市场不缺购买力，只缺确定性。谁能给确定性，谁就能拿到流量。 中房报记者 许倩丨天津报道 新春佳节，津城年味浓郁，房地产市场却显得有些平淡。 大年初八下午，天津市南开区某楼盘售楼处。记者推门而入，映入眼帘的不是促销海报，而是两块醒目的展板：一张是"关于落定九年一贯制学校的公 告"，上面写着"小学确定为五马路小学教育集团，中学确定为南开学校教育集团""业主可凭相关资料办理小学及中学入学手续"；旁边一张则是关于百年 名校南开中学升学率的介绍。 这样的学区宣传，在天津新房项目中几乎已是标配。河北区某楼盘售楼处外墙，巨幅标语写着"十二年制，小外学府"；河西区多个楼盘，则被中介冠 以"河西陪读改善房"的宣传标签，低总价楼盘备受陪读妈妈们青睐。 但宣传火热，现场较为冷清。 记者走访天津市多家新房售楼处发现，尽管多个楼盘"春节不打烊"，并推出特价房源、新春置业礼包、减免物业费等活动，却难改成交乏力、观望情绪浓 厚的现实。看房者寥寥无几，冷静和谨慎仍是主流。 4.0产品、现房撑起"春节档" 位于天津市南开区的格调观麟花园，属于天拖板块，承担着城市更新改善型需求。一期将于2026年12月交付，二期将于2028年底交付。 谈到项目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is filled with uncertainty, leading potential homebuyers to feel confused. Industry experts suggest adhering to the seven-character mantra of "buy small, buy old, do not buy three" for making prudent property purchases in the next two years [1] Group 1: Buy Small - For young families with urgent housing needs, it is advisable to prioritize small apartments over larger ones. This is due to three reasons: first, small apartments have a lower total price, which reduces monthly payment pressure; second, expenses related to decoration and furniture are less, making daily cleaning easier; third, costs such as property fees, heating fees, and maintenance funds are lower, alleviating financial burdens [3] Group 2: Buy Old - The term "old" refers to purchasing completed properties or relatively new second-hand homes rather than old houses. The frequent occurrence of unfinished properties has led to significant financial losses for buyers, increasing calls to eliminate pre-sale properties. Buying completed or relatively new homes allows buyers to conduct on-site evaluations of the property, including layout, floor, and quality, thus effectively avoiding risks associated with unfinished buildings and quality issues of pre-sale properties [4] Group 3: Do Not Buy Three - The phrase "do not buy three" indicates avoiding the purchase of old, dilapidated small properties, properties in remote areas, and high-rise buildings [5] Subgroup: Avoid Old and Dilapidated Properties - Old and dilapidated properties are often characterized by outdated construction, with severely aging structural and utility systems. Additionally, these properties typically have poor price resilience, often leading to a situation where they are priced but not sold. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid purchasing old and dilapidated properties in city centers [6] Subgroup: Avoid Remote Area Properties - While properties in suburban areas may have lower total prices, they often lack essential amenities such as hospitals, schools, supermarkets, and public transportation, resulting in a poor living experience. Furthermore, suburban properties exhibit the weakest price resilience, making them the first to suffer in the event of a price decline. Caution is advised when considering properties in remote areas [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China presents significant challenges for homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, due to high property prices that require substantial financial commitment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of October 2022, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 16,199 yuan per square meter, while the average price for second-hand homes was 15,945 yuan per square meter, indicating that purchasing a typical home requires at least 1.2 million to 2 million yuan [1] Group 2: Recommendations for First-Time Buyers - Experts advise first-time homebuyers to follow the principle of "buy more, buy existing, and avoid old" to make informed decisions in the current market [3] Group 3: Buying Strategies - "Buy more" suggests prioritizing low-rise residential buildings over high-rise ones due to advantages such as smaller shared areas, better ventilation and lighting, and easier resale potential [4] - "Buy existing" emphasizes the importance of purchasing completed properties to avoid risks associated with unfinished projects and to ensure quality and suitability through direct inspection [4] - "Avoid old" recommends steering clear of properties older than 30 years, as they often face challenges in securing bank loans and have higher depreciation risks compared to new properties [6]

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to exhibit four major trends, indicating a shift from the previous notion that "any property will appreciate" to a more selective approach in property investment [1][8]. Trend Analysis - **Urban Disparity**: There will be an increasing gap in property values between high-demand cities and those with declining populations. Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu are expected to see stable or slightly rising prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to experience price declines. For instance, new home prices in Shanghai's core areas rose by 5.6% year-on-year in 2025, while properties in less populated areas may take years to sell due to oversupply [1][3]. - **Shift to Improved Housing**: The demand for larger, more comfortable homes is rising, with properties sized between 120-144 square meters becoming increasingly popular. In the first five months of 2025, these larger units accounted for 30% of transactions in 30 major cities. Additionally, buyers are prioritizing properties that can be delivered on time, leading to a rise in the sales of completed homes, which reached 35.6% in 2025, up by 4.8 percentage points [3][5]. - **Increase in Affordable Housing**: By 2026, a dual system of affordable and market-rate housing is expected to be more established, with 60% of families potentially able to access affordable housing options. This will alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers, as affordable housing can be priced at 20% lower than market-rate homes in the same area [5][7]. - **Supportive Policies**: The government is likely to continue implementing supportive policies to stimulate reasonable housing demand, including potential interest rate cuts and increased availability of housing subsidies. This could lead to lower monthly mortgage payments for buyers, making homeownership more accessible [5][7]. Recommendations for Buyers - Focus on acquiring core assets in major cities rather than spreading investments across multiple lower-tier properties, as evidenced by a 20% increase in second-hand home transactions in major cities in early 2025 [7]. - Pay attention to the benefits of old community renovations, as