Core Insights - The national real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a focus on institutional reforms and revitalizing idle properties to mitigate risks and boost consumption in 2026 [1][6] Sales Performance - In 2025, the total sales area of new residential properties reached 88.101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% from the previous year, with residential sales area down by 9.2% [1] - The sales revenue for new residential properties was 839.37 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.6%, with residential sales revenue down by 13.0% [1][2] - The sales area and revenue for new residential properties in 2024 were 97.385 million square meters and 967.5 billion yuan, respectively, marking a year-on-year decline of 12.9% and 17.1% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales area and revenue is attributed to strict control over new supply, accelerated inventory reduction, and improved quality of new residential properties, indicating a shift towards a new balance in supply and demand [2] - As of the end of 2025, the inventory of unsold properties stood at 76.632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% from the previous year, with residential inventory rising by 2.8% [6] Price Trends - New home prices in 70 major cities continued to decline, with a notable drop in December 2025, while the number of cities with stable prices is increasing, suggesting a phase of deep negotiation between supply and demand [3][4] - In December 2025, the average price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities fell by 0.9%, but the decline was less than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4][5] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue facing inventory pressure, with a significant number of cities still experiencing high inventory levels, necessitating time for market clearing [6] - The trend of demand shifting from new homes to second-hand homes and rentals is becoming more pronounced, with policies aimed at controlling new supply and reducing inventory expected to stabilize prices and market expectations in 2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a phase of stabilization with potential for continued policy support. It recommends focusing on financially sound real estate companies [45]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown weakness, with a 3.5% decline in the Shenwan real estate index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.9 percentage points [11]. - New home transaction volume in 43 cities decreased by 33.3% year-on-year and 31.1% month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing a 38.9% year-on-year decline [17][21]. - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 cities remained stable, with a depletion cycle of 151.7 weeks [23]. - Land supply in 100 major cities decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while land transaction volume fell by 41.4% [28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan real estate sector fell by 3.5% during the week of January 12-16, with a trading volume of 51,869.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - Significant individual stock movements included notable gains for *ST Sunshine, Daming City, and Tibet City Investment, while Huaxia Happiness, ST Zhongdi, and China Wuyi saw significant declines [11]. Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate industry is 1,207.435 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1,173.183 billion yuan. The industry’s TTM price-to-earnings ratio stands at 60.1, compared to 14.2 for the CSI 300 [4]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policies include tax incentives for homeowners selling and repurchasing properties within a year, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [37]. - Companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group are highlighted as key players to watch in the development sector, while China International Trade and New City Holdings are noted in the commercial sector [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on high-quality real estate companies with stable operations, recommending stocks such as China Resources Land (1109.HK), Longfor Group (0960.HK), and Poly Property (6049.HK) for potential investment [45][46].

商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）1月17日，据人民银行官网，人民银行联合金融监管总局发布关于调整商业 用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策的通知，其中提到，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，适应我国 房地产市场供求关系的新变化，支持构建房地产发展新模式，现就商业用房购房贷款政策有关事项作出 通知。 人民银行各省级分行、金融监管总局各省级派出机构根据辖区各城市政府调控要求，按照因城施策原 则，在全国统一的最低首付款比例基础上，自主确定辖区各城市最低首付款比例下限。 ...

