Core Insights - Dubai's residential real estate sales reached 262 billion dirhams (approximately 71.3 billion USD) in the first half of 2025, marking a 36% year-on-year increase with a transaction volume of 91,900, up 23% from the previous year [1] Sales Performance - Off-plan sales dominate the market, accounting for over 70% of total transactions, while the demand for ready properties is rising, achieving a quarterly record of 14,200 transactions from April to June [1] - Off-plan transactions totaled 64,500, reflecting a nearly 30% year-on-year growth, while ready property transactions increased by 10% [1] Market Dynamics - Approximately 21% of projects scheduled for completion this year have reached over 75% construction progress, indicating potential delivery delays [1] - Despite challenges, the market shows resilience and is expected to remain active, driven by first-time buyer incentive programs, gradually moving towards a more mature and balanced phase [1] Developer Rankings - Emaar, Damac, and Sobha continue to lead in transaction volume, with Beyond entering the top ten for the first time due to its Dubai Maritime City project [1] Future Developments - As of the end of this year, over 61,800 residential units are under construction in Dubai, with an expectation of more than 100,000 additional units to be added in 2026-2027 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $194 million or $1.92 per diluted share, up from $1.86 a year ago [22] - Adjusted net income was $204 million or $2.20 per diluted share, up from $1.97 a year ago [22] - Home closings revenue increased 2% to approximately $2 billion, with an average closing price of $589,000, slightly ahead of prior guidance [22][24] - The adjusted home closings gross margin was 23%, in line with prior guidance, while the home closings gross margin was 22.3% [25][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 3,340 homes, with 65% of closings coming from spec homes, up from 58% in the prior quarter [22][24] - The share of spec sales increased to a new high of 71%, including 50% in the Esplanade segment [12] - The second quarter orders consisted of 33% entry-level, 50% move-up, and 17% resort lifestyle homes [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall cancellation rate was 14.6% of gross orders, up from 9.4% a year ago, reflecting changes in consumer confidence [26] - The average credit score for buyers using Taylor Morrison home funding was 751, with a down payment of 22% and household income of $188,000 [29] - The company controlled 85,051 homebuilding lots, representing 6.4 years of supply [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a balanced portfolio of to-be-built and spec homes, primarily in attractive core submarkets [11] - The strategy includes prioritizing capital efficiency and returns over volume in a competitive marketplace [14] - The company plans to continue expanding its Esplanade brand, which has shown resilience in sales [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the sales environment has been softer than normal due to various economic factors, but they expect a more patient growth trajectory [7][14] - The company believes that the need for affordable new construction remains intact across its markets [14] - Management expressed confidence in their ability to generate mid to high teen returns on equity throughout the cycle [15] Other Important Information - The company has invested approximately $612 million in homebuilding land during the quarter, with a total anticipated investment of around $2.4 billion for the year [17] - The company ended the quarter with liquidity of approximately $1.1 billion, including $130 million of unrestricted cash [29] - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $100 million during the quarter, with a remaining repurchase authorization of $675 million [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Spec mix in the quarter - Management indicated that the increase in spec sales was driven by consumer preferences for inventory homes due to the current incentive environment [34][38] Question: Gross margin expectations - Management expects Q3 gross margin to be around 22%, with Q4 expected to be approximately 22% as well [44][45] Question: $3 billion facility with Kennedy Lewis - The facility is intended to provide balance sheet relief and greater optionality for asset disposition, with both current and prospective assets being considered [50][54] Question: Growth expectations for 2026 - Management has not provided specific guidance for 2026 but expects growth in the coming years, contingent on market conditions [60][62] Question: Cancellation rates - Management noted that cancellations were primarily due to buyers unable to sell their existing homes, but overall rates remain below industry averages [96][98]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing push for "existing house sales" in China's real estate market, highlighting the challenges and complexities involved in implementing such policies effectively [2][12]. Group 1: Current Policies and Trends - Hubei Jingmen has announced a policy to promote existing house sales starting in 2026, reflecting a growing recognition of the issues surrounding pre-sale housing [2]. - Over 30 provinces and cities in China have introduced policies related to existing house sales, with notable examples including Hainan and Xiong'an New Area [5][6]. - However, the actual implementation of these policies remains limited, with many being labeled as "pilot" programs or only applicable to "certain projects" [6][11]. Group 2: Challenges in Implementation - The term "principle" in policy discussions raises questions about flexibility and exceptions for developers, indicating potential difficulties in enforcing existing house sales [7]. - Developers face significant financial burdens as they must complete construction before selling, which is challenging in a sluggish real estate market [8][10]. - The cash flow issues for developers are exacerbated by the slow return on investment from existing house sales compared to pre-sales, which allow for immediate cash collection [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that a comprehensive shift to existing house sales is unlikely in the short term due to the complex relationships between developers, banks, and local governments [12][13]. - It emphasizes the need for a change in the overall financing model in the real estate sector to support the transition to existing house sales [13]. - The sentiment is that while the push for existing house sales is gaining traction, it may take a long time before it becomes a widespread reality [16].

