Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 in Shanxi: 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% [1]. - UR05: 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% [1]. - UR09: 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% [1]. - Hebei: 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Northeast: 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300585 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic considering the eased China - India relations. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Urea Futures Price - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% - UR05 closed at 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% - UR09 closed at 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - In Shandong, it was 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Henan, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% - In Hebei, it was 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Northeast China, it was 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Jiangsu, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Basis and Spread - The spread between Shandong spot and UR was - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1] Upstream Cost - The anthracite price in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 880 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2550 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Shandong was 5100 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 300,585 lots [1] Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices (View score: 0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market has weak domestic demand and lacks upward support. The market is in the process of bottom - building, and a technical rebound is expected later [1] - The supply side has a daily output of about 180,000 tons, with recent restarts and overhauls happening simultaneously. The inventory is high, and the market has abundant supply. The demand side has limited follow - up demand boost as downstream备货 is mostly completed [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened lower and rebounded weakly today, then declined in the afternoon. Downstream buyers took small quantities at low prices, and factory quotes continued to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,600 - 1,650 yuan/ton [1][4] - The daily output of urea on the supply side is about 180,000 tons. Jiujiang Xinlianxin's second - phase products are expected to be produced on the 15th. The inventory is high, and the market has sufficient supply [1] - On the demand side, downstream buyers took small quantities at low prices. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories increased to 37.82% this week, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the inventory of compound fertilizer factories and urea factories is at a high level in recent years, and subsequent demand boost is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,665 yuan/ton, then opened lower and rebounded weakly, and declined in the afternoon, closing at 1,663 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. The trading volume was 300,585 lots (+7,942 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 3,502 lots, and the short positions increased by 6,451 lots. Some futures companies' net positions are as follows: Zhongyuan Futures' net long position is - 1,374 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long position is + 209 lots, Dongzheng Futures' net short position is + 911 lots, and Yide Futures' net short position is + 741 lots [2] - On September 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,847, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day. Anhui Zhongneng decreased by 25, and Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 25 [2] Spot - Downstream buyers continued to take small quantities at low prices, and factory quotes continued to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,600 - 1,650 yuan/ton, with individual factories in Hebei having higher quotes [1][4] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, the mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 13 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton) [8] - On September 12, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 186,400 tons, remaining flat, and the operating rate was 78.76% [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, conduct positive spreads trading for UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spreads trading for UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading volume. Although the autumn agricultural fertilizer season has started in some areas and there is rigid demand from the compound fertilizer and melamine industries, industrial demand was previously affected by the military parade and is gradually recovering [2] - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, but the cost support is average [2] - The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, as the bid volume is at a historical high. September is still an export window period, with accelerating export rhythm and declining port inventories. The export volume in August and September is expected to be high, which will lead to a decrease in urea inventories. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7][8][15][17] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][23] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][29][32] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [33][35][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [54][57][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - For cross - period trading, before the export window period, UR01 - 05 positive spread can be used to trade fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 short the spread when it is high. Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand, with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading. The agricultural autumn fertilizer season has started in some areas, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine is for essential purchases. The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on factories, but the operating rate will recover. Urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and the cost support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory. We should focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On September 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (-14). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1670 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1670 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1650 yuan/ton (-20). The small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was 1 yuan/ton (+14), the Henan basis was 1 yuan/ton (+4), and the Jiangsu basis was - 19 yuan/ton (-6) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of September 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 140 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is decent, and the cost support is average [1][2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1085 yuan/ton (+6). The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.88 days (+0.47). The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the parade, but the operating rate will recover [1][2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09). The export is ongoing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the export in August and September may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [2] - Research Area: Energy and Chemicals [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1669 (-17/-1.01%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices weakened and declined, with general trading. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1490 - 1550 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On September 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.51 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.36 tons compared to the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on this day was 79.12%, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 81.42% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Market sentiment was average, with urea spot factory quotes in mainstream areas declining and trading being mediocre [5] - Regional Market Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes led the decline, and the factory quotes were expected to be weakly stable; in Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the factory quotes were expected to follow the decline; in the surrounding areas of the delivery zone, the factory prices were expected to decline [5] - Supply and Demand: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. India tendered for 200,000 tons again. The domestic demand was in a "vacuum period", and the overall demand showed a downward trend. