| | | | | 尿素早评20250812: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 8月11日 8月8日 单位 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1751.00 1790.00 1730.00 | 1751.00 1784.00 1760.00 | 0.00 6.00 -30.00 | 0.00% 0.34% -1.70% -1.21% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1722.00 | 1728.00 | -6.00 | -0.35% | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1630.00 | 1650.00 | -20.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1780.00 | -40.00 | -2.25% | | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1780 | 0 | 09合约 | 1728 | - 9 | 仓 单 | 3623 | 250 | | 山东现货 | 1790 | -10 | 基 差 | 5 2 | 9 | UR综合库存 | 147 7 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1751 | - 6 | ...

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 7 日星期四 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 6 元至 1750 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 涨 10 至 1790 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2819 手至 17.29 万手，空头持仓减 少 5677 手至 19.06 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.21 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.20 万吨；较去年同 期增加 1.91 万吨；今日开工 82.98%，较去年同期 78.44%提升 4.54%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 88.76 万吨，较上周减少 2.97 万吨，环比减 | | | | | 少 3.24%。尿素港口样本库存量 49.3 万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender with a total of over 4.5 million tons and higher prices than the previous round boosted the urea futures price. The current urea production is at a high level with sufficient supply, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. During the export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable, and port inventories will stay high. Downstream industrial demand shows a slow recovery in compound fertilizer production and weak operation in melamine production. The domestic agricultural and industrial demand will gradually enter the off - season, and agricultural demand for urea is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [3] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,733 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory prices of small - sized urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,760 yuan/ton (0), 1,760 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,770 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 27 yuan/ton (-24), 27 yuan/ton (-34), and 37 yuan/ton (-24) respectively [2] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.60% (0.08%). The current urea production is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient, with the operating rate expected to remain high in the future [2][3] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 4, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production are relevant indicators for the operating rate [2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender had a minimum CFR price of 532 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 530 US dollars/ton on the west coast, higher than the previous round. As of August 4, 2025, the export profit was 982 yuan/ton (-88). During the domestic export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable [2][3] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of August 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.68% (+5.10%), and that of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.12 days (+0.18). The compound fertilizer operation is slowly recovering, while the melamine operation is weak [2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.73 million tons (+5.85), and the port sample inventory was 49.30 million tons (-5.00). With the end of the agricultural summer top - dressing season, agricultural demand for urea weakens, and upstream inventories start to accumulate [2][3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 尿素早报 2025-8-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡回落。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应 方面，日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落， 三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预 期放开。交割品现货1750（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差41，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1750 | -70 | 09合约 | 1714 | -28 | 仓 单 | 3233 | 333 | | 山东现货 | 1750 | -70 | 基 差 | 3 6 | -42 | UR综合库存 | 143 1 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1760 | 0 | UR01 | 1736 | -34 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-30 上游开工维持，基本面弱势 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-29，尿素主力收盘1744元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：16 元/吨（-26）；河南基差：26元/吨（-26）；江苏基差：46元/吨（-16）；尿素生产利润230元/吨（-20），出口利润1046 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-29，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-29，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 前期市场主要受行业反内卷以及淘汰落后产能等宏观政策影响，预期端偏强，目前市场情绪明显回落。尿素上游 开工短期维持，产量高位运行，新增装置逐步投产，产量延续高位。农业需求逐渐进入尾声 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方面，日产及 开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开 工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品 现货1820（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差76，升贴水比例4.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：近期尿素主力合约盘面震荡， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the previous trading day, UR fluctuated upwards and closed at 1803. On Friday night, coking coal prices dropped and hit the daily limit. The bullish sentiment brought by anti - involution may be adjusted, and urea prices may experience a compensatory decline today. Fundamentally, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. In terms of demand, the top - dressing demand in July will still support prices, but once domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate repeatedly, and it is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: - 1) [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 25, compared with July 24, UR01 in Shandong increased by 11 yuan/ton (0.61%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%), UR05 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.00%), and UR09 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.01%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan, small - particle urea decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Hebei and Northeast, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 38 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - In the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1786 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1813 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1803 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1798 yuan/ton. The holding volume of 2509 was 171,609 lots [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - **Profit**: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - **Strategy**: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - **Melamine Industry**: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - **Export**: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]