2025 年刚过九个月，黄金已创下至少 36 次历史新高，相当于每月有超 4 天在刷新纪录。截至 9 月 26 日，现货金价报 3749.07 美元 / 盎司，年内涨幅超 40%，摩根大通更预测 2026 年中金价将突破 4150 美元。这波凌厉涨势的背后，是货币政策、区域需求与地缘风险的三重共振。 亚洲需求的爆发构成核心支撑。世界黄金协会数据显示，今年二季度全球金条与金币需求达 307 吨，其中中国以 115 吨领跑，同比激增 44%，而美国仅 9 吨。中国央行更连续 10 个月增持黄金，并通过上海黄金交易所吸引外国央行托管储备金，已有东南亚国家表达兴趣。这种需求力量正冲击伦敦、纽约主导 的传统格局，为金价提供持续性支撑。 地缘与金融风险则成为重要催化剂。中东冲突扩散、俄乌谈判僵局等事件持续发酵，叠加特朗普政府对美联储的政治施压，市场避险情绪升温。同时，全球 金融体系对美资产曝险率高达 90% 的集中风险，促使资金转向黄金分散配置，新加坡主权基金 CEO 林昭杰早预警此类风险隐患。 不过风险仍需警惕：若通胀反弹迫使美联储暂停降息，或市场风险偏好回升分流资金，金价可能承压。但当前就业疲软与地缘动荡未改，叠加全 ...

Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on various imported products, effective October 1, including 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on imported furniture, and 100% on patented and branded drugs [1] - The announcement triggered a risk-off sentiment in global markets, with major Asian stock indices declining, particularly Japan and South Korea [1][2] - The new tariffs added uncertainty to an already tense market environment, as investors were closely monitoring upcoming inflation reports for clues on future interest rate movements [1] Group 2: Impact on Asian Markets - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell approximately 0.6% to 45,478 points, with significant declines in pharmaceutical stocks, including a 5.2% drop for Sumitomo Pharma and a 3.9% drop for Chugai Pharmaceutical [2] - The South Korean KOSPI index dropped 2.5% to 3,384.58 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline amid growing concerns over prolonged tariff negotiations with the U.S. [4] - Other markets showed weakness, with the Indian BSE Sensex index down 0.7%, while the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index managed a slight increase of 0.2% [4] Group 3: U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a three-day decline prior to Trump's tariff announcement, primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic data that raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts [4] - The strong economic performance has led to skepticism regarding the continuation of rate cuts, which have been a significant driver of U.S. stock market gains this year [4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 98.36, while the euro rose by 0.1% to 1.1680 [4] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market downturn, oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures reaching $69.67 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.3% to $64.59 per barrel [9] - The increase in oil prices was driven by geopolitical tensions and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, pushing benchmark prices to their highest levels since August 1 [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a strong rebound in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, which have made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [2][3] - On September 25, gold was trading around $3740 per ounce, having dropped 1.25% to a low of $3717.63 on September 24, closing at $3735.88, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.75% from the previous trading day [2] - The dollar index rose about 0.65% on September 24, reaching a near two-week high, which has suppressed demand for gold [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is expected to trade within a range of $3717 to $3780, with a recommendation to wait for pullbacks before entering long positions [3] - Key support levels are identified at $3715 and $3680, while resistance levels are at $3780 and $3800 [3] - Domestic gold prices, such as the Shanghai gold contract, have also shown a downward adjustment, with the contract dropping from 862 to 852, indicating a potential for further adjustments [3]

在美国的房屋销售市场中，新屋销售所占比例约为10%。其数据在签订合同之时便已被纳入统计范畴， 且相较于交易完成时间，通常会提前至少一个月。与成屋销售相比，新屋销售堪称反映美国房地产市场 趋势的重要领先指标。然而，需特别留意的是，新屋销售的每月数据呈现出较大的波动性。 今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于860元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报855.48元/克， 跌幅0.25%，最高触及859.96元/克，最低下探852.21元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 【要闻速递】 值得关注的是，美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）计划于本周四公布成屋销售的最新报告，后续动 态值得持续关注。此外，在其他关键经济数据方面，可着重留意美国第二季度实际GDP、核心PCE物价 指数年化季率终值以及8月耐用品订单月率初值等指标。 摘要今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于860元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报855.48元/ 克，跌幅0.25%，最高触及859.96元/克，最低下探852.21元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 与此同时，地缘政治局势显露出缓和态势。一方面，川总 ...

