Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, driven by various factors including expectations of monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently broken through a two-week consolidation range, returning above $4,300 per ounce, with a notable increase in market support [2]. - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with potential upward movement influenced by a weaker dollar and increased market risk aversion [2]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are anticipated to significantly impact economic outlook and precious metals market trends, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][3]. Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - Platinum and palladium prices have surged, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium by 4.73%, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [1][4]. - The supply side remains tight, with high leasing rates for platinum and palladium indicating ongoing supply pressure [4]. - The rise in silver prices has also positively influenced platinum and palladium, as increased demand for industrial metals drives investor interest [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and continued central bank gold purchases [4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience a gradual upward trend, despite short-term fluctuations [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！ 先来看重要市场行情，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.12%，报4333.30美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货 收涨3.42%，报64.13美元/盎司。 此外，特朗普还就对乌安全保障作简要说明，他表示，美国正在该问题上与欧洲合作。欧洲将在其中发 挥重要作用。特朗普表示，他们正在努力制定安全保障措施。 特朗普还表示，他与俄罗斯总统普京进行了多次对话，还得到了欧洲领导人的巨大支持，各方均希望结 束这场冲突。特朗普表示，必须让乌克兰和俄罗斯达成一致，他认为目前进展顺利，谈话也很有效。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，截至11月25日当周，COMEX黄金期货投机客将净多头 头寸增加11291份合约，至107976份合约；COMEX白银投机客将净多头头寸减少806份合约，至20127 份合约。 消息面上，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为75.6%；到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为43.5%，维持利率不变的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为9. ...

Core Viewpoint - The spot silver price has reached a new high, surpassing $60 per ounce for the first time, hitting a peak of $61.02 per ounce as of December 10, 9 AM Beijing time [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the strong upward movement in silver prices [1] - The increase in silver prices reflects a strengthening of the precious metal's safe-haven attributes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The spot silver price has reached a new high of $61.02 per ounce, marking the first time it has surpassed the $60 per ounce threshold, driven by increased market risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - The rise in silver prices reflects the strengthening of precious metals' safe-haven attributes [1] - Analysts from Dongxing Futures attribute the price surge to heightened market risk aversion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened lower on December 3, with all three major indices declining due to rising risk aversion and negative news from Microsoft regarding its AI software sales quotas [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05% - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.21% - The Nasdaq index dropped by 0.45% [1] Company Impact - Microsoft reported a reduction in sales quotas for its AI software, leading to a 2.77% decline in its stock price - This decline in Microsoft's stock negatively affected the performance of technology stocks and the overall market [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have shown an upward trend over the past seven trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 4%, indicating a strong market overall [1] - The structural weakening of the US dollar is a key factor supporting gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve rising to 89.4%, reducing the relative attractiveness of dollar assets [2] - The US dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering around 99.4, below the important psychological level of 100, which lowers the cost of purchasing gold for holders of other currencies, stimulating short-term demand in the international market [2] Group 2 - Changes in fund flows are reflected in the holdings data of gold ETFs, with major global gold ETFs recording net inflows over the past three weeks, indicating a moderate recovery in institutional investors' interest in gold [5] - The current market risk appetite supports gold, as it remains a key safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainties, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index at 25, indicating "extreme fear" [8] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have maintained a clear upward channel over the past three months, with indicators like the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, suggesting dominant buying power [9]

11:34 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1050.01 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间: 2025-12- 1.060 1.050 1.040 1.030 1,020 1.010 1.000 990 2025-10-22 2025-10-07 2025-11-11 2025 -- EBC黄金属于持仓报告解读 截至12月1日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1050.01吨，较前一个交易日增加4.58吨。12月1日，现货黄金震荡上涨，盘中最高触及4263.94 美元/盎司，创下六周以来最高，得益于市场避险情绪升温，叠加美联储即将召开的12月会议可能降息的预期，共同推动金价上涨，当天收于4330美元/盎司 附近。 基本面消息，全球股市周一普遍承压，12月伊始市场避险情绪浓厚。美国投资者在关键经济数据和美联储会议前保持谨慎。亚洲市场尤其是日本股市受日本 央行行长植田和男鹰派言论（将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊）拖累。 与此同时，市场目前已将美联储下周会议降息25个基点的概率定价至约87%。这一预期源于多位决策者近期偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a significant upward trend, primarily driven by market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 1, spot gold rose by 0.38% to $4239.22 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4256.55 per ounce [1] - The volatility in market risk sentiment is a key factor influencing gold prices, with the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut being a dominant driver [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The unresolved situation in Ukraine continues to sustain market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Central Bank Behavior - Global central bank gold purchases are crucial to monitor, especially in December, which is a key settlement period; such purchases are seen as effective means to stabilize foreign exchange and financial markets, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - While some investment banks hold an optimistic outlook on future gold price increases, individual investors are advised to remain cautious, focusing on the resilience and sustainability of price levels above $4200 per ounce, with potential targets of $4300 and $4400 per ounce [1] - Investors are encouraged to maintain flexibility in their investment strategies, with small amounts of capital suggesting options like paper gold and bank-stored gold for asset allocation [1]

