Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 11, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11700 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2880 yuan/ton and a basis of -85 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.5%; semi-steel tire production was 56.97 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, but a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; full-steel tire production was 12.75 million units, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - As of August 7, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 69.8%, a decrease of 0.3%; high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 68.2%, a decrease of 5.9%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 69.7%, a decrease of 0.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 60.1%, an increase of 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, butadiene port inventory was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; traders' inventory was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on August 11, Qixiang Tengda's 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since August 1 and is expected to restart soon; China National Petroleum Corporation's Jilin Petrochemical Company is currently in the commissioning phase of its 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit [4] Market Analysis - On August 11, commodity prices rose, with natural rubber strengthening, boosting BR prices. The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the previous day's settlement price. On the cost side, the Maoming Petrochemical butadiene unit is restarting, and Fushun Petrochemical plans maintenance, while Jilin Petrochemical is in the commissioning phase, indicating a potentially ample domestic supply. Additionally, port inventories remain relatively low, with expected concentrated imports arriving in late August, limiting the downside for butadiene in the short term. Supply-side dynamics show a mix of unit restarts and maintenance, with a slight expected increase in styrene-butadiene rubber supply and limited inventory depletion. Demand-side pressures persist, particularly for semi-steel tires, which maintain high inventory levels, complicating production rate increases. Overall, while the cost side has limited downside, the supply-demand balance for BR remains loose, suggesting a wide fluctuation in prices [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 in the short - term [8] - This week, the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong market stopped falling and consolidated, with a range of 1,1300 - 1,1800 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton [9] - In the near future, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. There are differences in the negotiation focus between spot traders and downstream. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Next week, the supply is expected to change little, the inventory of producers is expected to decline slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase [9] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly, and in the short - term, it may be mainly adjusted slightly with limited overall fluctuation [9] Group 2: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.52% [13] - As of August 8th, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [20] - As of August 8th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared with last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - As of August 7th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] - As of August 7th, the basis of butadiene rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of August 7th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 571 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.88 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, the same as last week [31] - As of August 8th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.76%, a decrease of 0.21% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared with last week [35] Group 5: Industry Situation - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month. As of August 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 4.29% compared with last week [39] - As of August 7th, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton compared with last week [42] - As of August 7th, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,440 tons, an increase of 120 tons compared with last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons compared with last week [46] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [49] - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% month - on - month and 7.31% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,121,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1500 to 1,2300 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has weakened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber is under pressure due to shipment pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin next week, the domestic supply increase will gradually appear, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will increase. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly this week, but the overall shipment performance was lower than expected at the end of the month, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises will decline in the short term [6]. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1800 - 1,2800 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber was raised by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply side has weakened. After the restart of some enterprises next week, the supply will increase, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will rise. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may decline in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1800 and 1,2800 in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 6.16% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 25, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 25, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,390 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared with last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,2100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3. Industry Conditions Upstream - **External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of July 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of July 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04% compared with last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared with last week [30]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons compared with last month. As of July 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42% compared with last week [34]. - **Production Profit**: As of July 24, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,320 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with last week. The inventory of manufacturers was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons compared with last week [40]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, the cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [46]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant content found

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Raw material butadiene price support for butadiene rubber has weakened, and domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - late July. Downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices, which may lead to higher inventory of production enterprises. The tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has recovered, and the orders in the middle and late stages are expected to increase slightly, with the overall short - term start - up rate expected to have little fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,250 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,995 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the position of the main contract is 14,993, down 2,221; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The butadiene production capacity is 147,700 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 67.96%, down 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, down 3,600 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, down 0.33 percentage points; the production profit is - 632 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The production of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces this month, up 800,000 pieces; the production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces this month, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2] Industry News - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points month - on - month and down 11.96 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.92 percentage points year - on - year. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,350 - 11,900 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated upwards. The spot price ranged from 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The futures sentiment was bullish, and the transaction center of the spot market moved up. Sinopec and PetroChina raised the ex - factory prices by 100 - 300 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber is weakening. Supply is expected to increase as most maintenance devices restart in mid - and late - July. The inventory of producers may rise due to downstream price - pressing. The tire industry's production is stabilizing, and the short - term opening rate is expected to have little change [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,350 - 11,900 [7]. - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose. The ex - factory prices of major companies were raised. The mainstream ex - factory price was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton as of July 17 [8]. - Market outlook: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is price - pressing. The tire industry's production is stabilizing [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 0.95% this week [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of July 18, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was 25 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of July 18, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 17, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of July 17, the basis of butadiene rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 17, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 574.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene: As of July 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week; the port inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from last month. As of July 17, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.21%, a decrease of 0.32% from last week [38]. - Production profit: As of July 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - Inventory: As of July 18, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,650 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,600 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire opening rate: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [47]. - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [50]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied last week. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after early - month maintenance boosted the overall capacity utilization rate, while the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises dragged down its capacity utilization rate. This week, the capacity utilization rate still has room for improvement, which will drive the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,525 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 20,703 lots, down 2,036 lots. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, down 0.46 yuan/ton. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong was down. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, and CFR Japan naphtha changed, with Brent down 0.5 dollars/barrel, WTI unchanged, Northeast Asian ethylene unchanged, and CFR Japan naphtha down 13.25 dollars/ton. The CFR China butadiene price was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons, unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons. The manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons, and the trader's inventory was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,800 tons, down 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber spot price showed a weak consolidation. The ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and that of PetroChina's sales companies decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the low - price transactions at the raw material butadiene end have gradually improved. Affected by the news of a fault in an upstream device in East China, some rigid - demand purchases have followed up with price pressure. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. The cost factor supports the current butadiene rubber price, but downstream purchases remain cautious, and the resistance to shipment may increase. It is expected that the short - term inventory level may increase slightly [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedule of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises this week. An individual all - steel tire enterprise was under maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. Next week, the production schedule of the maintenance enterprises will return to the normal level, and the capacity utilization rate still has room for recovery, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The short - term forecast for the br2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 11,200 - 11,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic cis - butadiene rubber spot price was weakly consolidated. The ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina decreased by 300 yuan/ton. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Cost supports the price, but downstream purchases are cautious, and shipment resistance may increase. Short - term inventory may rise slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has room for recovery [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 11,700 [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 3.44% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content about position analysis results is provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 11, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was 30 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week [21]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of July 10, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 290 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of July 10, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 591 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.25 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of July 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, a decrease of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,330 tons from last week [33]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 10, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, a decrease of 1.5% from last week [37]. - **Production Profit**: As of July 10, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,770 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons from last week [43]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [47]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3,404,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1,335,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1,927,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [50].