the government has allocated 33.2 billion yuan for such projects, which could enhance property values in renovated areas [7]. - First-time buyers should act promptly if suitable properties arise, especially those eligible for affordable housing, while those looking to upgrade should compare options during favorable policy conditions [7]. - Abandon speculative investment strategies, as the market is shifting towards a "housing for living" approach rather than for profit [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The policy shift towards promoting "existing home sales" aims to fundamentally mitigate delivery risks and enhance buyer confidence in the real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting emphasized the implementation of existing home sales, marking a significant upgrade from previous policies [1]. - The transition from a pre-sale model to an existing home sales model reflects a growing recognition of the need to address delivery uncertainties and protect buyer rights [2]. Group 2: Impact on Developers - Existing home sales require developers to invest all construction funds upfront, extending the cash flow cycle from months to two to three years, thereby raising industry entry barriers [2]. - Developers are shifting their operational focus towards cash flow management and product quality, moving away from financing and marketing strategies [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The introduction of existing home sales is expected to lead to short-term challenges, such as a potential decline in new home supply, but will ultimately promote a balanced supply-demand relationship in the long term [2]. - The market is likely to see a reduction in speculative behavior as buyers can physically inspect properties before making decisions, leading to more rational demand [3]. Group 4: Financial Innovations - Recommendations have been made for the development of financial tools tailored to existing home sales, such as "existing home development loans" to alleviate long-term funding pressures on developers [3]. - Adjustments in land transfer methods and payment conditions are suggested to further ease financial burdens on developers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The shift towards 100% completed property sales in China represents a significant transformation in the real estate sales system, moving from a pre-sale model to a completed sales model, which is expected to impact housing prices and investment strategies in the long term [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Changes - A residential land plot in Shenzhen recently sold for 42,000 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 65%, indicating strong market demand [1]. - Since late 2022, over 30 regions in China have begun to support or implement completed property sales, marking a shift from trial to broader adoption [1][3]. - The proportion of completed property sales in the national residential market has increased from approximately 12.7% in 2020 to over 30% in 2024, reflecting a significant trend change [3]. Group 2: Price Implications - The transition to completed property sales is likely to lead to structural price increases, as developers face longer sales cycles and increased financial pressures [4]. - Developers with strong financial capabilities, such as state-owned enterprises and top-tier private companies, are expected to thrive in this new environment, focusing on high-quality products that can command premium prices [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding high-leverage and low-quality developers, as the new sales model will accelerate industry consolidation [5]. - The focus should shift towards core assets and high-quality properties, particularly in major cities and desirable locations, as these will demonstrate greater resilience and value retention [5][6]. - The investment mindset should transition from speculation to long-term asset allocation, prioritizing completed or near-completed properties that can withstand market fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales model in China is set to undergo a fundamental transformation by gradually phasing out pre-sale of properties and shifting towards selling completed homes, with significant changes expected during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly around 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Current Issues - The traditional pre-sale system has allowed developers to sell properties before they are built, leading to significant risks for buyers, including the "unfinished building" problem, where projects are halted, leaving buyers in financial distress [3][5]. - The recent downturn in the real estate market has highlighted the vulnerabilities of the pre-sale model, prompting a shift in policy direction to protect consumer rights and address financial risks within the industry [3][5]. Group 2: Impacts of the Shift to Completed Home Sales - The transition to selling completed homes is expected to significantly reduce transaction risks for buyers, allowing them to inspect properties before purchase, thereby enhancing consumer confidence and satisfaction [5][9]. - This change will raise the entry barriers for real estate companies, as they will need to rely on their own funds or compliant financing to complete projects before selling, potentially leading to the elimination of weaker firms from the market [6][8]. - The focus on completed homes will shift market competition from speculative designs to actual product quality, encouraging developers to improve construction standards and customer service, fostering a more refined and quality-driven industry [8][9]. Group 3: Market Stabilization and Transition - Implementing the completed home sales model will likely extend the timeline for new home supply, which may help alleviate existing inventory pressures in certain cities and stabilize market expectations [9][11]. - A gradual approach to this significant reform is necessary, as it involves adjustments in various aspects of real estate development, financing, and land supply, requiring careful planning and support from financial institutions [9][11]. Group 4: Conclusion - The move towards eliminating pre-sale and promoting completed home sales is not merely a change in sales strategy but aims to fundamentally protect buyer rights, enhance industry standards, and promote long-term stability in the real estate market, marking the beginning of a more transparent and quality-focused era [11].