Core Insights - The article discusses the potential structural changes in the real estate market in China by 2026, highlighting the influence of Jack Ma's previous predictions, although it clarifies that recent claims about his predictions are false [1][6]. Group 1: Real Estate Price Trends - There is an expectation of significant differentiation in housing prices across various cities, with second and third-tier cities likely to continue bottoming out, while first-tier cities may experience a correction after a period of stability [4]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities exceeds 40, indicating that residents would need over 40 years of savings to afford a home, leading to a potential decline in prices in these areas [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The government is expected to strengthen real estate regulations, including increasing the proportion of "existing home sales" to mitigate risks associated with "pre-sale homes" [7][9]. - The easing of restrictions in core areas of first-tier cities and a decrease in mortgage rates and taxes for homebuyers are anticipated as part of the regulatory changes [9]. Group 3: Public Area Costs - There is a growing demand to eliminate shared area costs in property sales, as buyers often pay for areas that are not usable, leading to increased overall costs [11]. - Some cities have already begun to eliminate shared area costs, allowing developers to price homes based on usable area, which is expected to reduce the financial burden on buyers [11].

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a shift in China's real estate investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of aligning investments with actual market demand and improving quality and structure in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has significantly increased, with its share of GDP rising from 4% in 2000 to 13.7% in 2020, peaking at 14.5% in 2014, which is notably higher than the international average of 4%-7% [2]. - The high proportion of housing assets in urban residents' wealth, at 59.1%, indicates a significant imbalance in wealth distribution, with an average housing asset value of 1.878 million yuan per household [2]. - The leverage ratio of households is projected to reach 60% by 2025, a substantial increase from 17.6% in 2008, highlighting the growing financial risk in the sector [2]. Group 2: Policy Shifts and New Development Models - The 20th National Congress emphasized the need for a new real estate development model that focuses on high-quality development and integrates real estate into the social welfare framework [4][5]. - The new model aims to establish a housing supply system that meets both rigid and improvement housing demands, promoting a multi-entity supply and a dual rental-purchase housing system [5][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new real estate has sharply declined since 2020, with new construction area dropping by approximately 78% from its peak, while the inventory of unsold properties remains high at over 750 million square meters [4][15]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the quality of housing, with initiatives to build "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart, as part of the broader goal of improving living standards [10][17]. - The shift towards现房销售 (selling completed homes) is gaining traction, with the proportion of现房销售 increasing to 35% by 2025, reflecting a move to mitigate risks associated with pre-sales [18][20]. Group 4: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The market is witnessing a transition from a focus on demand control to optimizing supply structures and matching housing needs more precisely [9][19]. - The involvement of state-owned enterprises in market-driven land acquisition is expected to accelerate land storage and improve market stability [16]. - The current real estate landscape suggests that larger firms may gain a competitive edge due to their ability to manage financing and compliance more effectively, potentially leading to increased market concentration [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that from January to November 2025, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies reached 847.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed compared to the previous months [4] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities in November was 13,143 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% [4] - The report indicates that many regions are exploring policies to support the sale of existing homes, which may temporarily suppress real estate investment but will help restore residents' confidence in home buying in the long term [4] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 2.4177 million square meters, with a cumulative new home transaction area of 82.3198 million square meters for the year, down 9.8% year-on-year [5] - The average transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities over the past four weeks was 475,700 square meters, down 41.2% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw an average of 1.0945 million square meters, down 26.5% year-on-year [5][13] - The available inventory of commodity residential properties in 14 cities was 80.3458 million square meters, down 6.52% year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 19.14 months [16] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan first-level real estate industry index rose by 0.72%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.92 percentage points [29] - The report notes that the A-share real estate sector ranked 24th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries last week [30]

Core Viewpoint - Recent claims about Li Ka-shing predicting five major changes in the real estate market by 2026 are confirmed to be false, as no such predictions have been made by him [1][14]. Group 1: Expected Changes in Real Estate Market by 2026 - Change 1: Significant differentiation in housing price trends is anticipated, with second and third-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in price declines, while first-tier cities may see price corrections to align with local income levels [5][11]. - Change 2: An increasing number of cities are expected to eliminate shared area calculations in property sales, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area, thereby reducing overall housing costs [7][12]. - Change 3: The market is likely to shift from pre-sale (off-plan) properties to completed (on-site) sales, enhancing buyer confidence and reducing the risk of unfinished projects [9][11]. - Change 4: A significant restructuring of the real estate sector is expected, with smaller firms facing liquidity issues likely to be acquired by larger companies, particularly those with state-owned backgrounds [11][12]. - Change 5: The pace of affordable housing projects is projected to accelerate, with a target of 600,000 units over five years, which will lower living costs for low-income families and exert downward pressure on market prices [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an 'Overweight' rating for the real estate industry [23]. Core Insights - Recent weeks have seen a rebound in transactions in major cities, with a stable market outlook expected to continue until year-end. Existing home sales are identified as a crucial direction for developing new real estate