对2026年的经济工作，会议提出"五个必须"，排在首位的就是必须充分挖掘经济潜能，对应着潜在需求 向现实需求转化。住房供求关系发生重大变化的形势下，住房需求潜力转向租赁和买卖、刚需和改善、 二手房和新房之间良性循环的多层次住房消费。目前，热点城市租赁交易单远比买卖交易单大，15个省 份二手住房交易超过新房，30个重点城市二手房交易占比近70%。 李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 中央经济工作会议强调，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品 房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新 模式。 稳楼市仍是2026年房地产管理的重点。客观而言，前期楼市纾困力度大，且政策未间断，但各地对楼市 供求平衡考虑不足。目前，考虑到新房在售、在建和二手房挂牌量，部分城市库存去化周期较长。同 时，近年来各地都在打造高品质项目，以供给优化来提振需求，但一些地方仍存在规模化发展、同质化 现象，新房去化压力显现。因此，2026年供给管控思路突出，比如"好房子"也要有序推动。 同时，随着人口和就业空间分化，住房需求多样化、多层次，城市不同区域需求潜 ...

中央经济工作会议后，2026 年地产怎么看？20251214 摘要 2025 年中央经济工作会议强调"着力稳定房地产市场"，表明 2024 年"止跌回稳"目标未完全实现，政策重心转向长期稳定，预计未来将 继续因城施策，通过控制增量、去库存、优化供给等手段稳定市场。 未来政策可能包括鼓励收购存量商品房用于保障性住房，进一步放松限 购、限贷等限制性措施，并灵活运用降准降息等工具降低房贷利率或通 过房贷贴息降低购房成本，以刺激需求。 城市更新方面，2025 年强调高质量推进，注重提升居住品质，将旧城 区改造为更具吸引力的新社区。公积金制度改革将扩大覆盖范围至灵活 就业人员，放宽使用条件至装修等用途，并提高跨城跨省联动便捷度。 房贷贴息政策虽未明确提及，但仍是潜在选项，具体执行细则将逐步出 台。长春市的案例表明，1%-2%的贴息在短期内对成交量有帮助，但难 以完全阻止价格下跌，未来政策力度和持续时间至关重要。 香港房地产市场正持续修复，10 月份私人住宅价格环比和同比均上涨， 中原城市领先指数显示 11 月份香港住宅价格环比增长近 2%。但新房和 二手房成交量同比下降，累计成交量同比增长约 17%。 Q&A 近期中央 ...

中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院高级研究员秦虹认为，表现较好的热点城市具有基本面坚实、政策 协同发力等共同特点。需求端，通过优化限购、降低首付比例等方式，降低居民购房门槛和成本；供给 端，注重优化土地供应结构，鼓励企业打造适配需求的产品。 秦虹认为，热点城市的实践表明，增加"好房子"供给是激活市场、稳定预期的关键，特别是在品质提 升、配套完善、服务优化方面要满足市场期待。 今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项支持性政策，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产 市场止跌回稳。受访专家表示，在房地产市场调整转型的关键阶段，市场格局呈现分化特征。 ——二手房对新房的替代作用增强。随着住房发展进入新阶段，新房销售规模下降、二手房交易占据主 导将成为房地产市场的常态。1—11月，全国二手房交易网签面积在交易总量中的占比为45%。 重庆大学副校长刘贵文认为，传统以新房销售为主的增量交易格局正走向新房和二手房并举的格局，并 进一步走向以二手房交易为主的成熟市场格局。 国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院研究员刘琳认为，当前房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化，今年以来市 场新增供给减少，这既是各地落实严控增量的正向反馈，也是市场自发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market through city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply quality [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a significant transformation, with a notable increase in the role of second-hand housing as new housing sales decline. From January to November, second-hand housing transactions accounted for 45% of total transaction volume [1] - Experts indicate that the traditional model of new housing sales is shifting towards a balanced market where both new and second-hand housing coexist, with a potential dominance of second-hand transactions in the future [1] Group 2: Policy and Demand - Various regions have accelerated the implementation of supportive policies to stimulate both rigid and improved housing demand, contributing to a stabilization of the real estate market [1] - In key cities, new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shown year-on-year growth from January to November, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] Group 3: Housing Supply and Rental Market - The rental market is increasingly substituting part of the home-buying demand, driven by the rapid development of housing rental markets and the implementation of "rent and purchase rights" policies [2] - There is a growing demand for public rental housing among those facing housing difficulties, highlighting the need for effective supply solutions to address this issue [2] Group 4: Risk Management and Market Confidence - Recent progress in debt resolution for real estate companies is contributing to the gradual clearing of industry risks, with large developers increasing land acquisitions in key cities [2] - The "white list" funding support for qualifying projects is part of the ongoing efforts to ensure housing delivery, which is helping to restore market confidence [2]