Core Insights - The proportion of completed housing sales is significantly increasing in various cities, particularly in Shenzhen, where the share of completed sales reached 30.9% in the first half of 2025, up 6.3 percentage points from the second half of 2024, and only 14.6% in the first half of 2023 [2][3] Group 1: Current Market Trends - The trend towards completed housing sales is driven by longer sales cycles for new properties, leading some pre-sale projects to transition to completed sales [2][3] - In June 2025, the proportion of completed housing sales in Shenzhen reached 42%, indicating a strong market shift [2] - The increase in completed sales is also attributed to policy support advocating for "guaranteed delivery" and the promotion of completed housing sales [3][4] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Various regions are actively exploring and implementing policies to promote completed housing sales, with some cities mandating that newly sold land must be for completed properties [4] - The proportion of completed housing sales in total residential sales has risen from 10.4% in 2021 to 18.7% in 2023, reflecting a growing trend [4] - In the first half of 2024, the area sold as completed housing increased by 23% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales decreased by 31% [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift towards completed housing sales is influenced by a combination of policy direction, market logic, and the developmental stage of the industry [5] - Completed housing sales require developers to bear the full financial burden until project completion, increasing both capital and time costs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing trend of selling completed properties (现房) in various cities, particularly in Shenzhen, where the proportion of completed property sales has significantly risen, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [2][4][8]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - The proportion of completed property sales in Shenzhen has increased dramatically, with 30.9% of new residential sales being completed properties in the first half of 2025, up from 14.6% in the first half of 2023 [4]. - In June 2025, the completed property sales proportion reached 42%, reflecting a growing consumer preference for immediate occupancy [4]. - The rise in completed property sales is partly due to longer sales cycles for new properties, leading some pre-sale projects to transition to completed sales [4][5]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Response - Various cities are actively promoting completed property sales, with supportive policies being developed. For instance, in May 2023, the housing authority in Xinyang, Henan Province, mandated that all newly sold land must be for completed properties [8]. - The share of completed properties in total residential sales has increased from 10.4% in 2021 to 18.7% in 2023, with a notable increase in completed property sales area by 23% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [8]. - Industry experts suggest that the shift towards completed property sales is influenced by policy direction, market logic, and the current stage of industry development, although it requires developers to bear the full financial burden until project completion [9].

Group 1 - The overall real estate market showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with improved sales in core cities and increased land investment enthusiasm [1] - New residential sales in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced year-on-year growth, with Shenzhen seeing over 30% increase [1] - The inventory of new homes in key cities has decreased, leading to a shorter clearing cycle due to reduced supply and improved sales [1] Group 2 - The new housing market maintained strong resilience despite a slight decline in the second quarter, driven by the release of improvement demand [2] - High-priced improvement projects in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai performed well, with 90-120 square meter new homes accounting for around 40% of sales [2] - The proportion of existing home sales increased to 35.6%, with existing homes outperforming new homes, reflecting buyers' preference for immediate occupancy [2] Group 3 - The continuous release of improvement housing demand and the rise in existing home sales indicate a growing emphasis on living quality and delivery certainty among buyers [3] - Mid-to-high-end improvement products have become a significant force supporting market transactions, stabilizing market expectations in core cities [3] Group 4 - The recovery in sales has positively impacted the land market, with residential land transfer fees across 300 cities increasing by 24.5% year-on-year [4] - In the top 20 cities, land transfer fees accounted for 66% of the national total, with first-tier cities seeing a 47% increase in land transfer fees [5] Group 5 - The land market is experiencing structural recovery and gradual stabilization, with more cities witnessing bidding premiums and increased participation from developers [5] - Policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from pre-sale to actual housing sales is gaining momentum in China's real estate market, driven by government policies and market demand, indicating a shift towards a new sales model that emphasizes immediate availability and quality assurance for buyers [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since May, three key developments have sparked discussions on actual housing sales: new regulations in Henan province mandating actual sales for newly developed properties, the national financial regulatory authority's commitment to introduce financing systems compatible with new real estate models, and many companies promoting actual housing as a selling point [1]. - Over 30 provinces have introduced supportive policies for actual housing sales since the end of 2022, with cities like Hefei and Zhengzhou initiating pilot programs, and regions like Hainan and Xiong'an fully implementing actual sales [1]. - The proportion of actual housing sales in the residential market has increased from 12.7% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2024, reflecting a growing acceptance of this sales model [1]. Group 2: Benefits for Buyers - Actual housing sales provide a significant advantage for buyers by allowing them to see the property before purchase, thus avoiding issues related to off-plan sales such as discrepancies in property condition and delays in delivery [2]. - This model enhances the sense of security for buyers, as they can enjoy immediate occupancy and associated amenities, while