Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential recovery in the market with a recommendation to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +3.1%, ranking 17th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +3.9%, ranking 4th [3][19]. - The land market's premium rate has rebounded, with an average premium rate of 9% for the week ending June 27, 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [3][30]. - New housing sales in 47 cities totaled 523 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +39% but a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - Guangzhou is promoting prefabricated buildings, mandating that 100% of residential land sold from 2026 onwards will implement this construction method, which may transform the real estate and construction industries [6][17]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions across various city tiers [4][43]. - The premium rates for land transactions have shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3][30]. Land Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 923 million square meters of residential land were transacted across 300 cities, with a year-on-year decrease of -33% [30]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount are Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 414 billion, 395 billion, 386 billion, 329 billion, and 313 billion respectively [30][31]. New Housing Sales - New housing sales in 47 cities reached 523 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of +39% and a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - The performance varied by city tier, with first-tier cities showing a week-on-week increase of +81% [4][35]. Second-Hand Housing Sales - Second-hand housing transactions totaled 264 million square meters in 22 cities, with a week-on-week increase of +1% and a year-on-year decrease of -2% [43][44]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of +2%, while second-tier cities saw a +1% increase [43][44]. Policy and Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in supporting the real estate market, particularly in Shanghai, where the release of quality land parcels is seen as a positive signal for market recovery [5][13]. - The promotion of prefabricated buildings in Guangzhou is expected to enhance construction efficiency and sustainability, potentially benefiting developers who adopt these practices [6][17].

然而，反对取消预售制的声音也不绝于耳。反对者担忧，取消预售制将导致开发商融资渠道受限，中小开发商可能因资金链断裂而破产；同时，新建商品房 供应量可能大幅减少，导致房价飙升。 然而，预售制的种种弊端日益凸显，引发高层关注。2023年初，住建部正式提出"现房销售"概念，北京、福州、合合肥、成都、南京等地率先试点现售，雄 安新区更直接全面实施现售政策。与此同时，各大房企也积极提高现售商品房比例。 针对预售制去留问题，北京大学教授姚洋认为，当下正是取消预售制的绝佳时机。"你不建好，购房者就不会买单，这是一个转变的良机。" 姚教授认为， 当前购房者信心不足，正是逐步取消预售制，引导市场健康发展的契机。许多业内人士也认同这一观点，认为取消预售制是未来中国楼市发展的必然趋势， 顺应民意。 中国房地产市场长期以来饱受高房价、商品房预售制度和公摊面积三大顽疾困扰。其中，预售制尤为令人诟病。其弊端显而易见：烂尾楼频现，房屋质量堪 忧，购房者面临巨大的经济风险，市场信心亦遭受严重打击。 我们认为，取消商品房预售制是大势所趋。首先，这将有效避免烂尾楼事件，保障购房者权益。现房销售模式下，购房者可实地验房，满意后再购房，这将 倒逼开发 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 22 日 销量同比震荡回落，新开工同比负增长收窄 房地产行业最新观点及 25 年 1-5 月数据深度解读 总量研究/房地产 5 月房地产开发投资金额基期调整同比增速为-12.0%（较上月减少 0.7pct）， 投资同比同步于施工面积同比回落，过去一段时间销售市场热度回升带动下 的施工强度提升或相对有限，或反映去库存仍是房企的重要目标； ❑ 5 月到位资金基期调整同比增速为-10.1%（较上月减少 4.8pct），结构上， "国内贷款"同比增速持续高于"新开工"或与"白名单"融资模式下部分 房企借新还旧以及调整融资渠道等有关，"自筹资金"同比增速趋势与"新 开工"基本一致；"销售类到位资金"同比同步于"销售金额"回落； 5 月末房地产资金链指数趋势回落（111%），当前仍处于历史较低水平，往 后看，在供需两端政策逐步落地下，部分企业资金面有望进一步改善； 5 月 70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大。5 月 70 城新房房价环比-0.22%（环比负 增速幅度较上月扩大 0.10pct），其中，新房房价一线城市环比-0.2%，二线 环比-0.2%，三线环比-0.3% ...

