Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.08% and a historical percentile of 24.70% over the past 3 years [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Group 4: Core Views - Due to news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and US sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen recently. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments are not affected. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand in the spot market remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage remains unsolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. Recently, crude oil has rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand. In the long - term, northern demand will end as the temperature drops, while southern demand may increase after the rain decreases. Currently, the peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Due to recent external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the resistance level. It is necessary to pay attention to OPEC's latest meeting resolution and whether the Middle East OSP quote will be lowered as expected [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela [6] - Refineries in Shandong (Shengxing and Lanqiao) started maintenance and stopped asphalt production [6] - The tariff confrontation between China and the US is expected to ease [6] - The US cancelled the "Trump - Putin meeting" and imposed more sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting two major Russian oil giants. Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities, and the US purchased strategic oil reserves [7] Group 6: Bearish Factors - OPEC continued to increase production [7] Group 7: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day and 120 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/day and 90 yuan/week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Basis - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/day and 71 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot 12 - contract basis was 216 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 49 yuan/week; the North China spot 12 - contract basis was - 4 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/day and 41 yuan/week; the South China spot 12 - contract basis was 196 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 99 yuan/week [8] Cracking Spread - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 104.2694 yuan/barrel, down 6.9316 yuan/day and 13.607 yuan/week; the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 106.6955 yuan/barrel, down 1.7328 yuan/day and 2.3432 yuan/week [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Affected by news that the US may launch a military strike on Venezuela, both crude oil and asphalt prices have risen recently. As Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refineries' oil use, the market is worried about supply disruptions. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments have not been substantially affected [3]. - Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has changed little. Due to the National Day holiday, demand is weak, with the market mainly consuming social inventories. The short - term peak season has not exceeded expectations. Inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure refinery inventories and declining social inventories [3]. - Issues such as raw material shortages and tight heavy oil supplies have not been substantially alleviated, so the asphalt crack spread remains high. In the future, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production [3]. - The short - term peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations. With increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels to short after the price rises [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.49% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the inventory can be hedged by shorting the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. Additionally, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 call option at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, 50% of the inventory can be hedged by buying the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. Also, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 put option at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3. Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Asphalt refinery inventory pressure is low, providing a basis for price support from manufacturers [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an anti - cut - throat competition atmosphere, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized resisting disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [7]. Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased [12]. - OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November [12]. - The escalation of US - China tariffs has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [12]. 4. Price and Basis Data - On October 24, 2025, the spot prices of asphalt in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3340 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3340 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, - 70 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [8]. - The basis of Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot for the 12 - contract asphalt on October 24, 2025, was 25 yuan/ton, 155 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 85 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1 and weekly changes of - 155 yuan/ton, - 145 yuan/ton, - 185 yuan/ton, and - 155 yuan/ton [8]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 113.8054 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 35.9912 yuan/barrel. The crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent crude oil was 106.7006 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of 3.8123 yuan/barrel and a weekly change of - 0.6403 yuan/barrel [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better - than - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances have increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels after the price rises to arrange short positions. The supply of asphalt remains stable, the demand is weak due to weather and other factors, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and the South China region is still the price depression [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.25%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 15.91% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short - sell asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The news of a possible US military strike on Venezuela has led to a rise in crude oil and asphalt prices. Since Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refinery feedstock, the market is worried about raw material supply disruptions. However, the accuracy of the news needs to be verified by tracking Venezuelan crude oil shipments and China's imports [3]. - The refinery's production is stable, and the overall asphalt supply has little change. The demand is weak after the National Day holiday, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure factory inventories and a declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage has not been fundamentally resolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production. The price of crude oil has dropped rapidly due to the escalation of Sino - US tariffs. The South China region remains the price depression due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [3]. 