Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the overseas market trends from September 8 to 12, 2025, including the performance of stocks, foreign exchange, bonds, and commodities. It also covers overseas central bank dynamics, Trump policy updates, and high - frequency tracking of the overseas economic fundamentals, and reminds of important events in the coming week. Factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and central bank policies have significant impacts on market trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equities**: Overseas equities generally rose this week. US stocks' three major indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising for 5 consecutive days. European and Asian major indices also increased due to factors like the increased probability of 3 interest rate cuts within the year. For example, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.59%, 0.95%, and 2.03% respectively; the German DAX and London FTSE 100 rose 0.43% and 0.82%; the Nikkei 225 and South Korean Composite Index rose 4.07% and 5.94% [3][12]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar weakened this week. The dollar index fell 0.12%. The euro and yen against the dollar changed by +0.15% and - 0.17% respectively, and the RMB against the dollar rose slightly by 0.06% [12]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y US Treasury yield declined, while the short - end rose. The 2Y US Treasury rose 5bp, and the 10Y US Treasury fell 4bp. The decline was due to factors consolidating the interest rate cut expectation, and the rise was affected by the Middle - East situation and inflation expectations [13]. - **Commodities**: Gold, crude oil, and copper prices all rose. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.26% and 2.81%; WTI crude oil and copper rose 1.02% and 2.54% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The market's expectation of a 9 - month interest rate cut by the Fed reached 100%. The core CPI inflation in the US in August met expectations. The market's expectation of a 25bp cut in September was 93.4% (up from 89.0% a week ago), and the probability of a 50bp cut was 6.6% (down from 11.0% a week ago). The probability of a total of 75bp cuts throughout 2025 was 74% (up from 65% a week ago) [4][30][31]. - The Fed's FOMC meeting in September may see increased internal differences, and the new dot - plot may adjust the interest rate cut path significantly and become more decentralized [30]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade and Tariffs**: The Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on the legality of Trump's global tariff policy in the first week of November. China and the US will hold talks from September 14 - 17 in Spain, discussing issues like US unilateral tariffs and TikTok. China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - dumping and anti - discrimination investigations on US - imported products. Trump proposed that the EU impose a 100% tariff on Russia's energy buyers (India and China) [33]. - **Fed - related**: Milan may participate in the September FOMC vote. There is a new candidate for the Fed chair, Rick Rieder. The case of Fed governor Cook may have a turn, with evidence to refute the mortgage fraud accusation [33][34]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Economic Outlook - The Polymarket website's bet on a US economic recession in 2025 was 11% (up from 9% a week ago). Bloomberg's consensus forecast for US economic growth in 2025 was revised up to 1.65%, and for the eurozone, it was 1.2% [6][40]. - The New York Fed's Nowcast model slightly lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth forecast to 2.08%, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model raised it to 3.09% [42]. 3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit claimants exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact in Texas. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, with Texas contributing 57%. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remained at 1.939 million [47]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales were stable, but airport security checks and railway transportation decreased significantly. The red - book retail sales growth rate was 6.6%. Airport security checks fell to 15.787 million, and railway transportation was 468,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 9.44%. The real - estate market activity picked up, with mortgage rates falling and application indices rising [55]. 3.4 Production - US crude steel production rebounded, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was stable. The crude steel production in the week ending September 5 was 1.795 million short tons, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was 94.9% [59]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 2.9%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Capesize Freight Index, and Panamax Freight Index rose 7.4%, 11.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Chinese port export container prices generally fell, with some routes rising [61][63]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices fell 0.69% this week. The 1 - year inflation swap rate was 3.335% (up 0.03 percentage points), and the 2 - year inflation swap rate was 2.906% (down 0.02 percentage points) [65]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure declined. The OFR US Financial Stress Index was - 1.136 (down 0.105 from the previous week), and the CCC high - yield bond credit spread was 8.00% (down from 8.06% a week ago) [67]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminder - Multiple overseas central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, will announce interest rate decisions. Attention should also be paid to US retail data and import price indices. Diplomatic events include China - US trade talks from September 14 - 17 and Trump's state visit to the UK from September 17 - 19 [72].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold: After the adjustment of non - farm payroll data, the gold price dropped slightly during the previous day, but due to the continued slowdown of PPI and high expectations of interest rate cuts, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. With the approaching of the September Fed meeting and high expectations of interest rate cuts, paying attention to today's CPI data, the gold price remains strong [4]. - Silver: With the continued slowdown of PPI and high expectations of interest rate cuts, risk appetite recovered, and the silver price fluctuated and closed higher. As the September meeting approaches and interest rate cut expectations are high, paying attention to the US CPI data today, the silver price follows the gold price and remains strong [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US PPI in August declined more than expected, and the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell differently, and the main European stock indexes also showed mixed results at the close. The US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4.21 basis points to 4.047%. The US dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.85, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1226. