Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 buy low for positive spread arbitrage - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Partially affected by snow and rain, logistics was hindered, market trading cooled, and spot prices were stable with a slight decline. Manufacturers cut prices to attract orders, and some trading improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas for compound fertilizers were lifted, leading to increased production and better procurement. Melamine plants resumed production, with increased operation rates and rigid - demand procurement. Affected by weather and logistics, new order trading was average this week, but the demand in the Northeast drove inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Overall, the in - factory inventory of urea decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose, but there was no new news about domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 21, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1779 yuan/ton (+4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 29 yuan/ton (- 4), in Henan was - 39 yuan/ton (- 14), and in Jiangsu was - 29 yuan/ton (- 14) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 21, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.25% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 859 yuan/ton (- 1) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of January 21, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.18% (+7.83%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.60 tons (- 4.01), and the port sample inventory was 12.90 tons (- 0.60) [1]

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：基本面逐渐转好，尿素易涨难跌 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，日内上涨。天气转好以来，市场低端价格成交有所增 加，整体报价小幅上涨。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围 多在 1680-1720 元/吨。基本面来看，目前多个数据口径统计日产均 20 万吨附 近。无装置有停车检修计划，前期气头停产企业陆续开始复产，供给端总体稳 定，无过大变量，最近天气转晴后，农业经销商拿货增强，苏皖地区拿货及下 一轮的返青追肥均属于短期需求增长点，本期复合肥工厂开工及成品库存同步 增加，目前库存下沉过程中，预计年前开工负荷继续增长有限，大多工厂以销 定产为主。本周库存继续去化，主要系东北地区需求增加，带动周边工厂同步 去库，去化趋势大概率将继续维持，全国天气预计半月后都开始不同程度的回 暖，农业需求将开始逐渐启动，春节前同样有补库预期，尿素整体易涨难跌。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1773 元/吨开盘,高开高走，日内上涨。最终 收 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 20 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌。工厂开始降价吸单，但低价成交依然有 限，现货氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，低端价格在河南地区。基本面来看，目前暂无装置有停车检 修计划，前期气头停产企业陆续开始复产，供给端虽长期压制价格，但总体稳 定，无过大变量，目前多个数据口径统计日产均 20 万吨附近。下游冬储已过大 半，农需工需环比均好转，复合肥工厂开工及成品库存同步增加，虽目前位于 下游年前备货补货期，但下游实际拿货量少，目前库存下沉过程中，预计年前 开工负荷继续增长有限，大多工厂以销定产为主。本期库存继续去化，一方面 期货行情氛围高涨，下游积极拿货备肥，另一方面，环保预警解除后，下游开 工负荷稳步抬升，库存目前已去化至一百万吨以下，预计随着年前备货的跟 进，尿素将继续去化。今年年前气温已逐渐开始回暖，又临近年前补货，预计 后续拿货有回温，尿素盘面跌势放缓，震荡整理后依然有偏强预期。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1772 元/吨开盘, 低开低走，日内下跌。最 终收于 1775 元/吨，收 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-20 雨雪天气尿素成交放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-19，尿素主力收盘1772元/吨（-19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-22 元/吨（-1）；河南基差：-22元/吨（+9）；江苏基差：-12元/吨（+9）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-20），出口利润852 元/吨（+15）。 单边：短期震荡 跨期：UR05-09逢低正套 跨品种：无 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2026-01-19，企业产能利用率85.25%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为98.61 万吨（-3.61），港口样本 库存量为12.90 万吨（-0.60）。 需求端：截至2026-01-19，复合肥产能利用率40.08%（+2.91%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.18%（+7.83%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.06日（-0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream procurement and fertilizer preparation cannot keep up with the continuous upward movement of the futures market. The spot market drags down the futures price. Although the snow and rain weather affects the fertilizer preparation process in North China, the approaching spring plowing limits the downward adjustment of the futures price. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - Currently, the supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the overall trend of urea is expected to be bullish [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - The market trading atmosphere has weakened. Factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and some factories have started to reduce prices to attract orders after digesting their orders. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei range from 1690 to 1730 yuan/ton [2][4][5]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market had fluctuations. As of January 19, the main May contract of urea closed at 1772 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 12. The weekly trading volume was 1461.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.04 million tons, and the open interest was 759.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.73 million tons [7]. - Since mid - December, due to off - season storage, exports, and gas - head production cuts, the futures price has continuously risen. After reaching a high of 1820 yuan/ton last Thursday, it is in a technical correction. The basis has strengthened, and as of January 19, the 05 - contract basis was - 22 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 21 yuan/ton. The number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, a week - on - week increase of 155 [7][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly urea production increased. From January 8 to January 14, the weekly urea production was 1.4051 billion tons, an increase of 33.5 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.44%. The average daily production was 200,700 tons. Coal - based production increased by 1.66%, and gas - based production increased by 7.96%. Small - particle production increased by 3.59%, and large - particle production decreased by 1.87%. It is expected that 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 19, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 83.57% [14]. - In the raw material market, the cold air in the northern region is expected to increase coal consumption, strengthening cost support. As of January 12, the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 was 704 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton; the price of washed small anthracite in Jincheng was 900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas increased by 5.18% week - on - week. The price of synthetic ammonia increased, and the price of methanol remained flat [16][17]. 3.4. Urea Demand End - As of January 19, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cost of compound fertilizer is strongly supported. The operating rate and finished - product inventory of compound fertilizer factories have increased simultaneously, but the actual downstream purchases are small. It is expected that the pre - holiday operating load will have limited growth, and most factories produce based on sales. As of January 16, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 40.08%, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.16% [20]. - From January 10 to January 16, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.18%, an increase of 7.83 percentage points from the previous period and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the melamine operating rate will continue to rise [20]. - As of January 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.53% and 643,400 tons lower than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline [21]. 3.5. International Market - International urea prices continue to rise due to the Iran geopolitical conflict. The market is skeptical about the resumption of plant production, and China is expected not to over - open exports under the background of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the first quarter. As the global urea demand period approaches, international urea prices are bullish [23]. - As of January 19, the FOB prices of small - particle and large - particle urea in different regions have increased to varying degrees, with some prices remaining unchanged [23][25].