also accelerating inventory turnover [2]. - The visible quality of homes can lead to a premium in core urban areas, where actual housing may command higher prices due to perceived value [2]. Group 3: Challenges for Developers - The shift to actual housing sales tests developers' comprehensive capabilities, including their development models, cash flow management, and product quality [2]. - The cash flow impact is significant, as the return on investment is delayed by 2 to 3 years compared to pre-sale models, necessitating a shift in financing strategies from short-term to long-term [2]. - Developers must abandon speed-focused strategies in favor of meticulous management and product enhancement, establishing a quality control system throughout the development process [2]. Group 4: Necessary Support Measures - To address potential challenges such as increased buyer costs and longer capital recovery periods for developers, supportive policies are essential [3]. - A dual-track system of "actual sales + pre-sales" should be established, with tailored measures for different cities, such as tax incentives for buyers in areas with high inventory [3]. - Diverse financing channels should be developed, including specialized loans for actual housing projects and adjustments to tax policies to alleviate financial burdens on developers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The city of Xinyang in Henan has become the first in China to fully implement a "current housing sales" policy, which requires that properties must be completed and pass inspection before they can be sold, effectively overturning the traditional pre-sale model [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy mandates that newly sold land must be sold as completed properties, meaning developers can only sell homes after they are built and inspected [3]. - Existing projects that have already started construction can still sell under the old pre-sale rules, creating a transitional phase for the market [3]. - This shift aims to reduce risks for homebuyers, as it minimizes the chances of unfinished projects and fraud [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Xinyang's real estate market is under significant pressure, with new home sales area expected to decline by 7.8% in 2024, and real estate investment plummeting by 16.2% [4]. - The city faces a severe population issue, with a net outflow of 2.79 million people, leading to a situation where one in three residents is leaving for work elsewhere [4]. - The number of newborns has drastically decreased from 89,000 in 2019 to just 37,000 in 2023, indicating a demographic crisis [4]. Group 3: National Trends - Over 30 provinces and cities across China have begun experimenting with current housing sales since late 2022, indicating a growing trend [6]. - The proportion of current housing sales nationwide has surged from 10% in 2020 to 32% by February 2025, marking a ten-year high [7]. - However, the transition to widespread current housing sales faces challenges, particularly due to the financial strain on developers, as construction timelines extend from two years to four or five years [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" is evident, with an increasing inventory of unsold homes leading to longer sales cycles [9]. - In Xinyang, the inventory turnover period is projected to be 20 months, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [9]. - The current housing sales model may lead to price differentiation, with premium properties in major cities seeing price increases, while weaker markets may experience accelerated market clearing [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the inventory status and development trends of typical real estate companies in 2024, focusing on inventory scale, structure, and investment intensity, highlighting a significant decline in total inventory and an increase in the proportion of completed housing inventory [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Total inventory of typical real estate companies decreased by 15% compared to the beginning of the year, marking a continuous decline for three years [4][5]. - Among 50 typical listed companies, the total inventory value reached 7.98 trillion yuan, down from 9.4 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 [5]. - The decline in inventory is most pronounced among companies ranked 51-100, with a drop of 22.3%, while the top 10 companies experienced a smaller decline of 12.4% [7]. - Completed inventory accounted for 27% of total inventory, reaching a five-year high, with a 5.6 percentage point increase from the beginning of the year [10][12]. Group 2: Current Housing Inventory - The scale of completed housing inventory grew by 7% compared to the beginning of the year, with state-owned enterprises showing the highest increase of 22.7% [14][16]. - Nearly 60% of real estate companies reported an increase in completed inventory, indicating persistent pressure on current housing inventory [21]. - The inventory impairment ratio rose to 4.42%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [22][25]. Group 3: Investment and Inventory Management - The proportion of inventory to total assets decreased to 47.5%, with 86% of companies experiencing a decline in this ratio [26][28]. - The weighted average inventory turnover rate for 50 typical companies was 0.35 times per year, slightly down from the beginning of the year [26][28]. - Companies are focusing on high-quality investments and strategies to quickly liquidate completed inventory to alleviate pressure [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of "existing house sales" as a new model in real estate development, with pilot programs already in progress across various regions in China [1] Group 1: Current Status of Existing House Sales - At least 30 provinces and cities in China have issued documents to promote pilot programs for existing house sales, with 18 cities implementing substantial support measures [1] - The proportion of existing house sales in total residential sales has increased from 12.7% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2024, marking an 18.1 percentage point rise over five years [1] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The current real estate market conditions indicate that the timing for a comprehensive rollout of existing house sales is not yet mature [1] - Existing house sales involve a complex system that includes finance, land, and industry ecology, necessitating a cautious approach rather than a one-size-fits-all solution [1] - It is recommended to continue with local pilot programs and further refine supporting policies to gradually advance the initiative [1]