Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has announced the addition of new designated warehouses and inspection institutions for log futures, enhancing the service quality for the timber industry [1] - After the additions, the number of designated warehouses for log futures will increase to 8, with a maximum standard warehouse receipt volume of 445,500 cubic meters and a daily shipping speed of 29,700 cubic meters [1] - The expansion aims to improve delivery efficiency and safety, providing better conditions for enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu, the main import and consumption areas for logs [1] Group 2 - Four designated inspection institutions will utilize a "machine + manual" measurement method for log inspection, significantly improving inspection speed and accuracy [2] - The DCE has organized eight simulation delivery sessions across various regions to ensure smooth delivery processes and has encouraged warehouses to standardize and mechanize delivery management [2] - The DCE is also conducting assessments of delivery capabilities and enhancing the functionality of delivery apps to bolster safety and efficiency [2] Group 3 - The log futures market is still in its early stages, and there is room for improvement in market maturity and industry understanding [3] - Timber companies are encouraged to familiarize themselves with futures market rules and engage in hedging and delivery activities to promote high-quality development of the log spot market [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the delivery methods and regulations for log futures contracts, including daily selection delivery and one-time delivery [1][2][3] - Daily selection delivery allows sellers to initiate delivery requests during the delivery month, with matching organized by the exchange, and settlement prices based on the closing price of the pairing day [1][2] - One-time delivery occurs after the last trading day, where all open contract holders are organized by the exchange for delivery, using a weighted average price from the last ten trading days [1][2] Group 2 - The standard warehouse receipt for logs is a factory warehouse receipt, which is canceled immediately after the transfer to the buyer on the settlement day [2] - The delivery area for log futures includes several provinces and municipalities, with Shandong Province as the benchmark delivery location, and specific delivery warehouses and locations established [3] - The exchange has set up seven designated delivery warehouses and seven designated truck delivery locations across various regions, including major log import ports and large traders [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. - The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there are significant differences in the market under the logic of subsequent delivery costs. - The main log contract reached around 792 yuan yesterday, and there is limited upward space at the current level. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis or short the far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On June 16, the prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 increased by 3.19%, 2.10%, and 2.09% respectively compared to June 13. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads increased by 8.0, while the 9 - 11 spread remained unchanged. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts decreased by 24.5, 16.5, and 16.5 respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 16 compared to June 13. The CFR prices of radiata pine and spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged [1]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.184 on June 16, with no change compared to June 15. The import theoretical cost was 777.66 yuan, a decrease of 0.35 yuan compared to June 15 [1]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In May, the port throughput was 195.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 13.20% compared to April. The number of departing ships decreased by 7.94% [1]. Inventory - **Weekly Inventory**: As of June 13, the total inventory of logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also increased [3]. Demand - **Weekly Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5% week - on - week to 5.98 million cubic meters as of June 13. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [3].

库存:主要港口库存 (周度) 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 期货和现货价格 品种 6月12日 6月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 原木2507 765.0 0.0 765.0 0.00% 原木2509 783.5 784.5 -1.0 -0.13% -2.0 -0.25% 原木2511 788.0 790.0 7-9价差 -18.5 -19.5 1.0 9-11价差 -4.5 -5.5 1.0 2.0 7-11价差 -25.0 -23.0 07合约基差 -25.0 -10.0 -15.0 09合约基差 -43.5 -34.5 -9.0 元/立方米 11合约基差 -40.0 -8.0 -48.0 -10 日照港3.9A小辐射松 720.0 -1.39% 710.0 日照港3.9A中辐射松 740 750 -10 -1.33% 日照港3.9A大辐射松 830 0 0.00% 830 -1.35% 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 730 -10 740 -1.30% 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 760 770 -10 太仓港 4A 大辐射松 0 0.00% 800 800 日照港云杉11.8 ...

