Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decrease in the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) to 3.66% on December 11, down from 3.90% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate also declined to 3.64% on the same day, compared to 3.89% the day before [1] Group 1 - The SOFR decreased by 0.24 percentage points from the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate saw a reduction of 0.25 percentage points [1]

今日周五(12月12日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于63.69一线上方，今日开盘于63.51美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报63.69美元/盎司，上涨0.24%，最高触及63.93美元/盎司，最低下探62.89美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美国劳动力市场面临显着的下行风险，中央 银行不希望其政策抑制就业创造。从美联储公布的最新利率路径来看，决策层预计到2026年底的联邦基 金利率将降至3.4%，意味着未来一年仅有一次降息。 但根据CME FedWatch数据，市场认为未来一年至少两次降息的概率高达58%，明显偏向更宽松的方 向。 除此之外，持续的地缘政治不确定性，尤其是在俄罗斯与乌克兰和平协议谈判停滞的背景下，限制了银 价的下行空间，并有利于看涨交易者。 此外，交易者现在期待来自有影响力的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的讲话，以获得新的推动 力。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 如果涨势能延续，银价有望先冲到65美元/盎司，接下来还可能挑战69美元/盎司的关口——这个价位是 2025年10月银价下跌波段的261.8% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The Fed ended 2025 with continued interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points for the year. The policy focus shifted from concerns about inflation rebound to addressing employment downward pressure. The threshold for restarting rate cuts in 2026 is expected to increase, depending more on the pace of employment slowdown and the effectiveness of alleviating commodity inflation related to tariffs. [5][30] - The Fed's restart of RMP is expected to ease the previous liquidity tightening situation. However, internal disagreements among officials have intensified, and with key events such as the Fed chairmanship change and mid - term elections in 2026, the stability of monetary policy has decreased. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude in the first half of 2026, and changes in the second half may depend on the new chairman's policy orientation and the economic outlook due to fiscal expansion. [5][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate to 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, a cumulative 75 basis points, reducing the federal funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.75%. [4][7] - After the interest rate decision was announced, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 4.18%. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 99 points. During the press conference, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield turned downward, the U.S. stock rally continued to expand, the U.S. dollar index returned to around 98.5, COMEX gold first fell then rose, and crude oil prices declined. [8] 2. Interest Rate Statement - Focused on labor market pressure, policy outlook, and Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The description of the unemployment rate was changed to "the unemployment rate has risen as of September". The statement added the expression "the extent and timing" for future interest rate adjustments, last seen in December 2024, which may imply a higher threshold for future rate cuts. It also added that the committee believes the reserve balance has fallen to an adequate level and will buy short - term U.S. Treasuries as needed to maintain a continuous and adequate supply of reserves. [4][12][16] 3. Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for the next four years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for the following year and inflation forecasts for this and next year were slightly lowered. The December dot - plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in September. However, there is a high degree of dispersion among the 19 Fed officials providing forecasts, indicating significant disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut magnitude and increasing policy uncertainty. [18][19] 4. Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) - Core Purpose: To increase the bank system's reserve scale by purchasing short - term Treasuries and other assets, addressing the recent surge in funding prices. Since 2023, the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase tool ONRRP has dropped significantly to near zero, and the bank reserve scale has returned to the 2020 level. The Fed's long - term balance sheet reduction and the U.S. government shutdown have also drained short - term liquidity, with the SOFR remaining persistently higher than the EFFR since September 2025, with the spread reaching a maximum of 36 basis points. [2][20][22] - Bond - buying Operation: Starting from December 12, it plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. The subsequent purchase amount will be adjusted according to the reserve supply outlook and seasonal fluctuations. According to Powell, the neutral monthly purchase level may be between $20 billion and $25 billion. [2][22] - Historical Operation: The last time the Fed carried out RMP was in 2019. In mid - September 2019, the SOFR was nearly 300 basis points higher than the EFFR. The Fed announced the launch of RMP on October 11, 2019, buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion per month to maintain the reserve level at or above that of early September 2019. [2][22] - Comparison with QE: Unlike QE, which lowers long - term interest rates by buying long - term Treasuries and then reduces borrowing costs, RMP aims to replenish the bank system's reserves by buying short - term Treasuries, ensuring an adequate reserve scale without indicating a change in the monetary policy stance. [3][23] 5. Labor Market - Both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and employment data may overestimate the actual situation. From June to September 2025, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%. Since April, the average monthly non - farm employment increase was about 40,000, but after adjustment, it may actually have decreased by about 20,000 per month. The continuous and gradual cooling of the labor market might be the main reason for the continued rate cuts. [5][24] 6. Inflation - Non - tariff factors have made positive progress, and inflation caused by tariff factors may peak in the first quarter of 2026. It is maintained that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time rather than continuous. In September, the U.S. core CPI year - on - year decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, and the month - on - month growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Among sub - items, prices of tariff - sensitive goods such as clothing, furniture, and entertainment products increased month - on - month to varying degrees, while the housing rent in core services decreased, indicating a continued decline in service inflation, but the spill - over effect of commodity inflation caused by tariffs still exists. [5][27]