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.05% at $3680.4 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US PPI in August declined more than expected, and the silver price fluctuated at a high level. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell differently, and the main European stock indexes also showed mixed results at the close. The US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4.21 basis points to 4.047%. The US dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.85, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1226. COMEX silver futures closed up 0.75% at $41.65 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.92, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants increased by 1536 kilograms to 45951 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants increased by 1831 kilograms to 1252170 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung holds a press conference on his 100th day in office; the 7th China Financial Technology Forum is held; the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services is held at Shougang Park; the 2025 E - commerce Conference is held; the 17th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee is held in Beijing from September 8 - 12; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr gives a speech [15]. - 20:15: The European Central Bank releases its interest rate decision [15]. - 20:30: US CPI for August and the number of initial jobless claims for the week of September 6 are released [15]. - 20:45: ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference [15]. - 23:10: Bank of England Executive Director Sasha Mills speaks at the European Settlement System Conference [15]. - Next Day 00:00: US household net worth in the second quarter is released [15]. - Next Day 02:00: US government budget for August is released [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the gold price is difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in the silver price [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On September 10, 2025, the long position volume was 251,787, a decrease of 1,379 or 0.54% compared with September 9; the short position volume was 82,397, an increase of 1,398 or 1.73%; the net position was 169,390, a decrease of 2,777 or 1.61% [31]. - **Silver**: On September 10, 2025, the long position volume was 366,328, an increase of 2,030 or 0.56% compared with September 9; the short position volume was 247,265, a decrease of 448 or 0.18%; the net position was 119,063, an increase of 2,478 or 2.13% [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing and the weakening of domestic risk appetite, the price of gold has increased significantly, and the price of silver has fluctuated at a high level. As the September Fed meeting approaches and the dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, the price of gold is strong, and the price of silver is still supported by the price of gold [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The high expectation of Fed easing led to a significant rise in the price of gold. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes all closed down. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 3.50 basis points to 4.260%. The US dollar index rose 0.66% to 98.32, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1385. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The high expectation of Fed easing caused the price of silver to fluctuate at a high level. Other market indicators were similar to those of gold, and COMEX silver futures closed flat at $41.73 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 447 kilograms to 40191 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8001 kilograms to 1215228 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events need to be focused on, including South Korea's Q2 GDP, Vietnam's August manufacturing PMI, Japan's August service and composite PMI final value, China's August S&P service and composite PMI, etc. Also, speeches by central bank officials such as the European Central Bank President Lagarde and the US St. Louis Fed President Musalem, as well as the Fed's economic beige book and US July JOLTS job openings, are important [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold** - **Likely positive factors**: Global turmoil with lingering risk - aversion sentiment; significant shadow Fed with rising expectation of interest rate cuts; tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation; impact of tariff concerns [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Cessation of interest rate cuts and improved economic expectations; European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations with the US standing out again; deterioration of risk appetite; end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver** - **Likely positive factors**: Similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the price of silver [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Similar to those of gold [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the price of silver, and the price of silver is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.86% to 243,530 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions increased by 4.39% to 70,476, and the net positions increased by 6.47% to 173,054 [31]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.57% to 373,101 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions decreased by 1.59% to 274,760, and the net positions increased by 11.59% to 98,341 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The gold ETF positions continued to increase, and the silver ETF positions increased slightly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase with renewed tariff concerns [39][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: Due to the resurgence of European - American trade disputes, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai gold premium continued to expand to 0.1 yuan/gram. With the high dovish expectations of the shadow Fed, the gold price is supported. Considering the global situation after Trump's inauguration and the shift from inflation to recession expectations, the gold price is still likely to rise and hard to fall [4]. - **Silver**: After Trump announced to "fire" the current Fed governor, but the Fed stated that Trump's power to remove the