models, which supports the health of the industry [23][24]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In Week 48 of 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.13 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.50% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.55%. First-tier cities sold 520,000 square meters (up 22.2% week-on-week, down 39% year-on-year), second-tier cities sold 1.26 million square meters (up 7.45%, down 30%), and third-tier cities sold 340,000 square meters (up 0.84%, down 31.4%) [24]. Cumulative Sales Data - From November 1-27, 2025, cumulative sales in 30 cities totaled 6.75 million square meters, up 13.7% from October 2025 but down 31% year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 1.70 million square meters (up 4%, down 43%), second-tier cities for 3.80 million square meters (up 34%, down 24.15%), and third-tier cities for 1.26 million square meters (down 14.8%, down 27.6%) [24]. Second-Hand Home Sales - In Week 48, second-hand home sales in 24 cities reached 2.15 million square meters, up 1.99% week-on-week but down 15.9% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 860,000 square meters (up 3.0%, down 24.8%), second-tier cities sold 835,000 square meters (down 0.66%, down 20.3%), and third-tier cities sold 457,000 square meters (up 5.1%, up 24.1%) [25]. Land Transactions - In Week 48, land transaction growth in 100 cities showed an increase, with land supply at 53.55 million square meters and transactions at 25.33 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 2.11. The total land transfer revenue was RMB 65.1 billion. For the year, cumulative land supply was 815.15 million square meters (down 12% year-on-year), with transactions at 649.34 million square meters (down 6.7% year-on-year) [26]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - In October 2025, the inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities continued to rise, with a saleable area of 315.11 million square meters (down 0.82% month-on-month, down 3.44% year-on-year). The clearance cycle averaged 23.13 months, up 2.50% from the previous month and up 0.90% year-on-year [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current domestic economy remains stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy still needs to be strengthened. The market sentiment has significantly improved, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. Different asset classes have different trends and investment opportunities due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international situations [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Treasury Bonds**: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. - **Crude Oil**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. - **Polyolefins**: Present buying opportunities [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36]. - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. - **Copper**: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. - **Aluminum**: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. - **Zinc**: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. - **Lead**: May weakly fluctuate [54]. - **Tin**: May fluctuate strongly [55]. - **Nickel**: May fluctuate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: A bullish approach can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak, and the upside space is limited [66][67]. - **Sugar**: Will fluctuate [71]. - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [72][73]. - **Hogs**: Consider holding the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking of previous short positions [74]. - **Eggs**: Consider waiting and seeing for now [77]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had different price changes. The central bank conducted 3013 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day [5]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: In November, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points, the non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased by 0.3 percentage points. The overall economic prosperity level was stable [5]. - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of different stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Policy News**: Many regions are researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties, aiming to increase the proportion of completed property sales [8]. - **Outlook**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver had price increases, and there were also price changes in the night session [11]. - **Supporting Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are all favorable for precious metals [11]. - **Outlook**: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of different steel products are provided [13]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the market will enter the off - season. On the supply side, over - capacity persists, and rebar production has decreased slightly. The inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot prices of different iron ore products are provided [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the domestic production of raw ore is lower than last year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and supply is increasing. The downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is decreasing, and the procurement rhythm is slowing down. For coke, after the fourth price increase, the supply is stable, but the demand from steel mills may weaken due to profit compression [18]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron had different price changes. The spot prices of different ferroalloys are provided [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys is rising. The production of rebar by sample steel mills has decreased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, but the overall over - supply situation is easing [20][21]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward [22]. - **News and Data**: There are news about Russia - US negotiations and the possible decision of OPEC+ to maintain oil production levels [22]. - **Outlook**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward and temporarily got rid of the annual low [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot discount of Asian fuel oil has deepened, and the progress of the US 28 - point plan is slow, both of which are favorable for fuel oil prices [25]. - **Outlook**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had a slight increase in quotes, while the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market decreased in some parts [27]. - **Demand Analysis**: The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased, but different sub - industries have different trends. The demand for some products is affected by seasons and market conditions [27]. - **Outlook**: Present buying opportunities [28]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose [29]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of raw materials is abundant, the supply of synthetic rubber is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak [29]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose [31]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is supported by weather and high overseas raw material prices. The demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the inventory is slightly increasing [31]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC rose, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand from different downstream industries is different, and the cost - profit situation is complex. The social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose [35]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply has increased, the demand from different downstream products has changed differently, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The inventory is at a certain level [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose [37]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The PX load has increased, the import volume has decreased, and the cost is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply is slightly reduced [37][38]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose [39]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee is declining. The cost is affected by crude oil and raw material PX prices [39]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined [40]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is limited [40][41]. - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose [43]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand from the downstream industry is stable, and the cost drive is increasing [43]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose [44]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is at a certain level, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry is in the off - season, and the export is increasing. The cost is affected by raw material prices [44]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined [45]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the social inventory is decreasing [45][46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose [47]. - **Macro - and Fundamental Analysis**: The possible early resignation of the Fed chairman increases the probability of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and the demand is affected by high prices and substitution effects. The social inventory has decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose, and the main contract of alumina declined [49]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the import of ore is increasing. The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level but may increase [49][50]. - **Outlook**: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the export window has opened, the demand is in the off - season but has some rigid support, and the social inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Outlook**: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose [54]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, the demand from the battery market is in the off - season, and the social inventory may stop decreasing [54]. - **Outlook**: May weakly fluctuate [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has some structural support, and the refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel declined [56]. - **Macro - and Fundamental Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is increasing. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [56]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal rose. The spot prices of different products are provided [57]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, the demand is expected to improve, the soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory of soybean oil and soybean meal is increasing [57][58]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The market has some price changes, and the export volume of Malaysia and the import volume of China are provided [59]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is decreasing, the production may decline seasonally, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed

Group 1: Land Auction Insights - In Hangzhou, three residential land parcels were sold at the base price, marking the first occurrence since 2025 where all parcels on a day with total transaction value exceeding 3 billion yuan were sold at the base price [5] - The land supply scale reached a new high for the year, with seven parcels exceeding 2 billion yuan listed for auction during the week of November 17-23, 2025 [8] - The average premium rate for land auctions hit a new low since the second half of the year, indicating a continued low level of auction enthusiasm [8][11] Group 2: Industry Trends - In the first nine months of 2025, leading construction companies showed a strong willingness to expand, with the top 20 companies signing contracts for a total area of 15.771 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31% [6] - The number of winning bids for construction projects has steadily increased, particularly in the third quarter, which saw a record high in the number of projects awarded [6] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal, urging local governments to adopt innovative approaches in planning, funding, operations, and governance [9] - Local policies have been accelerating, with initiatives such as encouraging the sale of existing homes in Chenzhou and offering subsidies for home purchases in Hangzhou's Yuhang District [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, economic growth continued the slowdown trend from the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments had been fully disbursed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved. - Overseas, the release of the US October CPI and some employment data was hindered due to data collection issues during the shutdown. The number of initial jobless claims last week hit a 7 - month low. The Fed's economic beige book showed that recent US economic activity was stable, but there were downward risks in the labor market. Since November, the US interest - rate cut rhythm has been inconsistent, and the dovish tone within the Fed has become more prominent, increasing the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December. - The economic indicators in October declined across the board, and the fundamentals were slightly under pressure. It is expected that the economy will continue the weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market. The central bank maintains a moderately loose policy tone, but the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. During the policy vacuum period, the bond market sentiment is generally weak and sensitive to news, and it may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, waiting for directional guidance from uncertain factors such as the central bank's Treasury bond trading scale in November and the new fund redemption rules [99][100]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' active contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) fell by 0.93%, 0.45%, 0.10%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes were 520,100, 442,800, 320,200, and 164,100 respectively [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts all declined. The trading volume of the TS main contract decreased slightly, while those of the TF, T, and TL main contracts increased. The open interest of all main contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) increased [15][21][29]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission planned to formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. On November 25, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. On November 27, it was reported