行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（1月27日）再度收涨，开盘价5090.85美元/盎司，最高价5105.10美元/盎司，最低价4990.08美元/ 盎司，收盘价5091.19美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国参议院共和党领袖图恩表示，两党正在与白宫就美国政府的资金问题进行谈判。由于特朗普在明尼苏达州 采取的移民强硬措施引发公众强烈反弹，民主党人反对在没有新保障措施的情况下为国土安全部拨款，威胁要 迫使美国政府部分停摆。随着1月30日拨款截止日期的临近，几个机构的拨款可能成为这场争端的牺牲品。民 主党人要求将国土安全部从一项庞大的拨款法案中剔除，或者限制特朗普激进的移民和边境政策，以此作为他 们投票支持增加该机构拨款的条件。图恩表示，共和党人正在寻求一份民主党就移民执法提出的具体要求清 单，之后才会决定是否满足这些要求。 当地时间1月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，联邦政府在明尼苏达州的移民执法行动将适当降级、缓和，以应对 目前局势。同时他警告称，如果民主党在今年中期选举中获胜，可能会开始对他进行弹劾。 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为美元贬值幅度并不大，称美元"表现良好"，并预计货币价值会有波动。当记者问 他是否担心美元贬值，特朗普 ...

【资讯导读】 转自：新华财经 •特朗普称美元"表现良好" •美国政府部分停摆风险骤升 •日本财相重申与美协调立场 •美国1月消费者信心骤降至十年新低 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普回应美元贬值担忧时表示，美元"表现很好"，并认为其价值应回归"应有水平"。他虽 称自己有能力让美元"像悠悠球一样涨跌"，但将此类人为干预比作"雇佣无用工人粉饰就业数据"，视为 不利做法。同时，他批评日本试图压低本币汇率。 •因韩国尚未批准所谓"具有历史意义"的美韩贸易协议，特朗普宣布将对韩国汽车、木材、制药等关键 产品加征关税，税率由15%上调至25%，以施压首尔尽快通过协议。 •美国国会若未能在周五午夜前就剩余6项拨款法案达成协议，将触发新一轮政府部分停摆。尽管规模小 于去年秋季，但涉及约78%的联邦政府职能，关键公共服务面临中断风险。 •日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，将根据去年9月日美联合声明，在必要时与美方密切协作并采取适当措 施，但强调不会就具体外汇汇率水平发表评论，延续一贯谨慎立场。 •美国1月消费者信心指数环比大跌9.7点，跌至84.5，创下自2014年以来最低水平，反映民众对经济前景 的忧虑显著加剧。 •22:45 加拿大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, driven by a rebound in the yen and uncertainties surrounding a potential government shutdown, leading to a weaker dollar that has strengthened the euro and pound to their highest levels since 2021 [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Currency Movements - The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped 0.8%, falling below 1180 points, marking its lowest level since March 2022 [1][4]. - The USD/JPY pair decreased by 1% to 152.57, the lowest since October 30 [7]. - The euro rose by 0.9% to 1.1990, the highest since 2021, while the pound increased by 0.8% to 1.3791, also the strongest since 2021 [7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Concerns about potential government intervention in the currency market to support the yen and the rising likelihood of a government shutdown have intensified the dollar's downward trend, according to UBS strategist Vassili Serebriakov [1][4]. - The consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, as reported by the World Large Enterprises Association [4]. - The short-term options premium benefiting from the weaker dollar has expanded to the highest level since Bloomberg began collecting this data in 2011 [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with close attention on Chairman Powell's press conference following the policy decision [1][4]. - Japan's Finance Minister, after the G7 meeting, stated that they would coordinate closely with U.S. authorities to take appropriate action against currency fluctuations if necessary [7].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risks have led to a significant downturn in the U.S. markets, with a notable decline in major indices and a rise in bond yields, indicating a risk premium rather than a reflection of economic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices fell by 2.1%, 2.4%, and 1.8% respectively on January 20, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7 basis points [1]. - The U.S. dollar index weakened by 0.8%, highlighting a divergence between interest rates and exchange rates, suggesting that the rise in rates reflects risk premiums [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The immediate trigger for the market downturn was President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on several European countries, which escalated until a "framework for a future deal" regarding Greenland was established [2][3]. - Trump's long-standing interest in Greenland and the potential for tariffs on imports from Denmark and other European nations were central to the geopolitical tensions [2][3]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The Greenland dispute is viewed as a microcosm of broader U.S. national security strategy adjustments, which may lead to increased geopolitical tensions and affect global risk sentiment and capital flows [4][5]. - The current administration's "America First" approach may result in more conflicts with traditional allies, potentially undermining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5][12]. Group 4: Currency and Investment Outlook - The geopolitical risks are expected to increase the demand for hedging against the dollar, potentially leading to further depreciation of the currency [5][12]. - Recent data indicates that European investors have been selling U.S. assets, which could impact the long-term demand for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar's reserve status [12][17].