2026年利率路径的预测分歧尤为突出：2026年预测：在19位官员中，7人全年不降息(其中4人预计维持 不变，3人甚至认为应加息一次)，"不降或加息"阵营合计7人，占36.8%；而在鸽派一端，出现了点阵图 历史上从未有过的极端观点——1位官员认为2026年应累计降息6次，总降幅达到150个基点，与鹰派阵 营的观点形成鲜明对立。 此外，在2025年终利率的预测中，有6位官员选择了3.75%-4.00%的区间，这一预测区间明显高于本次会 议确定的3.50%-3.75%目标区间，相当于明确暗示"12月本不应进行本次降息"。 今日周四(12月11日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于14.128一线上方，今日开盘于13.748元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报14.182元/克，上涨3.19%，最高触及14.263元/克，最低下探13.654元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 作为美联储政策路径的重要指引，本次公布的点阵图呈现出"中值稳定、分布撕裂"的鲜明特征。 从整体中值路径来看，与9月会议的预测完全一致：2025年底联邦基金利率中值为3.6%、2026年底为 3.4%、2027年底为3.1%，长期 ...

新华财经北京12月11日电 美联储于周三（12月10日）宣布实施年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率目标 区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，同时表示将增加短期国债购买，美债收益率应声下跌。 美国财政部数据显示，10年期美债收益率10日下跌5个基点至4.13%，2年期美债收益率下跌7个基点至 3.54%。其余中短期美债收益率普遍下跌4-6个基点，超长端表现稍稳，收益率下跌2-3个基点。 美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 3.5%至3.75%之间，符合市场预期。这是美联储自今年9月以来连续第三次降息，也是美联储自2024年9 月启动本轮降息周期以来的第六次降息。 委员会在会后发表声明说，经济活动在温和扩张，新增就业今年放缓，失业率在9月升高，通胀在今年 早些时候走高后依然在一定程度上处于高位。美国经济前景面临的不确定性依然处于高位，就业市场下 行风险在最近几个月升高。 转自：新华财经 美联储还认为，储备金余额已降至充足水平，将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以长期维持充足的储备供 应。 据美联储主席鲍威尔介绍，首月购买规模将为400亿美元，且未来数月可 ...

美联储12月声明对失业率的表述从上次的"失业率小幅上升但到8月仍维持在低位"，改为"失业率截至9月有所上升"；增加未来降息"幅度和时机"表述， 被视为暗示未来降息门槛更高；增加表述"委员会认为准备金余额已降至充足水平，并将根据需要购买短期美国国债，以维持持续充足的准备金供应"。 本次会议有三张反对票，比10月多了一张，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比倾向于维持利率不变。 委员会力求长期内实现最大化就业和2%的通胀率。经济前景的不确定性仍处于较高水平。委员会密切关注可能影响其双重使命的风险因素，并判断就业下行风险 最近几个月有所上升。 美国总统特朗普今年9月任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰，再度投下反对票，与此前9月和10月会议一样，他认为应降息50个基点而非25个基点。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德与10月会议一样，再度投下反对票，他倾向于此次会议维持利率目标区间不变。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比加入了施密德，他倾向于此次会议维持利率目标区间不变。 为支持自身目标，并考虑到风险平衡的变化，委员会决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点，至 3.50% （3.75%） 至 3.75% （4%） 。在考虑对联邦 基金利率目标范围 ...

