尿素日报 | 2025-11-11 价格暂稳，新单跟进放缓 市场分析 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况 价格与基差：2025-11-10，尿素主力收盘1660元/吨（-7）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： -40元/吨（+27）；河南基差：-40元/吨（+27）；江苏基差：-50元/吨（+37）；尿素生产利润90元/吨（+20），出口利 润962元/吨（+42）。 供应端：截至2025-11-10，企业产能利用率82.71%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为157.81 万吨（+2.38），港口样本 库存量为7.90 万吨（-3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-11-10，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+0.00%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为53.20%（+3.22%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.29日（-0.24）。 尿素随出口配额消息期现共振上涨，市场交投氛围有所好转，价格暂稳，新单跟进放缓。目前部分地区农业秋季 肥收尾，复合肥秋季 ...

2025 年 11 月 10 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 【行业新闻】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 尿素：政策调节，估值重于驱动 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,667 | 1,644 | 2 3 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,668 | 1,640 | 2 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 321,705 | 148,885 | 172820 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 268,588 | 275,142 | -6554 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,585 | 3,900 | 685 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,073,438 | 488,275 | 585162 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -67 | -64 | - 3 | | | | ...

中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

尿素日报 | 2025-11-06 供应端：截至2025-11-05，企业产能利用率80.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为157.81 万吨（+2.38），港口样本 库存量为11.00 万吨（-10.00）。 需求端：截至2025-11-05，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+3.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.98%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.29日（-0.24）。 尿素现货在厂家下调报价后低价成交好转，持续性一般，预计短期震荡。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合 肥秋季肥生产收尾，整体开工率随装置恢复有所提升，当前冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，随天气转晴，走货 情绪转好。三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，刚需采购。随着新增产能释放，中长期尿素供需仍偏宽松，四季度气头检修 预计12月逐渐开始。本周产销弱平衡，尿素厂内库存小幅累库，库存高位仍为内蒙，关注东北复合肥开工率、原 料采购节奏以及全国淡储节奏。尿素目前仍受出口情绪影响，目前尿素出口政策仍有变化，关注后续尿素出口动 态。 策略 单边：区间震荡 跨期：观望 跨品种：无 厂内库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-05，尿素主力收 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20251106: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 11月5日 11月4日 | | | | 変化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对值) | (相对值) 0.18% | | 尿素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1633.00 1715.00 1450.00 | 1630.00 1710.00 1450.00 | 3.00 5.00 0.00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.29% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1739.00 | 1740.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1580.00 | 1570.00 | 10.00 | 0.64% | | 期现价格 | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1570.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 尿素早报 2025-11-5 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率高位回落，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气影响 有所回升，工业需求偏弱，复合肥开工同比中性、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价大，出口量 提升，出口预期逐渐兑现。国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1570（+10），基本面整体中 性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-60，升贴水比例-3.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存166.4万吨（-17.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面，工业需求偏弱，农业需求回升，国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent from a supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward drive for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are mainly making cautious restocking at low prices. The potential future drivers are the update and transformation of old chemical equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1630 yuan/ton on November 4, up 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1710 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1740 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 5073 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 and 05 increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1] 3. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1624 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1638 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1615 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1630 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1625 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 272271 hands [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory cautiously at low prices. Future potential drivers include the expected renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31; UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%); UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%) [1] Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%); in Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.68%); in Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%); in Hebei, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.24%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton, and the position was 269753 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply - demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for cautious restocking at low prices. Possible future driving factors include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31 [1]. - UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. - UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the small - particle urea spot price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%) from October 31 [1]. - In Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton on November 3, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 31 [1]. - In Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) from October 31 [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31 [1]. - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton on November 3, down 8 yuan from October 31 [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 269,753 hands [1]. Trading Strategy Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1].