Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The actual supply pressure may be less than last year. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China, and many are stocking up there. New - grain sales are fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2601 contract rebounded and was adjusted under pressure near 2190. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The basis of corn strengthened slightly, and the futures price was at a discount. The starch main 2601 contract was slightly adjusted, and the basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly [5]. Supply - side Situation - **New - grain sales and production**: The national corn output increased to 3 billion tons, 5 million tons higher than the same period last year. As of November 20, the total national grain - sales progress was 27%, 2% faster year - on - year. If the sales progress continues, the expectation of tight supply later will increase [5]. - **Port inventory**: As of November 14, the corn inventory in the northern ports continued to rise to 117 million tons, but was significantly lower than the same period last year. The inventory of domestic and foreign - trade corn in Guangdong Port decreased [6]. - **Grain substitution and imports**: The wheat - corn price difference remained above 200, without substitution advantages. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but there was a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig farming was in a large - scale loss, but the short - term inventory was difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg - chicken farming continued to lose money. However, feed demand was strong. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was good. Starch processing enterprises continued to make profits, with a relatively high operating rate. Alcohol processing enterprises were in a large - scale loss, but the operating rate rose again. The operating rates of downstream starch - sugar and paper - making enterprises were relatively stable [7]. External Market Situation The U.S. corn on the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The U.S. government ended the shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report slightly reduced the U.S. corn yield per unit and output, but the ending inventory increased slightly, with relatively large supply pressure. The global corn ending inventory decreased slightly, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture report was neutral [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, China's corn production is expected to reach 300 million tons for the first time in history. With the harvest almost complete, the supply - demand structure is gradually moving towards balance. In the long - term, there is a tight supply expectation under mild production increase pressure, weakening import pressure, and stable demand [1]. - In the short - term, the corn market has shown a strong performance due to reduced supply and downstream price - raising purchases. However, the price may face intermittent pressure as the selling peak at the end of the year tests its resilience [1]. - The corn starch market has also run strongly this week, supported by rising raw material prices, good order shipments, and tight local supply [1]. - The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week, but the bearish November supply - demand data led to a sharp decline on Friday, erasing most of the gains from Monday to Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: In the Northeast, state reserve purchases support the market, and in North China, the reluctance to sell has reduced short - term supply. The downstream's price - raising purchases have supported the weekly strength of the corn market. China's corn production increase is certain, and the market is still digesting the price pressure from the production increase. The corn price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: China's corn supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With a sharp reduction in corn and substitute grain imports and a possible decrease in high - quality corn production in North China, the medium - term supply - demand structure may tighten. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth - quarter supply peak, and buyers should pay attention to the participation opportunities at the price bottom [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The sign of the end of the pull - back is more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continues to increase. Technically, the 01 contract is supported at the 2100 - yuan mark and rebounds along the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should be aware of the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory can consider partial inventory hedging at high prices to avoid pull - back risks [8]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - **Basis strategy**: The spot and futures prices are moving in sync, with a weaker increase in the production area. The port basis fluctuates narrowly, and no strategy is recommended [8]. - **Monthly spread strategy**: The decrease in spot supply has led the near - month 01 contract to perform strongly, narrowing the spread between near - and far - month contracts. The "sell near, buy far" strategy is temporarily withdrawn for observation [8]. - **Hedging arbitrage strategy**: Due to the fundamentals of soybeans and corn, it is not suitable for inter - variety arbitrage. The wheat - corn spread has narrowed but is still outside the substitution range. The starch - corn spread has little change, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now. The pig - grain ratio's rebound space is uncertain, and arbitrage is on hold [11][12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.25% and a volatility percentile of 38.4%. For starch, it is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a volatility of 7.81% and a volatility percentile of 15.39% [18]. - **Risk strategies for the fourth quarter**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts, with corresponding scenarios, hedging tools, trading directions, and suggested entry intervals [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: State reserve purchases continue to support the market, the early sales progress is fast, and farmers' reluctance to sell has reduced the effective circulating grain sources. Terminal enterprises have to raise prices to increase arrivals [19]. - **Negative information**: The increase in U.S. corn supply pressure due to the bearish USDA supply - demand report, and the possible increase in selling pressure after the price rises [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the price increase stimulates an increase in selling pressure [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures market has continued to strengthen this week. The main 01 contract rose 1.68% to 2185 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest, a slight increase in trading volume, and an increase in registered positions. The starch market has also strengthened in sync with corn, with a similar increase rate [20][21]. - **International market**: The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week but fell sharply on Friday due to bearish supply - demand data, and the rebound trend has weakened [53]. 