governor was limited, the silver price fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai silver premium expanded to about 440 yuan/kg. The silver price still mainly follows the gold price and is affected by tariff concerns [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose slightly, European three major stock indexes fell across the board. Most US bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 0.78 basis points to 4.261%. The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 98.24, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1534. COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.4, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 43, neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 13692 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Attention - Time TBD, from August 27th - 29th, the 2025 AGIC Shenzhen (International) General Artificial Intelligence Conference and General Artificial Intelligence Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center. - At 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in July and Australia's CPI in July will be released. - At 12:01, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a 2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economy again [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump's inauguration, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: It follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 625,171, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day; the short position volume was 472,276, an increase of 0.25%; the net position was 152,895, an increase of 1.14% [30]. - **Silver**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 1,082,920, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous day; the short position volume was 993,680, a decrease of 2.78%; the net position was 89,240, a decrease of 8.77% [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: US retail sales continued to grow significantly, and the US consumer confidence in August unexpectedly declined while long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. With the smooth meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, the gold price showed a slight oscillation. The premium of Shanghai gold remained at 0.2 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [4]. - Silver: As US retail sales continued to grow significantly and the meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine was successful, the silver price oscillated following the gold price. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 395 yuan/kg. The silver price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the meeting among the US, Ukraine, and Europe [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US retail sales continued to grow significantly, the three major US stock indices closed with mixed results, the three major European stock indices also closed with mixed results, the US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.11 basis points to 4.318%), the US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1891, and the COMEX gold futures fell 0.04% to $3381.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the same macro - factors, the COMEX silver futures fell 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.39 (spot was at a discount to futures, neutral); the inventory of gold futures increased by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (bearish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis, inventory, and other factors were also analyzed, but the specific content was not as detailed as that of gold. The silver price followed the gold price to oscillate [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The US is to announce the expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, and the expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18; at 12:30, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index will be released; at 17:00, the eurozone's June unadjusted trade balance will be announced; at 22:00, the US August NAHB housing market index will be released; Trump will meet with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders in the Oval Office of the White House on the afternoon of the 18th [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation was affected by factors such as US retail sales, consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. The overall situation was neutral, and the price was expected to oscillate [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated following the gold price due to the significant growth of US retail sales and other factors [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 170 to 632,979 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 0.03%; the short - position volume decreased by 275 to 481,939, a decrease of 0.06%; the net position increased by 105 to 151,040, an increase of 0.07% [29]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 43,293 to 1,089,608 on August 15 compared with August 14, a decrease of 3.82%; the short - position volume decreased by 33,259 to 998,505, a decrease of 3.22%; the net position decreased by 10,034 to 91,103, a decrease of 9.92% [32].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [1] - Report author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Author's qualification: F3051846 (从业资格证号), Z0015764 (投资咨询证号) [1] - Contact information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For gold, due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement on potential sanctions against Russia and high expectations of a 50BP interest rate cut in September, the gold price first rose and then fell, and rose again in the morning. The high expectation of interest rate cuts supports the gold price [4]. - For silver, with the same statement from the US Treasury Secretary and a significant increase in domestic risk appetite, the silver price strengthened during the day. The recovery of commodity sentiment still supports the silver price [6]. Group 4: Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Treasury Secretary's statement led to a rise - then - fall in the gold price. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell (10 - year US bond yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%), the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 97.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $3407.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The silver price rose during the day due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement and increased domestic risk appetite. