Core Viewpoint - The money market has increased bets on a rate cut by the European Central Bank, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut by March 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a rate cut reflects market sentiment regarding future economic conditions in the Eurozone [1] - The projected timeline for the rate cut indicates a significant shift in monetary policy expectations [1]

Group 1 - Traders are positioning through options strategies in anticipation of a European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut, which could yield significant returns if the policy is implemented in the coming months [1] - Large bets have been placed this week related to options linked to the three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor), indicating strong market interest in potential rate changes [1] - If the ECB lowers the benchmark rate from the current 2% to 1.5% by December and maintains it until March next year, related investments could generate over €25 million (approximately $28.5 million) in profit, with a cost of only about €2 million [1] Group 2 - The ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that after a cumulative 200 basis points cut to the deposit rate within a year, policymakers may enter an observation period, yet the market still sees a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut by year-end [1] - The monetary market's expectations for the interest rate path have shown volatility, with a previous prediction of a 1.5% rate by year-end shifting due to recent inflation indicators in parts of France and Germany [4] - A Bloomberg survey revealed that 20% of economists expect the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by the end of 2025, while others are split between maintaining the rate at 2% or reducing it by 25 basis points to 1.75%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in rate expectations [4]

巴克莱不再预期欧洲央行将在9月会议上降息；重申今年12月将降息25个基点的预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong labor market in the Eurozone is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from lowering interest rates in September [1] Labor Market Summary - As of the end of Q2, the Eurozone saw a reduction of over 60,000 unemployed individuals, keeping the unemployment rate at a historical low of 6.2% [1] - This strong labor market may sustain robust wage growth, potentially increasing core inflation pressures [1] Wage Growth Summary - Wage growth is expected to remain strong but not at a level that would cause concern for European Central Bank officials, thus not hindering the possibility of a rate cut in September [1]

智通财经7月31日电，货币市场目前预计欧洲央行到12月降息25个基点的可能性低于50%。 ...

货币市场目前预计欧洲央行到12月降息25个基点的可能性低于50%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the US and EU increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not lower interest rates further, potentially delaying any rate cuts until December or maintaining rates throughout 2025 [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The US-EU trade agreement may slightly raise the forecasts for growth and inflation in the Eurozone according to Abn Amro [1] - Prior to the trade agreement, Abn Amro had predicted that the ECB would ultimately lower rates in December [1] Group 2: ECB Rate Decisions - The ECB may wait until December to cut rates or could keep rates unchanged for the entirety of 2025 [1] - The balance of risks now leans towards the possibility that a rate cut may not occur at all [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again unless there is a significant economic turnaround, as stated by Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's governing council [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates last week as expected, providing a slightly optimistic assessment of the Eurozone economy, which led investors to reduce bets on further easing [1] - Kazimir indicated that he does not foresee any major situations that would compel immediate action in September, unless there are signs of a significant labor market collapse [1] Group 2 - A recent trade agreement between the EU and the US is seen as a positive signal, reducing uncertainty for businesses, but its impact on inflation remains unclear [1] - Kazimir expressed that current inflation rates are unlikely to fall below the ECB's 2% target as they did in the decade before the pandemic [1] - Predictions suggest that inflation will drop below 2% next year and will not recover until 2027, raising concerns among some central bank governors about the potential for persistently weak price growth [2] - Kazimir does not see a lasting threat of inflation remaining below the target, suggesting that any such situation in the coming year should be temporary [2]

金十数据7月28日讯，德意志银行分析师Mark Wall表示，美欧贸易协议降低了欧洲央行进一步降息的必 要性。因为协议达成后，欧元区贸易政策的不确定性下降，欧洲央行进一步降息的压力将会减小。欧元 区货币市场预计欧洲央行今年12月降息的可能性不到60%，欧洲央行9月或10月降息的可能性很小。 德银：美欧贸易协定降低了欧洲央行降息的必要性 ...

智通财经7月28日电，货币市场预计欧洲央行到12月有65%的可能性降息25个基点，到2026年3月降息25 个基点的可能性为84%。 ...