Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, while demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to price adjustments [1] Supply and Demand - Supply has increased as some refineries in North China resume asphalt production - Demand has not exceeded expectations during the peak season due to rainfall and funding shortages - Inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and reduced pressure, while social inventories are being depleted [1] Price Movements - Asphalt prices have seen a decline of 10 to 100 CNY/ton in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan-Chongqing, while prices in North China have increased by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The main refineries in the Yangtze River Delta have reduced transportation prices by 100 CNY/ton, and some brands in Shandong have lowered prices, leading to a drop in mainstream transaction prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's increase in production has led to a decrease in crude oil costs, which may influence asphalt pricing [1] - The current peak season has not shown extraordinary performance, but stabilization in crude oil prices may allow for bullish positioning in the future [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, conditions for construction are expected to improve as autumn approaches, despite the anticipated rainfall in the short term - The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns over potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela [1] - The valuation of asphalt is currently high compared to crude oil, with a weakening trend in the crack spread [1]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, but demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to limited price increases for the remainder of the year [1] Supply and Demand - Overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while demand has not effectively released due to adverse weather and financial constraints [1] - Inventory structure has improved with stable factory inventories and reduced social inventories, driven by essential and speculative demand [1] Price Dynamics - Asphalt prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest regions have decreased by 10 to 100 yuan per ton, while North China saw a price increase of 10 yuan per ton [1] - The price of asphalt is currently lower in South China due to restrictions from oil quotas and consumption taxes, despite the region being affected by typhoons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see only one more price increase opportunity this year, as the demand peak has not exceeded expectations [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC's continued production increases, leading to lower costs for asphalt [1] - The upcoming autumn construction conditions are anticipated to improve, but frequent rainfall may hinder demand [1] Trading and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt is relatively high compared to crude oil, with a weakening crack spread [1] - Short-term trading strategies may consider long positions after crude oil stabilizes, despite the current market showing signs of adjustment [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, asphalt production increased slightly, and terminal demand recovered seasonally. Some refineries fulfilled contracts at the end of the month, boosting overall shipments. However, demand recovery was slow amidst increased production, leading to inventory accumulation. With rising and stabilizing temperatures in the north and the absence of the rainy season in the south, road construction conditions have improved, and demand is expected to continue rising under the catch - up construction expectations in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan. Currently, the asphalt crack spread is at a high level, with limited upside potential. It may fluctuate under the continuous rebound of crude oil. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference support for BU2506 is 3000, and the pressure is 3600 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Profit**: The asphalt crack spread decreased. The profit of independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased, while that of major refineries increased. The production profit of asphalt decreased [4][6][8]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of both independent and major refineries slightly decreased. However, the stable production of Xinjiang Tianze, Qilu Petrochemical, CNOOC Sichuan, and Yunnan Petrochemical, along with the resumption of asphalt production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Henan Fengli, increased the overall capacity utilization and production [4][8][19]. - **Production**: As of the 16th, the Longzhong petroleum asphalt operating rate was 28.7%, a 4% increase from the previous period. The large - sample production was 492,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton (2.7%) increase [19]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume increased, mainly in Shandong. The shipment volume of 54 samples reached 367,100 tons, a 14.6% increase. Shandong's shipment volume increased significantly due to the resumption of asphalt production at Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and the fulfillment of contracts by some refineries. In contrast, the shipment volume in the Northeast decreased significantly due to the impact of falling international oil prices on downstream purchasing enthusiasm [19]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rates of downstream rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes remained flat at 23.33%, 20%, and 32% respectively. Currently, the operating rates of various modified asphalts have basically returned to seasonal levels but are still relatively low compared to historical periods. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt plants was 6.4%, a 1.1% increase. The resumption of work in the modified asphalt industry accelerated intermittently, especially in the north where good weather boosted production enthusiasm, while the south showed a slow increase [33]. Inventory - The weekly factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory all increased. As of the 14th, the inventory of 54 Longzhong asphalt factories was 917,000 tons, a 0.8% (7500 - ton) increase. Except for Shandong, inventories increased in all regions, with the largest increase in the Northeast due to slow downstream demand. The inventory of 76 social warehouses was 1.393 million tons, a 1.2% (16,000 - ton) increase, mainly in Central China due to concentrated stocking by some traders [22].