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index fell, and the offshore RMB appreciated. COMEX silver futures rose 1.44% to $38.55 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include the State Council Information Office press conference, US July PPI, intensive speeches by Fed members, and UK Q2 GDP [4]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australian employment population and unemployment rate for July [15] - 10:00: State Council Information Office press conference on the achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" digital China construction [15] - 14:00: UK Q2 GDP preliminary value [15] - 20:30: US July PPI, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 [15] - 22:00: US St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a CNBC program [15] - Next day 02:00: US Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) participates in an online seminar [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.2 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 36045 kg (unchanged), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [4][5]. - Silver: The basis is - 26 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1151209 kg (decreased by 753 kg day - on - day), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On August 13, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.24% to 214,449, the short position increased by 3.78% to 60,932, and the net position decreased by 1.09% to 153,517 [29]. - Silver: ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years, and Shanghai silver warrants continued to decrease but were higher than last year's level, while COMEX silver warrants increased slightly [36][40].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, causing the gold price to decline significantly. The release of the US CPI today may lead the market to bet on stagflation. If the CPI rises, the gold price will still have support. With the new dovish expectations of the Fed, the gold price may rebound. [4] - Silver: The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the decline is not significantly enlarged. The commodity sentiment recovers, and the silver price is still supported. The release of the US CPI today may further push up the silver price. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX gold futures fell 2.80% to $3393.7 per ounce. [4] - **Silver**: Silver price followed the gold price to fall. US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce. [6] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The gold futures price is 779.48, the spot price is 776.19, and the basis is - 3.29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts are 36045 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [4][5] - **Silver**: The silver futures price is 9210, the spot price is 9187, and the basis is - 23, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1151962 kg, with a daily decrease of 6425 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6] 3.3. Today's Focus - 12:30: Australian policy rate, and the RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. - 14:00: UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate for June. - Time TBD: China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for August, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August. - 20:30: US CPI for July. - 22:00: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter in 2027) speaks. - 22:30: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC voter in 2025) speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook. - 02:00: US government budget for July. [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, the gold price drops significantly. The market starts to bet on stagflation, and if the CPI rises, the gold price will have support. The Shanghai gold premium expands to - 1.3 yuan per gram. [4] - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the Shanghai silver premium remains at about 400 yuan per kg. [6] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [5] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor and a poor auction of 30 - year US Treasury bonds, gold prices have rebounded. New dovish expectations from the Fed support gold prices, and they are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 0.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: Also influenced by the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor, silver prices have continued to rise. Despite a poor 30 - year US Treasury bond auction, the recovery of domestic commodity sentiment has led to a resurgence in silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 415 yuan/kilogram, and silver prices are expected to be strong [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The dovish Milan's expected appointment as a Fed governor led to a recovery in gold prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year yield up 2.62 basis points to 4.252%. The US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.09, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.44% to $3482.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the expected appointment of the dovish Milan led to a rise in silver prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed, US Treasury yields rose, and the US dollar index fell. COMEX silver futures rose 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include China's July CPI and PPI, and speeches by Fed members [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Scheduled events: Japan's June trade balance at 07:50; the 2025 World Robot Expo (time TBD); the online interpretation of the Bank of England's latest forecasts and policy decisions by Chief Economist Huw Pill at 19:15; Canada's July employment report (including employment figures and unemployment rate) at 20:30; a speech by St. Louis Fed President (2025 FOMC voter) Mousalem at 22:20; China's July CPI and PPI at 09:30 on Saturday; and the possible release of China's July M2 and other money supply data, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans on Saturday [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.72, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts stand at 36,045 kilograms, remaining unchanged [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 47, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11,506 kilograms to 1,150,338 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold increased by 3,267 (1.47%), short positions decreased by 42 (- 0.07%), and the net position increased by 3,309 (2.06%) [4][28]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 3,512 (1.02%), short positions decreased by 3,270 (- 1.20%), and the net position increased by 6,782 (9.60%) [5][32]. 4. Other Information - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, while silver ETF positions decreased slightly but remained higher than the levels of the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decline but were higher than last year's level, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [38][41].