美联储如市场所料继续降息行动，降息25基点，同时决定放弃量化紧缩（QT），一个月后结束缩减资产负债表（缩表）的计划。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的记者会上表示，通胀短期仍有上行压力，就业面临下行风险，目前面临的局面颇具挑战，委员会对12月是否再次降息仍存较大 分歧，降息并非板上钉钉。 FOMC某些成员认为，是时候暂停一下了。鲍威尔说，较高的关税正推动某些商品类别的价格上涨，从而导致整体通胀上升。 美联储祭出组合拳：继续降息25基点+12月结束缩表 美东时间10月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.00%至4.25%下调至3.75%至4.00%，降幅25个基点。在 上次会议今年内首次降息后，本次是联储一年来首次连续第二次FOMC会议降息。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降 息25基点的概率为91%。 这显示，市场已几乎完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提 高到三次。 美 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is ending the drawdown of its balance sheet due to tightening money market liquidity conditions and declining bank reserve levels [1][4] - Starting December 1, the Fed will roll over maturing Treasury securities instead of allowing up to $5 billion to mature each month without replacement, while continuing to allow up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to expire monthly but reinvesting proceeds into Treasury bills [2][3] - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet runoff was anticipated due to rising borrowing costs in short-term lending markets [5][6] Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed has reached a level of reserves consistent with ample conditions in money markets [4] - Recent developments suggest that the Fed has sufficient liquidity in the financial system to maintain control over interest rate targets while allowing for normal volatility in money market rates [7] Group 2 - The end of the balance sheet runoff occurred sooner than many market participants expected, with a prior survey indicating a first-quarter stopping date for quantitative tightening (QT) [8] - The Fed is cautious about removing too much liquidity from the system to avoid losing control of the fed funds rate, as experienced during the previous QT six years ago [9]

要点： 美联储连续两次降息25基点，行动符合市场预期。 美联储缩表持续三年半后告终，决定12月起以短期国债替代到期MBS持仓。 两名反对利率决议的FOMC票委中，特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰和上次会议一样主张降息 50基点，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德支持按兵不动。 声明重申"鉴于风险平衡已转变"决定降息，将"最近的"数据指标换为"可获得的"，新增指 出，劳动力市场近期指标与政府关门前趋势相符，称就业下行风险"近几个月增加"。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储继续努力防止近期就业放缓的趋势恶化，但经济数据缺失使未来利 率走向变得扑朔迷离。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储 本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降息25基点的概率为91%。这显示，市场已几乎 完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计 的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提高到三次。 和前两次会议一样，本次会上，美联储决策层依然没有就利率行动达成统一。包括美国总统特朗普"钦 点"的新任理事米兰在内，两名FOMC委员投票反对降息25个基点的决 ...

Core Points - The committee has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 2.75% to 4% [1] - Labor market conditions are gradually cooling, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact economic activity, but these effects are anticipated to reverse once the shutdown concludes [1] Economic Indicators - Data indicating a strengthening or stabilization of the labor market will influence future decisions regarding the federal funds rate [2] - There are differing opinions within the committee about the approach to take in December, indicating uncertainty about further rate reductions [2] - A reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed [2]

Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images Federal Reserve policy committee members, including Lisa Cook, voted to cut their influential fed funds rate Wednesday. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate today by a quarter of a percentage point, as widely expected. Fed officials aim to boost the faltering job market as concerns over inflation take a back seat to fears that unemployment could rise. The Federal Reserve has once again cut its benchmark interest rate, aiming to breathe ...

Core Points - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.31% on October 28, an increase from 4.27% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.12% on October 28, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

Core Insights - Nearly 80% of respondents believe that AI-related stock valuations are over 20% too high, expressing concerns about potential government shutdowns leading to data shortages and high inflation, as well as questioning political influences on Federal Reserve decisions [1] - 92% of respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the possibility of further cuts in the next two meetings, although there are significant doubts among 38 respondents, including economists, strategists, and fund managers [1] - Following this week's expected rate cut, 84% of respondents anticipate another cut in December, and 54% expect a third cut in January next year, with a total forecast of 100 basis points in cuts over the next two years, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.2% by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) increased to 4.27% on October 27, up from 4.24% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate rose to 4.21% on the same day, compared to 4.11% the day before [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rates** - SOFR reported at 4.27%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous day [1] - Effective federal funds rate at 4.21%, up by 0.10 percentage points from the prior day [1]

Core Insights - There are indications that a significant block trade occurred in the U.S. interest rate market, likely positioning for the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcement to end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy [1][2] - The trade involved 40,000 contracts expiring in November, betting that the average Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) will be less than 9 basis points above the expected federal funds rate [1] - Analysts suggest this trade marks a shift in trends observed this year, reflecting growing expectations that the Fed will announce the end of QT at its policy meeting [1][2] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade is essentially a bet that if the Fed announces a reduction in QT and implements a 25 basis point rate cut, the November SOFR will drop to 3.95% or lower, while the federal funds rate will be at least 3.86% [2] - This contrasts sharply with forward market expectations, where traders anticipated that by the end of November, SOFR would be 10 basis points higher than the federal funds rate, indicating tight repo financing conditions [2] - The scale of the trade suggests a significant interest rate risk exposure, equivalent to holding $2 billion to $3 billion in ten-year Treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2: Implications of Ending QT - Ending QT is expected to lead to lower repo rates, as the Fed will reinvest maturing securities, halting the decline in bank reserves and increasing system liquidity [3] - The recent rise in repo rates has been attributed to aggressive short-term Treasury issuance by the U.S. Treasury following the summer debt ceiling resolution, which increased demand for repo financing [3] - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may provide liquidity support through various means, including injecting reserves into the system [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Divergence - The unusual inversion in the U.S. interest rate market highlights a shift in power dynamics within the short-term financing market [5] - Not all market participants agree that the block trade is solely driven by expectations of ending QT; some believe it reflects a broader trend of valuation expansion, suggesting investors may be "de-risking" at high levels [5]

芝商所数据显示，上周四成交了一笔大宗交易，涉及4万份11月到期的合约，押注11月有担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）平均将比预期的联邦基金利率高出不到9个基点。这一交易标志着今年趋势的转变，反映出市场进一步预期美联储将在本周三政策会议结束时宣布缩表的终结。 ...