往后看，影响黄金的主要因素及增量信息主要有： 事实上，岁末年初黄金等贵金属市场迎来一次大利空。2025年12月29日—2026年1月2日四个交易日中， 黄金和白银因全球大宗商品重要指数权重的调整而大幅震荡。2025年末，彭博大宗商品指数 （Bloomberg Commodity Index）发布了年度权重调整公告，黄金的目标权重从14.29%调至14.90%，白 银则从4.49%降至3.94%。根据WIND数据，2025年黄金的实际权重为20.49%，若2026年目标权重下调至 14.9%，相当于将黄金的实际权重下调5.59个百分点；而2025年白银的实际权重为9.73%，若按照2026年 的目标权重下调至3.94%，则白银的实际权重将下调5.79个百分点。作为全球大宗商品市场的重要基准 指数，目前彭博大宗商品指数追踪的被动型基金、ETF以及挂钩衍生品的资产管理总规模（AUM）约 为1000亿至1100亿美元之间。若黄金的实际权重下调5.59个百分点，白银实际权重下调5.79个百分点， 则对应黄金和白银的被动再平衡资金规模大约为58.7亿美元和60.8亿美元，白银的调整规模高于黄金。 权重调整公告之后，由于前 ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 吴金铎。资料图 2026年伊始，美国政府新的对外政策冲击了世界政治和经济，再度推升黄金等贵金属价格。截至2026年1月22日，伦敦现货黄金和COMEX 黄金期货结算价（活跃合约）已升至4832.1美元/盎司和4913.4美元/盎司，年内14个交易日涨幅已达11%和13.5%。 事实上，岁末年初黄金等贵金属市场迎来一次大利空。2025年12月29日—2026年1月2日四个交易日中，黄金和白银因全球大宗商品重要指 数权重的调整而大幅震荡。2025年末，彭博大宗商品指数（Bloomberg Commodity Index）发布了年度权重调整公告，黄金的目标权重从 14.29%调至14.90%，白银则从4.49%降至3.94%。根据WIND数据，2025年黄金的实际权重为20.49%，若2026年目标权重下调至14.9%，相 当于将黄金的实际权重下调5.59个百分点；而2025年白银的实际权重为9.73%，若按照2026年的目标权重下调至3.94%，则白银的实际权重 将下调5.79个百分点。作为全球大宗商品市场的重要基准指数，目前彭博大宗商品指数追踪的被动型基金、ETF以及挂钩衍生品的资产管 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, although geopolitical risks have eased, market uncertainties remain high, and precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels. Long - term, the logic for the rise of precious metals remains firm, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Gold is expected to be better than silver for allocation, and attention can be paid to the phased repair opportunities of the gold - silver ratio [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, dollar credit risks will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, London gold spot fell 0.4% to $4825.93 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.2% to $94.07 per ounce, COMEX gold fell 0.4% to $4826.50 per ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $93.96 per ounce, AU2602 fell 0.5% to 1083.56 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 0.8% to 23370 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) fell 0.4% to 1081.44 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.7% to 23352 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose - 36.7% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose - 1900.0% (data may need verification), the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 5.7% to - 4.96 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) rose - 27.4% to - 511 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 1.3% to 46.37, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.2% to 51.37, AU2604 - 2602 rose 18.2% to 4.02 yuan per gram, and AG2604 - 2602 rose - 36.7% to - 31 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.37% to 1077.66 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.35% to 16166.09757 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 3.97% to 44945 contracts, non - commercial net long positions rose 10.37% to 251238 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.02% to 102009 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 1.95% to 589052 kilograms. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.02% to 36142880 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.98% to 422313658 troy ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 22, 2026, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.00, with a 0.01% increase compared to January 21, 2026. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.77, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.93% to 4.26%, the VIX fell 15.88% to 16.90, the S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6875.62, and NYMEX crude oil rose 1.93% to 60.67 [3]. 3.6 Market Review - On January 22, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.69% to 1087.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.22% to 2339 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.7 Influencing Factors Analysis - Trump reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland and withdrew tariff threats against 8 European countries, and stated no military action to seize the island, which eased market risk aversion and pressured precious metal prices. The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected and weekly jobless claims were stable, indicating US economic resilience and may suppress the rise of precious metals. However, the Greenland crisis is not fully resolved, there are concerns about European funds selling US Treasuries and reducing US stock investments, and Trump's threat of retaliation adds to market uncertainties. With tight spot supply and low inventory, the fundamentals support precious metals. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing significant increases, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,959 and New York futures rising by 2% to $4,970, indicating a potential breach of the $5,000 mark soon [1][3] - Market sentiment is shifting as trust in the US dollar declines, leading investors to increase their gold holdings as a safer alternative, especially in light of concerns over US Treasury bonds being heavily sold off [3] - Goldman Sachs has set a target price for gold at $5,400 by December 2026, but current market conditions suggest this target may be reached sooner due to rising concerns over sovereign currencies [3] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices has positively impacted the non-ferrous metals sector, with related indices showing a 2% increase, reflecting the interconnectedness of precious and base metals [3] - Metals such as copper and tin have also seen varying degrees of rebound, indicating a broader market response to the rising gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The value of diamonds has significantly depreciated, with a reported 99% drop in resale value over the