尿素产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1772 | -19 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 26 | -2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 235887 | -7105 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -16744 | 148 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 13355 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -22 | -1 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 375 | 7.5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 405 | 2.5 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea is in a phase of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity in 2026, and its price center will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. The price trend in the first half of the year will depend on the demand rhythm, and in the second half, it will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation, but the price is expected to correct in the short term, with the top range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The short - term upstream price will remain firm, and some prices will continue to rise, but the market is afraid of high prices, and the procurement rhythm of the middle and lower reaches has slowed down [8]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the UR2605 operating range between 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to build long positions around 1700 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea is in a supply - surplus stage. In 2026, the price center will decline, and the price trend will be affected by export policies and demand rhythm. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation but may correct in the short term [4]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the UR2605 operating in the range of 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to build long positions around 1700 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The 11, 12, 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. The upper pressure of the 05 contract is 1950 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1650 yuan/ton. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [12]. - **Negative Information**: The current domestic daily urea production is 20810 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices will resume operation, and some gas - head urea plants will have concentrated maintenance. The domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly after a narrow increase. The demand side should focus on the procurement rhythm of reserve demand and the start - up change of Northeast compound fertilizer plants [12]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - China's urea production this week was 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37400 tons or 2.93%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, continuing to increase [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The prices of small and medium - sized particles in the mainstream areas are between 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the news of a new round of Indian tenders, the market sentiment is strong, but the middle and lower reaches are resistant. The short - term market will continue to be stable and strong [14]. - After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to do a positive spread for 5 - 9 at low positions [15]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% in three years [21]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including shorting urea futures, buying put options, selling call options, etc., with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The document shows the seasonal charts of urea's weekly fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, natural - gas production cost, and corresponding production profits [25][27]. 4.2 Upstream Start - up Rate Tracking - The document presents the seasonal charts of urea's daily output, weekly capacity utilization rate, weekly coal - head capacity utilization rate, and weekly natural - gas production capacity utilization rate [31]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The document includes the seasonal charts of China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, weekly port inventory, weekly Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the combined inventory of ports and inland areas [33][35]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The document shows the seasonal charts of compound fertilizer's weekly capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, production profit, and the seasonal charts of melamine's weekly capacity utilization rate, market price, production volume, and production profit. It also shows the market prices of different types of compound fertilizers and synthetic ammonia [37][45][51]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The document provides the seasonal charts of urea's average production and sales, as well as the production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [61][62].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：下游需求跟进，盘面支撑强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 15 日 【行情分析】 尿素高开高走，日内偏强，现货报价上涨，且工厂出现停售现象，未来几 天收单加持下，报价将趋于稳定。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂 价格范围多在 1700-1730 元/吨。基本面来看，气头装置依然继续停车降产中， 但煤头装置产能占比连年上涨后，冲抵部分冬季限产的影响，元旦复工以来， 尿素日产稳步增加，近期维持在 19-20 万吨附近，近期下游需求明显好转，一 方面期货火热情绪的传导，另一方面，农业需求备肥拿货有所增加。工业需求 复合肥工厂及三聚氰胺开工负荷均有不同程度的抬升，复合肥开工率增加 2.91%至 40.08%，本期提升主要系前期停车企业的复产，临近假期，开工高位 持续时间有限，即将进入淡季回落期，厂内成品库存稳步增加，冬储肥正常推 进中，三聚氰胺开工率增加 7.83%至 62.18%。本期库存转为去化，冬储农业需 求推荐有增加，今日数据显示库存去化至 100 万吨以下，环比减少 3.53%。综 合来看，尿素。综合来看，尿素上涨步伐放缓，但临近农需旺季阶段，库存低 位支撑盘面，尿素中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with fluctuations [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The spot market for urea is booming, with factory inventories being depleted. In January, supply increased as some gas - based and technologically - upgraded enterprises resumed production. Demand improved from both agricultural and industrial sectors, including winter and green - turning fertilizer purchases, ongoing light - storage procurement, increased compound fertilizer production, and restarted melamine plants. The international urea market sentiment was boosted by the Indian NFL's import tender. Continued attention should be paid to export trends, national light - storage rhythms, and the persistence of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [5][6] 2. Urea Output - Relevant figures are urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss [5][6] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, futures - based production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][6] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and FOB price of small - particle urea in China minus 30, the difference between CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and FOB price of small - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and futures - based export profit [5][6] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [5][6] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [5][6]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 36 元至 1814 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 10 加 少 | 元至 1750 元/吨。持仓方面， ...