张尧浠：金价短线获利了结调整、回踩支撑仍是多头机会 上交易日周三(9月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，仍未能收线在阻力位上方，使得多头动力减弱，但也仍未跌破5-10日短期均线支撑，故此，操作上，回 踩5/10日均线支撑，仍是先行看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3764.85美元/盎司，先行V型反弹，于欧盘开盘录得日内高点3779.02美元后，遇阻回撤，延续到美盘时段持续走低，于盘尾 触及日内低点3717.61美元，最后有所止跌回升，收于3735.87美元，日振幅61.41美元，收跌28.98美元，跌幅0.77%。 周图，金价自去年开涨攀升以来，如期第4次回踩中轨线支撑，并再度向上攀升，且不断触及给出的看涨目标位，目前多头在目标阻力位附近有所减弱， 短期面临一定调整行情，但整体的看涨趋势依然未有改变，故此，如有进一步调整，下方5-10周均线也是再度入场看涨机会，但如运行在阻力位附近或上 方收线，则下周可继续跟进看涨。 今日周四(9月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到昨日尾盘的止跌回升之力，以及5日均线支撑的买盘推动，而先行反弹走强，同时，美元指数早盘多头动力先行减 缓运行，也对其金价产生一定支撑； 但美元指数昨日 ...

随后，美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调，高通胀风险与就业市场走弱叠加，为货币政策制定带来挑战。他警 告不要把进一步宽松视为理所当然。不过，这并未改变市场对美联储11月降息、甚至12月再度降息的预 期。 TMGM外汇据悉，在瑞士方面，周三发布的ZEW调查显示，9月商业环境意外改善，预期指数从8月 的-53.8升至-46.4。 然而，投资者的关注焦点仍在周四的瑞士央行货币政策决议。市场普遍预计，央行将维持现行0%的利 率水平。但由于宏观经济数据疲软，以及与美国贸易关系存在不确定性，央行可能会释放未来进一步降 息的信号。这意味着瑞郎面临的风险仍偏向下行。 周三，美元兑瑞郎加速反弹，盘中一度升至0.7940上方。市场避险情绪升温，推动美元在各主要货币对 中走强，而瑞郎在瑞士央行（SNB）周四的货币政策决议前表现疲软。 周二公布的美国数据显示，服务业和制造业活动双双放缓，符合市场预期，但整体仍处于温和增长区 间。 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly. The price of London gold broke through the $3,700 per ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold futures broke through the 85 yuan per gram mark, both hitting new all - time highs. Silver prices also rose, but the short - term upward momentum slowed down [4][5]. - In the short term, precious metal prices will remain high and strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices due to potential increased volatility during the National Day holiday [5]. - In the long term, factors such as the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, the unsustainable US debt, and the intensification of great - power competition will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit, and the central banks' gold purchases will continue. Therefore, the long - term price center of gold is likely to move upward [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 23, compared with September 22, London gold spot rose 1.0% to $3,752.14 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.1% to $43.74 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.0% to $3,786.20 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.3% to $44.11 per ounce, AU2510 rose 1.1% to 851.92 yuan per gram, AG2510 rose 0.2% to 10,306 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 1.1% to 849.90 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.3% to 10,279 yuan per kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From September 22 to September 23, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 2.5 yuan per gram to - 2.02 yuan per gram, a change of - 19.2%; the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 31 yuan per kilogram to - 27 yuan per kilogram, a change of - 12.9%; the gold's internal - external spread (TD - London) changed from - 8.56 yuan per gram to - 7.29 yuan per gram, a change of - 14.9%; the silver's internal - external spread (TD - London) changed from - 914 yuan per kilogram to - 895 yuan per kilogram, a change of - 2.0%; the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 0.8% to 82.66; the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.7% to 85.85; the spread between AU2512 - 2510 rose 0.6% to 3.52 yuan per gram; the spread between AG2512 - 2510 rose 26.5% to 43 yuan per kilogram [3]. Position Data - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of September 16 (weekly data), compared with September 19, the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold increased 0.59% to 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 4.38% to 60,368 contracts, and the net long positions increased 1.78% to 266,410 contracts; the non - commercial long positions in COMEX silver decreased 1.14% to 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 8.49% to 20,085 contracts, and the net long positions decreased 4.45% to 51,538 contracts [3]. - **ETF Positions**: From September 19 to September 22, the gold ETF - SPDR position increased 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position increased 1.08% to 15,368.89554 tons [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: From September 22 to September 23, the SHFE gold inventory increased 2.76% to 59,013 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 