3.3.2 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Starch - Corn Spread - **Basis structure**: After the new season started, the basis between the mainstream price at Jinzhou Port and the main contract is in a reasonable range, with little change. However, the basis in the production areas has weakened [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The spread between near - and far - month corn contracts has weakened this week, and the term structure has flattened. The starch basis in the main production areas has also weakened [35]. - **Starch - corn spread**: The spread has fluctuated slightly this week, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now [49]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: It is better than last year, especially in the Northeast production area [57]. - **Trading profit**: The stable and strengthening corn price is conducive to trading enterprises' purchasing and sales activities, and the inventory profit is improving [57]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The profit from corn - to - starch has slightly declined due to the rebound in corn prices and limited follow - up of starch spot prices. The profit from the corn - to - ethanol industry has continued to decline [57]. - **Disk profit**: The basis at Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. There is hedging profit for far - month contracts, but considering the bottom of the spot price, it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has increased as the domestic price has risen more strongly than the international price [59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **China's corn**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in planting area, production, import, consumption, and inventory in different years. The annual surplus is expected to be 3.55 million tons in 2025/26 [63]. - **Global corn**: The world's corn supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in beginning inventory, production, import, consumption, export, and ending inventory in different years. The stock - to - use ratio is expected to be 21.97% in 2025/26 [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is gradually decreasing from the peak. The selling pressure will be reduced as the temperature drops in the Northeast. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China has decreased due to rainfall. Although the overall supply is still high, there may be a shortage of high - quality corn [65]. - **Import**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative import of corn and corn flour was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. In September, the import was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [65]. - **Inventory**: The port corn inventory has not increased significantly, and the overall inventory is still at a low level, providing space for future corn purchasing and sales [67]. - **Foreign corn**: The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion, and the supply pressure is high. The bearish USDA supply - demand report on the 14th has increased the supply pressure [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - **Consumption**: The operating rates of major products have continued to rise. The feed demand is supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening, and the overall demand in the fourth quarter remains good [71]. - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The feed production is high, and the feed enterprise inventory has rebounded but is still at a low level. The pig - raising profit has changed little this week, and the reduction of pig production capacity may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [71]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn has attracted downstream enterprises to increase their operating rates, driving up corn consumption. However, the growth trend has slowed down due to rising raw material prices and insufficient price increases for terminal products [74].

Group 1: Market Data - As of November 6, 2025, U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,424,968 tons, down from a revised 1,712,164 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. corn export inspection volume for the current crop year is 13,725,293 tons, compared to 8,281,606 tons during the same period last year [1] - Brazil's corn planting rate for the first crop reached 47.7% as of November 8, up from 42.8% the previous week, but slightly below last year's 48.7% [1] Group 2: Production Forecasts - Brazil's total corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 143.562 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 142.494 million tons, driven by improved first-season crop yields and favorable second-season growth conditions [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - With the U.S. corn harvest progressing, supply pressure is expected to increase, although recent price increases in soybeans and wheat are providing some support to corn prices [2] - Domestic market conditions show that primary production areas are experiencing sales pressure, with farmers and traders actively selling grain, leading to relatively ample market supply [2] - The overall trend for corn prices has been slightly bullish in the short term, with market participants advised to remain observant [2] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - The current situation indicates an oversupply of corn, with ample grain sources in production areas and low inventory levels among feed enterprises and deep processing companies [3] - The profitability of deep processing is improving, and strong wheat prices are providing additional support to corn prices [3]