past decade, exemplified by a diamond ring purchased for 18,000 yuan now worth only 180 yuan [1][2] - In contrast, gold prices have surged over 400% during the same period, with the price per gram increasing from 290 yuan to 1,456 yuan, indicating a substantial investment return for gold compared to diamonds [1][2] - The diamond market has been experiencing a decline in both sales and prices, with certified diamond prices dropping by 35% to 40% in the past year, particularly affecting diamonds between 0.5 to 3 carats, which saw a 30% to 35% decrease in sales [1][2] Group 2 - De Beers, a major player in the diamond industry, has been forced to reduce prices significantly, with a 40% price drop on mainstream 2-4 carat diamonds since 2022, and an additional 10% reduction expected in early 2024 [2] - The company reported a loss of 1.3 billion yuan in the first half of the previous year and is facing a surplus of 14 billion yuan worth of unsold diamonds, indicating a severe imbalance between supply and demand [2] - The rise of synthetic diamonds, particularly from Henan, has contributed to the decline of natural diamond sales, with synthetic diamonds being produced at a fraction of the cost and accounting for 63% of global production by 2024 [2] Group 3 - The price of gold has reached historical highs, surpassing 4,800 USD per ounce, with a year-on-year increase of 80%, reflecting strong industrial demand and its role as a hedge against currency risks [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices are approaching 1,500 yuan per gram, with significant increases noted among major brands, indicating a robust market for gold compared to the struggling diamond sector [3] - The overall demand for metals, including silver and copper, has surged, with silver prices increasing by 230% since early 2025, highlighting the industrial utility of these materials compared to diamonds [3] Group 4 - The decline of diamonds serves as a lesson in economics, illustrating that prices based on perceived value rather than intrinsic utility can collapse when demand wanes [4] - For businesses, reliance on brand narratives without real value creation can lead to price instability, while consumers are reminded that assets lacking cash flow or industrial use may ultimately be liabilities [5] - The market's ability to expose bubbles and elevate true scarcity reinforces the importance of genuine demand in determining asset value [5]

ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格最踪 | 2026/1/21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1088. 90 | 23180.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | (本表数 | 2026/1/20 | 4713. 69 | 94.08 | 4720.00 | 93.95 | 1056. 94 ...

你听说了吗？ 就在今天，国内金价冲到了每克1030块。 这数字，是不是听着就让人心跳加速？ 但更让人坐不住的是，很多人都在悄悄议论：这恐怕只是个 开始，明天，或者下周，市场可能会迎来一场更猛烈的风暴。 这感觉，像不像2023年那会儿？ 地缘政治一 紧张，黄金就成了大家眼里的香饽饽。 国内现货黄金蹭蹭往上涨，期货市场也跟着火热，连带着黄金ETF都成了抢手货。 市场里那种情绪，明眼人都能感 觉到，有点上头。 但黄金这东西，从来就不只是简单的投资品。 它身上带着那种古老的、保命的属性，有人觉得它是最可靠的压舱石，有人却觉得这玩意儿有点玄乎。 眼 下，春节快到了，买金饰的需求旺起来，老百姓通过ETF几块钱就能参与黄金投资的门槛又这么低，市场想不热闹都难。 你看，国内金价热得发烫，可伦 敦那边的现货黄金，前几天还稍微跌了一点呢。 这一冷一热对比下来，咱们的市场，是真有自己的脾气。 其实，这股热潮背后，远不止春节买金那么简单。 如果我们把视线拉长，看看2025年一整年，那才叫真正的"史诗级行情"。 国际金价从年初的每盎司2600 美元左右，一路狂飙到年底的4500美元以上，全年涨幅超过了70%。 整整一年里，现货黄金的价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to be strong, but the fluctuation may be intense due to factors such as low probability of Fed rate - cut in January and risk - control measures from exchanges. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand from central banks, institutions, and residents will drive the long - term upward shift of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - On January 9, 2026, London gold spot was at $4473.61/oz, London silver spot at $77.24/oz, COMEX gold at $4483.10/oz, and COMEX silver at $77.00/oz. The price of AU2602 was 1006.48 yuan/g, and AG2602 was 18757 yuan/kg. The price of AU (T + D) was 1003.45 yuan/g, and AG (T + D) was 18764 yuan/kg. Compared with January 8, the price increases were 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The price difference and ratio data showed various changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.03 yuan/g on January 9, with a 23.7% change compared to January 8 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 9, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16308.47495 tons. The COMEX gold non - commercial long - position was 274435 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 46803 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long - position was 47384 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 18113 contracts. Compared with January 8, there were different percentage changes in these positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 9, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, with no change from January 8. SHFE silver inventory was 620262 kg, a 2.73% decrease. COMEX gold inventory was 36311918 troy ounces, a 0.21% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 439740503 troy ounces, a 0.62% decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Review - On January 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.68% to 1006.48 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.9% to 18731 yuan/kg [3]. 3.5 Factor Analysis - The lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in December, along with downward revisions of October and November data, indicate a cooling US labor market. The intensifying protests in Iran, Trump's radical remarks on Greenland, and strong safe - haven demand have pushed up precious metal prices. The short - term prices are expected to be strong, but the Fed's low probability of rate - cut in January and exchange risk - control measures may lead to high volatility. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains [4].

