Core Viewpoint - The competition in the Chinese food delivery market is intensifying, with major players like Ele.me, JD.com, and Meituan ramping up their efforts through substantial subsidies and support for delivery personnel [1][3][4]. Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Ele.me has launched a subsidy program exceeding 10 billion yuan to attract users [1]. - JD.com has initiated a series of measures including zero commission for new merchants, social insurance for full-time delivery riders, and a 10 billion yuan subsidy program [3]. - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years to subsidize consumers and support merchants [4]. Group 2: Market Potential - The online food delivery user base in China is projected to reach 545 million by 2024, accounting for about 50% of internet users [6]. - The market size of China's online food delivery industry is expected to grow to 1.6357 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [6]. - By 2027, the market size is anticipated to expand further to 1.9567 trillion yuan, indicating significant growth potential in the sector [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The competition among major players is expected to enhance the overall market vitality and stimulate growth in the restaurant sector [6]. - While short-term subsidies can drive order volume, long-term success will depend on factors such as delivery efficiency, merchant supply, and user retention [7]. - The competitive landscape is likely to stabilize over time, leading to a healthier market ecosystem and the potential for long-term value realization for platforms [7].

2025年初春，京东以雷霆之势杀入外卖市场，发展速度之快令整个行业为之震动。 之前抖音外卖花了五个月仅做到日单10万，而京东外卖仅仅2个多月就做到了单日超500万单，又过去一周后，京东外卖的日订单量已突破1000万单。 而随着刘强东亲自下场送外卖、与外卖骑手吃火锅、喝酒、吹牛，瞬间引爆网络，京东外卖的日单量想必还在飞速增长。 按此推算，京东外卖的日订单量突破2000万指日可待，甚至未来几个月突破3000万单也并非遥不可及。 从美团最初反击情况来看，显然是低估了京东的威胁，或许美团认为京东外卖又会是下一个抖音外卖，激不起多少风浪。 此前美团方面曾回应："京东不是第一家想做外卖的公司，也可能不是最后一家"。 但等美团近期加大力度回击时，京东外卖却已成气候，确实是低估了。 特别是刘强东亲自送外卖造势的行为，更为京东外卖带来了不可忽视的单量，此后一段时间仍会受益。 京东打美团正激烈，美团自然很受伤，毕竟外卖本身就是个存量市场，新玩家进场自然会瓜分原本的市场格局，美团的日单量必将下滑。 但京东打美团最受伤的其实并非美团，而是饿了么。 因为作为行业老二的饿了么在经营十多年后，当前日单量仅维持在2000万左右，而京东在短短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing subsidy war between JD.com and Meituan in the food delivery market may leave Ele.me as a potential loser, as it appears to be less active in this competitive landscape [1][11]. Group 1: Consumer Insights - Consumers have noted that Ele.me has lost its price advantage compared to JD.com and Meituan, leading to decreased usage of the platform [2][5]. - A consumer highlighted that while Ele.me was previously chosen for its lower prices, recent membership reforms by Meituan have diminished Ele.me's competitive edge [4][5]. - The perception among consumers is that Ele.me's lack of aggressive promotional activities has resulted in a decline in its attractiveness [5][10]. Group 2: Rider Perspectives - Riders have expressed dissatisfaction with Ele.me's compensation structure, stating that the pay per delivery is lower than that of competitors like Meituan [6][7]. - Some riders have switched to JD.com due to better pay and more favorable working conditions, indicating a potential talent drain from Ele.me [6][8]. - Despite the competitive pressure, some riders reported that Ele.me's order volume has remained stable, although they suspect that the number of riders leaving the platform may exceed the decline in order volume [8]. Group 3: Merchant Feedback - Merchants have reported a decline in order volume on Ele.me, attributing it to both historical issues and the recent competitive actions of JD.com and Meituan [10][11]. - A merchant with lower sales on Ele.me noted that the platform's order volume has not significantly increased even before the competition intensified, indicating ongoing challenges [10]. - Merchants have suggested that Ele.me's lack of promotional activities has contributed to its declining order volume, especially in the face of aggressive discounts from competitors [10][11]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to the competitive landscape, Ele.me has initiated measures such as optimizing its subsidy policies for riders and offering free red envelopes to consumers [11][13]. - The company appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, potentially waiting for the subsidy war between JD.com and Meituan to subside before making more aggressive moves [13][14]. - Despite current challenges, Ele.me still maintains a significant daily order volume, suggesting that it is not yet in a critical position [14].

紧急声明。 4月27日早间，美团官方微信公众号"小团有话说"发布《"双开App被封号""外卖柜排他""买到缩水餐"？关于三类网络不 实信息的声明》（简称"声明"）。 声明称，在澄清"去其他平台跑单会被美团永久封号"的谣言后，社交平台上依旧出现了骑手App显示"永久停止接单原因 为：存在使用双开或京东软件的行为"的谣言图片。经核实，该图片源自平台封禁违规抢单外挂的正常提示页，但IP地址 在广东的个别网民，对图片进行恶意P图后，极少数网民在微信群内进行传播。目前公司已针对谣言传播情况进行证据 固定，将通过法律手段维护自身权益。对于恶意发布上述不实图片，持续散播谣言的虚假摆拍账号、幕后推手，公司也 会加大固证和打击力度。 声明还指出，社交平台上，出现水军账号发帖称，"有骑手指出，若扫码放入外卖柜内，平台会获取跑单骑手的账号信 息，对多平台跑单骑手的账号进行封禁"等不实信息。美团第一时间联系相关部门同事，对发生此类现象的区域进行线 下核实发现，美团外卖柜设施的使用情况一切正常，产品端的存和取，均有"非美团骑手/订单"的设置，线下还设有"所 有平台均可微信扫码正常使用，为避免丢失，请存放入柜"的提示牌。现场看到有8—9 ...

过去一个月，美团和京东股价表现弱于基准指数，主要原因是投资者担忧京东激进进入中国外卖市场，以及美团可能采取的应 对措施。 摩根大通认为，京东的入局不会显著改变当前市场结构(美团 / 饿了么分别占据 75%/25% 的市场份额)。预计京东在 2025/26 年 将获得约 5% 的市场份额，2025 年底订单量 / 市场份额将提升至 10%，2026 年订单量 / 市场份额将回落。 摩根大通指出，尽管京东的入局对两家公司的短期盈利前景都带来潜在下行风险，但美团的短期盈利可能比京东更具韧性，因 为美团并未采取价格补贴策略。估值方面，美团的相对上行空间更大，其可持续的两位数盈利前景使其成为中国互联网一线标 的，通常交易估值为 15-20 倍远期市盈率。维持对两家公司的 "增持" 评级，但短期更看好美团。 报告主要内容如下： 一、市场结构观点 尽管京东在两个月内迅速抢占了中国外卖市场 5% 的份额，但我们认为其深度补贴的增长策略不可持续，原因如下： 外卖业务的较大亏损对京东集团利润造成压力; 难以通过交叉销售活动完全抵消外卖业务的亏损。 我们认为，新进入者通过深度补贴策略在中国移动（600941）互联网外卖市场获取显著 ...