Core Insights - The global corn supply remains ample as the new season's corn is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a continuous decline in domestic corn prices in China. However, as supply-side pressures are fully digested and demand enters a peak season, corn prices are expected to gradually rise [1] Group 1: Production Data - The International Grains Council forecasts that global corn production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable at approximately 1.297 billion tons. In China, the corn planting area has increased by 134,000 hectares, a growth of 0.3%, while the yield per hectare has risen by 71 kg, or about 1.1%. Overall, corn production in China has increased by 4.08 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.38% [2] Group 2: Import Trends - Due to trade disputes between China and the U.S. and Canada, imports of grains, including corn, are expected to decrease. Barley imports are projected to fall below 10 million tons, while sorghum imports are estimated to be between 5.5 million and 6.5 million tons. The recent decline in corn prices has diminished the substitution advantage of other grains against corn. For the 2025-2026 period, corn imports are expected to be around 6 million tons, not exceeding the quota limit of 7.2 million tons [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand - Corn consumption in China is primarily driven by feed and deep processing sectors. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand from livestock, particularly broilers and pigs, is expected to rise, supporting corn feed demand. Additionally, after mid-October, profits for domestic starch and deep processing enterprises are anticipated to return to profitability and continue to rise, boosting production willingness. Data shows that by the end of October, the corn consumption of major deep processing enterprises increased by 6.71% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Inventory Stability - Domestic corn inventory is expected to stabilize around 41 million tons after rebounding in the 2022-2023 season. As of the end of October, the inventory of major deep processing enterprises was 2.827 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio for the new corn year remains reasonable, which will effectively buffer price fluctuations caused by supply growth. Despite a decrease in land rent, rising labor costs limit the decline in planting costs in major corn-producing regions, keeping planting returns at a relatively low level and constraining the downward space for corn prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain has entered the trading phase with fast sales. There is a trend of sourcing grain from Northeast China, which may lead to a shortage of high - quality grain sources later. With strong demand, it is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality moist grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed. It is also advisable to buy far - month hedging on the futures market to avoid price increase risks [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price has risen steadily. The FOB price of corn in Bayuquan has increased from 2140 yuan/ton to around 2165 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port has remained stable at around 2250 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened oscillatingly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [3]. - The main starch 2601 contract has rebounded oscillatingly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu has remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis has weakened oscillatingly [3]. Supply - side Factors - New grain sales are fast, and the market is sourcing grain from Northeast China. As of November 6, the national grain sales progress was 22%, 3% faster year - on - year. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18% (3% faster y/y), 20% in North China (1% faster y/y), and 42% in Northwest China (4% faster y/y). Faster sales may lead to a tight supply after the Spring Festival [3]. - Channel inventories are rising, and downstream enterprises are starting to purchase. As of October 31, the corn inventory in North Ports was 102.1 tons and continued to rise, with a weekly shipment volume of 71.6 tons remaining high. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port stopped falling and rebounded to 42.5 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 31.7 tons. As of November 7, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, slightly down but generally rising, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 24.88 days, stopping the decline and starting to rise [3]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain low. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened to over 200, eliminating the substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. Although there has been a new China - US trade negotiation and mutual tax cuts, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the agreement mainly involves the import of tens of millions of tons of US soybeans, with no mention of corn. It is expected that corn imports will remain low in the short term [4]. Demand - side Factors - Feed demand is strong. Pig prices have rebounded from the low level, and the loss in pig farming has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 89.3 yuan per head, both showing a reduction in losses. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month, still far from the regulatory target. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, egg prices have rebounded, and egg - chicken farming is slightly in the red. Chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. The inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly, but the capacity adjustment is still slow [5]. - The demand of deep - processing enterprises is positive. Starch processing enterprises have been continuously profitable, and the operating rate has increased. As of November 7, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.77% and continued to rise, and the starch inventory increased month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises have suffered large losses again, but the operating rate has remained high at 66.79%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises has increased [5]. International Market - The US corn in the overseas market has rebounded oscillatingly. The US government shutdown continues, but the US Department of Agriculture may release a new supply - demand report. The US corn harvest is almost over, with high yield pressure. Affected by China - US trade negotiations and tax cuts, US corn has been boosted, but it is unclear whether China will import US corn [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After the impact of the new season's listing in October, the spot price showed resilience and fluctuated slightly stronger in November. Although the spot selling pressure remained at a high level, the price showed signs of bottom consolidation under the influence of state reserve purchases, deep - processing and feed enterprises' restocking at low prices, and the rise of surrounding agricultural product prices. Downstream enterprises are advised to manage their long - term procurement to avoid the risk of increased procurement costs later [2]. - On the futures side, the corn futures price broke through upwards, recovering the decline in October. The main 01 contract closed at 2154 yuan, with increased trading volume and significantly increased open interest. The registered warrants remained unchanged at 66,351 lots. The starch price also rose, with the main 01 contract closing at 2469 yuan, increased trading volume, and slightly increased open interest. The strong sales in the starch market led to continuous inventory reduction, and the futures price followed the corn to strengthen, with the price spread between starch and corn likely to widen further [2]. - Although the overall corn price has stopped falling and stabilized, it is still weaker than other agricultural products. Currently, the