相关报告 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 影响土地市场的五大因素 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 2025 年 06 月 18 日 宏观深度研究 研究所： 《宏观深度研究：土地市场的新变化*夏磊》—— 2025-05-12 《 金 融 政 策 加 力 稳 市 场 稳 预 期 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-05-08 《 政 治 局 会 议 的 五 大 政 策 部 署 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-04-25 《宏观深度研究：房地产市场止跌回稳新特征*夏 磊》——2025-04-15 今年一季度，房地产市场修复态势明显。供给侧土地市场同步释放 出积极信号，未来其热度能否延续？ 土地市场后续表现主要取决于五大关键因素：融资环境能否进一步 改善、新房市场成交量能否持续企稳、市场库存能否有效去化、房 地产新模式下的销售模式变革，以及供地规则的优化调整。 土地市场进入"双集中"时代 当前土地市场热度集中于 35 个一二线城市和 20 家房企。 土地市 ...

越秀地产 20250617 摘要 越秀地产 2025 年一季度销售额同比下降 26%，但仍对全年 1,205 亿 元销售目标充满信心，在北京等核心城市保持领先地位，新项目如"和 悦望云"表现突出。 公司在广州、北京、上海等地新增十幅地块，总面积 103 万平方米，权 益投资 76 亿元，预计全年权益投资额 300 亿元，并计划调整广州项目 权益比例以优化资源配置。 越秀地产财务状况稳健，符合"三道红线"绿档标准，手头现金 500 亿 元，有息负债规模稳中有降，融资成本约 3.49%，国际评级机构展望提 升至稳定。 公司 2024 年成功收储 135 亿元，计划继续与核心城市政府谈判盘活闲 置土地，通过换地或商改住等方式加快旧库存周转，提高资产利用效率。 公司认为现房销售政策不会对整体业务产生重大影响，并将在政策框架 内积极应对市场变化，预计低线、高库存城市可能率先试点。 公司 6 月计划在核心城市推出重点项目，如广州大道项目、西安高新区 项目等，四代住宅产品在市场表现良好，但广州四代宅规范要求趋严。 公司总土地储备未售货值约 3,600 亿元，大湾区占比 40%，华东和北 方区域各占 20%，中西部区域占比百 ...

华润置地 20250617 摘要 华润置地 1-5 月累计收入 204 亿元，同比增长 10%，其中经营性不动 产业务收入 133 亿元，同比增长 13%，购物中心租金收入 114 亿元， 同比增长 17%，同店增长 6%。写字楼租金收入同比小幅下降 7%，酒 店经营收入同比下降 9%。 今年 1-5 月及 5 月单月购物中心零售额同比增长约 20%，同店增长高单 位数。13 家重奢购物中心的同店表现略高于整体增速。客流方面，今年 1-5 月累计客流及 5 月单月客流均同比增长 35%。 公司新增货值约 900 多亿，加上去年带过来的两千五六百亿，总可售资 源超过 5,000 亿。预计全年签约额略有小幅增长，去化率预计比去年略 有提高，高质量一线城市供货比例提升。 公司始终保持投资纪律性，聚焦高净值城市，关注项目回报刻度是否满 足要求，严格管理负债比率和现金流风险。维持毛利率在 15%左右，净 利润率在 8%到 10%之间，内部收益率（IRR）在 15%以上。 公司优化租户结构，使其与消费者需求最优匹配，通过共创共赢提升运 营结果。流量增长是零售额增长的主要驱动因素，这与引流能力、运营 服务、租户组合、品牌创 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - New home sales in May showed a month-on-month increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline. The total new home sales area in 40 cities reached 10.414 million square meters, up 12.4% month-on-month but down 3.2% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points compared to April [12][15] - The second-hand housing market showed weakening momentum, with a month-on-month decline in transaction volume and a narrowing year-on-year growth rate. The total transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 8.104 million square meters, down 15.9% month-on-month but up 3.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate narrowing by 8.7 percentage points [20][24] - The land market continues to exhibit a "quality over quantity" trend, with a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in average land prices. The average land premium rate in May was 4.6%, down 3.6 percentage points month-on-month but up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [11][19] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In May, new home sales area increased month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed. The total area sold in 40 cities was 10.414 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.1% for the first five months [12][15] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Notably, Beijing's sales increased by 22% year-on-year, while Shenzhen experienced a decline [13][18] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home market showed a month-on-month decline in sales, with a year-on-year growth rate narrowing. The total area sold in 18 cities was 8.104 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 19.1% for the first five months [20][24] - First and second-tier cities experienced a decrease in transaction volume, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a shift from positive to negative year-on-year growth [21][25] Land Market - The land market showed a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in average land prices. The average land premium rate was 4.6%, indicating a continued trend of "quality over quantity" [11][19] - The total land transaction area in May was 17.1148 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [19] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 11.1% in May, with a cumulative decline of 8.4% for the first five months [35] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies decreased month-on-month, with a total acquisition amount of 70.6 billion yuan in May, down 47.4% month-on-month [39] Policy Support - Multiple financial support policies for the housing market were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [4][5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and enhance financing mechanisms to support housing demand [4][5] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in May, with an absolute return of -0.4% and a relative return of -2.3% [47][48] - The report suggests that the market is still in a phase of adjustment, with ongoing efforts needed to restore confidence and improve supply-demand relationships [4][5]

