoners with Ukraine [2][3] Data Charts - There are 6 charts showing EUA auction price, bid coverage ratio, futures and spot market information, price and basis, and December contract positions [4][5]

Core Insights - In April 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 216 million green certificates, representing a month-on-month increase of 23.94% [1] - The issued green certificates are linked to 104,300 renewable energy generation projects [1] - Of the total green certificates issued, 165 million are tradable, accounting for 76.36% of the total [1] Summary by Category Green Certificate Issuance - A total of 878 million green certificates were issued from January to April 2025, with 621 million being tradable [1] - In March 2025, 191 million green certificates were issued corresponding to renewable energy generation [1] Trading Activity - In April, 59.4 million green certificates were traded nationwide, including 27.39 million green electricity trading certificates [1] - From January to April 2025, a total of 259 million green certificates were traded, with 87.83 million being green electricity trading certificates [1] Pricing Information - In April, the average trading price of green certificates was 2.31 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 63.24% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.14 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.82% to 1.977 billion yuan [1][4] - The company has expanded its installed capacity, with an additional 36.25 MW added in Q1, bringing the total installed capacity to 41.1 GW, which includes 30.4 GW from wind power and 10.7 GW from solar power [2] - Wind power generation saw a slight increase, while solar power generation experienced significant growth, with wind power generation at 17.776 billion kWh (up 4.37%) and solar power generation at 2.509 billion kWh (up 55.65%) [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 8.14 billion yuan, with wind power revenue at 7.368 billion yuan (down 1.89%) and solar power revenue at 715 million yuan (up 43.09%) [4] - Operating expenses increased by 14.13% to 4.81 billion yuan, primarily due to increased depreciation and amortization from new energy installations [4] Installed Capacity and Projects - The company plans to start new renewable energy projects totaling 5.5 GW in 2025, with 5 GW expected to be operational [2] - The total installed capacity as of March 2025 is 41.1 GW, with a breakdown of 30.4 GW from wind, 10.7 GW from solar, and 0.006 GW from other renewable sources [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.5, 6.1, and 5.8 [5]

Core Points - A rare nationwide blackout occurred in Spain and Portugal on April 28, affecting transportation, communication, and healthcare systems, with millions impacted and economic losses estimated in billions of euros [2][3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The blackout began at approximately 12:33 PM local time, with around 15 gigawatts of power generation capacity lost in just 5 seconds, equating to 60% of the national power demand at that time [3] - The blackout led to the shutdown of airports, railways, and subways, stranding thousands of passengers and disrupting daily life for approximately 60 million people [3][4] - Recovery of power supply took several hours, with the system only returning to normal by April 29 [3] Group 2: Causes and Theories - The blackout was attributed to an electrical frequency imbalance in the Iberian Peninsula's power grid, triggering a "self-protective blackout" [4] - Various theories regarding the cause of the power imbalance include a fire damaging a high-voltage line in France, which was later denied by French authorities [5] - Cyberattack suspicions were raised, but initial investigations found no evidence, although the Spanish government has not ruled out this possibility [6] - Another theory suggested extreme temperature fluctuations causing unusual oscillations in high-voltage lines, but this was also dismissed by meteorological authorities [6] - The reliance on renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, was highlighted as a potential factor, as wind generation was low prior to the blackout [7] - Some analysts argue that the nature and scale of the blackout are unlikely to be solely due to renewable energy issues, suggesting a combination of factors may have contributed [7][8]