责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中国人民银行 国家金融监督管理总局关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策的通知 来源：沟通交流 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，适应我国房地产市场供求关系的新变化，支持构建房地产发展新 模式，现就商业用房购房贷款政策有关事项通知如下： 商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 中国人民银行各省级分行、国家金融监督管理总局各省级派出机构根据辖区各城市政府调控要求，按照 因城施策原则，在全国统一的最低首付款比例基础上，自主确定辖区各城市最低首付款比例下限。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中国人民银行 国家金融监督管理总局关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策的通知 来源：沟通交流 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，适应我国房地产市场供求关系的新变化，支持构建房地产发展新 模式，现就商业用房购房贷款政策有关事项通知如下： 商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 中国人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The land transaction scale is expected to rebound in December 2025, with a smaller year-on-year decline, as the traditional peak trading period approaches [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand - As of December 25, 2025, the land supply area is 66.74 million square meters, reflecting a 77% month-on-month decrease and a 26% year-on-year decrease [2] - The decline in year-on-year supply is expanding, with a 14 percentage point increase compared to the previous month [2] - Major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou have land listings, with Shanghai's land auction prices reaching 2.56 billion yuan for a plot in Pudong [2][3] Group 2: Market Activity - Nationally, the area of land sold through auctions reached 270 million square meters, a 190% month-on-month increase, but a 7% year-on-year decrease [7] - The total transaction amount for land sales is 634.1 billion yuan, up 153% month-on-month but down 15% year-on-year [7] - The average floor price across the country is 2365 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 13% month-on-month decrease [7] Group 3: Market Heat - The average premium rate for land sales in December is 2.1%, indicating a low-level decline [10] - High premium transactions still occur for quality plots, with notable sales in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where some plots sold at over 15% premium [10][12] - The land auction failure rate is 8%, remaining at a near-low level, with several cities experiencing unsuccessful bids due to uncertain sales prospects [14] Group 4: Key Land Transactions - The highest total price for a land transaction in December is 8.456 billion yuan for a plot in Beijing, with a premium of 0.4% [16] - In Wuhan, several plots were sold at a total price of 12.9 billion yuan, with prime locations near the Yangtze River [4][16] - The highest premium rate was recorded in Shenzhen, where a plot was sold at a 42% premium, totaling 3.2 billion yuan [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Ningxia Yinchuan Municipal Government has implemented measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, effective from the 13th [1] Group 1: Land Policy Adjustments - A dynamic adjustment mechanism for newly transferred commercial housing land has been established, linking land assessment prices to surrounding housing sales prices [1] - Land transfer fees can now be paid in installments, enhancing land utilization efficiency [1] - The policy clarifies conditions for land nature changes, subdivision transfers, phased development, and "mortgage transfer" [1] Group 2: Support for Families - Families with two children can receive an additional 200,000 yuan in housing fund loan limits, while families with three or more children can receive an additional 300,000 yuan [1] - The policy expands the eligibility for housing fund loans, including provisions for pre-marital loan usage and extending loan applications to direct relatives [1] - The loan term for both male and female employees has been extended by 5 years [1] Group 3: Loan Application and Usage - The policy allows for the conversion of commercial housing mortgage loans directly into housing fund loans [1] - The scope of housing fund usage has been broadened to include payment of housing transaction taxes [1]

每经记者｜刘颂辉 每经编辑｜程鹏 陈梦妤 "手里还有没签约的客户，抓紧邀约，跟客户宣贯到位，自己对自己的客户负责！"近日，社交平台流传一份天津市某楼盘的内部通知。 通知称，住建部门将统一对天津市新建商品房的销售价格进行管理，以响应房地产市场"止跌回稳"要求。 具体要求是：各家开发企业的成交价格上下浮动不超过备案价的10%，否则将无法开具商品房网签合同。 1月12日，每经记者以购房者的身份咨询天津市津南区、东丽区住建委，相关科室负责人表示，1月9日的确召集开发企业传达了相关会议精神，主要是为 了（防止）新房销售价格过快下跌。 价格浮动超过5%需申请 "接管理部门通知，天津市将统一对价格进行管理，各个区陆续宣贯。具体执行时间待定，管理部门强调就是近期。"1月9日下午，一份天津某楼盘的内部 通知在社交媒体传播。 通知称，如果价格浮动超过备案价的5%，还要向管理部门申请，且不一定批准。 每经记者从多家房企内部人士处获悉，天津市住建部门当日召集市场主要开发企业开会，并要求将消息传达到各个楼盘。 "收到通知了，我正好在给客户签约，因为客户走离婚手续，个人税费比较高，所以给的优惠点位超过了15%。"天津市东丽区某售楼处置业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with a notable drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions across major cities [4][37] - Recent government policies, such as talent attraction initiatives in Nanjing and housing loan optimizations in Shenyang, aim to stimulate demand in the real estate market [6][13] - The overall market performance shows a rebound, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 5.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 5.07%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.79%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.29% [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 2-8, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 19,373 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% [4][21] - The total area sold was 178.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 64.5% [4][21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,210 units, down 21% year-on-year and 6.9% month-on-month [37][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, land supply reached 2,258.2 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [5] - However, land transactions fell sharply, with a total area of 2,488.6 million square meters sold, down 62.2% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 3.53 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year decrease of 57.67% but a month-on-month increase of 411.59% [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to navigate market fluctuations effectively [6] - Property management companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Poly Property are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market recovery [6]