that from January to October, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year - on - year, but in October, it decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. On November 28, many regions in China were researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties. In addition, there were news about the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and the US jobless claims data [32][33]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: This week, the spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed, while the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts both narrowed. The spread between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year contract widened, while that of the 30 - year contract narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 5 - year and 2 - year contracts widened [42][48][52]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [65]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The overnight Shibor rate decreased, while the 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.46%. The yields of short - term Treasury bonds were strong, while those of medium - and long - term bonds were weak. The 1 - 3 - year yields decreased by 0.5 - 1.5 bp, the 5 - 7 - year yields increased by about 3 bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields increased by about 1.9 and 2.7 bp respectively, reaching 1.83% and 2.18%. The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year US and Chinese Treasury bond yields both narrowed slightly [69][76]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 167.6 billion yuan due; it also conducted 200 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 90 billion yuan due, achieving a net investment of 13.58 billion yuan [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 141.494 billion yuan, the total repayment was 119.1457 billion yuan, and the net financing was 22.3482 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0789, with a cumulative increase of 86 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased, and the VIX index dropped significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][91][96]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategies - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In October, social retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a downward trend, and the growth rates of social financing and credit decreased year - on - year. The support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken, and the actual loan demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and the activation of deposits slowed down. The year - on - year export growth rate turned negative, falling by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. - **Overseas Situation**: The release of the US October CPI and some employment data was affected. The number of initial jobless claims last week was at a 7 - month low. The Fed's economic beige book showed stable economic activity but downward risks in the labor market. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in December increased. - **Market Outlook**: The economic indicators in October declined, and the fundamentals were under pressure. It is expected that the economy will continue the weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank maintains a moderately loose policy, but the space for further monetary easing is limited. In the short term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range, waiting for directional guidance from uncertain factors [99][100].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "current housing sales" is a key focus for the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 2025, aiming to address risks associated with property delivery and enhance consumer confidence in the housing market [1][4]. Group 1: Current Housing Sales - "Current housing sales" allows buyers to see and inspect properties before purchase, reducing concerns about delivery times and quality [3][5]. - The shift from pre-sale to current housing sales is a response to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market, emphasizing risk mitigation and consumer protection [4][6]. - The pilot program for current housing sales in Yuncheng aims to accumulate experience and improve the overall quality of housing development [4][7]. Group 2: Consumer Benefits - Current housing sales provide faster occupancy times and allow buyers to verify property conditions, thus protecting their rights and interests [5][6]. - The model reduces the risk of unfinished projects and enables buyers to assess the quality of the property directly, leading to fewer disputes upon delivery [5][6]. - The project "Binhai No. 1" exemplifies the current housing sales model, where all facilities are completed before sales, ensuring immediate access to amenities [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition to current housing sales reflects a broader shift in housing demand from mere availability to quality and experience [7]. - The approach requires stronger financial capabilities and operational skills from developers, alongside supportive policies to facilitate this transition [7]. - Future measures will include enhanced regulation of pre-sale funds and the promotion of simultaneous delivery of property rights certificates to improve the existing pre-sale system [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of "existing house sales" in Shenzhen, highlighting the city's proactive approach compared to other first-tier cities in China, which have not yet implemented such measures extensively [1][4]. Group 1: Current Developments - Shenzhen's Planning and Natural Resources Bureau has recently listed a piece of land for full existing house sales, located in the Futian Meilin area, with a land area of 4,994 square meters and a starting price of 480 million yuan [1][3]. - This is not the first instance of Shenzhen promoting existing house sales; the city has been a pioneer since 2016, with multiple land parcels designated for this purpose in recent years [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context - The current market environment favors existing house sales as it allows buyers to see the product before purchase, thus facilitating decision-making [2][4]. - The proportion of existing house sales is increasing in Shenzhen, with 30.9% of new residential sales in the first half of the year being existing houses, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [7]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The shift towards existing house sales imposes higher operational requirements on real estate companies, as it affects cash flow and financing costs, favoring more stable and professional firms [2][4]. - The ongoing exploration of existing house sales aligns with national policies aimed at reforming real estate development and sales systems to enhance buyer protection and reduce delivery risks [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend of promoting existing house sales is expected to continue, particularly in cities with high inventory levels, while areas with lower inventory may face challenges in supply-demand balance [8]. - Experts suggest that existing house sales could boost market confidence, especially in high-quality projects in hot urban areas, while also addressing issues in regions with high inventory and weak buyer confidence [7][8].