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 37,700 tons to around 1.1327 million tons [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. The Indian tender had a certain support for the domestic spot market sentiment, but the domestic demand was weak, and the urea market was expected to continue its weak operation [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term bearish, do not chase the short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - term: Before the export window period, conduct positive spread trading on UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spread trading on UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders, with light trading volume and weak domestic demand. Some regions are starting to use autumn fertilizers in agriculture, and industrial demand mainly comes from the rigid procurement of compound fertilizers and melamine. Industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on panel factories and compound fertilizer factories, but the operating rate will rise. Urea production remains at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and cost - side support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decline in urea inventory. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][15] 2. Urea Production - Includes charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [17][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Includes charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][34] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Includes charts of urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB price minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia and China's FOB price, urea export profit, and disk export profit [31][33][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Includes charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [50][51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [55][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Downstream domestic demand is insufficient, short - term export boost is limited, and urea is expected to run weakly. There is a technical rebound expected due to the support of autumn fertilizers and off - season storage. Caution is advised when short - selling [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat, with upstream factory quotes weakly stable and new orders having poor sales. Indian NFL's September 2nd urea import tender price was significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume reached 5.6 million tons, a record high [1] - Recent urea daily production fluctuated within 180,000 - 190,000 tons, the lowest in recent months, but it was normal summer maintenance and did not change the loose supply pattern [1] - Affected by parades and major meetings, compound fertilizer factories' production decreased significantly this period, and are expected to gradually resume production this week. Northeast fertilizer preparation will start slowly, and factory inventories continued to accumulate, increasing by 0.92 tons (0.85% month - on - month) compared to last week [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Urea's main 2601 contract opened at 1,718 yuan/ton, closed flat at 1,713 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 236,446 lots (+2,095 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 891 lots and short positions increased by 3,287 lots [2] - Spot: Upstream factory quotes were weakly stable, and new orders had poor sales. Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,650 - 1,680 yuan/ton [1][6] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [9] - Supply: On September 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 183,400 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 77.49% [10] - Warehouse receipts: On September 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, an increase of 371 compared to the previous trading day, with 271 in Liaoning Fertilizer and 100 in Beifeng Seed Industry [4]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 can conduct reverse spread at high levels [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - India's NFL urea import tender received a large amount of supplies at a lower price, and the follow - up award quantity is worthy of attention [2] - The domestic urea spot market has seen improved transactions after price cuts, but the sustainability is weak; agricultural and industrial demands co - exist, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose [2] - Urea production is high, with a decline this week due to more maintenance; coal - based urea profit is acceptable with general cost support [2] - September is the export window period, with continuous exports and increasing port inventories; follow - up attention should be paid to port operations and export dynamics [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1714 yuan/ton (+0); Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1710 yuan/ton (0); Shandong small - particle price was 1700 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu small - particle price was 1710 yuan/ton (-10); small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong basis was - 14 yuan/ton (-10); Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (+0.08%); this week, there were many maintenance enterprises, and the production decreased; with new capacity release, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-10); coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is general [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - India's NFL tender received a large amount of supplies, with the lowest price on the east coast at 462.45 US dollars/ton and on the west coast at 464.70 US dollars/ton, nearly 70 US dollars/ton lower than the previous price; urea export profit was 1186 yuan/ton (+4); September is the export window period, and exports are continuing [2][1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 4, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); urea enterprise advance order days were 6.41 days (+0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 109.50 million tons (+0.92), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09); the export collection rhythm has accelerated, and port inventories are continuously accumulating [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 reverse spread on high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are in a short - term stalemate with slight inventory build - up. Recent price cuts by manufacturers led to improved short - term transactions, but the sustainability is weak. The market is waiting for the results of Indian tenders. Some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizer demand is starting, while industrial demand is weak due to factors like the military parade. Urea production is at a high level but may decline slightly this week due to increased maintenance. In the long - term, supply and demand are still relatively loose with new capacity coming online. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and the cost support is average. The export window in September is driving continuous exports and accelerating port inventory accumulation [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread are presented [6][7][8][17][18] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is provided [20][25] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Details about production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are given [23][28][31][36] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and the differences between them, as well as urea export profit and disk export profit are shown [33][35][39][41][44] 3.5 Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Information on compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise pre - received order days is provided [50][51][52] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume are presented [55][58][61]