另外，经历过一些房企爆雷的事儿后，买房人现在最看重的就是 "能不能顺利交房"。所以 2026 年，现房会更抢手，期房没人敢轻易买。2025 年现房销售占 比已经达到 35.6%，比之前涨了 4.8 个百分点，2026 年这个比例肯定还会上升。毕竟谁也不想花了一辈子积蓄，最后房子烂尾，所以 "看得见、摸得着" 的 现房，会成为很多人的首选。 第三个趋势：保障房大量上线，60% 家庭不用买商品房2026 年，"保障房 商品房" 的双轨制会越来越完善，简单说就是，想住刚需房的，有保障房可以选； 想住好房子的，就买商品房。按照规划，未来三年，60% 的家庭都能通过保障房解决住房问题，2026 年正是保障房集中供应的年份。 这种保障房就像新加坡的组屋，同一个地段，保障房价格只有商品房的 20?0%，便宜不少，刚好满足刚需家庭的需求。这就意味着，以后刚需不用再硬着 头皮凑钱买高价商品房了，能减轻不少压力。而商品房市场会更偏向改善和高端需求，价格也会更平稳，不会再像以前那样大起大落。对于买房人来说，要 是预算有限、只是想解决居住问题，2026 年可以多关注保障房的申请；要是想改善居住品质，再考虑商品房就行。 第四个趋势：政 ...

时隔一年，现房销售的政策定位实现显著升级。 12月22日至23日召开的全国住房城乡建设工作会议，明确提及"推进现房销售制，实现'所见即所得'， 从根本上防范交付风险"。在去年的全国住房城乡建设工作会议上，相关表述是"有力有序推行现房销 售"，并将其列为2025年住房和城乡建设部重点工作之一。 今年下半年以来，不论是住建部部长在《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》辅导读本中的表态，还是相关政策试点城市队伍的大扩容，都印证了这样一个变化——"现房销 售"这个业界一度讳莫如深的概念正一步步成为现实。 对于这一点，克而瑞（易居中国旗下不动产垂直领域数字化服务平台）曾在一份报告中提出建议，需要 开发"现房开发贷"及销售回款定金等创新金融工具，银行、信托等金融机构需要针对现房销售特点设计 专门的融资产品，以缓解房企长期资金压力；还需要调整土地出让方式和付款条件，如延长土地出让金 缴纳期限，或允许分期支付，以缓解开发商资金压力。 在现房销售背景下，购房者可以实地看房，决策更谨慎，需求更趋理性，市场投机行为减少。在当前许 多城市库存高企的背景下，现房销售可以有效控制新增供应节奏，避免在需求不足时继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shift towards 100% completed property sales in China represents a significant transformation in the real estate sales system, moving from a pre-sale model to a completed sales model, which is expected to impact housing prices and investment strategies in the long term [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Changes - A residential land plot in Shenzhen recently sold for 42,000 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 65%, indicating strong market demand [1]. - Since late 2022, over 30 regions in China have begun to support or implement completed property sales, marking a shift from trial to broader adoption [1][3]. - The proportion of completed property sales in the national residential market has increased from approximately 12.7% in 2020 to over 30% in 2024, reflecting a significant trend change [3]. Group 2: Price Implications - The transition to completed property sales is likely to lead to structural price increases, as developers face longer sales cycles and increased financial pressures [4]. - Developers with strong financial capabilities, such as state-owned enterprises and top-tier private companies, are expected to thrive in this new environment, focusing on high-quality products that can command premium prices [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding high-leverage and low-quality developers, as the new sales model will accelerate industry consolidation [5]. - The focus should shift towards core assets and high-quality properties, particularly in major cities and desirable locations, as these will demonstrate greater resilience and value retention [5][6]. - The investment mindset should transition from speculation to long-term asset allocation, prioritizing completed or near-completed properties that can withstand market fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales model in China is set to undergo a fundamental transformation by gradually phasing out pre-sale of properties and shifting towards selling completed homes, with significant changes expected during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly around 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Current Issues - The traditional pre-sale system has allowed developers to sell properties before they are built, leading to significant risks for buyers, including the "unfinished building" problem, where projects are halted, leaving buyers in financial distress [3][5]. - The recent downturn in the real estate market has highlighted the vulnerabilities of the pre-sale model, prompting a shift in policy direction to protect consumer rights and address financial risks within the industry [3][5]. Group 2: Impacts of the Shift to Completed Home Sales - The transition to selling completed homes is expected to significantly reduce transaction risks for buyers, allowing them to inspect properties before purchase, thereby enhancing consumer confidence and satisfaction [5][9]. - This change will raise the entry barriers for real estate companies, as they will need to rely on their own funds or compliant financing to complete projects before selling, potentially leading to the elimination of weaker firms from the market [6][8]. - The focus on completed homes will shift market competition from speculative designs to actual product quality, encouraging developers to improve construction standards and customer service, fostering a more refined and quality-driven industry [8][9]. Group 3: Market Stabilization and Transition - Implementing the completed home sales model will likely extend the timeline for new home supply, which may help alleviate existing inventory pressures in certain cities and stabilize market expectations [9][11]. - A gradual approach to this significant reform is necessary, as it involves adjustments in various aspects of real estate development, financing, and land supply, requiring careful planning and support from financial institutions [9][11]. Group 4: Conclusion - The move towards eliminating pre-sale and promoting completed home sales is not merely a change in sales strategy but aims to fundamentally protect buyer rights, enhance industry standards, and promote long-term stability in the real estate market, marking the beginning of a more transparent and quality-focused era [11].