price shows resilience, and short - term selling pressure is the core factor determining the price [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower. The harvest and listing of the new season's corn is the core factor suppressing the futures price. In addition, the good planting conditions for South American corn and the sharp decline of surrounding soybeans and wheat also brought pressure [2]. Summary by Section Core Contradictions - Spot price: After the October shock, it showed resilience and narrow - range upward fluctuations in November. Selling pressure is high, but state reserve purchases, enterprise restocking, and rising surrounding agricultural product prices support the price to show bottom - consolidation signs [2]. - Futures price: Corn futures broke through upwards, recovering the October decline. Starch futures followed the upward trend, and the price spread may widen [2]. - Overall situation: Corn price is stable but weaker than other agricultural products. Short - term selling pressure is the key price - determining factor [2]. - International market: CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower due to new - season harvest, good South American planting conditions, and the decline of surrounding products [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure is more dispersed, reducing the urgency of grain sales and alleviating price pressure [3]. - State reserve purchases in the Northeast production area are significantly supporting prices, limiting price declines [3]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, affecting the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current second - fattening entry support the feed demand at a good level [4]. - In the first half of November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure may be released in a concentrated manner, limiting the continuous upward momentum of prices [4]. - The sharp decline of overnight foreign agricultural products may affect the upward trend of corn [4]. Price Forecast - Corn price range (monthly): 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 56.1% [5]. - Starch price range (monthly): 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.00% and a volatility percentile of 37.89% [5]. Price and Basis Data - Spot price: For corn, Jinzhou Port is 2155 yuan (-10 yuan), Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch, Shandong is 2750 yuan (unchanged), Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is 2450 yuan (unchanged) [5]. - Basis: Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis for corn is 1 yuan (-30 yuan), and Shandong main - continuous basis for corn starch is 281 yuan (-18 yuan) [5]. - Futures price: Corn futures prices generally increased on November 6, 2025, with the 11 - contract rising 28 yuan (1.32%), the 01 - contract rising 20 yuan (0.94%), etc. Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the 11 - contract unchanged, the 01 - contract rising 18 yuan (0.73%), etc. The wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan (-0.12%) [6]. International Market Data - CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 428.75 cents per bushel, down 6.25 cents (-1.44%). COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1108 cents per bushel, down 26.5 cents (-2.34%). CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 536 cents per bushel, down 18 cents (-3.25%) [26]. - The duty - paid price in the US Gulf is 2164.54 yuan, up 10.57 yuan (0.49%), with an import profit of 85.46 yuan. The duty - paid price in the US West is 2048.48 yuan, up 10.63 yuan (0.52%), with an import profit of 201.52 yuan [26].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 05, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After entering November, the selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas began to weaken. In North China, the selling pressure was released after the "fire - sale" of moist corn. In Northeast China, after the peak of centralized harvest and listing, the selling pressure eased with the drop in temperature. The overall grass - roots in the producing areas were more reluctant to sell, and the purchasing end raised prices to increase purchases, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the resilience of corn prices has strengthened, and the subsequent price pressure has eased as it turns into a phased release of selling pressure. On Tuesday, the upward trend of the corn futures market paused. The main 01 contract closed at 2135 yuan, with significantly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 66,351 lots. Starch futures followed corn and closed lower. The main 01 contract closed at 2444 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly reduced open interest. On Tuesday, CBOT corn futures closed lower following the decline of soybeans. StoneX raised its forecast of US corn yield per acre by 10 bushels to 186.0 bushels per acre, which weighed on prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Core Contradictions - The selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas has weakened, and the grass - roots are reluctant to sell. The purchasing end raises prices, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the price pressure eases. The corn and starch futures markets closed lower on Tuesday, and CBOT corn futures also declined [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure has become more dispersed, and the urgency to sell grain has decreased, alleviating price pressure. The state - reserve purchase in Northeast China has significantly supported prices, limiting price declines. The unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November has increased the bullish sentiment in the market [5]. Bearish Factors - The weak operation of hog prices and the industry's capacity adjustment may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs still support the feed demand at a relatively good level. From mid - to early November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure needs to be released in a phased and concentrated manner, which restricts the continuous upward momentum of prices. Chinese importers have inquired about wheat cargoes and plan to load them from the end of this year to February next year. The resumption of grain imports will increase the pressure on domestic corn, and the purchase volume should be monitored [3]. Price Range Forecast | Commodity | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility | Volatility Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 2050 - 2200 | 9.43% | 54.6% | | Starch | 2350 - 2550 | 10.64% | 42.31% | [3] Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2165 | 0 | Shandong | 2750 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2250 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2450 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 30 | 21 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 306 | 9 | [3] Futures Market Prices - Specific price data for different contracts of corn and corn