Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant rebound, moving away from a prolonged downturn and entering a phase of steady recovery [1][4]. Market Recovery - In Q2 2025, new residential prices in 70 major cities rose by 3.7% month-on-month, with first-tier cities seeing a 5.2% increase and second-tier cities 4.6% [2]. - The total sales area of commercial housing in the first half of 2025 reached 728 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, while sales revenue hit 7.53 trillion yuan, up 18.2% [4]. Policy Impact - The market turnaround is attributed to a series of effective policy adjustments, including reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage rates, particularly in first-tier cities where rates have fallen below 4% [5][8]. - The "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy introduced at the end of 2024 marked a significant shift in real estate policy [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The urbanization rate in China reached 67.3% in 2024 and is expected to exceed 68% in 2025, indicating a stable demand for housing as approximately 12 million people migrate to cities annually [8]. - The new housing supply has significantly decreased due to strict regulations over the past three years, with new construction area dropping by 38.6% from its peak in 2021 [8]. Regional Disparities - The recovery is characterized by notable regional differences, with first and second-tier cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai experiencing price increases exceeding 8% year-on-year [9]. - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities are lagging in recovery, facing inventory pressures due to population outflows [11]. Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 43.7% of respondents in Q2 2025 are considering purchasing investment properties, a significant increase of 18.6 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - Funds that previously flowed into stock markets are returning to real estate, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [11]. Fiscal Health - Land sales revenue in the first half of 2025 reached 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, marking the first significant growth since 2021 [11]. Macroeconomic Context - The real estate sector contributes approximately 25% to GDP and over 15% to employment, underscoring its critical role in stabilizing the economy amid downward pressures [12]. Future Outlook - Experts predict a more rational market moving forward, with housing price growth aligning with income growth, and speculative demand being curtailed [12]. - The forecast for 2025 suggests a potential price increase of 6%, with a more moderate growth rate of around 5% in 2026 [12]. Market Characteristics - The current market is marked by increased regional differentiation, scarcity of quality assets, and a return to the fundamental purpose of housing [14]. - Investors are advised to focus on location, quality, and amenities, as the market matures and the importance of informed decision-making grows [14].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's new real estate policy, effective from August 8, allows unlimited purchases of commodity housing outside the Fifth Ring Road, while still maintaining certain qualification requirements for buyers [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy primarily focuses on the area outside the Fifth Ring Road, where a significant portion of the housing inventory is located. Current statistics show that 81.4% of new residential inventory and about 50% of second-hand homes are situated outside this area [3]. - The policy aims to accelerate the market absorption in the Fifth Ring Road area by allowing more families with the ability and willingness to buy homes to enter the market, thereby optimizing inventory structure [3][5]. Group 2: Housing Fund Support - The policy includes measures to enhance housing fund loan support, broadening the definition of first-time homebuyers. Individuals without housing in the city or those who have previously used their housing fund loans can now qualify for first-time homebuyer benefits [5]. - The maximum loan amount for second homes has been increased to 1 million yuan, with a minimum down payment ratio of 30%. Additionally, for every year of housing fund contributions, the loan limit increases by 15,000 yuan [5]. Group 3: Market Impact - The new policy is expected to attract more buyers to the Fifth Ring Road area, leading to an increase in project construction and the availability of second-hand homes in the market [3][7]. - The adjustments are anticipated to alleviate inventory pressure, stimulate economic activity, facilitate population dispersal, and promote regional collaboration, contributing to the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and sustainable urban growth [7].

购买五环外商品住房不限套数，是此次调整最受关注的一项政策。《通知》明确，符合本市商品住房购 买条件的居民家庭（包括本市户籍居民家庭、在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税达到相关年限的非 本市户籍居民家庭），在五环外购买商品住房（含新建商品住房和二手住房）不限套数。五环外不再限 制购房套数，不是解除限购，仍需满足一定条件。 北京房地产市场政策一直被视为一线城市乃至全国房地产市场政策的风向标。8月8日，北京市有关部门 发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），备受关注。此次政策 调整目的在于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，更好满足居民改善性住房需求，有效发挥市场机制作用， 坚持首都城市战略定位，落实好城市总体规划。 北京楼市新政体现房地产市场调控因城施策、因区域施策。房地产限购政策在房地产市场过热、房价过 快上涨阶段起到了抑制投机需求、稳定房价、促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的作用。当前房地产市场供 求关系已发生变化。在北京，无论是新房还是二手房，五环外库存量占比较高。中原地产研究院统计显 示，当前北京新建商品房住宅库存81.4%在五环外，二手房约50%在五环外。从销售情况看，中指研究 院数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustment in Beijing's real estate market aims to promote stable and healthy development while better meeting residents' housing improvement needs and effectively utilizing market mechanisms [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The most notable change allows residents to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, provided they meet certain conditions [1][2] - The policy reflects a targeted approach to real estate regulation, differentiating between areas inside and outside the Fifth Ring Road to facilitate market entry for capable and willing families [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current statistics indicate that 81.4% of new residential properties and approximately 50% of second-hand homes are located outside the Fifth Ring Road, highlighting the need for policy adjustments in this area [2] - In the first seven months of this year, over 80% of new residential sales and more than 50% of second-hand home transactions occurred outside the Fifth Ring Road, indicating a shift in market activity [2] Group 3: Financial Support Measures - The new policy includes increased support for housing provident fund loans, broadening the definition of first-time homebuyers and raising the maximum loan limit for second homes to 1 million yuan [3] - The policy allows for a lower down payment for families previously classified as second-home buyers, effectively reducing the barriers to homeownership [3] Group 4: Expected Outcomes - The adjustments are expected to alleviate inventory pressure, stimulate economic growth, relieve population density in central areas, and promote regional collaboration [3]

