Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an upward trend in a volatile manner. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are signs of reduction. The demand is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and slow infrastructure investment growth. Considering the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the asphalt futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week - on - week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons (0.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries like Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, which will reduce asphalt production, but it remains at a high level [1]. - **Demand**: After the National Day holiday, the national asphalt shipment increased by 14.48% week - on - week to 253,300 tons, at a neutral - low level. The downstream construction rate of asphalt is mostly stable, with the road asphalt construction rate remaining flat at 29.0% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, but there are temperature drops in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and capital constraints, which affect asphalt demand [1]. - **Recommendation**: Due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the asphalt futures market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.95% to 3,249 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,157 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,249 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 4,829 to 186,849 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract dropped to 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The asphalt开工率 in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week - on - week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [4]. - **Investment Data**: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, a slight improvement from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - **Downstream Construction**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream construction rate of asphalt was mostly stable, with the road asphalt construction rate remaining flat at 29.0% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [1][4]. - **Social Financing**: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to the high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% compared with the week of October 10, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].

【冠通期货研究报告】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点至35.8%，较去年同期高了8.0个百分点，处于近 年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减 幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于29.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，国庆假 期归来，全国出货量环比增加14.48%至25.33万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继 续上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。无棣鑫岳等炼厂有检修计划，沥青产量将有所减少，但仍 处高位。北方多地项目赶工，只是个别地区降温明显，南方降雨增加，另外，资金端制约，市场谨 慎，影响沥青需求。近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋商，原油价格波动或加大，加上山东地区沥 青基差走强至高位，建议沥青期价离场观望。 【期现行情】 发布日期：2025年10月21日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 沥青日报：震荡运行 【基本面跟踪】 基本面上看，供应端，山东及华东地区个别主营炼厂间歇生产，沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点 至3 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, with a short - term recommendation to stay on the sidelines [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand weakness pattern of asphalt continues. After the sharp drop in oil prices, refinery profits are relatively attractive, and the supply side may have greater elasticity. In terms of demand, affected by cold air in the north, the temperature has dropped significantly, the rigid demand for asphalt is weak overall, and there is a lack of positive driving factors in the market. Short - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On the afternoon of October 20th, the closing price of the main BU2601 asphalt futures contract was 3141 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 0.01%. The open interest was 167,705 lots, a net increase of 14,182 lots compared to the previous period, and the trading volume was 160,007 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots compared to the previous period [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3506 - 4086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3300 - 3670 yuan/ton; South China: 3350 - 3550 yuan/ton; East China: 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to fall yesterday, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1] - Crude oil and asphalt futures continued to be weak, which had a negative impact on the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, short - term recommendation to stay on the sidelines [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unspecified Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Demand improvement is limited, and the average spot price continues to decline [1] - Although some northern regions' weather cleared up and road projects resumed construction, the overall demand for asphalt increased minimally, and the market has a weak outlook on future demand. The low - level oscillation of asphalt futures also negatively affects the spot market sentiment. Considering the increased macro - risks, the volatility of the crude oil end may significantly increase, disturbing the asphalt market. Short - term caution is advised [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 13, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3302 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton or 1.32% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 103,287 lots, a decrease of 4,913 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 109,080 lots, a decrease of 44,528 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3706 - 4086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3400 - 3720 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3430 - 3490 yuan/ton in South China, and 3510 - 3600 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in the Northeast, North China, and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the strategy for the asphalt market is "oscillating weakly" [2]. 2) Core View - The asphalt market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with local supply growth outpacing demand. The market sentiment is weak due to factors such as typhoon weather suppressing demand and limited production growth due to constraints on small - and medium - sized refineries. The asphalt futures market shows a downward trend, and the spot prices vary by region. Overall, the asphalt fundamentals are average, and the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. 3) Summary by Content Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the closing price of the main BU2511 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3401 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 236,341 lots, an increase of 4,241 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,401 lots, a decrease of 12,441 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3756 - 4086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3480 - 3770 yuan/ton; South China 3470 - 3540 yuan/ton; East China 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: With the decline in oil prices, refinery profits have marginally recovered, and the asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. However, due to factors such as limited crude oil quotas and a decline in the consumption tax deduction ratio for small - and medium - sized refineries, the overall production growth of asphalt is limited. In terms of demand, since September, affected by funds and weather, the improvement in terminal consumption has been limited, and the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. There are regional differences, with the rush - construction demand in the northern region providing some support, while the demand in the southern region is weaker, and the typhoon weather this week has created new obstacles [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The strategy for unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly" [2]. - **Other Strategies**: There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Graphs - The report includes various graphs related to asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of futures, weekly production of domestic asphalt and production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social inventories) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, while demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to price adjustments [1] Supply and Demand - Supply has increased as some refineries in North China resume asphalt production - Demand has not exceeded expectations during the peak season due to rainfall and funding shortages - Inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and reduced pressure, while social inventories are being depleted [1] Price Movements - Asphalt prices have seen a decline of 10 to 100 CNY/ton in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan-Chongqing, while prices in North China have increased by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The main refineries in the Yangtze River Delta have reduced