Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies in China, which are contributing to stable economic performance, as evidenced by the fiscal data for the first seven months of the year [1][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total general fiscal revenue was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1]. - General fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [1]. - The fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47% [1]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue, often referred to as the "economic barometer," has shown improvement, with stable growth in VAT and significant increases in securities transaction stamp duty due to active stock market trading [2]. - The decline in tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of only 0.3% for the first seven months, compared to a 3.5% decline in the first quarter [1][2]. Land Sales and Local Government Revenue - The revenue from land sales, a component of local government funds, was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [3]. - Major cities have increased the supply of quality land to stabilize the real estate market, contributing to a recovery in land sale revenues [2]. Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The government is accelerating bond issuance to maintain fiscal expenditure levels, particularly in social welfare sectors such as social security, education, and healthcare [4]. Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to support economic growth and social stability [6]. - Despite concerns about potential reductions in fiscal spending in the second half of the year, estimates suggest that the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth rate could remain between 4.1% and 6.7% [5].

Group 1 - The article highlights the acceleration of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds issuance, indicating that broad fiscal spending is likely to maintain a certain level of intensity [1][8] - The Ministry of Finance reports that in the first seven months of this year, broad fiscal revenue totaled approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, while broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.3% [2][3] - The fiscal expenditure significantly exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47%, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [2][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue, often seen as an economic barometer, showed a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter but improved in the following months, resulting in a decrease of only 0.3% in the first seven months [3][5] - The land transfer income for local governments decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, amounting to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, but the decline is narrowing [5][6] - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting broad fiscal expenditure [7] Group 3 - The central and local governments are accelerating bond issuance to maintain spending expansion, focusing on major projects and risk prevention [6][9] - The recent policies aimed at enhancing social welfare, such as pension increases and childcare subsidies, indicate a shift towards investing more in human capital [7][9] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in China has turned positive for the first time in 2023, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% in the first seven months, while expenditure grew by 3.4% [2] Revenue Summary - From January to July, the total public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth this year [2] - Tax revenue, which is a key component of public budget revenue, totaled 110,933 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing [2] - In July alone, tax revenue was 18,018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [2] - Major tax categories showed varied performance: - Value-added tax increased by 3% - Consumption tax rose by 2.1% - Corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% - Personal income tax surged by 8.8% [3][4] Expenditure Summary - Total public budget expenditure from January to July was 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6] - Expenditure on social security and employment grew by 9.8%, while education and health expenditures increased by 5.7% and 5.3%, respectively [6] - The expenditure growth rate is slower than the revenue growth, indicating a cautious fiscal approach [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy will continue to play a crucial role in stabilizing domestic demand and confidence, with expectations of increased fiscal measures in the latter half of the year [7] - The potential for further fiscal spending is anticipated, especially through special government bonds and adjustments to the deficit [7]

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in both revenue and expenditure growth in July 2025, primarily driven by improved tax revenue and proactive government spending focused on public welfare [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [1]. - Tax revenue showed a significant rebound, while non-tax revenue continued to decline, indicating a shift towards improved tax collection [1]. - Local revenue growth outpaced that of the central government, alleviating some fiscal pressure at the local level [1]. - Specific tax categories such as domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed marginal improvements, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting a more active stock market [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure rose by 3.4% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with July showing a recovery in growth [2]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth rates and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints from revenue [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included health care and social security, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [2]. - Government fund revenue growth saw a marginal decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months, influenced by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2]. Government Fund Expenditure Summary - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with central and local levels growing by 4.5 times and 18.1%, respectively [3]. - The acceleration in bond issuance and utilization was a significant factor driving this growth, with 2.89 trillion yuan allocated to government fund budget expenditures [3]. - Despite a slight decline in the growth rate of government fund budget expenditure in July, it remained at a high level [3]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that there are positive signs in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with improved tax collection and accelerated local revenue growth helping to ease fiscal pressures [3]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [3]. - The ongoing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, require close monitoring, with expectations for continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [3].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the national general public budget revenue showed the highest growth in July, with the cumulative growth for January to July turning positive for the first time this year [1][5]. Revenue Performance - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 202.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, marking the highest monthly growth of the year [3]. - For the period of January to July, the total national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.1%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a significant narrowing of decline, with July tax revenue at 180.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, continuing to recover since April [8]. - From January to July, total tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, down by 0.3%, but this decline was 0.9 percentage points less than in the first half of the year. Domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3% and 2.1% respectively, with increases of 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half [8]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with tax revenue from railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment growing by 33%, and computer and communication equipment by 10.1% [10]. - The scientific research and technical service industry saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors grew by 4.1% [10]. Expenditure Overview - National general public budget expenditure maintained growth, with total expenditure from January to July reaching 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [11]. - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment, which grew by 9.8%, education by 5.7%, and health by 5.3%, while housing security expenditure saw a slight increase of 0.2% [13].