Z0019556 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 期货和现货价格 | NIXTHANNIA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月10日 | 6669 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 765.0 | 771.0 | -6.0 | -0.78% | | | 原木2509 | 784.5 | 785.5 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 790.0 | 790.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 7-9价差 | -19.5 | -14.5 | -5.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -0.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -25.0 | -19.5 | -5.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -15.0 | -21.0 | 6.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -35.5 | 1.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -40.0 | -40.5 | 0.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating system [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating system [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions and market analysis for various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper close higher with a positive line. The spot copper price rose to 79,310 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong was 90 yuan. Traders are advised to focus on the US copper price. Short - position holders from the previous period should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss should be considered above 79,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rose, and the spot premium in East China slightly expanded to 90 yuan. The aluminum market continued to reduce inventory this week, maintaining a low - inventory state. The demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported volume. Shanghai aluminum tested the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan again in the oscillation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Cast aluminum alloy followed the rise of Shanghai aluminum, and the monthly spread structure was consistent with that of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai ADC12 quotation remained stable at 19,400 yuan. It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum may still decline during the off - season. The alumina spot has few transaction news recently, and the spot index remained stable around 3,300 yuan. After the industry profit is restored, the supply elasticity is large, and the domestic operating capacity has returned to over 90 million tons. The futures are expected to remain weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The Guinea ore price is stable at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi around 3,000 yuan. It is not advisable to short - sell due to the large futures discount [3] Zinc - The phased alleviation of tariff concerns in the Sino - US London economic and trade consultations led to short - position reduction, driving the rebound of Shanghai zinc. The average price of SMM 0 zinc was reported at 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium to the delivery - month contract changed to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. By the end of the trading session, the discount to the delivery - month contract was once as high as 185 yuan/ton. With only 3 trading days left until delivery, it is profitable to deliver goods to the warehouse. Attention should be paid to the change in the registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Fundamentally, the supply of ore has become looser, but the TC is generally at a low level. Shanghai zinc still has strong support around 21,500 yuan/ton. However, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is at a high level of 27.7 days, and the output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to 590,000 tons compared with the previous month. The consumption performance in the off - season is weak, and Shanghai zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rallies [4] Tin - Shanghai tin rose with a positive line, using the MA60 moving average as the boundary for morphological strength. The current tin price was 265,800 yuan, and the premium of the spot to the delivery - month contract was 510 yuan. The market expects the domestic smelter tin output to continue to decline month - on - month in May and June. Some short positions were reduced or shifted to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The overall market inventory remained stable at a high level, and the intermediate links increased inventory. The downstream replenishment and upstream inventory reduction continued, and the mentality of traders in the intermediate links changed positively, with the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continuing. The latest quotation of Australian ore was 607.5 US dollars, and the decline rate slowed down, indicating resistance at the ore end. The output of the mid - stream increased again, with a month - on - month increase of 7%. Technically, the decline of the lithium carbonate futures price slowed down, and the open interest indicated risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the core driving force of short - selling was delayed. It is recommended to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,560 yuan/ton, and the market trading was active. The spot price remained stable compared with the previous day. Driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang, the supply of industrial silicon in June is expected to increase month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises in June both increased month - on - month, but the monthly supply - demand balance estimate shows that industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory accumulation in June. In terms of the trading - floor performance, it is in a phased oscillatory adjustment driven by technical factors, and the short - cycle indicators show a large callback pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up at the current position, and attention should be paid to the resistance performance of the MA20 moving average above [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, and the market trading was average. The spot price remained stable. According to SMM, the latest production schedule of polysilicon in June was revised up to 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. However, the production schedules of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells both decreased, and the fundamental improvement was limited. In terms of the trading - floor performance, it is close to the lower support level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for a driving force [11]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The demand for logs is stable with a slight increase this week, but due to low prices from the foreign market in May, traders are more willing to take delivery, leading to expected port arrival pressure in June. The spot market is weak and stable, and the fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. The current futures price has rebounded, and as the 07 contract enters the delivery month, there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of delivery cost. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and as the main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, attention can be paid to the spread between months and participate in reverse spreads [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly on June 8, with increases of 0.46%, 0.25%, and 0.19% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts also changed, with increases of 1.5, 0.5, and 2.0 respectively. The basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign market quotes also remained stable [1]. - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost also increased slightly, with an increase of 0.73 yuan [1]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port direct - shipping volume in May increased by 39.0 (24.17%) compared to April, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships in the port increased by 8.0 (13.79%) compared to the previous period, reaching 66.0 [1]. Inventory - Weekly inventory in major ports: China's inventory decreased by 2.0 ( - 0.59%) to 339.00 million cubic meters. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.0 (1.06%) to 191.50 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 1.5 ( - 1.35%) to 111.98 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - Weekly average daily outbound volume: China's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.03 (0%) to 6.31 million cubic meters. Shandong's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.07 to 3.38 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's decreased by 0.01 to 2.28 million cubic meters [3].