新房景气度下行趋缓，二手房景气度底部企稳，成交量均出现小幅回落。政策方面，经济工作会议再提"去库存"，重 点是"因城施策"，一线城市重心是"优供给"，三四线城市侧重于"控增量"、"去库存"。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周(12.6-12.12)景气度下行趋缓，新房销售面积小幅回落，47 城新房成交量环比-9.8%，同比-44.9%， 主要受季节性因素影响，降幅较上周走阔。 图表1：新房成交面积保持稳定 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1W 2W 3W 4W 5W 6W 7W 8W 9W 10W 11W 12W 13W 14W 15W 16W 17W 18W 19W 20W 21W 22W 23W 24W 25W 26W 27W 28W 29W 30W 31W 32W 33W 34W 35W 36W 37W 38W 39W 40W 41W 42W 43W 44W 45W 46W 47W 48W 49W 50W 51W 52W 47城新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on "stabilizing the real estate market" by the central government signals a significant shift in policy direction, moving from emergency measures to a long-term recovery plan for the real estate sector [1][3]. Policy Shift - The focus has shifted from "rescue" and "risk prevention" to "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating a more strategic approach to managing the real estate market [3]. - "Controlling increments" means stricter regulations on new construction, especially in areas with excess housing supply [3]. - The new approach encourages the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, effectively addressing unsold inventory while increasing the supply of social housing [3]. - The emphasis on "optimizing supply" suggests a future focus on building quality housing that meets actual demand [3]. Market Conditions - The most dangerous phase for the real estate market has passed, with over 5.6 trillion yuan in funding provided to reliable developers, helping to stabilize the market [5]. - Market differentiation is emerging, with some cities showing signs of recovery while others remain stagnant [5]. Implications for Buyers - Current conditions present a "policy dividend window," where the cost of purchasing a home is at historical lows, with mortgage rates for first-time buyers dropping to the 3% range [7]. - Various incentives, such as subsidies for multi-child families and tax reductions for home purchases, are available to ease financial burdens [8]. - Buyers are advised to prioritize safety and liquidity when purchasing homes, focusing on properties from developers on the "white list" and those with strong resale potential [8]. Recommendations for Sellers - Sellers should consider offloading properties in third- and fourth-tier cities with weak local economies, as these areas face declining prices and high inventory [11]. - Properties that are old, small, or located in less desirable areas should also be considered for sale, as they may struggle to attract buyers [13]. - It is recommended to retain primary residences and high-quality properties in core urban areas, as these assets are likely to maintain their value over time [13][15]. Market Dynamics - The future market will likely see 90% of ordinary properties stagnating or declining in value, while only 10% of high-quality properties will retain their worth [15]. - Decision-making should be tailored to specific cities, neighborhoods, and individual properties, moving away from a one-size-fits-all mentality [16].

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced a significant rise, with Shimao Group, Ronshine China, and Vanke Enterprises increasing by over 5%, while Sunac China rose by 4.5% [1] - Other notable increases included Greentown China, Agile Group, Jinhui Holdings, and Country Garden, all rising by over 3%, and CIFI Holdings, China Jinmao, Longfor Group, and New City Development increasing by over 2% [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 to 11 in Beijing emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply [1] - The conference also highlighted the importance of reforming the housing provident fund system and promoting the construction of quality housing [1] - Measures to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks were discussed, including urging local governments to proactively manage debt and preventing the illegal addition of hidden debts [1]

住房，是民生之要。"十五五"规划建议提出，因城施策增加改善性住房供给。这一重要部署，是适应房 地产发展新阶段、推动行业迈向高质量发展的重要举措。 当前，我国房地产市场供求关系已发生重大变化。一方面，住房供给从总量短缺转为总量基本平衡、结 构性供给不足；另一方面，住房需求从"有没有"转向"好不好"，人民群众对改善居住条件有了更多新期 待。 2025年1月15日，江西省宜春市铜鼓县永宁镇城南社区文昌苑安置小区居民搬入新居。新华社发（周亮 摄） "十五五"开局在即，进一步实现百姓"安居梦"，精准施策成为关键。 未来的房子，既要建得好，也要改得巧。新房子要建成安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的"好房子"；老房子要 通过改造，变身宜居家园。随着《住宅项目规范》国家标准的全面实施，"好房子"建设将有标可循，多 元化的改善性住房供给将更好满足不同群体的安居梦想。 从需求端，各地推出系列政策"组合拳"。从优化"认房不认贷"政策，到推出多孩家庭、人才购房补贴； 从优化公积金贷款额度与使用范围、推出"以旧换新"模式，到联动房企、中介机构搭建交易平台，解决 部分老旧小区业主"卖旧难、换房贵"的痛点……灵活多样的政策"工具箱"不断释放改善性住 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with second-hand housing transactions becoming dominant due to various policy adjustments and incentives [1][2][3] Policy Adjustments - Various cities have implemented measures such as purchasing subsidies, housing consumption vouchers, and optimized land supply to support the real estate market [1][2] - Over 60 cities have introduced policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, including adjustments to housing credit policies [2][3] Market Trends - From January to October, the transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand houses accounting for 44.8% of total transactions [1] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has remained stable, indicating the effectiveness of local policies [2] Land Supply - Cities are controlling new land supply while optimizing existing land use, with examples including Shenzhen and Hangzhou focusing on quality residential land [3] - Cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan have seen significant year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transactions [3] Shift in Market Dynamics - The real estate market is transitioning from a focus on new housing to second-hand housing as urbanization stabilizes [3] - The demand for second-hand housing is driven by young people and new residents, who prefer properties that are well-located and ready for immediate occupancy [3][4]

Core Insights - The trading structure of new and second-hand houses has changed, with second-hand houses increasingly replacing new houses as the market enters a stock era [1] - From January to October, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating stable overall market demand despite a high base from the previous year [3] - Various policies aimed at stabilizing the market are gradually showing positive effects, contributing to a stable total transaction volume compared to last year [5] Group 1 - The transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand houses accounting for 45% of the total transaction volume [7] - In several cities, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chongqing, the transaction area of second-hand houses has seen a year-on-year growth of over 10% [7] - There is a continuous release of housing demand, particularly for improvement needs, supported by policies such as increased housing provident fund loan limits and purchase subsidies [9]