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.1%, up from -0.3% in the previous period[1] - General public budget expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of +3.4%, unchanged from the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.7%, improving from -2.4% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by +31.7%, compared to +30.0% in the previous period[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In July, tax revenue increased by +5.0% year-on-year, marking an improvement for two consecutive months[3] - The four major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic consumption tax growing by +5.38% and corporate income tax rising by +6.36%[4] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of +13.92%, the highest among major tax categories, driven by low base effects and stock market gains[5] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue growth slowed to +8.9% in July, down from +20.8% the previous month, with land use rights revenue increasing by +7.2%[22] - Government fund budget expenditure growth also decreased to +42.4% from +79.2% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures declining by -4.1%[22] Infrastructure Investment and Economic Outlook - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.81%, improving by 4.99 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The cumulative completion rate for general public budget revenue in the first seven months was 58.2%, lower than the average of the past five years[14] - The government is expected to have room for further fiscal policy adjustments to stabilize the domestic economy in the second half of the year[34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, fiscal revenue improved marginally, and fiscal expenditure maintained a relatively high growth rate. However, there is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure in the future [1][4]. - Fiscal revenue improvement mainly came from tax revenue, with VAT and corporate income tax contributing more to tax growth. Fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In July 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 2.65% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.3%), with tax revenue up 5.0% (previous value: 1.0%) and non - tax revenue down 12.93% (previous value: - 3.7%), showing an improved revenue structure [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue Composition**: In July, the four major taxes all performed well. Domestic VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year, consumption tax by 5.4%, corporate income tax by 6.4%, and individual income tax by 13.9%. VAT and corporate income tax contributed more to the year - on - year tax growth. Export tax rebates decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and real - estate - related taxes decreased by 3.8%. Vehicle purchase tax decreased by 13.8%. In June, stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty increased by 24.2% and 125.4% respectively [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 20.8%). Considering the time lag between land transactions and government fund revenue and the weak real - estate investment growth, its sustainability needs further observation [1][17]. - **Accumulated Revenue**: From January to July, the accumulated general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, in line with the annual budget, but the structure was poor. Tax revenue growth was - 0.3%, lower than the budgeted 3.7%, while non - tax revenue growth was 2.0%, higher than the budgeted - 14.2%. Government bond fund revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the narrowing decline's sustainability to be observed [23]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.04% year - on - year (previous value: 0.38%), showing a rebound in expenditure growth [2][19]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In July, government fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, maintaining a high growth rate. This may be related to the positive growth of government fund revenue in July and the accelerated issuance of new special bonds since the end of June [2][19]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In July, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, with an overall infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure growth rate of - 3.8% (previous value: - 8.8%). Expenditure on social security increased by 13.1%, health by 14.2%, and debt service by 8.9% [3][19]. - **Accumulated Expenditure**: From January to July, fiscal expenditure growth was 3.4%, slightly lower than the annual budgeted 4.4%. Government fund expenditure growth was 31.7%, higher than the budgeted 23.1%, indicating relatively front - loaded spending [23]. Fiscal Deficit - As of July, fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. From January to July, the general budget fiscal deficit was 2.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. The accumulated broad fiscal deficit was 5.61 trillion yuan, and assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current accumulated broad fiscal deficit rate was 4.0%, close to that in 2022 [3][22]. Future Outlook - There is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure. After August, the year - on - year increase in government bond net financing is expected to turn negative. The scale of special bonds for project expenditure in the second half of the year is also expected to decline. Without incremental fiscal policies, fiscal expenditure intensity may decrease [4][25].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth this year [1] - General public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive revenue growth in July to the recent "anti-involution" actions that have improved corporate profitability, strengthened individual income tax management, and a recovering capital market [1] Revenue Analysis - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20,273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the growth rate expanding nearly 3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Tax revenue amounted to 18,018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, accelerating by 4 percentage points compared to June [3] - Non-tax revenue was 2,255 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with the decline rate widening by 9.2 percentage points from the previous month [3] Tax Revenue Breakdown - The increase in tax revenue in July is linked to price improvements, enhanced individual income tax management, and a rising stock market [5] - Major tax categories showed varied growth: corporate income tax revenue increased by 6.4%, individual income tax revenue surged by 13.9%, while value-added tax growth slowed to 4.3% [5][6] - The securities transaction stamp duty revenue saw a significant increase from 67.1% in June to 125.4% in July, reflecting a recovering stock market [6] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in July was 19,466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from June [6] - Expenditure in the social welfare sector showed robust growth, with education, culture, sports, and health spending increasing by 4.6%, 7.0%, 13.1%, and 14.2% respectively [7] - Infrastructure spending continued to weaken, with a combined decline of 3.8% in four major infrastructure categories, indicating a shift towards prioritizing social welfare over infrastructure [7] Broader Economic Context - From January to July, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 3.2%, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [8] - The government fund budget revenue in July was 3,682 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue declining by 7.2% [8] - Analysts suggest that the recent trends in real estate sales and investment continue to decline, impacting land-related tax revenues [8] Future Outlook - The recovery in broad fiscal revenue in July was primarily supported by high growth in stamp duty and stable land revenue, but sustainability remains uncertain [9] - There is a possibility of increased government bond issuance in the fourth quarter if budget revenue weakens and land revenue declines simultaneously [9] - The fiscal policy may need to adapt in the latter half of the year, potentially through special bond issuance and adjusting deficits to stabilize growth expectations [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's general public budget revenue has achieved positive growth for the first time this year, with a total revenue of 135839 billion yuan in the first seven months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 20273 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with the highest monthly growth rates recorded for both central and local revenues at 2.2% and 3.1% respectively [4] - Tax revenue growth accelerated in July, with a 5% increase, driven by factors such as price improvements, enhanced personal income tax management, and a rising stock market [4] Group 2 - Total public budget expenditure for the first seven months was 160737 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment expenditures at 9.8% [5] - Government fund budget revenue for the first seven months was 23124 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7%, with land use rights transfer income declining by 4.6% [5] - Despite a cooling land market, major cities like first-tier and core second-tier cities showed high activity levels, supporting land transfer income growth [5]