市场汇率方面，在岸离岸人民币对美元汇率走势不一。Wind数据显示，截至10:15，在岸人民币对美元 汇率报6.9640元，较前一交易日下跌12个基点；离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9610元，较前一交易日上涨 31个基点。 1月23日，人民币对美元汇率中间价大幅调升。中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布的数据显示， 当日，人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.9929元，较前一交易日调升90个基点。 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月22日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.0019元，1欧元对人民币8.1537元，100日元对人民币4.4112元，1港元对人民币0.89820 元，1英镑对人民币9.3657元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.7138元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0709元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4322元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.7678元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0408元，人民币1元对1.1472 澳门元，人民币1元对0.57886马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.0553俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3323南 非兰特，人民币1元对210.45韩元，人民币1元对0.52651阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53758沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.1610匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51669波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9168丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3066瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4300挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.20658土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5039墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4906泰铢。 (责任编辑：魏京婷) 中国经济网北京1月22日讯 ...

Group 1 - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is reported at 7.0006, an increase of 45 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to publish the interbank foreign exchange market rates, including 1 USD to 7.0006 RMB and 1 EUR to 8.1186 RMB [2] - The exchange rates for various currencies against the RMB are provided, including 100 JPY to 4.4087 RMB and 1 GBP to 9.3527 RMB, among others [2]

Core Insights - Citigroup has released its "2026 Global Investment Outlook," providing predictions for key market indicators in 2026 [1] Market Performance - Growth stocks are expected to continue performing well, with an anticipated return of approximately 17%, while the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks, which have relatively low valuations and cyclical resilience, are projected to yield a return of 21% [3] Monetary Policy - The U.S. monetary policy still has room for easing, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering the policy rate to below 2.5% by 2026; in contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at around 2% at least until 2027 [3] Inflation Trends - The overall consumer price index in the U.S. may approach zero growth in 2026, while core personal consumption expenditure inflation is expected to gradually decline; however, medium to long-term inflation risk premiums may still rise, indicating ongoing uncertainty regarding future inflation [3] Commodity Prices - The outlook for aluminum prices is positive, with a target range of $3,500 to $4,000 per ton; the natural gas market is facing supply pressures, with European TTF natural gas prices projected to be around €22 per megawatt-hour by 2027 [3] Foreign Exchange Market - The U.S. dollar is likely to remain relatively strong in the first half of 2026, with the euro to dollar exchange rate potentially falling to 1.1; in a relatively stable global risk environment, currencies with high interest rate differentials are expected to perform notably well [3]

Group 1 - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is reported at 7.0078, which represents a depreciation of 14 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to publish the exchange rates for various currencies against the RMB, including 1 Euro at 8.1067 RMB and 100 Japanese Yen at 4.4041 RMB [2] - The exchange rate for 1 Australian Dollar is set at 4.6745 RMB, while 1 New Zealand Dollar is at 4.0042 RMB [2]

Core Insights - The Brazilian Central Bank's first 2026 Focus Bulletin indicates stable market expectations regarding inflation, exchange rates, benchmark interest rates, and GDP growth [1] Group 1: Inflation and Exchange Rate - The inflation forecast for the end of 2026 has been slightly adjusted upwards to 4.06% [1] - The expected exchange rate for the US dollar against the Brazilian real at the end of 2026 is set at 5.50 BRL [1] Group 2: Benchmark Interest Rate - The benchmark interest rate (Selic) is projected to decrease from 15% at the end of 2025 to 12.25% by the end of 2026 [1]