Group 1 - The annual meeting of global central banks in Tokyo will focus on "new challenges in monetary policy," addressing weak economic growth and persistent inflation pressures [1][2] - The meeting will feature key speakers including Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements [1][2] - The discussions will center around the impact of tariffs on economic downturn risks, particularly influenced by U.S. policies under President Trump [2][4] Group 2 - Central banks are facing intertwined pressures from sustained inflation, economic downturn risks, and market volatility, with a particular focus on the implications of U.S. tariffs [2][4] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a gradual rate hike path, but recent global economic changes have raised doubts about its tightening pace [2][7] - The meeting will also address the effectiveness and limitations of unconventional monetary tools used during economic downturns [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode, as rising tariffs are expected to push inflation higher, complicating its policy decisions [4][5] - European Central Bank officials are considering pausing further easing measures due to re-emerging inflation pressures, despite plans for a rate cut in June [6] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its growth forecast due to U.S. tariffs and is signaling a potential pause in its rate hike cycle, while still aiming for a core inflation target of 2% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the European Central Bank's council member, Escrivá, has indicated that Spain faces downward risks in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - The statement suggests potential economic challenges for Spain, which may impact various sectors and investment opportunities [1]

Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]

美联储主席鲍威尔：我的直觉告诉我，不确定性非常高。（经济）下行风险已经增加。 ...