Group 1 - The central point of the article highlights the recent strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with the midpoint rate reported at 7.0602, marking an increase of 54 points and reaching the highest level since October 9, 2024 [2] - The offshore yuan has also surpassed the 7.04 mark, indicating a positive trend in the currency's performance [2] Group 2 - In the short term, the yuan is expected to maintain a strong performance against the dollar, driven by a generally weak dollar environment and robust domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [5] - The outlook suggests that the yuan may continue to appreciate moderately until 2026 [5] Group 3 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 75.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 24.4% [6] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 43.5%, with a 47.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged, and a 9.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [6]

Core Viewpoint - The movement of gold this week will primarily depend on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar exchange rate [1] Group 1: Market Influences - If bond prices continue to decline or yields rise, it may exert pressure on low-yield and zero-yield assets like gold [1] - A rebound in the dollar this week could diminish gold's attractiveness, especially with a busy schedule of data releases and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Market focus is on the November non-farm payroll report to be released on Tuesday and consumer price data scheduled for Thursday [1]

Core Points - The central viewpoint of the news is the recent adjustment of the Chinese yuan (RMB) exchange rate against the US dollar, indicating a slight depreciation [1]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Data - The RMB to USD exchange rate midpoint is reported at 7.0656, which reflects a decrease of 18 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The People's Bank of China has authorized the publication of various exchange rates, including 1 USD to 7.0656 RMB, 1 EUR to 8.2855 RMB, and 100 JPY to 4.5303 RMB, among others [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has shown a continuous appreciation against the US Dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0753, marking a rise of 20 basis points from the previous day, indicating positive market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0638, appreciating by 55 points, with a trading volume exceeding 28.7 billion USD, reflecting increased market activity [1] - The offshore RMB also appreciated, closing at 7.0622, with the spread between onshore and offshore rates narrowing to 16 basis points, reducing opportunities for cross-border arbitrage [1] Group 2: Yearly Review - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, initially declining to 7.35 due to escalated US tariff strategies, but began to appreciate from October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.5% in the second half of the year [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 99.2, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating improved stability against a basket of currencies [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three main factors contribute to the strong performance of the RMB: 1. Decreasing inflation in the US, with a high probability (87.6%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, which could reduce depreciation pressure on the RMB [4] 2. Improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, with a narrowing decline in PPI, a return of manufacturing PMI to expansion, and a 3.8% month-on-month increase in exports [4] 3. Enhanced policy tools, including improved counter-cyclical adjustments and expanded pilot programs for cross-border trade settlements in local currencies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillation towards the end of the year, with a potential fluctuation center moving to between 7.05 and 7.10 [8] - The long-term outlook for the RMB remains optimistic, contingent on the effectiveness of domestic growth strategies and the pace of US monetary policy adjustments [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] - The onshore RMB reached a peak of 7.0550 against the USD, indicating a potential shift in the currency's trend [1] - The Chief Economist of China International Capital Corporation, Guan Tao, noted that various positive factors are accumulating, suggesting that the RMB may have exited its previous one-sided downward trend [1] Group 2 - Guan Tao stated that there is currently no significant imbalance in the RMB exchange rate from both theoretical and market perspectives [1] - Factors influencing the RMB's appreciation and depreciation are present simultaneously, with the prevailing factors determining the currency's movement [1] - Under the influence of positive factors, there is a possibility for the RMB to break the 7 level against the USD, although its stability at that level remains uncertain [1]

Core Points - The central viewpoint of the news is the recent depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reported at 7.0794 yuan per dollar, a decrease of 35 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The People's Bank of China has authorized the publication of the interbank foreign exchange market rates, with the yuan's exchange rates against various currencies detailed, including: - 1 USD = 7.0794 CNY - 1 EUR = 8.2113 CNY - 100 JPY = 4.5495 CNY - 1 HKD = 0.90880 CNY - 1 GBP = 9.3451 CNY - 1 AUD = 4.6292 CNY - 1 NZD = 4.0512 CNY - 1 SGD = 5.4576 CNY - 1 CHF = 8.7915 CNY - 1 CAD = 5.0539 CNY - 1 MOP = 1.1339 CNY - 1 MYR = 0.58373 CNY - 1 RUB = 10.9857 CNY - 1 ZAR = 2.4155 CNY - 1 KRW = 207.92 CNY - 1 AED = 0.51913 CNY - 1 SAR = 0.53051 CNY - 1 HUF = 46.3742 CNY - 1 PLN = 0.51484 CNY - 1 DKK = 0.9095 CNY - 1 SEK = 1.3363 CNY - 1 NOK = 1.4319 CNY - 1 TRY = 5.99926 CNY - 1 MXN = 2.5875 CNY - 1 THB = 4.5236 CNY [2].

