Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends of various futures on September 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, metal futures, energy futures, and chemical futures [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on September 18. IF2509 has resistance at 4580 and 4600 points, support at 4542 and 4497 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2976 and 2990 points, support at 2940 and 2924 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7300 and 7350 points, support at 7235 and 7165 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7600 and 7650 points, support at 7525 and 7462 points [2][20]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2512 contract is likely to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, support at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2512 contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, support at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2512 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 829.0 and 824.9 yuan/gram, resistance at 845.9 and 850.0 yuan/gram [3][43]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2512 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 10000 and 10090 yuan/kilogram, support at 9800 and 9710 yuan/kilogram [3][50]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 79500 and 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 and 80300 yuan/ton [3][54]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2511 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 20650 and 20600 yuan/ton, with resistance at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, and will attack resistance at 2989 and 3021 yuan/ton, with support at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2511 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 74800 and 75600 yuan/ton, support at 72700 and 72000 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3144 and 3127 yuan/ton, resistance at 3180 and 3200 yuan/ton [4][71]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3370 and 3355 yuan/ton, resistance at 3410 and 3420 yuan/ton [4][77]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 812 and 815 yuan/ton, support at 796 and 793 yuan/ton [4][79]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 1215 and 1201 yuan/ton, resistance at 1241 and 1259 yuan/ton [4][85]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1250 and 1270 yuan/ton, support at 1226 and 1212 yuan/ton [4][88]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1347 and 1358 yuan/ton, support at 1325 and 1314 yuan/ton [4][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 493 and 490 yuan/barrel, resistance at 503 and 504 yuan/barrel [4][99]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract is expected to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 4750 and 4778 yuan/ton, support at 4694 and 4682 yuan/ton [4][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 4934 and 4921 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5000 and 5036 yuan/ton [4][105]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 15590 and 15500 yuan/ton, with resistance at 15880 and 15910 yuan/ton [6][107]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year. The Fed also cut the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate by 25 basis points. The FOMC statement shows concerns about employment and inflation. The dot - plot indicates different expectations for future rate cuts among Fed officials [7][8]. - **Domestic Policies and Data**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption models, introduce a series of policies for service consumption, and carry out over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities during the consumption month, issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies. In the first eight months, China's general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure was 17.93 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year - on - year [10][11]. - **International News**: Canada's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Japan's central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. UK's CPI in August was flat at 3.8% year - on - year [12][13]. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Gold Market**: Hong Kong will take five measures to establish an international gold trading market, including expanding gold storage and establishing a central clearing system [13]. - **International Futures Market**: On September 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, international oil prices slightly declined, and most London base metals fell [14].

美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放 缓，就业增长放缓，通胀率有所上升。鉴于风险平衡变化，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点。 声明说，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间时，公开市场委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化 的经济前景及风险平衡。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后举行的新闻发布会上说，本次会议的注意力全部集中在就业市场上，"现在没 有无风险的途径"。一些人现在"很难找到工作"，降低利率将有利于帮助陷入困境的劳动力市场。 新华社纽约9月17日电 综述｜美联储年内首次降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 参加此次货币政策会议的美联储官员对2025年美国实际国内生产总值增长率的中位数预测值为1.6%， 对失业率的中位数预测值为4.5%，对通胀率的中位数预测值为3%。 美联储宣布降息后，美国股市当天收盘涨跌不一，美元指数大跌后反弹，金价震荡下跌。 富国银行投资 ...

人民财讯9月18日电，恒生指数开盘跌0.17%，恒生科技指数平开。消息面上，美国联邦储备委员会当 地时间17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%—4.25%之间，符合市场普遍预期。 ...

17 September 2025 | 2:44PM EDT USA: FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate 25bp; SEP Median Projects Three Cuts for 2025, One Each in 2026 and 2027 BOTTOM LINE: The FOMC lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4-4.25% at its September meeting. The post-meeting statement noted that "downside risks to employment have risen" even as inflation "has moved up." The Committee removed a previous reference to "the extent and timing" of additional fed funds rate cuts in the forward guidance portion of the stat ...

▲ 9月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会 。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 尽管美国通胀率有所上升，并维持在略高的水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联 储终于采取降息措施。近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放缓，就业增长放缓。经 济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。 据悉，联邦公开市场委员会是以11比1的投票结果通过降息25个基点决定的。刚刚就职 的 美 联 储 理 事 、 目 前 仍 担 任 白 宫 经 济 顾 问 委 员 会 主 席 的 斯 蒂 芬 · 米 兰 是 唯 一 持 不 同 意 见 者，他主张降息50个基点。 美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点 。 美国总统特朗普自今年1月上任以来持续施压美联储降息。 来源： 央视新闻，记者：刘旭 当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间 。 这 是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 编辑丨闫志强 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策例会后的记者会上表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，美联储需 要平衡"双重使命的两端"。被问及有新的理事成员加入，鲍威尔强调美联储将坚定致力于保持其独立 性。对于25个基点的降息幅度，他认为市场已经提前消化了预期，但此次降息非常重要，是对劳动力市 场的支持。 声明称，最近的指标表明美国上半年经济活动有所放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于低 位。通胀率有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济 前景不确定性仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并判断就业形势的下行风险已经上 升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4% 至4.25%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平 衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投票反对此次利率决策，主张将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调50个基点。 当天，美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，与6月时相比，美联储将今年的GDP增速预期中值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024, which has led to a slight decline in gold and silver futures prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate is aimed at addressing challenges in the labor market, as many individuals are currently struggling to find jobs [2][3] - The median forecast for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% by the end of this year, 3.4% by the end of 2026, and 3.1% by the end of 2027 [2] Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic outlook, predicting a median real GDP growth rate of 1.6% for this year, and 1.8% and 1.9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, which is an increase from previous forecasts [1] - The median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 4.3% in 2027, showing a slight improvement from earlier predictions [1]

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联 储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。联储自去年9月到12月连续三次会议降息，本周再度行动后，本轮宽松周期的合计降息降幅达125个基点。 本次会议的降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率约为96%，10月下次 会议继续降息的概率约为80%，12月进一步降息的概率接近74%。美国财长贝森特周二称，市场正在消化从现在到年底合计降息75个基点的预期。 在会后公布的会议声明中，美联储主要调整了就业方面的表述，特别提到就业下行的风险增加。更新的利率预期体现出，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次 数由6月公布的两次提高到三次，即在本周降息后，还会由两次25个基点的降息。 本次降息决议只有一名FOMC投票委员——特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰反对，至少目前看来，联储内部的降息分歧还没有出现两票反对的上次会议时大。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在联储会后发文称，对就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a slowdown in employment growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also indicating that inflation levels remain slightly elevated, leading to a decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% by 25 basis points [3]. - The decision reflects a more pessimistic view on the employment market compared to the previous meeting, with the acknowledgment of rising unemployment risks [3][6]. Changes in Statements - The Fed removed the phrase regarding the stability of the labor market and noted that employment growth has slowed [3][5]. - Inflation was mentioned as having increased, a change from the previous meeting where this trend was not highlighted [3][5]. Voting Dynamics - Stephen I. Miran was the only member to vote against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 [3][7]. - Other members, including those appointed by President Trump, supported the 25 basis point reduction, contrary to some pre-meeting expectations [3][4][7]. Economic Outlook - The committee aims for maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, while recognizing high levels of uncertainty in the economic outlook [6]. - The Fed will continue to monitor various factors, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to assess future monetary policy adjustments [6].

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]