数据来源:美联储 美联储12月宣布降息25个基点,将联邦基金利率 目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%,符合市场"鹰派降 息"预期。 这是美联储2025年年内第三次降息,也是继今 年9月以来连续第三次降息,全年的累计降息幅 度就此达到75个基点。今年前八个月,该行一直 按兵不动,以等待评估关税及其他政策调整对 经济的影响。 0 2 美联储决议声明变动 要动同 雙动前 今年就业增长放 经济方面 今年就业增长放 | 变动前 | | 变动后 | | --- | --- | --- | | 今年就业增长放 经济方面 | | 今年就业增长放 | | 缓,失业率略有 | | 缓,失业率截至9 | | 上升,但截至 8 | | 月有所上升。 | | 月份仍保持在较 | | | | 低水平。 | | | | 委员会决定将联 | 决议方面 | 委员会决定将联 | | 邦基金利率目标 | | 邦基金利率目标 | | 区间下调 0.25 个 | | 区间下调 0.25 个 | | 百分点至 3.75% | | 百分点至 3.50% | | 至4%。 | | 至 3.75%。 | | 在考虑对联邦基 | | 在考虑对联邦基 | | 金 ...

美联储宣布再降息25个基点 三人投票反对 中新社纽约12月10日电 (记者 王帆)美国联邦储备委员会10日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点到3.5%至3.75%之间的水平。这是美联储今年以来第三次降息，决策过程中有三名官员投票反对。 美联储在为期两天的货币政策例会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动正以温和速度扩张。今年 以来，就业增长有所放缓，失业率在9月略有上升，近期指标也印证了这一趋势。通胀率自年初以来有 所上升，仍处于较高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济前景不确定性 仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并认为近几个月来就业形势的下行风险有所上升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.5%至3.75%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估最新数据、不断变化 的前景以及风险平衡。美联储认为，储备金余额已降至充足水平，将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以长 期维持充足的储备供应。 声明提到，此次利率决策过程有三人投票反对。其中，美联储理事米兰主张降息50个基点，堪萨斯城联 储银行行长 ...

美联储官员此前对美国关税政策对通胀的影响和12月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧，但美国就业市场数 据恶化推高降息预期。 美联储发布的经济预测摘要显示，与9月份相比，美联储官员对2025年-2028年美国经济增速预测中位数 均走高，对明年经济增速预测从1.8%提高至2.3%。美联储官员对今年和明年失业率的预测维持不变， 而对今年和明年通胀预期均小幅下调。 值得注意的是，美联储官员对今后三年联邦基金利率的预测维持不变，对明年利率水平的预测分布较为 分散。预测显示，今年和明年可能分别再降息25个基点，但美联储内部对继续降息的分歧较大。 新华财经纽约12月10日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布 将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75%。这一决定符合市场预期，也是美联储货币政策会议自9月 以来连续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，经济活动在温和扩张，新增就业今年放缓，失 业率在9月升高，通胀在今年早些时候走高后依然在一定程度上处于高位。美国经济前景面临的不确定 性依然处于高位，就业市场下行风险在最 ...

为支持自身目标，并考虑到风险平衡的变化，委员会决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25个百分点，至3.50%（3.75%）至3.75%（4%）。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标范围进一步 调整的幅度和时机方面，委员会将仔细评估未来的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡。（委 员会决定于12月1日结束其对持有证券总量的缩减。）委员会坚定承诺支持最大化就业，以 及让通胀回到其目标2%。 当地时间12月10日周三，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%至3.75%。 本次声明中，美联储对经济前景的表述较10月会议略有调整，但变化不大： 对于未来联邦基金利率目标范围的调整，美联储在12月的声明中增加了"幅度和时机"表述。 本次声明的一个重要变化是，美联储新增了表述"委员会认为准备金余额已降至充足水平，并将根据需 要购买短期美国国债，以维持持续充足的准备金供应"。这一点与美联储同日还宣布的将买短期美债400 亿美元是一致的。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美国国债购买规模在未来几个月内可能会维 持在较高水平。 值得注意的是，本次会议上，有三张反对票，比10月会议多了一张反对票，凸显美联储内部分歧： 声 ...