2025年6月9日 曹剑兰 | ZOOJaREE | | --- | 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 持续。当前盘面价格反弹,07合约将进入交割月迎来首次交割,后续交割成本逻辑支 | | --- | | 撑下盘面或有分歧。建议单边观望为主,本月主力将移仓至09合约,可关注月差变 | | 化,反套参与。 | | 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 | | 兜贡声明 | | 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 | | 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 | | 这的意见并不够成所达品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者据比投资，风险自控。本报告音在发送给广发明朗特定客户及其他专业人士、版权归 | | 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发明货"。 | | 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | | 关注微 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures market supported by the delivery cost logic. Overall, the demand for logs has entered the traditional off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, due to the low ex - works prices in May, traders had a high willingness to take delivery, and it is expected that there will still be pressure on arrivals in June. The spot market is stable with a weakening trend, and the fundamental situation remains in a weak balance. Currently, the futures price is close to the phased bottom. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for single - side trading. The main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, and investors can pay attention to the changes in the inter - month spread and participate in reverse spreads [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on June 6 compared to June 4, with declines of 1.58%, 1.29%, and 1.08% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port shipping volume in April increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of major log ports in China decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters from May 23 to May 30, a decline of 0.58%. Inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.5 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.30%, while inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3.23% [2][3] Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China increased slightly by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. In Shandong, it increased by 0.11 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a decline of 3% [3]

Report Summary - The settlement price of the rebar 2505 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to weak demand and continuous profits at the production end [2][4]. - The settlement price of the hot - rolled coil 2505 contract was 3262 yuan/ton, also at a discount to the spot price, with the basis at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery [2][18]. Rebar 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Basis - The rebar 2505 contract settlement price was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount of 124 and 218 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. Weak demand and production - end profits led to short - selling in the futures market. The real - estate demand contraction affected terminal consumption, and there was hedging motivation due to good steel mill profits [2][4]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The total settlement volume was 57,300 tons, lower than expected and down from the previous year, at a moderately high level in recent years. The impact on the market was expected to be limited. Buyers were willing to take delivery due to low inventory and a strong basis, but their positions were scattered. Sellers were mainly production and trading enterprises for hedging and basis trading [6]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The rebar 5 - 10 spread remained low and stable, dragged down by real - estate demand. The 3 - month high - frequency data showed a large year - on - year decline in weekly demand. By May 15, the 5 - 10 spread was - 43 yuan/ton. Low inventory reduced delivery pressure, and arbitrage drove the transfer of warehouse receipts to the spot market, affecting the near - month contract price and the inter - delivery spread [14]. Hot - Rolled Coil 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Spot Basis - The hot - rolled coil 2505 contract settlement price was 3262 yuan/ton, at a discount of 18 and 68 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. The basis was at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery due to the phased premium structure, high production, and export expectation disturbances [18]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The settlement volume of the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract was 155,100 tons, an obvious increase from the HC2405 contract, still at a moderately high level in the past 10 years. The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu [22]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage structure. High production, trade - war - induced contraction in the cold - hot spread, and expectations of export and domestic - demand contraction led to the far - month contract being stronger. After entering the delivery month, positive Sino - US negotiations led to a small repair of the 5 - 10 spread, but it remained at a low level in recent years [30].