0.04% to 1,149,043 kilograms [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: From September 19 to September 22, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.56% to 39,682,786 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.06% to 524,378,224 troy ounces [3]. Market Review and Analysis - **Market Review**: On September 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.99% to 85.44 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the market continued to bet on two more rate cuts this year. The potential government "shutdown" and the cryptocurrency market turmoil increased market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a strong rise in precious metal prices. Silver's short - term upward momentum slowed down. In the short term, precious metal prices will remain high, but investors should be cautious about increased volatility. In the long term, gold's price center is likely to move upward [5].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with overall prices approaching 1100 yuan per gram, as seen in various brand stores [1] - The highest price is from Chow Sang Sang at 1100 yuan per gram, while the lowest is from Shanghai China Gold at 1011 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 89 yuan [1] - Specific gold prices from major brands include: Lao Miao at 1097 yuan, Liufu at 1098 yuan, and Zhou Dafu at 1098 yuan, all showing an increase of 10-13 yuan [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum jewelry prices have also increased, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum price rising by 5 yuan per gram to 572 yuan per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price has surged by 13.2 yuan per gram, with various brand recovery prices showing significant differences [2] - Specific recovery prices include: 838.00 yuan for gold, 843.50 yuan for Cai Zhi, and 851.00 yuan for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 4: International Gold Market - Spot gold prices have reached a historical high of 3748.65 USD per ounce, closing at 3746.36 USD per ounce with a 1.68% increase [4] - Current spot gold is reported at 3755.17 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.24% rise, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a declining dollar index [4] - Geopolitical events, including the French debt crisis and Middle East tensions, have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting gold prices [4] - The shift in gold market dynamics includes increased participation from Western institutional investors, as evidenced by rising gold ETF holdings [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking a significant increase from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1, representing an almost 8% rise within the month [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 40%, reflecting strong demand and market dynamics [1]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has led to initial volatility in gold prices, with a brief retreat following the announcement [2]. - Despite the initial drop, gold prices rebounded due to continued expectations of further rate cuts and heightened geopolitical risks, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against potential risks [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking by investors, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing monetary easing expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Central banks continue to maintain a net buying stance on gold, with a reported net increase of 10 tons in global official gold reserves as of July 2025, indicating sustained institutional demand [4].

说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 上周五现货黄金盘中不断震荡，晚间出现拉升。最终收报3684.36美元/盎司，涨幅1.10%。今日金价继 续保持回升，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3705.72美元/盎司，涨幅0.58%。 上周五金价的回升主要是市场对美联储降息预期升温，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储 10月降息的预期为91.9%，12月降息预期更是高达98.9%。而紧张的地缘政治局势也是金价上涨的重要 支撑。 9月22日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价涨势又起，价格再次接近上周的高位。其中，周生生黄 金上涨8元，报价1090元/克，为今日的最高价金店。上海中国黄金继续维持999元/克的报价，还是最低 价金店。今日的金店高低价差已扩大至91元。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年9月22日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1084 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1085 | 元/克 | 7 ...