政策出台不到一周，北京市五环外多个楼盘迎来看房高峰。业内人士分析，此次政策调整有利于提振市 场预期，进一步推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 今年以来，随着国家和地方层面的各项政策加快落实，各线城市房地产市场出现积极变化。上半年，全 国新房和二手房交易总量同比增长，房地产市场总体保持稳定态势。 各地政策持续显效 8月8日，北京市宣布，符合条件的家庭在北京市五环外不再限制购房套数，并从四方面加大住房公积金 支持力度，包括优化首套房认定标准、提高二套房贷款额度、降低二套房贷款首付比例、提高年度缴存 公积金可贷额度等，降低购房者置业成本和购房门槛。 北京放开五环外住房限购，从四个方面调整住房公积金政策；多地出台举措激活住房消费潜力，大力推 进"好房子"建设；部分城市扩大住房公积金使用范围，支持购房者使用公积金账户支付购房首付款…… 近期，政策利好不断，房地产市场活跃度有所提升，出现一系列积极变化。 巩固市场稳定态势 如何进一步提升稳楼市政策的精准性？ 一线城市中，深圳市上半年二手房市场月均成交量超过5000套，整体保持较好运行状态；广州市二手住 宅网签套数和面积同比分别增长12.98%和13.31%。部分重点二线城市如杭州、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent optimization of housing purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing signals a potential trend for other cities to follow, indicating a shift in real estate policies across China [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Beijing's recent notification allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, while maintaining existing restrictions for properties within the Fifth Ring Road [2][4]. - Guangzhou has already lifted its purchase restrictions, leading to a notable increase in the real estate market activity, with a 9.03% increase in second-hand residential transactions from January to July 2025 [2]. - Shanghai and Shenzhen have also made adjustments to their purchase restrictions, with Shanghai easing requirements for non-local residents and Shenzhen maintaining certain conditions for non-local buyers [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustments in Beijing's policies are expected to stimulate the market, particularly in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, which accounted for over 80% of new residential sales in the first half of the year [4][5]. - The easing of restrictions is anticipated to alleviate inventory pressure in high-stock areas, supporting the overall market recovery and aligning with population distribution strategies [5]. - Analysts predict that the differentiated strategy of strict controls in core areas while relaxing restrictions in suburban regions will cater to genuine housing needs and help balance supply and demand in the real estate market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing aims to stimulate demand and support the real estate market by allowing eligible families to purchase unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road starting from August 9, 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows eligible families (Beijing residents and non-residents with two years of social insurance or tax payments) to buy unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, while restrictions within the Fifth Ring remain unchanged [2][7]. - The housing provident fund loan policy has been optimized, including a relaxed definition of first-time homebuyers and a unified down payment ratio of 30% for second homes [4][9]. Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustment is expected to alleviate inventory pressure in high-stock areas, with a projected 33% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions outside the Fifth Ring following the policy change [4]. - Approximately 80% of new housing projects are anticipated to benefit from the new policy, particularly those aimed at improving living conditions [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The adjustments in Beijing's housing policies may serve as a model for other cities like Shanghai, which could further relax restrictions, promoting a differentiated strategy of strict controls in core areas while loosening regulations in suburban regions [5]. - This approach aims to balance the need to curb speculation while meeting genuine housing demands, thereby supporting economic recovery and regional development goals [5].

今年二季度以来，房地产市场热度明显上升。部分城市房价上涨较快，个别城市房地产市场出现了过热 苗头。 对此，党中央、国务院召开会议，反复强调"房住不炒"定位。多地立即出台房地产市场调控措施，意在 促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。 房地产调控须保持定力 日前，国家统计局城市司首席统计师孔鹏介绍，各地深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持房子 是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位，不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段，着力稳地价、稳房价、稳预 期，因城施策、一城一策，及时科学精准调控，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。当前，70个大中城市房 地产市场价格总体保持了平稳。 今年二季度以来，房地产市场热度明显上升，个别城市房地产市场甚至出现了过热苗头。对此，中央有 关会议多次重申，坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位。7月份以来，深圳、杭州、郑州、东莞、 南京、宁波、长春、海口等10多个城市纷纷出台调控政策，为楼市降温。 房地产市场过快上涨始终需要警惕。不过，也要看到房地产是影响宏观经济稳定和防范风险的重要因 素。"大起"需要警惕，"大落"同样也要避免。 坚持"三稳"，不能将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段。一旦把房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段 ...

本报记者 陈潇 7月31日，中指研究院发布的《2025年1—7月中国房地产企业销售业绩排行榜》显示，2025年前7个月， TOP100房企（以全口径销售额排名，下同）累计实现销售总额20730.1亿元，同比下降13.3%。单月来 看，7月份销售额同比降幅达18.2%。 中指研究院企业研究总监刘水对《证券日报》记者表示，短期来看，房地产市场仍处于波动调整过程 中，城市分化行情仍将延续，"好城市+好房子"具备结构性机会。 "随着近期多地楼市新政的推出，以及'因城施策'政策工具持续丰富，房地产市场有望保持韧性。"严跃 进表示，"对于房企而言，下半年将是比拼产品力与运营效率的关键时期，聚焦核心城市与优质项目， 有望在'金九银十'中抢占先机。" 通过销售面积与销售额的对比，不难发现部分企业正在主动聚焦高端项目，带动整体单价上移。例如， 绿城中国前7个月销售面积629万平方米、金额1368亿元，平均单价超过2万元/平方米，中海地产、华润 置地有限公司的平均单价也在2万元至3万元/平方米之间。 "头部房企通过精准拿地，加速布局改善需求市场，有望形成较好的利润空间。"上海易居房地产研究院 副院长严跃进对《证券日报》记者表示： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]