Group 1 - Central banks have increased their gold reserves for only 17 out of the past 60 years, and this trend is expected to continue, although gold prices may not always rise in tandem with central bank purchases [1][16] - The primary drivers for gold investment are its value preservation and safe-haven attributes, with the former being the main reason for price increases and the latter being significant due to geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts [1][15] - The total amount of gold held by global central banks has decreased from 1.225 billion ounces in 1964 to an estimated 1.166 billion ounces in 2024, despite significant monetary expansion during the same period [3][6] Group 2 - The price of gold has increased dramatically, from $35 per ounce in 1964 to approximately $2,639 per ounce by the end of 2024, representing a nearly 75-fold increase, while the broad money supply (M2) has grown by 159 times during the same period [3][6] - As of the end of 2024, the market value of central bank gold reserves exceeds $3 trillion, but this still represents a low percentage of global broad money, increasing from 4.3% in 1964 to only 1.9% in 2024 [6][9] - The decrease in gold reserves among central banks is attributed to a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves, particularly in U.S. dollars, which rose from 31% of total reserves in 1960 to 77% in 2024 [9][12] Group 3 - Since 2025, the U.S. dollar index has weakened due to the continuous expansion of U.S. debt, leading central banks to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against concerns over U.S. debt creditworthiness [12][15] - The global gold stock has increased by approximately 1.5 times over the past 60 years due to advancements in mining technology, yet central banks only hold about 17.5% of this total, indicating a significant gap in potential gold reserves [12][15] - The article concludes that to enhance the international status of the Chinese yuan, it is essential to optimize the central bank's reserve structure by reducing holdings in U.S. and Japanese bonds while increasing gold reserves [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. The silver price may face significant volatility risks, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **15:00 Price on January 7, 2026**: London gold spot was $4444.75/ounce, London silver spot was $78.99/ounce, COMEX gold was $4455.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $78.83/ounce, AU2602 was 998.90 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 19287.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 996.29 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19264.00 yuan/kilogram. Compared with January 6, 2026, the price changes were - 0.5%, 0.0%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.6%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% respectively [3] - **Spread/Ratio**: On January 7, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.61 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 23 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 6.70 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 777 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 51.79, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 56.51, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.50 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was 3 yuan/kilogram. The price changes compared with January 6, 2026 were - 2.6%, - 309.1%, 23.6%, 32.9%, 0.3%, - 0.6%, 3.3%, and - 160.0% respectively [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of January 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1067.13 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16118.15581 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275592 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 44419 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 231173 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 50506 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 20443 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 30063 contracts. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.19%, - 1.44%, - 5.02%, - 10.19%, - 3.96%, - 8.57%, 5.60%, and - 16.22% respectively [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 97653.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 553429.00 kilograms. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 4.82% respectively. On January 6, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36403452 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449211255 troy ounces. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and - 0.07% respectively [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 7, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.02, the US dollar index was 98.60, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, the VIX was 14.75, the S&P 500 was 6944.82, and NYMEX crude oil was 56.97. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were 0.02%, 0.28%, 0.29%, 0.24%, - 1.01%, 0.62%, and - 2.37% respectively [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 7, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.17% to 998.9 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.07% to 19290 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The increase in the possibility of geopolitical risk spill - over and the risk - aversion demand boosted the prices of precious metals. The main contract of silver futures broke through the 2000 yuan/kilogram mark and reached a new high. Then, due to profit - taking pressure and market concerns about the BO0H index adjustment, the prices of precious metals fell from their highs. The weakening of the domestic silver spot premium and the positive structure of silver TV and futures also suppressed the upward trend of the silver price. However, the People's Bank of China's continuous gold reserve increase for 14 months and the lower - than - expected US ADP data in December supported the prices of precious metals [4] 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term View - In the medium and long term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization trends. The US huge debt and the weakened independence of the Fed will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [5]