Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) report highlights the rising international status of gold, which is projected to account for approximately 20% of global official reserves by the end of 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share and becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1][4][7] Group 1: Global Central Bank Gold Holdings - Global central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, doubling the average annual level from the 2010s, with current holdings nearing post-World War II highs [2][5] - By the end of 2024, global central bank gold holdings are expected to reach approximately 36,000 tons, close to the historical peak of 38,000 tons set in 1965 [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Demand - The demand for gold as a reserve asset has surged since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility, with gold prices rising approximately 62% over the past year [4][11] - About two-thirds of central banks invest in gold for asset diversification, while around 40% do so to hedge against geopolitical risks [4][11] Group 3: Trends in Dollar and Gold Reserves - The dollar's share of global reserve assets has been declining, projected to fall by 10 percentage points over the past decade, with a 2 percentage point drop expected in 2024 alone [7][10] - The trend of de-dollarization among global central banks is becoming increasingly evident, as they seek to reduce reliance on the US financial system [7][10] Group 4: Future Projections for Gold Prices - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could surge by 80% over the next four years, potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce, driven by significant capital inflows into gold [14][15] - Wells Fargo anticipates that gold prices will rise to $3,600 per ounce by the end of 2026, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties [14][15] Group 5: Central Bank Strategies - Countries like Poland, Turkey, India, and China are leading the gold purchasing trend, with Poland's central bank recently increasing its gold reserves to 509 tons, surpassing the ECB's holdings [6][5] - Emerging economies in Africa are also beginning to accumulate gold to mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions on their currencies [6][11]

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续地减持美债。 持有比例从2015年震荡下行，2022年4月跌破1万亿，2024年跌破8000亿。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净 ...

Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

中信建投期货研报观点认为，地缘政治风险担忧持续，俄乌谈判无实质进展，中东地区局势仍然紧张。 美国与日本、印度谈判正在推进，但美国强硬态度使得谈判进展缓慢。此外，特朗普减税法案在众议院 通过并等待参议院结果，市场对美国债务问题担忧加剧，削弱美元信用价值。总体来看，特朗普减税法 案继续削弱美元信用价值，地缘政治风险与贸易风险亦持续，贵金属后市仍易涨难跌。 中信建投期货：贵金属仍是易涨难跌 国投期货：黄金长期看涨，短期维持回调买入思路 申银万国期货：黄金震荡整理长期驱动支撑反弹 Asset Strategies International：美国减税法案料扩大赤字，这将推动金价走高 Forexlive.com网站：对贸易不确定性对冲促使投资者坚定买入黄金 机构观点分析如下： 新华财经北京5月26日电（吴郑思） 周一（5月26日）早盘，随着特朗普说"将推迟对欧盟商品征收50% 关税"，国际金价盘中一度下挫约15美元，低点至3335美元／盎司一线，但随后金价便震荡回升，重新 回到3350美元／盎司附近，整体依然保持偏强态势。以下是部分机构观点： 国投期货观点认为，近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均处于谈判阶段，特朗普威胁6月1 ...

Group 1 - The appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset is rapidly increasing amid global economic struggles between "stagflation" and "deflation" [1] - In April, the country's gold imports surged to 127.5 tons, a 73% increase year-on-year, marking an 11-month high, while platinum imports also exceeded 11.5 tons [1] - This surge in gold demand reflects a deep concern over the stability of the dollar system, especially as international gold prices reached a historic high of over $3500 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in gold holdings by foreign entities points to a structural crisis in the U.S. Treasury market, with a 15% reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings over the past six months [3] - The increase in gold reserves corresponds to 60% of the funds from the sale of U.S. Treasuries, serving as a hedge against valuation risks from inverted Treasury yields [3] - Analysts suggest that if the risk of U.S. debt default rises, gold's physical attributes will make it the ultimate asset unaffected by credit system risks [3] Group 3 - The explosive growth in gold demand indicates a reassessment of dollar credit risk by various countries, with Russia successfully increasing its gold reserve ratio to 23% before the Ukraine conflict [4] - The reintroduction of "tariff weaponization" by the Trump administration has led to simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar index, prompting a global capital flight from dollar assets [4] - According to the International Monetary Fund, the global dollar reserve ratio is projected to drop to 57.3% by Q1 2025, the lowest level in 20 years, signaling unprecedented challenges to dollar hegemony [4] Group 4 - A fierce competition for gold among global central banks has emerged, with a 340% year-on-year increase in gold purchases reported for Q1 2025, primarily driven by emerging market countries [6] - Countries like India and Turkey are utilizing foreign exchange reserves to repatriate physical gold, aiming to avoid risks associated with Western financial sanctions [6] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is shifting gold pricing power eastward, as evidenced by a major Asian financial center experiencing an 18-month streak of gold premiums above international benchmark prices [6]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 北京报道 经过前期的小幅回调，5月21日国际金价再度飙涨，纽约COMEX黄金价格一度上破3350美元/盎司，为5月9日以来 首次。受金价大涨影响，黄金股午后持续走高，截至当天收盘，赤峰黄金(06693.HK)涨幅13.84%，报29.2港元； 紫金矿业(02899.HK)涨幅7.9%，报18.56港元；招金矿业(01818.HK)涨幅7.8%，报19.62港元。 "近期金价上涨，与美国主权信用评级被下调有关。近日，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从AAA下调至AA1，这加剧 了市场对美元资产的信任危机，引发大规模美元抛售，从而刺激了黄金的买盘。此外，全球央行持续购金以及地 缘政治扰动，这些因素都在推动金价进一步企稳回升。"匠鑫学院院长许亚鑫接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 黄金避险功能重启 景川表示，由于铂金质地坚硬、光泽度高，是制作高档首饰的重要材料。与此同时，铂金具有良好的催化性能， 广泛应用于汽车尾气处理的催化转换器中。铂金的耐高温、耐腐蚀等特性使其在实验室设备制造中有重要应用。 在氢燃料电池领域，铂基催化剂用于提升氢气电化学反应效率，为中长期铂金 ...