Core Insights - Cryptocurrency prices experienced a significant decline on Monday, reigniting a broad sell-off that seemed to have stabilized [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin dropped by 4.6% during early Asian trading, reaching $86,967.04, and remains below $88,000 [3] - Ethereum fell by 6.3% to $2,832.12, currently trading below $2,900 [3] - The sell-off began in early October, resulting in approximately $19 billion in leveraged bets being wiped out [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Following a period of selling pressure, Bitcoin had recently recovered, reaching over $90,000 before the latest decline [3] - Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading at FalconX Asia Pacific, noted that the market is entering December with a risk-averse sentiment [3] - Concerns are raised regarding low inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a lack of buyers stepping in at lower prices, with $80,000 identified as the next key support level for Bitcoin [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment is weak, LME inventory is gradually recovering, and the domestic demand side is in the off - season. Zinc prices are under pressure and may remain weakly consolidated in the short term. Considering the continuous decline of TC, the support from the raw material end is strong, and there is a certain production cut expectation for smelters in the future. It is expected that the downside space of zinc prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. Previous short positions can consider step - by - step stop - profit, and wait for opportunities to participate in long positions after the callback [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.22% to 22,370 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 0.13% to 22,395 yuan/ton; London zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 0.75% to 2,992 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 TC Continues to Decline, Pay Attention to Ingot - End Start - up 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 21, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 274,200 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in US dollars before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average) [30][32]. - As of November 20, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,288 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [39]. - Domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. On November 21, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [40][43]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated and declined, and TC decreased. The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 20, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,428 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of raw material stockpiling and the continuous decline of processing fees, it is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [44][49]. - The import profit window of refined zinc was closed. As of November 21, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,164.59 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [50][54]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - up Declines 3.3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 57.17%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and the black prices were always low, so the downstream's willingness to stock up was low. Some galvanizing enterprises reduced their start - up to avoid excessive finished product inventory [60][62]. - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices declined, and galvanizing enterprises picked up goods at the spot price more frequently, resulting in an obvious accumulation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises also increased. Due to poor demand and general downstream purchases, the finished product inventory accumulated [63][65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Slight Fluctuation in Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - up 3.4.1 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.22% to 23,115 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy dropped by 0.21% to 23,665 yuan/ton [71][73]. - The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.72 percentage points to 51.02%. The resumption of production of some enterprises during the week drove a slight increase in start - up. However, the terminal market was generally dull, and it is expected that the start - up may decline in the future [74][76]. - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led alloy factories to replenish inventory at low prices, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, resulting in a slight reduction of finished product inventory [77][79]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Slight Increase in Zinc Oxide Start - up 3.5.1 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained flat compared with the previous period. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton [85]. - The start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.94 percentage points to 57.25%. The increase in production of some enterprises drove an increase in start - up. However, from the current demand side, the demand for rubber - grade and electronic - grade products slowed down, and it is expected that the start - up will be difficult to increase significantly in the future [86][88]. - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased. Some raw material prices were still high, and enterprises maintained just - in - time purchases, resulting in a slight fluctuation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises slightly decreased. The accelerated delivery rhythm of some terminal customers drove the reduction of finished product inventory, but there are still certain risks on the demand side in the future [89][91]. 3.6 Purchase at Low Prices, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory 3.6.1 Inventory - As of November 20, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 144,500 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decline in zinc ingot social inventory. As of November 20, the inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous period [97][99]. - As of November 21, the SHFE inventory was 100,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 47,300 tons, and the inventory continued to increase [100][102]. 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in September 2025, the production was 600,000 tons, the import volume was 22,700 tons, the export volume was 2,500 tons, the apparent consumption was 620,000 tons, the actual consumption was 623,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was - 2,000 tons [108].