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is accelerating the supply of residential land, with a recent requirement for "existing house sales" for a new residential plot, indicating a shift in the local real estate market strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Land Supply and Sales Policy - Shenzhen's Planning and Natural Resources Bureau has listed a residential plot (B405-0308) in Futian, with a land area of 4,994 square meters and a starting price of 480 million yuan, set for auction on December 10 [1]. - The plot requires all residential units to be sold as existing houses, marking the second instance of such a requirement in recent years in Shenzhen [1]. Group 2: National Trends in Existing House Sales - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need to reform the real estate development, financing, and sales systems, promoting existing house sales to mitigate delivery risks [2]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the total area of existing house sales reached approximately 23,305.93 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for 35.4% of total residential sales [2]. Group 3: Market Adaptation and Project Suitability - Existing house sales reduce delivery times and lower consumer rights protection risks, but they also increase cost pressures for real estate companies [3]. - Major real estate firms are advised to leverage their financial strength to adopt existing house sales, while smaller firms may need to collaborate on projects to adapt to this model [3]. - High-quality projects in hot urban areas, customized villas, and regions with high inventory and low consumer confidence are identified as suitable for existing house sales, which could help boost market confidence [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, emphasizing the shift from concerns about affordability to issues related to selling properties, highlighting the need for a reassessment of property values in the current economic climate [2][4]. Market Trends - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with a slight price increase in new homes during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, while the second-hand housing market continues to adjust [3]. - The construction of new commercial housing is projected to see a 12.9% year-on-year decline in sales area for 2024, with an increasing number of second-hand homes listed for sale since the second half of 2023 [10]. Policy Direction - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting focus from merely increasing supply to improving the quality of housing [8][11]. - The plan aims to increase the supply of improvement housing, which refers to new homes purchased to enhance living quality, rather than just meeting basic housing needs [11]. Housing Quality - Key aspects of what constitutes a "good house" include safety, comfort, green technology, and smart features, with a focus on improving property management and quality of service [12][14]. - The article suggests implementing a full lifecycle safety management system for homes, including regular safety inspections and quality insurance [14][15]. Sales Model Transformation - The promotion of a "current housing sales system" aims to mitigate delivery risks associated with pre-sale models, ensuring buyers receive what they see [15][17]. - The proportion of current housing sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33% at the beginning of this year, indicating a trend towards this model [17]. Demographic Shifts - The article notes that the aging population and urbanization trends are influencing housing demand, with a significant focus on improving housing for the elderly and accommodating young families in major cities [22][24]. - The core urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Hangzhou expected to see a population increase of 102,000 in 2024 [18]. Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that the real estate market will continue to adjust and stabilize, with significant differentiation between core and non-core areas in major cities [21]. - Recommendations include monitoring housing prices in core urban areas and considering rental options in less populated cities [21][24]. Future Policy Recommendations - Potential policy measures include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing purchase restrictions in major cities, and encouraging investment in quality housing projects [23][26]. - The article also discusses innovative approaches to managing unsold properties, such as converting them into rental units or public housing [24].

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market is facing significant challenges, with a notable increase in the number of cities experiencing declines in both new and second-hand residential property prices [1][3] Market Trends - In August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that out of 70 major cities, 50 saw a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, while 56 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, marking an increase of 10 and 5 cities respectively compared to the previous month [1] - Year-on-year, 49 cities reported a decrease in new residential prices, and 61 cities in second-hand prices, indicating a persistent downward trend in the housing market [1] Buyer Behavior - The era of speculative real estate investment is over, with increasing risks for investors. However, first-time homebuyers with genuine needs, such as marriage and education, still view purchasing property as essential [3] - The continuous reduction in mortgage rates has significantly lowered the cost of homeownership for these first-time buyers [3] Expert Recommendations - Industry experts advise first-time buyers to follow the principle of "buy now, buy low, and avoid distant properties" [4][6] - "Buy now" emphasizes purchasing ready-to-move-in homes rather than off-plan properties, allowing buyers to assess quality and avoid potential risks associated with unfinished projects [4] - "Buy low" suggests opting for low-rise buildings over high-rise ones, as they typically have lower shared areas, better safety features, and greater convenience [6] - "Avoid distant properties" highlights the risks associated with purchasing in remote areas, where infrastructure may be lacking and property values could decline more sharply in a downturn [6]