Group 1 - Vanke's executive vice president, Yu Liang, resigned due to reaching retirement age, effective immediately, with no disagreements with the board, indicating a smooth transition in management [1] - The company needs to expedite the selection of new board members to maintain governance stability and focus on risk mitigation and performance recovery during the industry recovery period [1] Group 2 - Country Garden announced the early cash repayment of three bonds, allowing them to resume trading, marking a significant step in their debt restructuring process [2] - Investors should monitor the company's debt management and operational recovery in line with industry trends [2] Group 3 - Rongqiao Group reached a debt extension agreement with China Everbright Bank, adjusting the maturity dates of several debts, reflecting the complexity of debt management in the current market [3] - The company must prioritize cash flow management and expedite debt negotiations to avoid further risks [3] Group 4 - Guangzhou R&F Properties reported overdue debts totaling 38.7 billion yuan, primarily due to unfulfilled obligations on various financial instruments [4] - The company is actively communicating with creditors and developing solutions to address the growing overdue debt issue [4] Group 5 - Nanjing's housing market saw a total of 130,000 transactions in 2025, with a stable market performance supported by government subsidies and promotional events [5] - The "buy new, sell old" policy effectively stimulated demand, contributing to a balanced market operation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the increase in production are putting downward pressure on prices, but the continuous inventory reduction and relatively low inventory levels provide support. In January, the inventory accumulation cycle begins, and attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory accumulation inflection point in late January. The cost side is divergent (iron ore is strong, while coking coal and coke are weak). The real estate demand continues to decline, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside potential. However, the anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing downside support. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical events, market sentiment is relatively cautious. The daily line on the disk has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and it is expected to consolidate in a weak and volatile manner [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The rebar futures main contract increased its open interest by 43,067 lots on Monday, with slightly higher trading volume than the previous trading day. The trading volume was 697,016 lots. During the day, it declined with increasing positions, reaching a low of 3097 yuan/ton, a high of 3135 yuan/ton, and closing at 3104 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.74% [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price to a certain extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 31, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons week - on - week to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.84% higher than the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, up 0.87 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 85,000 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, 44,000 tons less than the same period last year. This week's production continued to rise due to the marginal improvement in steel mill profitability, reduced incentive to cut production, and the resumption of some blast furnaces. The supply contraction situation was marginally alleviated, and subsequent pressure emerged [2] - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending December 31, the apparent consumption decreased by 22,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0044 million tons. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent demand had declined for two consecutive weeks. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, and the restocking pace was slow, mainly purchasing on demand. In the medium - to - long - term, demand was under pressure. The new construction area of real estate continued to decline, infrastructure provided some support but with limited increments, and steel consumption in the manufacturing industry was stable but could not change the overall weak situation [2] Inventory - Inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending December 31, the total inventory decreased by 122,200 tons week - on - week to 4.2203 million tons, declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Among them, the social inventory was 2.8266 million tons, down 115,300 tons week - on - week, declining for 12 consecutive weeks and reaching a three - year low. The steel mill inventory was 1.3937 million tons, slightly down 6900 tons, also at a three - year low, providing strong support. The inventory accumulation inflection point was expected to occur 1 - 2 weeks before the Spring Festival. The steel mill inventory changed from an increase to a decrease, and the social inventory continued to decline, indicating a reduction in inventory pressure in the circulation link [3] Macroeconomic - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city - specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." In general, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Cost - The risk of raw material price fluctuations increased. Coke prices had been lowered in four rounds, weakening cost support. Iron ore prices were strong, but inventory levels were high. Scrap steel prices were relatively stable, providing support for electric furnace costs [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low with continued reduction, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation and slower inventory reduction, accelerated resumption of blast furnace production, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, a decline in iron ore prices from high levels, weakening cost support, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]