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is accelerating the supply of residential land, with a recent requirement for "existing house sales" for a new residential plot, indicating a shift in the local real estate market strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Land Supply and Sales Policy - Shenzhen's Planning and Natural Resources Bureau has listed a residential plot (B405-0308) in Futian, with a land area of 4,994 square meters and a starting price of 480 million yuan, set for auction on December 10 [1]. - The plot requires all residential units to be sold as existing houses, marking the second instance of such a requirement in recent years in Shenzhen [1]. Group 2: National Trends in Existing House Sales - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need to reform the real estate development, financing, and sales systems, promoting existing house sales to mitigate delivery risks [2]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the total area of existing house sales reached approximately 23,305.93 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for 35.4% of total residential sales [2]. Group 3: Market Adaptation and Project Suitability - Existing house sales reduce delivery times and lower consumer rights protection risks, but they also increase cost pressures for real estate companies [3]. - Major real estate firms are advised to leverage their financial strength to adopt existing house sales, while smaller firms may need to collaborate on projects to adapt to this model [3]. - High-quality projects in hot urban areas, customized villas, and regions with high inventory and low consumer confidence are identified as suitable for existing house sales, which could help boost market confidence [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, emphasizing the shift from concerns about affordability to issues related to selling properties, highlighting the need for a reassessment of property values in the current economic climate [2][4]. Market Trends - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with a slight price increase in new homes during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, while the second-hand housing market continues to adjust [3]. - The construction of new commercial housing is projected to see a 12.9% year-on-year decline in sales area for 2024, with an increasing number of second-hand homes listed for sale since the second half of 2023 [10]. Policy Direction - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting focus from merely increasing supply to improving the quality of housing [8][11]. - The plan aims to increase the supply of improvement housing, which refers to new homes purchased to enhance living quality, rather than just meeting basic housing needs [11]. Housing Quality - Key aspects of what constitutes a "good house" include safety, comfort, green technology, and smart features, with a focus on improving property management and quality of service [12][14]. - The article suggests implementing a full lifecycle safety management system for homes, including regular safety inspections and quality insurance [14][15]. Sales Model Transformation - The promotion of a "current housing sales system" aims to mitigate delivery risks associated with pre-sale models, ensuring buyers receive what they see [15][17]. - The proportion of current housing sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33% at the beginning of this year, indicating a trend towards this model [17]. Demographic Shifts - The article notes that the aging population and urbanization trends are influencing housing demand, with a significant focus on improving housing for the elderly and accommodating young families in major cities [22][24]. - The core urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Hangzhou expected to see a population increase of 102,000 in 2024 [18]. Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that the real estate market will continue to adjust and stabilize, with significant differentiation between core and non-core areas in major cities [21]. - Recommendations include monitoring housing prices in core urban areas and considering rental options in less populated cities [21][24]. Future Policy Recommendations - Potential policy measures include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing purchase restrictions in major cities, and encouraging investment in quality housing projects [23][26]. - The article also discusses innovative approaches to managing unsold properties, such as converting them into rental units or public housing [24].

