Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 1.04% at 3455.97 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1.72% to 10393.72 points, and the ChiNext Index surged 3.11% to 2128.39 points [1] - The total market turnover was 16,394 billion yuan, an increase of 1,915 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector continued its upward momentum, with stocks like Guosen Securities and Xiangcai Securities hitting consecutive limits, and Dongfang Caifu rising over 10% [2] - In Hong Kong, brokerage stocks saw even stronger gains, with Guotai Junan International surging over 100% and closing up 198.39% [2] Catalysts for Brokerage Sector - The surge in brokerage stocks is attributed to three main factors: 1. Chinese brokerages entering the virtual asset market, with Guotai Junan International receiving approval to offer virtual asset trading services, becoming the first Chinese brokerage in Hong Kong to do so [3] 2. The legislative process for stablecoins in Hong Kong is progressing, with the Stablecoin Ordinance set to take effect on August 1, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [3] 3. A strong financial policy "combination punch" aimed at boosting consumption, with 19 key measures proposed to enhance financial services for consumption [5] Banking Sector Highlights - The banking sector remains strong, with several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, reaching new historical highs [6] - Insurance capital has been actively increasing stakes in bank stocks, with Ping An Life increasing its holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares [6] - The characteristics of bank stocks, such as low volatility and high dividends, continue to attract insurance capital [6] Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance sector also showed strength, with major A-share insurance companies like New China Life and China Pacific Insurance all seeing gains [6] Chip and Military Industry Performance - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Beifang Changlong and Tian Sheng New Materials hitting the daily limit of 20% [8] - The semiconductor sector also experienced a rebound, with stocks like Taiji Co. and Naxin Micro showing strong performance [8] - Market analysts predict a positive outlook for memory chip manufacturers in the second quarter of 2025, with expected revenue growth [8]

Group 1 - Circle's stock price fell by 15% due to increased competition risks in the digital token space, after a significant rise driven by optimism around stablecoin regulation and adoption [1] - The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which aims to establish a federal framework for digital tokens backed by assets like the US dollar, contributing to Circle's previous stock surge [1] - Analyst Ed Engel expects Circle to continue benefiting from stablecoin adoption in the short term, but warns that regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act could intensify competition and pressure Circle's market share by 2025 [1] Group 2 - Circle's primary revenue source is "reserve income," which is interest earned from assets backing its USDC stablecoin, largely from short-term US Treasury securities [2] - Distribution will play a crucial role in future market share growth, especially as more regulated companies launch their own stablecoins; Circle has paid about 60% of its reserve income to distribution partners like Coinbase and Binance [2] - Financial technology company Fiserv plans to launch a digital asset platform, including a new stablecoin FIUSD, leveraging Circle's existing infrastructure, which is seen as a positive development for Circle [2]

美联储主席鲍威尔：稳定币相关立法正在推进，这很好。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act" (GENIUS Act) with a vote of 68 to 30, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar [1] - Stablecoins are digital currencies linked to the value of the U.S. dollar, designed to avoid the price volatility seen in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and are seen as a bridge between traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies [1] - Despite the Senate's approval, several Democratic lawmakers strongly oppose the bill, citing insufficient regulatory measures and oversight mechanisms to prevent corruption and abuse [1] Group 2 - The bill must still be passed by the House of Representatives and signed by the President to take effect, marking a significant return on investment for the cryptocurrency industry, which has spent hundreds of millions to foster a favorable congressional environment [2] - The GENIUS Act requires tokens to be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term government bonds, and mandates monthly disclosures of token reserves by issuers, potentially increasing demand for U.S. government bonds [2] - Supporters, including Treasury Secretary Yellen, argue that dollar-pegged stablecoins could enhance the global dominance of the U.S. dollar compared to other forms of currency [2]

Group 1 - Discussion on potential clues regarding interest rate cuts within the year [1] - Examination of the impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S. inflation, employment, and supply chains [2] - Insights on the international situation, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran [3] Group 2 - Analysis of discussions surrounding U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Evaluation of Trump's actions against "illegal" immigration and its effects on the job market [5] - Consideration of Trump's deregulatory agenda, stablecoin legislation, and volatility in financial markets [6]