外汇市场一周展望：多重不确定性下的波动前瞻 (2025年5月19日-5月23日) 1. 美元的信用与避险双重属性博弈： 穆迪近期将美国AAA信用评级展望下调至Aa1，并预测美国债 务/GDP比率将持续攀升，这在长期内引发了市场对美元信用风险的担忧，并可能对美债收益率构 成上行压力。 2. 美联储政策预期的矛盾： 尽管部分美联储官员（如博斯蒂克）重申了2025年可能降息一次的预 期，但最新的美国通胀预期（5月一年期通胀预期初值高达7.3%）和疲软的消费者信心数据，共 同描绘了一幅经济增长放缓与通胀压力并存的复杂图景。这种"滞胀"风险或至少是高通胀的持续 性，可能限制美联储的政策空间，使得市场对降息时点和幅度的预期摇摆不定，进而影响美元走 势。 周一 (5月19日): 中国4月经济数据 (10:00): 工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额等数据。若表现强于预期，通常被视 为全球经济需求改善的信号，有望提振澳元、纽元等商品货币 欧元区4月CPI终值 (17:00): 若最终数据较初值上修，将进一步确认欧元区通胀的黏性，可能强化 欧洲央行维持紧缩或延迟降息的预期，从而支撑欧元。 美联储官员讲话 (20:45): 副主席杰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has recently reversed its trend, with spot gold rising over 1% on May 19, reaching $3,240.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.93% to $3,248.6 per ounce [1][5]. Price Movements - As of May 19, spot gold was reported at $3,240.68 per ounce, showing a daily increase of $38.9 or 1.21% [3]. - COMEX gold futures closed at $3,248.6 per ounce, up $61.4 or 1.93% from the previous close of $3,187.2 [2]. Recent Trends - The gold price had previously peaked at approximately $3,430 per ounce on May 7, followed by a significant decline, including a drop of about $72 per ounce on May 14, marking a daily decrease of 2.23% [5]. - Factors contributing to the recent decline included improved market risk appetite following U.S.-China trade talks and a noticeable outflow from global gold ETFs due to profit-taking [5]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices reflects a short-term bearish sentiment influenced by trade easing, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, and technical overbought conditions [6]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing concerns about U.S. dollar credit risk and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [6].

近期，金价大幅震荡，黄金投资热度大幅降温。 券商中国记者翻阅近期券商研报及采访机构发现，黄金仍是各机构当前最为关注的资产之一。不少机构解读 称，短期金价承压受多重因素影响，博弈难度加大，但中长期来看，黄金仍为高性价比的配置资产。更有较为 乐观的机构称，黄金价格有望在阶段性回调后维持长期上涨趋势。 不过，也有一些机构认为，黄金中长期上涨的趋势或许还在，但短期上涨的动能被削弱，提醒投资者避免高倍 杠杆操作。 券商中国记者注意到，在社交平台上，不少投资者在800元/克以上的高位买入，随着近期金价的大幅波动，不 少投资者晒出了自己在高位投资黄金的收益，直呼"天塌了""跌麻了"。不过，也有一些投资者称，将长期投 资，或是"购入成本较低，心里不慌"。 金价坐上"过山车" 近期，金价堪称坐上"过山车"。5月7日以来，伦敦现货黄金价格从约3430美元/盎司高点连续下挫，其中5月14 日单日暴跌约72美元/盎司，单日跌幅2.23%。截至目前，伦敦现货黄金价格在3200美元/盎司附近波动。 值得注意的是，随着近期电商618活动的开启，不少消费者也瞄准金条及黄金饰品，利用大促优惠购置。 沪金期货也持续走弱，5月17日约在750元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The current wait-and-see approach of the Federal Reserve is deemed reasonable due to the potential impacts of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [2]. - Economic indicators show a divergence, with the first quarter of 2025 experiencing a contraction in GDP for the first time in three years, primarily due to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid tariffs [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market that has yet to reflect the impacts of tariffs [2]. Inflation Concerns - Although CPI and PCE data have not yet shown upward trends, soft indicators such as consumer inflation expectations and price indices in manufacturing and services have significantly increased, indicating future inflation risks [3]. - The large-scale "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump have been paused for 90 days, but the outlook remains unclear, negatively affecting business and consumer confidence [3]. Federal Reserve's Strategy - Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach, stating that the cost of waiting is currently the lowest, and highlighted the challenges posed by tariffs to the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [3][4]. - The Fed's independence is under threat, with external pressures from the Trump administration potentially impacting the credibility of the dollar [4]. - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have shifted from June to July, with projections for a total of three rate cuts remaining intact for the year [4].