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market is facing significant challenges, with a notable increase in the number of cities experiencing declines in both new and second-hand residential property prices [1][3] Market Trends - In August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that out of 70 major cities, 50 saw a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, while 56 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, marking an increase of 10 and 5 cities respectively compared to the previous month [1] - Year-on-year, 49 cities reported a decrease in new residential prices, and 61 cities in second-hand prices, indicating a persistent downward trend in the housing market [1] Buyer Behavior - The era of speculative real estate investment is over, with increasing risks for investors. However, first-time homebuyers with genuine needs, such as marriage and education, still view purchasing property as essential [3] - The continuous reduction in mortgage rates has significantly lowered the cost of homeownership for these first-time buyers [3] Expert Recommendations - Industry experts advise first-time buyers to follow the principle of "buy now, buy low, and avoid distant properties" [4][6] - "Buy now" emphasizes purchasing ready-to-move-in homes rather than off-plan properties, allowing buyers to assess quality and avoid potential risks associated with unfinished projects [4] - "Buy low" suggests opting for low-rise buildings over high-rise ones, as they typically have lower shared areas, better safety features, and greater convenience [6] - "Avoid distant properties" highlights the risks associated with purchasing in remote areas, where infrastructure may be lacking and property values could decline more sharply in a downturn [6]

Real Estate Sector - Housing prices are no longer experiencing a uniform decline, with core areas in first-tier cities potentially seeing a value recovery. Prices in some second and third-tier cities have dropped significantly, but the downward trend is expected to slow down after September [2] - The supply of existing homes is increasing as the market shifts away from pre-sold properties, which have faced issues like unfinished projects. Leading developers are expected to have over 50% of their new offerings as existing homes, providing buyers with more confidence [3] Automotive Market - New car prices are being reduced, with domestic brands offering discounts of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, while luxury imported cars are seeing reductions of nearly 100,000 yuan. For instance, a popular domestic SUV's price has dropped from 150,000 yuan to 128,000 yuan [4] - The second-hand car market is experiencing rapid depreciation, particularly for electric vehicles, with losses of 60,000 to 80,000 yuan within a year. Consumers are advised to act quickly if they plan to change cars [6] - The price reductions in the automotive market are attributed to oversupply and intense competition, especially in the electric vehicle sector [7] Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - The purchasing power of consumers is stabilizing, with a decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% year-on-year as of August 2025, indicating that prices for everyday goods are either stable or declining [9] - The stability in prices is largely due to the lack of significant monetary flow into consumer markets and a slowdown in income growth, leading to cautious consumer spending [10] - Starting in September, various regions will implement measures to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of consumer vouchers that can be used across multiple sectors [12] - Businesses are also expected to offer discounts in conjunction with government initiatives, enhancing the overall value for consumers [14] Summary of Changes - The anticipated changes in the real estate and automotive markets, along with consumer behavior adjustments, reflect a more rational market environment and policy efforts aimed at easing consumer spending [20]

Group 1 - The Supreme People's Court has ruled that homebuyers facing unfinished properties can legally terminate their purchase contracts and loan agreements, relieving them of repayment obligations for loans on properties that have not been delivered [4][5][6] - A significant case involving a buyer from Yancheng, Jiangsu, illustrates the ruling's implications, where the court ordered the developer to refund the buyer's down payment and loan principal, along with interest, while also relieving the buyer of further loan obligations [6][7] - The ruling marks a pivotal shift in the legal landscape, emphasizing that financial contracts cannot override principles of fairness and justice, thus protecting homebuyers from undue financial burdens in cases of project abandonment [10][12] Group 2 - The prevalence of unfinished properties has reached alarming levels, with approximately 2.31 million unfinished homes reported nationwide, affecting over a million families and raising significant social stability concerns [14] - The shift from a pre-sale system to a focus on selling completed properties is becoming mainstream, as the drawbacks of the pre-sale model have become increasingly apparent, leading to a redefinition of market rules [15] - This new legal precedent signals a transformation in buyer confidence, encouraging a preference for completed properties to mitigate risks associated with unfinished developments [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of buying a home that provides a sense of security and happiness, advocating for purchasing existing or slightly used properties rather than new developments that may carry risks [1] Group 1: Buying Strategy - The article suggests the strategy of "buy old, buy big, and avoid three types" to navigate the housing market effectively [3] - It highlights the advantages of purchasing existing homes or newer second-hand properties, which offer more reliability compared to off-plan properties [3][6] - The article warns against the risks of buying off-plan properties, which may lead to delays and uncertainties in possession [9][12] Group 2: Property Types to Avoid - It identifies three types of properties to avoid: old and dilapidated homes, apartments, and illegal constructions [24] - Old properties, particularly those over twenty years old, are prone to maintenance issues and may lack modern amenities, making them difficult to sell later [26] - Apartments are criticized for high communal costs and poor living conditions, while illegal constructions pose legal risks of demolition [28][30] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The article stresses the importance of choosing larger homes to accommodate future family needs, thus avoiding the hassle of moving again [15][23] - It notes that larger homes tend to retain value better in fluctuating markets, making them a safer investment [20] - The article concludes by encouraging buyers to focus on the essence of properties rather than being swayed by flashy marketing [33]