3.4利多解读 - The pressure on asphalt factory inventories is low, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an atmosphere of anti - cut - throat competition, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to resist disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [6]. 3.5利空解读 - The escalation of US tariffs on China has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [7]. - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil and the continued production increase by OPEC+ in November are negative factors for asphalt prices [12]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On October 22, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3330 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous day, the prices in Shandong and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton, 46 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous day [7]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spread of Shandong spot to Brent decreased by 1.7329 yuan/barrel compared with the previous day, while the cracking spread of the futures main contract to Brent increased by 15.9425 yuan/barrel [7].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, while demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to price adjustments [1] Supply and Demand - Supply has increased as some refineries in North China resume asphalt production - Demand has not exceeded expectations during the peak season due to rainfall and funding shortages - Inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and reduced pressure, while social inventories are being depleted [1] Price Movements - Asphalt prices have seen a decline of 10 to 100 CNY/ton in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan-Chongqing, while prices in North China have increased by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The main refineries in the Yangtze River Delta have reduced transportation prices by 100 CNY/ton, and some brands in Shandong have lowered prices, leading to a drop in mainstream transaction prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's increase in production has led to a decrease in crude oil costs, which may influence asphalt pricing [1] - The current peak season has not shown extraordinary performance, but stabilization in crude oil prices may allow for bullish positioning in the future [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, conditions for construction are expected to improve as autumn approaches, despite the anticipated rainfall in the short term - The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns over potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela [1] - The valuation of asphalt is currently high compared to crude oil, with a weakening trend in the crack spread [1]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, but demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to limited price increases for the remainder of the year [1] Supply and Demand - Overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while demand has not effectively released due to adverse weather and financial constraints [1] - Inventory structure has improved with stable factory inventories and reduced social inventories, driven by essential and speculative demand [1] Price Dynamics - Asphalt prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest regions have decreased by 10 to 100 yuan per ton, while North China saw a price increase of 10 yuan per ton [1] - The price of asphalt is currently lower in South China due to restrictions from oil quotas and consumption taxes, despite the region being affected by typhoons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see only one more price increase opportunity this year, as the demand peak has not exceeded expectations [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC's continued production increases, leading to lower costs for asphalt [1] - The upcoming autumn construction conditions are anticipated to improve, but frequent rainfall may hinder demand [1] Trading and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt is relatively high compared to crude oil, with a weakening crack spread [1] - Short-term trading strategies may consider long positions after crude oil stabilizes, despite the current market showing signs of adjustment [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, asphalt production increased slightly, and terminal demand recovered seasonally. Some refineries fulfilled contracts at the end of the month, boosting overall shipments. However, demand recovery was slow amidst increased production, leading to inventory accumulation. With rising and stabilizing temperatures in the north and the absence of the rainy season in the south, road construction conditions have improved, and demand is expected to continue rising under the catch - up construction expectations in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan. Currently, the asphalt crack spread is at a high level, with limited upside potential. It may fluctuate under the continuous rebound of crude oil. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference support for BU2506 is 3000, and the pressure is 3600 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Profit**: The asphalt crack spread decreased. The profit of independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased, while that of major refineries increased. The production profit of asphalt decreased [4][6][8]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of both independent and major refineries slightly decreased. However, the stable production of Xinjiang Tianze, Qilu Petrochemical, CNOOC Sichuan, and Yunnan Petrochemical, along with the resumption of asphalt production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Henan Fengli, increased the overall capacity utilization and production [4][8][19]. - **Production**: As of the 16th, the Longzhong petroleum asphalt operating rate was 28.7%, a 4% increase from the previous period. The large - sample production was 492,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton (2.7%) increase [19]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume increased, mainly in Shandong. The shipment volume of 54 samples reached 367,100 tons, a 14.6% increase. Shandong's shipment volume increased significantly due to the resumption of asphalt production at Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and the fulfillment of contracts by some refineries. In contrast, the shipment volume in the Northeast decreased significantly due to the impact of falling international oil prices on downstream purchasing enthusiasm [19]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rates of downstream rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes remained flat at 23.33%, 20%, and 32% respectively. Currently, the operating rates of various modified asphalts have basically returned to seasonal levels but are still relatively low compared to historical periods. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt plants was 6.4%, a 1.1% increase. The resumption of work in the modified asphalt industry accelerated intermittently, especially in the north where good weather boosted production enthusiasm, while the south showed a slow increase [33]. Inventory - The weekly factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory all increased. As of the 14th, the inventory of 54 Longzhong asphalt factories was 917,000 tons, a 0.8% (7500 - ton) increase. Except for Shandong, inventories increased in all regions, with the largest increase in the Northeast due to slow downstream demand. The inventory of 76 social warehouses was 1.393 million tons, a 1.2% (16,000 - ton) increase, mainly in Central China due to concentrated stocking by some traders [22].