transportation prices by 100 CNY/ton, and some brands in Shandong have lowered prices, leading to a drop in mainstream transaction prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's increase in production has led to a decrease in crude oil costs, which may influence asphalt pricing [1] - The current peak season has not shown extraordinary performance, but stabilization in crude oil prices may allow for bullish positioning in the future [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, conditions for construction are expected to improve as autumn approaches, despite the anticipated rainfall in the short term - The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns over potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela [1] - The valuation of asphalt is currently high compared to crude oil, with a weakening trend in the crack spread [1]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - The report is an asphalt daily report dated September 5, 2025 [1][2] - The research team includes Li Jie (crude oil and asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (carbon market and industrial silicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the futures market, BU2510 opened at 3530 yuan/ton, closed at 3468 yuan/ton, with a high of 3533 yuan/ton, a low of 3463 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.14%, and a trading volume of 12.81 million lots. BU2511 opened at 3516 yuan/ton, closed at 3442 yuan/ton, with a high of 3522 yuan/ton, a low of 3439 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.71%, and a trading volume of 18.95 million lots [6] - In the spot market, prices in North and South China slightly increased, prices in Shandong decreased, and prices in other regions were generally stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices limited the upside of asphalt spot prices [6] - On the supply side, some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil without a clear plan to resume asphalt production. However, due to the expected increase in asphalt output from Hebei Xinhai at the end of the month and the planned resumption of asphalt production by Ningbo Keyuan around the 28th, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to rebound [6] - On the demand side, the weather cleared up in South China, and with the boost of market sentiment, the trading atmosphere and the shipment volume of key storage areas improved to some extent [6] - Pay attention to the implementation of demand. Oil prices are rising due to geopolitical factors, and arbitrage should be put on hold for now [6] Group 3: Industry News - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3490 - 3550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Sinopec's Maoming and Guangzhou raised their trucking settlement prices by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, driving up the high - end prices in the South China market. However, today's decline in the asphalt futures price led some spot - futures traders to sell near - month contracts, and the spot prices of social inventories slightly decreased. The market atmosphere was mainly wait - and - see [7] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3490 - 3820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in international oil prices led to a drop in asphalt futures prices, weakening the spot market atmosphere. Some refineries and traders lowered their quotes, driving down the prices in the Shandong market. In the short term, Dongming Petrochemical and Jincheng Petrochemical have plans to switch to asphalt production, increasing local resource supply and leaving asphalt prices without support [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources for various figures (including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts) are wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the asphalt futures will fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate and an expected increase in production in September. The demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and investment data. The cost - side support of asphalt is limited due to the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The operation strategy is range operation. The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons or 11.3% month - on - month and an increase of 683,000 tons or 34.1% year - on - year. The start - up rates of downstream industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month. The national asphalt shipments increased by 11.17% to 263,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The resumption of oil extraction in Venezuela by Chevron may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. There are factors both promoting and restricting asphalt demand, and the cost - side support of asphalt is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 1.17% to 3,551 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 3,547 yuan/ton and the highest price at 3,582 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 3,747 to 105,860 lots [2]. - In the basis market, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract fell to - 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month due to the shutdown or conversion to residue production of some devices. The start - up rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data shows that from January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased to - 2.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to 3.2% [4]. - As of the week of August 29, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. As of the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%; the M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; and the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The acceleration of government bond issuance was the main reason for the increase in the growth rate of the social financing scale [4]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week of August 22, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of oil is slightly stronger, while the crack spread of asphalt is declining [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 increased by 0.69% and 0.52% respectively during the day and 0.43% during the night session. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 1,274 lots, while that of BU2510 increased by 16,086 lots. The open interest of BU2509 decreased by 2,654 lots, and that of BU2510 decreased by 3,045 lots. The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt remained unchanged at 72,650 lots [1] - **Spot Market**: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta remained unchanged at 3,720 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate increased by 1.31% to 36.92%, and the refinery inventory rate increased by 2.02% to 27.81% [1] - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 34 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton, the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 20 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton [1] 2. Market Information - In September 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries is 1.557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,000 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 467,000 tons (42.9%) [15] - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 391,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the Northwest region increased [15] - From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% [15] - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a slight decline, reflecting broader market sentiments influenced by geopolitical developments and weather conditions [1]. Market Performance - As of the report, the main asphalt futures contract decreased by 0.75%, settling at 3448.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt spot prices in various regions, including Northeast, North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing, have shown a downward trend, while other areas remain stable [1]. Geopolitical Influences - Recent meetings between the U.S. and Russia were productive but did not result in new agreements, with President Trump refraining from imposing further sanctions on Russia [1]. - The U.S.-Ukraine discussions are ongoing, with potential territorial exchanges being considered [1]. - Hamas has confirmed a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which may also impact market sentiments [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The typhoon "Yangliu" has caused intermittent rainfall, affecting demand in certain provinces, leading to a weak market outlook [1]. - Despite a temporary decline in overall domestic asphalt supply and a slight increase in demand in northern regions, downstream purchasing remains low, lacking significant positive support [1]. - Competition among brands persists, particularly in southern regions where weather conditions have hindered demand [1]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the positive developments in U.S.-Russia talks and the significant downward pressure on crude oil prices will likely weaken asphalt costs, indicating a continued weak and volatile market for asphalt [1].