2025房地产市场前瞻：五大趋势解析与应对 随着2024年接近尾声，回顾这一年，房地产市场的一系列利好政策相继出台，其核心主要体现在三个方面：首先，在购房限制上，除上海外，深圳等一线城 市的核心区域外，中国绝大多数城市已经全面放开限购，为更多潜在购房者敞开了大门。其次，金融政策持续宽松，银行的房贷利率已降至3.2%左右的历 史低位，首付比例也从原先的30%大幅降低至15%，有效降低了购房门槛。最后，国家在税收方面也采取了积极措施，通过减免契税和增值税，切实减轻了 购房家庭的经济负担。 展望2025年，业内专家分析认为，如果外部环境稳定，房地产市场将呈现以下五大趋势，购房者和投资者需提前了解，以便更好地规划置业计划： 1. 商品房逐步进入现房时代： 过去期房预售模式在一定程度上加速了房地产发展，但同时也带来了诸多问题。随着市场逐渐成熟，以及消费者对购房风险 的规避意识增强，开发商将更倾向于推出现房销售。这将有效提升购房者的安全感，也对开发商的资金实力和项目质量提出了更高要求。 2. 二手房市场面临严峻挑战： 目前，国内二手房挂牌量持续攀升，上海、重庆、成都等大型城市的挂牌数量已突破15万套，北京、武汉、广州、南 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 我们认为，广州市于2024年9月已实质放开居民家庭在本市购买住房的各项限购政策；此次提及更多是对已有 政策的进一步明确，向市场传递宽松的积极信号。此外，关于加快推进城中村改造将有利于带动更多购房需求 的释放，以及推进利用专项借款购买存量商品房作为安置房，或将助力地产进一步去库。 本周市场重要数据跟踪： 国务院总理李强6月13日主持召开国务院常务会议，会议指出：构建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场 平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。 要扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策 支持。要对全国房地产已供土地和在 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3377 | -0.75 | 0.06 | -0.25 | | 深证综指 | 2001 | -1.31 | 0.04 | -0.33 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | （％） | | 大盘指数 | -0.75 | -1.04 | -1.47 | | 中盘指数 | -0.8 | -0.62 | -6.18 | | 小盘指数 | -1.36 | -0.88 | -2.7 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油服工程 | 6.41 | 11.9 | 4.09 | | 地面兵装Ⅱ | 4.68 | 0.26 | 9.33 | | 贵金属 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 32.64 | | 军工电子Ⅱ | 1.74 | -0.65 ...