网上的专家们，努力在说明稳定币立法是美国旨在摆脱巨大的债务，这纯属想当然。 稳定币是以美元为锚定，1:1随时兑换，从而有了相对意义上的"稳定"，假定它的去中心化和点对点的数字形态成为全球货币持有形式的潮流，的确会有助 于美国削减债务，但目前谈这类问题还太早，正如人民币取代美元现在谈还太早 。 目前市值最大的稳定币也只有百亿级别，与36万亿美债的天文数字做逻辑关联，不应该是专家们的作派。 虽然如此，中国既不会允许境外稳定币进入，也不会允许境内发行稳定币。 为什么？ 假设，在未来30年内人民币存在贬值预期，个人认为是大概率事件，大量钱将通过稳定币流出。从信用的角度讲，稳定币1;1锚定美元，最终由美国政府背 书，数字人民币1:1锚定人民币，由政府做背书，都有信用，但从保值的角度看，统计一下几十年人民币对美元的汇率变化就清楚了，在数字人民币与稳定 币的选择中，所有人都会选择被国内专家斥为很不稳定的稳定币。 最简单且直接的操作，可以通过稳定币1:1转成美债，国内银行五年期存款利息是1.3%，美债是4.071%，一年期国内各大银行集体破1%，相信还会继续，因 为消费者价格指数，生产者价格指数都在下滑，而美债利率为5.34 ...

文/刘思嘉 "币圈"再度掀起波澜。 01 稳定币监管迈向体系化 近期， "币圈"接连迎来重磅消息， 中美两国在稳定币立法领域动作频频，释放出监管趋严信号。 5月19日，美国参议院通过《GENIUS 法案》， 该法案 规定，只有联邦或州批准的机构可发行稳定 币，发行方需为每发行1美元稳定币持有至少1美元的合规储备，且储备资产必须为美元、银行活期 存款、短期美债等高流动性资产。 面对美国的货币立法举措，中国香港地区迅速作出回应。5月21日，香港立法会已三读通过《稳定币 条例草案》。根据新规，合规的香港稳定币有望在今年年底前正式推出。5月30日 ，中国 香港特别 行政区政府在宪报刊登《稳定币条例》， 将于2025年8月1日正式生效。 引得中美两国相继立法抢占主导权的稳定币究竟为何？ 从概念层面来讲，稳定币是一种基于区块链技术发行，旨在保持价值相对稳定的加密数字货币。其核 心特点是通过与法币（如美元）、黄金或其他资产绑定，来减少传统加密货币（如比特币）的剧烈价 格波动。 近一个月， 中美两国相继在稳定币领域迈出立法关键步伐，这 不 仅在加密货币市场激起千层浪， 更被视为两国在金融话语权争夺上的重要落子。 与此同时，资 ...

每日晨报 2025年6月 13 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 5 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.1% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:等待美国通胀温和上行,注意企业也承担了部分涨价--5 月美国 CPI 数据。全年来看,关税下的美国价格走势可能有以下几点特征:(1)从短期 的 CPI 和 PCE 价格数据来看,关税造成的涨价尚不明显,但我们认为这更多 是统计抽样和部分抢进口形成的库存所导致的涨价滞后,高频数据显示涨价已 经发生。(2)尽管通胀将在 2025下半年显现,但我们认为考虑关税的情况下 CPI 的年均同比增速将由 2.4%提升至 3.1%左右,高点可能为 3.4%, 2026 年 中开始可能回落至2.5%左右的范围,其"暂时性"并不阻碍美联储在年内考 虑降息。(3)从对企业的调查来看,企业也将负担部分关税成本,这一方面 意味着消费者价格上行压力缓和,另一方面企业利 ...

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在参议院听证会上强调，此类立法将创造对美元及美债的新增需求，由美 国国债支持的稳定币立法将扩大美元全球使用范围，2万亿美元市值预期非常合理，最终数值可能远超 此数，例如花旗集团分析师今年早些时候表示，他们的基本预测是，到 2030 年，稳定币可能会额外购 买超过 1 万亿美元的美国国债。 值得注意的是，零售业团体曾积极游说，试图将信用卡支付改革纳入法案，要求大型银行建立与Visa、 万事达竞争的新支付网络。而银行业则警告，稳定币普及可能导致银行存款流失，影响信贷供给。部分 中小银行正筹划发行自有稳定币，通过储备资产利息获取收益。 智通财经APP获悉，美国参议院正全力推进一项由加密行业与特朗普政府共同支持的稳定币立法，该法 案最快将于下周完成最终表决。这场立法博弈中，参议院领导人预计将否决两项争议性条款：一是零售 商团体要求引入信用卡支付系统竞争机制，二是民主党提议禁止特朗普从加密业务中获利的条款。 本周三，参议院以68:30的投票结果扫清了法案程序性障碍。此前一日，众议院金融服务委员会与农业 委员会刚通过更广泛的加密货币监管框架，其中共和党议员明确否决了针对特朗普加密资产收益的修正 ...

美国财长贝森特：由美国财政部支持的稳定币立法将扩大美元的使用。 ...