中间价方面，12月1日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0759，调升30个基点，创2024年10月14日以来最高。 广发证券宏观团队指出，11月美元相对偏强，人民币的加快升值就更具内生性。背后的原因主要包括：一是10月底，中美双方在吉隆坡经贸磋商 就解决各自关切的经贸问题达成联合安排。中国出口环境的不确定性下降。二是10月28日发布的"十五五"规划建议稿再次明确"坚持以经济建设为 中心"及"中等发达国家"的目标；提出"居民消费率明显提高"、"以服务业为重点扩大市场准入和开放领域"；10月31日国家发改委表示"5000亿元 新型政策性金融工具资金已全部投放完毕，共支持2300多个项目，项目总投资约7万亿元"，海外对中国经济和人民币资产的中期和短期预期均更 为积极。三是11月人民币中间价处于偏强状态，中间价的信号对离岸汇率形成预期强化作用。11月24日，央行在香港招标发行450亿元两期中央银 行票据，离岸央票的发行亦有助于巩固人民币汇率趋势。四是四季度一般是企业季节性结汇的高峰，即企业会在年底前将外汇收入转换为人民 币。今年出口整体偏强，前10个月美元计价出口额同比增长5.3%，企业结汇需求本就较为集中。而今年四季度是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the news is the adjustment of the Chinese yuan (RMB) exchange rate against the US dollar, with the midpoint rate set at 7.0759, reflecting an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - As of December 1, 2025, the exchange rates for various currencies against the RMB are as follows: - 1 USD = 7.0759 RMB - 1 EUR = 8.2052 RMB - 100 JPY = 4.5331 RMB - 1 HKD = 0.90877 RMB - 1 GBP = 9.3616 RMB - 1 AUD = 4.6302 RMB - 1 NZD = 4.0535 RMB - 1 SGD = 5.4569 RMB - 1 CHF = 8.8013 RMB - 1 CAD = 5.0621 RMB - 1 MOP = 1.1343 RMB - 1 MYR = 0.58391 RMB - 1 RUB = 10.9581 RMB - 1 ZAR = 2.4199 RMB - 1 KRW = 207.50 RMB - 1 AED = 0.51934 RMB - 1 SAR = 0.53039 RMB - 1 HUF = 46.5104 RMB - 1 PLN = 0.51614 RMB - 1 DKK = 0.9103 RMB - 1 SEK = 1.3360 RMB - 1 NOK = 1.4302 RMB - 1 TRY = 6.00787 RMB - 1 MXN = 2.5854 RMB - 1 THB = 4.5432 RMB [2].

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 11月30日晚间， 海外"小作文"称， 美联储主席 鲍威尔 将在周一美国东部时间晚7点举行的 紧急会议上宣布辞职。 不过该"小道消息"只是在社交媒体上流传，并没有被主流媒体报道，尚 没有任何官方渠道或美 联储自身提供任何证据支持这一说法。而 该消息来自推特，推特上每个月鲍威尔都能辞职个几 次。 | 下午12:00 | 演讲 -- 主管监管的副主席米歇尔·W·鲍曼 | ব | | --- | --- | --- | | | 银行监管 | | | | 在佛罗里达州银行家协会领导力午餐会（线上）上 | | | 晚上8点 | 主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔致辞 | | | | ■◀ 观看直播 【 | | | | 迈克尔·博斯金和康多莉扎·赖斯就乔治·舒尔茨及其经济 | | | | 政策贡献发表简短讲话并进行小组讨论 | | | | 在加州斯坦福胡佛研究所乔治·P·舒尔茨纪念讲座系列： | | | | 乔治·舒尔茨与经济政策。 | | 另外， 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将在2026年5月15日结束，理事任期将在2028年1月31日结 束。近 ...

Core Viewpoint - There are unverified rumors circulating on social media that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will resign during an emergency meeting, but no mainstream media or official sources have confirmed this claim [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Powell is scheduled to speak at a lecture series at the Hoover Institution on December 4, which is not an emergency meeting as rumored [4] - Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman is set to end on May 15, 2026, and he has publicly stated he will not resign early [5] - Kevin Hassett, a White House economic advisor, expressed willingness to accept the position of Federal Reserve Chairman if nominated by Trump, indicating he is seen as a leading candidate [7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, with a probability of 85%-86% for a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [8] - The weakening job market and policy risk management are key factors driving the Fed's potential shift in policy direction [8] - The appointment of Hassett could lead to a more politically influenced Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the potential depreciation of the dollar [7]