欧央行官员释放降息信号：视经济增长与通胀而定 金十数据7月11日讯，欧洲央行执委帕内塔表示，如果经济扩张不及预期，并过度拖累通胀，欧洲央行 应进一步降息。他同时强调，决策者将在政策制定上保持灵活和务实的态度，根据最新信息及其对通胀 前景的影响，逐次会议做出判断。市场目前普遍预期欧洲央行将暂时停止降息步伐。原因之一是欧美贸 易关系仍不明朗，而俄乌和中东冲突也加剧了经济前景的不确定性。尽管如此，投资者仍押注年底前欧 洲央行还将再降息一次。帕内塔重申了央行此前的说法："我们目前处于一个可以谨慎权衡下一步行动 的位置。" ...

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔称，欧洲央行进一步降息的门槛非常高。 ...

欧洲央行管委Nagel：欧洲央行既不应计划也不应排除进一步降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Centeno, stated that the timing and extent of further interest rate cuts are difficult to determine [1] Group 1 - The ECB is currently facing challenges in predicting future interest rate adjustments [1] - Centeno emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the economic environment, which complicates decision-making regarding rate cuts [1] - The comments reflect ongoing discussions within the ECB about monetary policy direction in response to economic conditions [1]

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should not be overly concerned if inflation temporarily falls below 2% and there is no urgency for the next interest rate cut [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member and German Bundesbank President Nagel emphasizes that a short-term dip in inflation below 2% does not warrant panic [1] - Nagel indicates that there is no immediate need to rush into the next rate cut, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone services sector showed a recovery in June after a brief contraction in May, with the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rising from 49.7 in May to 50.5 in June, indicating a return to growth albeit at a weak pace [1] - The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, increased from 50.2 to 50.6, marking a three-month high, but still reflects only moderate growth [1] - New orders in the Eurozone have declined for the 13th consecutive month, although the rate of contraction has slowed to a slight level of 49.7 [1] Group 2 - The services sector confidence index reached its highest level in 2025, recovering from a 29-month low in April, yet remains below the long-term trend [2] - Input cost inflation for the services sector dropped to a seven-month low, but sales prices increased at the fastest rate in three months, complicating the inflation outlook despite recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2] - More than half of economists surveyed expect the European Central Bank to cut rates again in September after a year-long easing cycle [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the strong euro may have negative consequences, with the euro rising 14% to 1.18 against the dollar, contrary to expectations of parity this year [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that while the current exchange rate of 1.18 is manageable, a rise above 1.20 would complicate matters significantly [2] - The strong euro is lowering import prices, which could dampen inflation, while increasing export costs, impacting the trade-dependent European economy amid trade tensions with the US [2] Group 2 - Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at PIMCO, warned that if the euro reaches 1.25 against the dollar, the ECB may need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mitigate inflation and economic impacts [3] - The ECB has already halved interest rates to 2% since June 2024, but the Federal Reserve's rates remain significantly higher, leading to unusual capital flows towards Europe [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the dollar is facing issues, prompting investors to seek alternatives, although she did not directly address the impact on monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns are rising within the ECB as inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% mid-term target in June, with expectations of a drop to 1.6% next year [4] - Pooja Kumra from TD Securities warned that a strong euro combined with US tariffs could lead the eurozone back into a deflationary environment similar to the 2010s [4] - There is a dilemma for the ECB regarding currency intervention, as unilateral actions could backfire, and a prominent decision-maker noted that global central banks generally avoid such interventions [4] Group 4 - Some investors remain optimistic, with Mike Riddell from Fidelity International stating that the EU's significant trade surplus supports the euro's strength, suggesting that policymakers' complaints about the strong euro are unfounded [4] - Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic remarked that the current exchange rate is not abnormal and has been stable compared to historical levels since the euro's inception [4]

| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation is performing as expected, with an anticipated rise in summer inflation data and a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, but there is a divergence among officials regarding future rate paths, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two rate cuts this year [1] - Powell emphasized the need to observe summer data before making decisions, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on inflation [1] Group 2 - Despite pressure from Trump for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet lowered rates this year, primarily to assess whether tariff-induced price increases will lead to persistent inflation [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, and the ECB is prepared to address complex economic situations [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the direction of interest rates is downward, attributing current inflation to administrative pricing factors amid signs of economic and labor market weakness [2]