starch on November 03 and 04, 2025, are provided, including prices, changes, and change rates. For example, the corn 11 contract closed at 2129 yuan on November 03 and 2120 yuan on November 04, with a change of - 9 yuan and a change rate of - 0.42% [6]. U.S. Corn Price and Import Profit | | Price | Daily Change | Increase | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 430.75 | - 4 | - 0.92% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1120.25 | - 14.25 | - 1.26% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 550 | 5.25 | 0.96% | | | U.S. Gulf Port CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2151.26 | 0.92 | 0.04% | 98.74 | | U.S. West Coast CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2035.3 | 0.87 | 0.04% | 214.7 | [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - **Risk Strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - **International Market**: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Basis Structure**: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting Profit**: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - **Trading Profit**: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - **Deep - processing Profit**: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - **Disk Profit**: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - **Global**: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic**: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - **Foreign**: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed Demand**: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].

Core Viewpoint - Corn futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with potential for further price fluctuations and varying market sentiments among different institutions [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - As of March 15, corn futures main contract showed a strong oscillation, peaking at 2141.00 yuan, and closing at 2138.00 yuan with a 0.33% increase [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates that there may be a possibility of corn prices reaching new lows due to the anticipated pressure from a bumper harvest this year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, there is a possibility for corn prices to decline further, influenced by adjustments in futures prices and concentrated supply in the Northeast region [2] - Guangzhou Futures suggests that while corn spot prices are weakening due to increased supply, the lower inventory levels in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the downside potential for prices [3] - Caida Futures notes that with the new corn season entering a concentrated harvest phase, there is an increase in supply, but seasonal supply pressures are suppressing price increases, leading to short-term price volatility [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are likely to decline in the short term but have limited downside space, with support at the 2000 price level. It is recommended to focus on long - term long - buying opportunities for corn [2][5]. - Different participants in the industry are given corresponding operation suggestions. Traders for procurement management should build inventory, buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases, and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; traders for inventory management with inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level; downstream enterprises for procurement management should buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; downstream enterprises for inventory management with high raw material inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level [2]. - Key data to focus on include the selling pressure at the grass - roots level, changes in the inventory of the breeding industry, and the price difference between corn and wheat [2]. Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Continuous rainy weather has intensified the selling pressure in Henan and other regions, resulting in a significant impact from the overall market supply. The new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions has a large amount of harvest and listing, with high enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass - roots level. The arrival volume at the four northern ports and the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants have reached historical highs [7][8]. Corn Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a three - year low. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of ordinary corn was 890,000 tons, a decrease of 92.92% compared with the same period last year. The estimated import volume of corn in the 2024/25 season is 3 million tons, lower than the 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][18][19]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat has moved out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has decreased. The price of wheat has risen this week. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is around - 290 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 45.22% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 40.00% year - on - year [22][23]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is poor. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn used in compound feed was 32.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 percentage points. The inventory of breeding capacity is at a high level, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the breeding profit of broilers, and the breeding profit of laying hens are all in a poor state [31][32][33]. Corn Processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to recover, and the deep - processing production profit has improved rapidly. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises in the country has returned to a neutral level, with the operating rate in Shandong and Heilongjiang regions at a relatively high level. The production of corn starch has increased, and the downstream pick - up volume has recovered. The production profit of corn starch has recovered rapidly, and the profit of corn alcohol manufacturing in major producing provinces has also improved [47][48]. Inventory Channel and Downstream Inventory - Channel and downstream inventories have started to replenish, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of October 10, the inventory at the four northern ports has stopped falling and started to rise, but it is still at a low level. The inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has continued to rise seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises has increased and is at a high level in the past eight years [75][76][77]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch contracts such as C2601, C2605, and C2609, including the basis of corn and starch at different ports and regions, and the spread between different contracts [106][116][117]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of October 16, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 [126].