Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates steady, with market speculation about a long-term pause in rate cuts following hawkish comments from President Lagarde and a trade agreement between the EU and the US [1] - Investor expectations for a rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year have decreased to 10 basis points, with a 45% probability of a 25 basis point cut before December [1][2] - The ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged in the September meeting, but may reconsider further cuts if economic weakness is observed [1][2] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the Eurozone economy is showing unexpected resilience, with inflation hovering near the ECB's 2% target [2] - Unless upcoming inflation data and economic activity surveys show unexpected deterioration, the necessity for a rate cut on September 11 is low [2] - The ECB's latest economic forecasts have included considerations for further rate cuts, predicting that inflation may temporarily fall below the 2% target next year [2] Group 3 - The ECB may revisit monetary policy easing during meetings on October 30 and December 18, especially if US tariffs negatively impact Eurozone exports or geopolitical risks escalate [3] - The euro to dollar exchange rate showed support above 1.1580 and resistance below 1.1745, indicating potential for an upward trend if it stabilizes above 1.1680 [3] - Short-term resistance for the euro is identified between 1.1780 and 1.1785, with significant support between 1.1680 and 1.1685 [3]

Core Viewpoint - A significant increase in a key wage growth indicator in the Eurozone has made the European Central Bank (ECB) more cautious regarding further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Wage Growth - In the second quarter, negotiated wages increased by 3.95% year-on-year, up from 2.46% in the first quarter, but still below the peak of 5.4% reached in 2024 [1] - The ECB's confidence in stabilizing inflation at 2% relies on a slowdown in wage growth and a decrease in price increases in labor-intensive service sectors, which are currently close to 3% [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2% in September [1] - The ECB's tracking indicator for wages across 20 countries suggests that wage growth will significantly slow down by early next year [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，欧洲央行管委内格尔表示，进一步降息的门槛很高。 ...

Core Insights - Despite higher tariffs on exports to the U.S. due to the EU-U.S. trade agreement, the Eurozone private sector grew at its fastest pace in 15 months, with manufacturing ending a three-year contraction [1][2] Economic Indicators - The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.9 in July to 51.1 in August, surpassing analysts' expectations of 50.6 [1] - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 to 50.5, marking the first time since June 2022 that it has crossed above the growth threshold [2] - The Services PMI slightly decreased to 50.7 but remained above the growth line [2] Country-Specific Performance - Germany's Composite PMI rose to 50.9, exceeding market expectations of 50.2, while the Manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.9 to 49.9, nearing expansion territory for the first time since June 2022 [4] - The Manufacturing Output Index climbed to 52.6, a 41-month high, with new orders growing at the fastest rate since March 2022 [4] - France's Composite PMI unexpectedly increased from 47.4 to 49.8, although it still remains below the growth threshold [6] Trade and External Factors - Eurozone manufacturing foreign orders declined for the second consecutive month, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs [7] - The European Central Bank (ECB) President noted that the new tariffs are slightly higher than previous forecasts but still below more severe scenarios [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - Strong PMI data provides evidence of the Eurozone's resilience against various challenges, supporting the view that the ECB may not need to rush into further rate cuts [8] - Market expectations suggest that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2% in September [8]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.1644, down 0.06% from the previous close of 1.1651, indicating a stable but cautious market sentiment [1] - Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% in June, reversing the 0.3% decline in May, suggesting a recovery in consumer demand [1] - Strong domestic demand is becoming increasingly important for economic growth, potentially supporting growth in the second half of 2025 despite external challenges such as tariffs and a strong euro [1] Group 2 - The current trading range for the euro/dollar exchange rate is between 1.1455 and 1.1829, indicating a period of volatility without clear breakout directions [2] - The price movement is constrained by the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the market may continue to oscillate within this range until clearer market drivers emerge [2]

Group 1: Economic Activity and PMI Data - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI index rose slightly from 50.6 in June to 50.9 in July, still below the long-term average of 52.4, indicating ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone [1] - The Eurozone services PMI increased from 50.5 in June to 51.0 in July, but was below the market expectation of 51.2, reflecting a modest improvement in service sector activity [1] - Spain showed the strongest performance among major Eurozone economies, with a composite PMI rising from 52.1 in June to 54.7 in July, while France experienced a contraction with a PMI of 48.6 [1] Group 2: Employment and Business Confidence - Eurozone businesses increased employment for the fifth consecutive month in July, reaching the fastest growth rate in over a year, despite weak demand [2] - Business confidence declined for the first time since April, with optimism waning in both manufacturing and services sectors, leading to overall confidence falling below long-term averages [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cost pressures have decreased to the lowest level since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the service sector, while output price inflation slightly increased to a three-month high [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider further rate cuts in the second half of the year due to easing service sector inflation, despite many officials suggesting insufficient reasons for continued accommodative policies [3] - The recent EU-US trade agreement may negatively impact Eurozone exports and economic growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of the Eurozone's economic recovery [3]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is likely to persist due to a weak labor market, with disappointing non-farm employment data reinforcing market predictions for a rate cut in September [1] - Continuous low non-farm employment numbers below 50,000 for six months could signal an economic recession, leading to increased market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will cut rates in December instead of September, influenced by anticipated weak economic activity in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence and reliability of official economic data have intensified following President Trump's claims of data manipulation and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director [3][4] - The Korea Export-Import Bank forecasts a decline in South Korea's export value in Q3 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, projecting exports to reach approximately $167 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [3] - Analysts from Danske Bank expect the Bank of England to announce a rate cut in the upcoming decision, which may exert downward pressure on the British pound [4]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for a rate cut in December instead of September, reflecting concerns over economic activity in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - The adjustment in Barclays' forecast is attributed to weak economic activity in the latter half of the year, influenced by ongoing trade policy challenges and the earlier-than-expected imports from the U.S. [1] Trade and Inflation - By December, clearer signals regarding trade headwinds are expected, which may alleviate concerns about supply chain disruptions impacting inflation [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Confidence in the 2026 fiscal plan not reigniting inflationary pressures is likely to support a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Barclays anticipates that the terminal deposit rate of the ECB will remain at 1.75% by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation rate remained stable at 2.0% in July, confirming the European Central Bank's (ECB) moderate view on prices and supporting its decision to maintain interest rates after significant cuts [1] - Core inflation rate also held steady at 2.3%, with service prices slightly slowing but offset by a rebound in goods inflation [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "favorable position" regarding inflation and will not react to minor deviations from the target [1] Group 2 - Eurozone economic activity in Q2 showed better-than-expected growth, with July manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8, the highest level since July 2021 [2] - Industrial output increased for the fifth consecutive month, although the output index fell to 50.6, the lowest in four months [2] - Analysts noted that a framework trade agreement between the US and Europe could help reduce uncertainty, supporting the ongoing recovery in manufacturing [2] Group 3 - Future inflation may remain above ECB's expectations, indicating a need for caution regarding the re-pricing of ECB rate cut expectations [3] - The likelihood of further ECB rate cuts has decreased, with the core annual inflation rate holding at 2.3% and overall inflation expected to remain around 2% by year-end [3]

Core Viewpoint - The money market has increased bets on a rate cut by the European Central Bank, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut by March 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a rate cut reflects market sentiment regarding future economic conditions in the Eurozone [1] - The projected timeline for the rate cut indicates a significant shift in monetary policy expectations [1]