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The short-term price of the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 and 11,500 [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber was weakly consolidating, with the Shandong market spot price fluctuating between 11,200 and 11,700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of high-cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies were stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 and 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Affected by the weak raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, industry players are cautiously waiting and watching. Driven by the high inventory reduction of individual production enterprises, the overall inventory of domestic butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly this week. However, the shipment pressure of downstream enterprises remains high, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased week-on-week this week. Some semi-steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, significantly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises maintained stable production schedules, and individual enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 5 days, resulting in a slight decline in capacity utilization rate. Next week, as enterprise maintenance gradually ends and production resumes, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed flat, with a weekly change of +0% [12] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Inter - month spread: As of July 4, the spread between the 8th and 9th contracts of butadiene rubber was 75 [19] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 4, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 700 tons, unchanged from last week [22] Group 3: Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 3, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of July 3, the basis of butadiene rubber was 315 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 3, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 577.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.26 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of July 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, an increase of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 3, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.98%, an increase of 0.18% from last week [36] - Production profit: As of July 3, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 414 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Inventory: As of July 4, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 870 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - Tire capacity utilization: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [45] - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [48]

Overview - The report is a weekly report on the synthetic rubber market, covering aspects such as market trends, industrial conditions, and downstream demand [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of domestic butadiene rubber futures rebounded, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber from mainstream sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton. As of June 12, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton [7] - The supply of raw material butadiene is relatively sufficient, and the cost support for butadiene rubber production has weakened. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers have carried out maintenance and shutdowns. Some traders have placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors has led to difficulties in shipping. The inventory of producers has slightly decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has increased [7] - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously shut - down enterprises have gradually returned to normal levels. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased on a week - on - week basis. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the short term [7] - The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: The price of domestic butadiene rubber futures rebounded, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton [7] - **Market Outlook**: Raw material supply is sufficient, cost support weakens. Producer inventory decreases slightly, trader inventory increases. Tire enterprise capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,700 - 11,300 [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.49% [11] - **Spread**: As of June 13, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 180 [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 5,170 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from last week [21] Spot Market - **Price**: As of June 12, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [26] - **Basis**: As of June 12, the basis of butadiene rubber was 515 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industrial Conditions Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of June 12, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 27.2 dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 790 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton from last week [29] - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: As of June 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, an increase of 0.96% from last week; the port inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [32] Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons from the previous month. As of June 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 65.03%, a decrease of 2.22% from last week [36] - **Production Profit**: As of June 12, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 576 yuan/ton, an increase of 306 yuan/ton from last week [39] - **Inventory**: As of June 13, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 27,650 tons, a decrease of 650 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,210 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week [43] Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [46] - **Tire Exports**: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, the cumulative tire exports were 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [49]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of June 5, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1150 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11400 CNY/ton, unchanged [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2100 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY [1] - The basis is 440 CNY/ton, an increase of 135 CNY [1] Production and Operating Rates - In May, China's butadiene production was 448,900 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 143,300 tons, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 54.15 million units, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% for January to May [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 11.82 million units, a decrease of 9.6% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% for January to May [2] - As of June 5, the operating rates for the butadiene industry is 68%, a decrease of 1.8% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.1%, a decrease of 8.8% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 64.1%, a decrease of 11.7% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers is 55.7%, a decrease of 8.5% [2] Inventory - As of June 4, the port inventory of butadiene is 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.71% [3] - The inventory of traders is 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.69% [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on June 5, the total inventory of butadiene in the domestic sample decreased slightly, down 1.66% from the previous week [4] - The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 2.07% from the previous week, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance, keeping inventory low [4] - However, there are increases in inventory at some enterprises in East and South China, affecting the overall inventory of sample enterprises [4] - The port inventory of samples decreased by 5.26%, influenced by limited ship arrivals [4] Analysis - On June 5, the rubber sector followed commodity fluctuations, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2507 closing at 10,960 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous settlement price [5] - In early June, domestic butadiene maintenance volumes remain high, but supply is expected to recover in the latter half of the month [5] - Overall production in June is unlikely to increase significantly, with short-term butadiene transactions being poor [5] - The tariff issue on automobiles and auto parts remains unresolved, posing challenges for Japanese and Korean automotive and tire manufacturing, which may lead to a decline in butadiene demand [5] - With the gradual recovery of Asian ethylene maintenance facilities and the expected arrival of Iranian butadiene in mid-June, China's butadiene import volume is anticipated to be substantial [5] - The supply-demand balance for butadiene in June is expected to be loose, with significant supply declines in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry, but still showing year-on-year growth [5] - The tire order situation is not optimistic, with high inventory levels dragging down tire operating rates [5]